The day is here: Super Bowl 59. All considered, it's a bit of a chalky one, but that won't stop us from tuning in! And surely won't deter a couple billion from being wagered on it. Plenty to digest before the bets go in and the game begins, so let's start the breakdown:
Game Lines
Kansas City: -1.5 (-120)
Philadelphia: +1.5 (+100)
Over/Under: 48.5
KC Offense vs. Philly Defense
Anytime you've got Patrick Mahomes at the helm, you've got a chance, but especially in a year where the Chiefs have managed to surround him with a decent cast of playmakers. Travis Kelce's a playoff stalwart but Xavier Worthy's quickly establishing himself as a real weapon in this offense. Look for him to be involved in 2-3 bubble screens as KC tries to stave off a vicious interior pass rush from Jalen Carter. Kelce should be able to find a good bit of space over the middle of the field with Nakobe Dean absent from the Eagles' lineup.
Hollywood Brown and Deandre Hopkins aren't exactly guys you can leave uncovered either, with each offering different yet dangerous skillsets to round out the offense. And Juju Smith-Schuster reminded the world he's still in the league too, coming off a shockingly productive performance in their win over Buffalo. It's a truly diverse bunch of skill players for #15 to work with.
Fortunately for Philadelphia, they've got a stacked secondary to try and counter. Rookies Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper Dejean have helped Darius Slay rediscover his youth. Mitchell's a bona fide star, while Dejean's been rapidly ascending in the slot. They won't provide much room for error, but Mahomes will find it if and when they do.
Not expecting much from Isiah Pacheco or Kareem Hunt in this one. Kansas City's offensive line is going to be routinely overpowered, providing minimal room to work on the ground. Hunt's looked decent of late, but this is a tough assignment. Pacheco's explosiveness seemingly hasn't returned either, which doesn't bode well in this matchup.
Eagles Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
Last time Jalen Hurts found himself in a Super Bowl versus the Chiefs, he put together arguably the strongest performance of his career, completing 71.4% of his passes for 304 yards while adding 70 and three scores on the ground. Big time player showing up for a big time game. Not expecting any different here, though KC's corners will challenge him.
AJ Brown draws a slightly favorable matchup on the outside versus Jaylin Watson, while Devonta Smith and Jahan Dotson split time dealing with Trent McDuffie in the slot. Looking for Brown to have a pretty strong performance overall, with a yardage line currently set at 69.5. Nice. Dallas Goedert is the name to key on however, averaging over 4 receptions and 60 yards per in the four games since returning from a broken forearm. There wasn't a worse defense than Kansas City at covering the tight end this season.
And then there's Saquon Barkley. What more can you say about the Offensive Player of the Year than what's already been said? Explosiveness, vision, a three-down skillset, athleticism out the ying-yang. The dude's built different and has a line in front of him that gives him room to work. If Barkley can steer clear of Chris Jones, he'll have no reason not to pop tonight down in NOLA.
Special Teams and Intangibles
Both of these teams have been given sparks from big kick returns during this postseason, so don't be surprised to see somebody break a long one off at some point. Kansas City has a huge advantage in the kicking game, with Harrison Butker providing a much steadier presence throughout the year than Jake Elliott. In a matchup where points will be critical, the Eagles can't afford any missed PAT's.
On the coaching side of things, as much as we respect the villain-hero arc that bald Nick Sirianni has been on this season, the edge clearly goes to Andy Reid. The man is tested and true in moments like these and won't be blinded by the lights. Having a DC like Steve Spagnuolo certainly helps matters. Spags battling schemes with Kellen Moore should give us plenty to watch.
Prediction
Eagles 31- Chiefs 30
You never bet against the Chiefs right? Probably...but we're going to try and be bold today. Philly has a superior roster on virtually every level. They haven't lost a game that Jalen Hurts started (and finished) since September. They're going to be too physical defensively, particularly in the trenches. If this isn't the team to take down the dynasty, who will?
Hot take: Jake Elliott redemption game. After going just 1-7 on kicks over 50 yards this season, Elliott's going to walk it off with a bomb from 51, completing his story from scapegoat to legend, a la Sirianni. You heard it here first.
Our Favorite Prop Plays
-Total points over 48.5. The Eagles will be able to score and Patrick Mahomes won't be blown out. Don't be surprised if both teams finish in the 30's.
-Dallas Goedert over 49.5 receiving. Goedert's been on a tear since returning from injury, and with a date against the worst defense at covering tight ends in the league, no reason to think that'll be coming to an end.
-AJ Brown Anytime TD. Expecting a big game from AJ, topped off with a trip to pay dirt. Also leaning toward a Hurts touchdown over Barkley.
-Isiah Pacheco under 21.5 rushing. Unlike Dallas Goedert, Isiah Pacheco has looked bad since returning from his broken limb, really lacking the explosiveness he'd become known for. Kareem Hunt's seemingly taken over as the RB1, at least in the short term, but there won't be a ton of running lanes for either. Jalen Carter's going to eat that Chiefs' interior line.
-Patrick Mahomes over 28.5 rushing. Dude's known for making plays with his legs in the postseason and is going to be getting flushed out of the pocket all evening. Throw in the fact that they'll probably abandon an ineffective running game early; it wouldn't be shocking if #15 leads Kansas City in rushing.
-Travis Kelce over 60.5 receiving. There's no way Kelce's going to have back to back duds in the biggest games of the year. No Nakobe Dean should allow him to work easily over the middle, racking up a few chunk gains to put him over the line. Travis posted a 6/81/1 line the last time these two met in the Super Bowl, for whatever that's worth to you.
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, just our opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
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