Wildcard Weekend, what a time to be alive! A chance for heroes to be made, legacies tarnished-- the beginning of the road to the Lombardi. Week 18's dud of a slate hopefully helped prime us for a good first round of the playoffs, here's to hoping anyway:
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Houston Texans (Saturday 1/11)
Kicking things off in H-Town, where the Texans have managed to limp into the postseason despite a mountain of injuries and some pathetic displays of football. They're drawing a Chargers team that's been doing the exact opposite of late, winning by an average margin of 18 PPG since the return of their top running back JK Dobbins. Feels like a trend that's set to continue.
Justin Herbert's been clicking with Ladd McConkey more and more with each passing week, safety blanket Will Dissly is back healthy and even Quentin Johnston has reasserted himself in the offense. The defense is steady and their best asset is one that may not even play: head coach Jim Harbaugh. The man doesn't lose games like this, not to teams like the Texans.
A season with so much hope has quickly eroded in Houston, raising questions swirling about who CJ Stroud really is and if the Demeco Ryans/Bobby Slowik tandem is the one to get him back to form. It's been a remarkable sophomore slump, not aided by the losses of Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. Joe Mixon's been unproductive over the last month and a half, while the defense has regressed some as well.
Forgive my lack of enthusiasm regarding the Texans, but they've been a tremendous let down all season-- so why not end it on that same note here. Thinking it's a close game until the Chargers pull away in the second half, sending Houston into the offseason with their tails between their legs.
Favorite Bet: Chargers -2.5. They're playing much better and have a huge advantage in the coaching department.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) (Saturday 1/11)
I will be in attendance for this one on Saturday night, expecting frigid temperatures and possibly some precipitation. What a better time to have the King to lean on?
Seriously though, expect a heavy dose of the ground game for Baltimore in the absence of Zay Flowers. Justice Hill is back from injury and should reclaim his RB2 spot with no issue but look for Keaton Mitchell to provide a change of pace as well. But make no mistake, it's the Derrick Henry show this weekend. He's going to rack up no less than two dozen carries, helping salt away the Steelers defensive line as he goes. Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews will be the primary guys in the pass game, almost by default at this point.
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| Photo: Scott Taetsch/ Getty Images |
On the flip side, how can anybody feel confident in this Pittsburgh offense? Russell Wilson's completely reverted back to Denver form, Najee Harris is incapable of gaining more than three yards a carry and George Pickens will voluntarily take himself out of the game if you shut him down long enough. A good story from the beginning of the year has gone south for the winter-- and it looks like the end is near.
Many pundits are using the Ravens' most recent 17-point win in this rivalry as evidence for why this should be a blow out too, but let us not forget that game was tight until Marlon Humphrey's late pick six busted it open. Baltimore will not lose, but -9.5 may be a bit rich when push comes to shove. Maybe tease it town to -2.5 and throw in a prop or two. Liking the under too.
Favorite Bet: Derrick Henry over 100 rushing + TD.
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-9.5) (Sunday 1/12)
Moving to Sunday to wrap up the AFC side of this round, with the Broncos going up to Orchard Park to face the Bills. Bring your popcorn because this is looking like a good one.
Whether you believe Josh Allen is the MVP or not, the man is playing at that level, which'll carry over into this first round. The Denver defense is solid, particularly against the pass, but the Bills spread the ball around as good as anybody. And if nothings there, Allen's good to pickup a couple with his legs. Thinking the plan will be the feature James Cook as much as possible, but they'll lean on their star QB if the game stays tight.
Which is something Bo Nix is completely capable of accomplishing. The rookie quarterback has looked confident beyond his years (maybe a reason for that) as he powered the Broncos to the seventh seed. Courtland Sutton's his go to guy, but Marvin Mims Jr. and Devaughn Vele have been very involved of late. Whoever has the hot hand in the backfield could end up having some room to work against a suspect run defense-- something Nix will exploit a few times as well.
We'll probably all look back at this game Sunday afternoon and say there was no doubt Buffalo's the better team, but not expecting this to be a cakewalk. I'll take the Bills outright, but don't be surprised to see them sweat it out a little bit.
Favorite Bet: Over 47.5 points, especially with the weather looking clear.
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) (Sunday 11/12)
To the NFC side of things we go, starting out in the City of Brotherly Love. Jalen Hurts is back under center, which is surely an upgrade over Kenny Pickett or Tanner McKee, no matter what your thoughts on the QB. Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are good to go for Philly, but keep an eye on AJ Brown whose dealing with some knee ailments. The team says he's going to play, but how close he is to 100% remains to be seen.
Then of course, there's Saquon, rested and ready to roll after taking off week eighteen. The Packers are stout against the run, but this is a different kind of back we're talking about here. A big game from him would go a long way for the Eagles.
None of it may matter though, depending which Jordan Love shows up: the MVP-caliber player we've seen occasional glimpses of or the frustratingly mid-version we've gotten most of this season. Josh Jacobs has been a steady force behind Love, but no receiver has consistently stepped up for him. Jayden Reed will pop one week then go catchless the next, Romeo Doubs isn't that great, Christian Watson's back under the knife. Just a hard situation to fully invest in, particularly versus this elite Eagles defensive unit.
Green Bay is going to be a huge upset pick on many parlays this weekend, but they're simply not equipped enough across the board to handle everything Philly will throw at them. Has to be the Eagles in this one.
Favorite Bet: Dallas Goedert over 3.5 receptions. Green Bay doesn't defend tight ends well and AJ Brown won't be 100%. Goedert's cleared this number in three of his last four appearances and caught 4 passes week one versus the Packers.
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) (Sunday 11/12)
Really exciting draw here, especially this Jayden Daniels- Baker Mayfield matchup at QB. There should be fireworks between the two all evening.
Tampa Bay's secondary is hurt all over and they suck at covering tight ends, so expecting a nice outing for Zach Ertz and Terry McLaurin. Brian Robinson Jr.'s usage has been really mixed of late, so hard to get a read on him against a decent run stuffing unit. But the Commanders won't need much from Robinson with how well Daniels should be able to slice up this defense-- with his arm and legs.
It'll be up to Baker to keep up. Bucky Irving has run like a madman over the last few weeks and should have a ton of success against a soft front seven. Jalen McMillan has stepped up as a legit WR2 for Tampa recently as well, giving them another weapon in the passing game behind Mike Evans. Can't wait to see him square off with Marshon Lattimore with the season on the line.
All in all, probably the most exciting game on the wildcard slate. The over should definitely hit and let's go with the Commies on the road stealing the dub and continuing their magical turnaround.
Favorite Bet: Commanders straight up. Get on top of that plus money for a Washington team that matches up really well with the Bucs.
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at Los Angeles Rams (Monday 11/13)
Wrapping things up with a really interesting Monday night tussle in Arizona*. This game was moved to the desert on Thursday evening after it was concluded that the wildfire conditions in LA were too unsafe to play near. Sending our best wishes to all effected by that horrific, apocalyptic situation.
Circling back to the action though, probably the toughest of the six matchups to get a read on. The Vikings looked as good as any team in the league until a humbling defeat in Detroit last Sunday revealed some vulnerabilities. Will an underrated Rams defense be able to capitalize, or will Sam Darnold continue his incredible comeback journey?
Reestablishing his connection with Justin Jefferson will be a key part of that, as the two connected just thrice on nine targets a week ago. TJ Hockenson and Jordan Addison are solid weapons, but this offense really is at it's best with Jettas getting the rock. A nice outing from Aaron Jones to help open up the play action would go a long way, though he's been looking a bit worn down recently.
People (myself included) get so easily wrapped up in the names the Rams have: Stafford, Kupp, Nacua, Kyren Williams... It's a who's who. But outside of a Williams anytime touchdown, the results are so maddeningly inconsistent on the field. Sure, they put up 44 on Buffalo, but only averaged 16.3 PPG the rest of December, despite all the talent. More impressive is that that was a 5-0 stretch for LA.
Kupp and Puka should be able to put up some big yardage against this generous Minnesota secondary, but if Brian Flores can get the blitz home, temper expectations. Not thinking anybody runs away with this one or that it's even particularly exciting at many points. Just two teams most didn't expect to be here trying to prove that they belong.
Vikings win, while we fans try to will the over into existence. Too many good players for this game to be boring.
Favorite Bet: Cooper Kupp over 48.5 receiving yards. The last three games were shaky for Kupp, but this game should have a ton of yards and this number's way too low for a player of his caliber.
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, just our opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
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