To the divisional round we go, after a generally unexciting wildcard showing. The stakes are higher than ever for these eight teams, with only half set to move forward to the AFC and NFC Championship games. Who's it gonna be?!
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)
The weekend kicks off at Arrowhead with the upstart Texans coming in to square off versus the two-time defending champions.
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| Photo: Fox Sports |
Houston's riding high after dismantling the Chargers just seven days ago, led mainly by a ferocious defense, a steady dose of Joe Mixon and CJ Stroud actually connecting on a couple of passes. They'd be wise to take that same approach here as well, attempting to control the clock and keep the ball out of Mahomes' hands. Mixon's health will be a factor worth monitoring.
Nico Collins is going to need to have a huge game if they want to pull an upset, with a staunch set of corners across from him. Temper expectations there, but hammer some Dalton Schultz props. No defense allowed more yards to tight ends than KC, plus his backup Cade Stover just hit the IR, opening all the targets at the position for Schultz-- who caught 5 balls for 45 when these teams met last month.
Will it be enough to stop the inevitable one? Patrick Mahomes is in his element come January and has the added luxury of a fully healthy supporting cast. Marquise Brown's quickly reasserted himself in the passing game, while Xavier Worthy has been as dangerous as a gadget guy as he has a receiver. Throw in a potential Deandre Hopkins revenge game and playoff-Travis Kelce and it's hard to see how a defense could fully halt the Chiefs-- even one as talented as Houston's.
Not thinking this'll be a blowout, because Kansas City doesn't do that, but there won't be any rust vs. rest debate from this result. Take the under with some confidence and the Texans to cover, but Mahomes and Company will be hosting again next week.
Favorite Bet: Dalton Schultz over 37.5 receiving
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-9.5)
Fireworks. Expect all the fireworks in the Motor City this Saturday night, as reflected by the gaudy 55.5 points total. This is going to be a fun one.
No matter what the result of this game, it's been a season that's exceeded all expectations for Washington: from drafting #2 overall to a 12-5 record and an appearance in the divisional round-- with the Offensive Rookie of the Year under center. For the first time in decades, aside from the little blip of excitement RG3 provided, the future is so bright in DC.
Does Jayden Daniels have another heroic chapter in his first stint? He's been a part of five consecutive wins that've concluded on the final play, clearly showing that no moment has been too big for him, yet. He's going to connect with Terry McLaurin with relative ease against this mid-tier secondary, while sprinkling some targets to Olamide Zaccheaus and Dyami Brown.
In an odd statistic, Detroit's allowed the second fewest yards to running backs, but the fourth most rushing yards to QBs this year. Which indicates another dud for Brian Robinson Jr.-- and that much more on the shoulders of Daniels. Expect him to be up to the challenge.
It probably won't be enough though against this train of a Lions team. David Montgomery's back and healthy, rejoining Jahmyr Gibbs in the backfield against the third worst run D the league has to offer. Gibbs will post the bigger numbers, but it's a nice way to ease Monty back into action.
And when they're not rumbling on the ground, Jared Goff's going to carve them up through the air, particularly to Amon Ra St. Brown. In an odd tone of vengeance, he remembers Washington drafting Dyami Brown over him in the fourth round of the 2021 draft and is poised to put on a display to remind the team. Anticipating St. Brown finding pay dirt.
I have no faith in the world if this game doesn't hit the over. Realistically, Detroit could do it alone. Thinking they put up a 40-spot en route to victory...and a back door cover by Washington.
Favorite Bet: Jahmyr Gibbs over 83.5 rushing. Even with the Montgomery cutting into the workload some, Gibbs has shown he's a guy who needs the ball in his hands-- and does big things with it. He should easily clear this number. Also like an anytime ASB TD for -135.
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
Onto Sunday we go, starting out in the City of Brotherly love...unless you're sitting in front of Brian Caldwell. Yikes.
Could be equally tough for the Rams though. Traveling cross country is never fun, but when you have a defense like Philadelphia in wait, it can really put a damper on the trip. Puka Nacua's going to be peppered with targets, but they won't amount to too much. Cooper Kupp's been terrible the last month and a half, so can't depend on him, but last week's leading pass catcher Tyler Higbee is an interesting piece with Nakobe Dean not playing. Expecting Kyren Williams to be stifled much of the afternoon.
The Eagles have a monumentally high ceiling offensively, but it really boils down to which Jalen Hurts shows up. His numbers weren't bad against Green Bay, but nobody who watched that game would feel confident with how he looked in the pocket. LA's got an exploitable secondary if Hurts is able to clean things up. And he's got some guys to throw it to.
But it's going to be Saquon leading the way. I know it, you know it, the Rams know it, and it probably won't change a thing. Philly's offensive line is a force that's going to open holes left and right for the star running back-- who popped for 255 yards on 26 carries in these teams' first encounter. While he may not hit that high bar he set for himself, Barkley's going to easily pace this contest.
The Rams are a good story this season out of the NFC West, but the roster simply doesn't stack against Philadelphia, especially with how bad Matthew Stafford's been lately. Eagles win and cover.
Favorite Bet: Saquon Barkley over 100 + TD. Even with the Rams boasting a decent run defense, Barkley's going to be too much again. And after last week's little breakaway-slide debacle, he's due to reward bettors with an anytime score.
Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) at Buffalo Bills
Game of the week here! The two top MVP candidates going toe to toe for the right to go to the AFC Championship game. What a way to cap off a weekend.
Lamar Jackson's been a cheat code this year, throwing for a career high in passing yards and touchdowns while averaging 6.6 yards a rush and throwing just 4 interceptions. Madden numbers. He'll need to do it on Sunday without his top wideout Zay Flowers; something he showed he's more than capable of last week.
Jackson also put this on display during the Ravens 35-10 win over Buffalo in week four, where he and Zay only connected once for 10 yards. For Baltimore fans anxious about the lack of weaponry at receiver, the game plan has already been made and executed. Exhale and let's watch them work again.
Derrick Henry was a key component of that September whomping, racking up 199 yards and a score versus one of the more generous run defenses in the league. If Henry can replicate anything close to that stat line again, it's not going to be good for the Bills. And if they sell out on the King, look for Lamar to go back into his RPO bag. That shit was masterful last week.
But if you've got Josh Allen, you've got a chance. Especially in the playoffs. The man is a magician in crunch time, putting up some gaudy numbers historically in January. Baltimore's weakness is the perimeter corners, meaning it'll have to be Allen beating them with his arm.
Amari Cooper's solid, but is he the type of alpha that typically beats up Brandon Stephens? Khalil Shakir should see a lot of Marlon Humphrey, which doesn't bode well for his statistics, while Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid are pretty up and down. James Cook won't have much room to work on the ground either, forcing Buffalo to be one dimensional. Or Allen to single-handedly carry them.
Absolutely no guarantees in this one, but Baltimore really is a kryptonite matchup for the Bills. The frigid temperatures have me a bit cautious, but no reason Lamar Jackson doesn't take the Ravens back to the AFC Championship game. The over should hit too.
Favorite Bet: Josh Allen 2+ passing touchdowns. The Ravens are stout against the rush but not so much versus the pass, and with plenty of points to go around, this is good value at -120.
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, just our opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
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