Conference Championship weekend is upon us and it's a doozy. Two games featuring some heated rivalries to determine which two teams will be squaring off for the right to call themselves Super Bowl Champions. Clear your schedules Sunday afternoon because you won't want to miss this!
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5)
Shipping up to Philadelphia for the NFC Championship, featuring two NFC East franchises in very different spots. For the Eagles, moving to the championship round was almost an expectation given their stacked roster and pedigree. On the flip side, the Commanders are playing with house money as they continue to ride their phenomenal rookie QB further into the postseason-- and there's few things more dangerous than a team with nothing to lose.
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| Photo: Seth Wenig/ AP Photo |
Washington wouldn't be here without Jayden Daniels. The #2 pick has completely changed the locker room culture in just nine short months, turning a perennial loser into America's Sweetheart through his fearless and captivating play. Last time he faced off with Philly, he diced their vaunted defense for 339 total yards and 5 scores, setting his bar high for this third installment. With Quinyon Mitchell less than 100%, look for Daniels to once again be a difference maker in their upset bid.
Terry McLaurin will be a big part of the game plan once again, with the sixth-year wideout playing as productively as ever with JD under center. He knows the Eagles well and is going to find a some way to get open. Zach Ertz surely took note of Tyler Higbee beating up a Nakobe Dean-less defense last week to help prep for this revenge game. Disappointed with Brian Robinson Jr. of late though, really lacking the explosiveness we saw for the first half of the season. Don't be surprised to see a healthy timeshare between him and Austin Ekeler.
What can the Commanders do about Saquon Barkley though? The All-Pro racked up 296 yards in his two games against DC during the regular season and is running the ball as well as ever. The best Washington could hope to do is minimize the damage he inflicts, because their 30th ranked rush defense isn't going to stop him.
Jalen Hurts is a little less reliable however. He's been fine statistically in the playoffs but hasn't truly looked comfortable or confident when throwing the ball. With good weather and a full arsenal of weapons at his disposal, there's no excuse for it not to click here, even against Washington's underrated secondary.
Love the over here, that feels like a lock with these two offensive powerhouses. The Commanders will struggle to stop the run, which'll really help Philly control the clock and ultimately salt this game away. Washington covers in an tight Eagles victory.
Favorite Bet: Over 47.5. As mentioned above, points should be a plenty, even with a run heavy approach. Thinking we could see both teams in the 30's. Also love Zach Ertz to clear 3.5 receptions against his former team. The loss of Nakobe Dean should give Jayden Daniels' safety blanket ample room to work underneath.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)
Stop me if you've heard this one before, but the road to the Super Bowl runs through Arrowhead. Just another year in the AFC.
This is a different look Chiefs team though, with Patrick Mahomes coming off his worst-ever statistical campaign. Despite the slight downturn in play by #15, KC still went 15-2, so no need to panic about their capabilities, but this is a tough matchup for them. Their interior line won't be able to create a lot of running room against Ed Oliver, while Orlando Brown and Jawaan "False Start" Taylor struggle with the speed rush on the outside. Mahomes could lead the team in rushing.
But he'll find his guy Travis Kelce, you can bet on that. The man lives for playoff football and should have no problem getting his tonight. Xavier Worthy draws a tough matchup on the perimeter, but Andy Reid will certainly find a way to scheme him into the mix. Hollywood Brown and Deandre Hopkins are much less reliable.
Is Josh Allen finally ready for his moment? After managing to just hold off Baltimore a week ago, Buffalo's QB gets another shot at taking down his rival in red.
Allen's favorite target Khalil Shakir won't have an easy go of things with Trent McDuffie opposite of him in the slot, but expect Joe Brady to move him around sets to create space. Not anticipating big days for any other Bills wideouts, outside of the occasional splash play. For what it's worth, Curtis Samuel seems to be commanding an uptick in looks recently, while Dalton Kincaid should be able to get loose against the worst tight end defense in the league.
Running back James Cook was bottled up in the first game between these two teams, taking 9 carries for just 20 yards. For gambling purposes, he's far too unreliable to put much weight into here, particularly against Chris Jones and this stout front seven. And given the Bills' penchant for getting away from the ground game in big games, look for Allen to also lead the way in rushing.
As of recording on Wednesday, I was all the way in on Buffalo and the over. Since then, my brain's been screaming under and KC. This'll be a dogfight either way, with the Chiefs inevitably emerging victorious.
Favorite Bet: Dalton Kincaid over 32.5 yards. Feel free to tease that up to over 40 receiving too for some + money action. The Chiefs can't cover tight ends and the Bills have a good, albeit underutilized, one. He missed the first go round between these two teams, allowing backup Dawson Knox to catch 4 for 40. Kincaid's over is a lock here.
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, just our opinions. Consider at your own risk
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