Happy Sunday y'all, hope your Thanksgivings were grand. We decided to take off the podcast and our preview for the Thursday/Friday games in order to enjoy ours, so no usual insight into the games past-- but the present is here and now. And Monday night's game too, we'll make sure to get that.
Either way...
Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) at Atlanta Falcons
To Atlanta we go for the start of our one o'clock games. The Falcons haven't looked good over their last ten quarters, getting outscored 69-36 and taking two losses. As a result, their NFC South grip has quickly weakened, making this game crucial to their playoff push. Kirk Cousins should be able to throw some against a slightly overhyped secondary; look for Drake London to be his go-to. Bijan Robinson will also be plenty busy, though not expecting any major breakout.
On the flip side, LA's coming off a short week and an ass-kicking at the hands of the Ravens. You better believe Jim Harbaugh's got them fired up to get back on track. Justin Herbert was particularly off in that Monday Night loss, spelling a nice bounce back for him versus a generous bunch of corners. Gus Edwards gets lead dog duty in the backfield versus this soft front seven and could be in for a respectable day. Thinking we see Hassan Haskins mixed in on early downs some with Kimani Vidal making some third down appearances.
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| Photo: Brandon Sloter/ Getty Images |
Feels like more of a must win for Atlanta than the Chargers, but that doesn't always mean they get it done. LA's playing well offensively and should have no problem carrying that across the country. Let's take them to get the win, cashing the over in the process. Should be a fun game if the Falcons don't dick around too much.
Fantasy Starts: Ladd McConkey, Justin Herbert, Drake London
Fantasy Sits: Gus Edwards
Sleepers: Kimani Vidal
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)
To the AFC North we go for a bitter matchup between two long-time rivals. The Steelers got put on notice by Cleveland last Thursday, dropping a wonky one in the snow. they should be reenergized for the opportunity to formally conclude Cincy's season.
Russell Wilson needs to show that his recent regression was just a blip, not a cause for concern, and a weak secondary across from him is as good a chance as any. George Pickens will continue to be his primary target, but look for Mike Williams' involvement to ramp up. Najee Harris should also be busy and productive, taking advantage of the void Sheldon Rankins' absence creates.
Can they keep up with Joe Shiesty though? He can be a little hot-and-cold, but when he's on...shew! Pittsburgh does a great job at preventing big plays, so Burrow will need to be more methodical and patient in his approach. Chase Brown will be heavily featured, but thinking he'll have more success in the short pass game than the run.
Mike Tomlin has to be salivating at the thought of putting one more dagger into the Bengals season. The Steelers are going to control the clock and force a few mistakes, pulling an ugly one out while just squeaking the under.
Fantasy Starts: Najee Harris, George Pickens
Fantasy Sits: Tee Higgins
Sleepers: Calvin Austin
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
Put up or shut up time Arizona. Crazy how this time last week, they were atop the NFC West and coming off a bye with the chance to really cement that positioning. Than they got smoked by the Seahawks, looking completely hapless in the process.
Brian Flores surely has crunched that tape and wants to send a similar attack at Kyler Murray and Co. The Cards could not run the ball in Seattle, which ultimately helped suffocate the rest of the offense. Minnesota's historically strong rush D isn't going to make that easier, so don't be surprised if this script goes similarly.
Arizona's defense has been a strong unit in their own right however and won't allow Sam Darnold to have too easy an afternoon. Aaron Jones looked back to form last week and will hope to have an encore performance. If he can get going to lighten Darnold's load and open up the play action, look out.
Have gotten pretty high on the Vikes while typing up this column, so leaning on them to get it done here and cover. Shouldn't be a particularly fun game; nice chess match between two good coaches.
Fantasy Starts: Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson
Fantasy Sits: James Conner
Sleepers: Trey Benson
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at New England Patriots
Two teams that we really want to be excited over, but that simply aren't that good. And it's been tested and proven at this point.
Both running backs should be able to shine against front sevens that aren't particularly stout against the rush. Thinking Jonathan Taylor has the upper hand, but he's looked tired in recent weeks. A dud here would be a red flag.
Anthony Richardson will likely need to beat the Patriots with his arm, as they're allowing the second fewest yards to quarterbacks on the ground. Hard to trust him to do that, though he's usually good for a splash play or two. Drake Maye should be able to attack through the air-- whether his receivers actually catch it is another question. Prime spot for him.
As much appeal as some of New England's guys have, my gut's just saying Indy. They've got a teeny bit more to play for, keeping their slim playoff chances alive. Feeling good about this over too, two bad defenses.
Fantasy Starts: Rhamondre Stevenson, Jonathan Taylor, Drake Maye, Hunter Henry
Fantasy Sits: Alec Pierce
Sleepers: Kendrick Bourne, Antonio Gibson
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at New York Jets
Kind of feels like a gross one. Two banged up offensive lines trying to create some push to run the ball. Two quarterbacks that don't inspire overwhelming confidence-- or none in Aaron Rodgers' case. Two really strong receiving cores.
Pretty similar teams overall, with a big advantage for Seattle in the coaching category. That alone should get them the nod here, with Mike MacDonald scheming up an aggressive defense to overwhelm the Jets' 40-year-old quarterback. If they can contain Breece Hall like they did James Conner a week ago, it's going to be ugly for Gang Green in a hurry.
Seahawks steal a missable road game, strengthening their grip on the NFC West.
Fantasy Starts: Breece Hall, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Fantasy Sits: Davante Adams
Sleepers: Zach Charbonnet
Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders (-5.5)
Gut check moment for these Washington Commanders: are they the team that stormed out to 7-2 or the losing dumpster fire we've seen the last three weeks?
At a time when they need a win the most, they draw arguably the toughest bad team the league has to offer. The Titans are 3-8, but they hit you in the mouth defensively and don't quit on offense. Brian Robinson Jr. won't be able to wiggle out much yardage on the ground, which'll put the ball more into the hands of Jayden Daniels. He should be able to pick up some with his legs, but he needs his receivers to catch the ball when he gets it to them.
Wild card Will Levis should be fun. He's played with confidence since returning from injury, creating a strong bond with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine while connecting with Calvin Ridley pretty routinely as well. Washington's secondary had been playing better, but after Cooper Rush diced them up a week ago, it's hard to trust them. Tony Pollard will also continue his hot streak on the ground.
Not putting the mortgage on it, but Tennessee is worth a long look. Jayden Daniels doesn't have DC's offense looking good and the Titans' can muck things up with the best of them. Let me get the road dogs here!
Fantasy Starts: Tony Pollard, Jayden Daniels
Fantasy Sits: Zach Ertz
Sleepers: Will Levis
Houston Texans (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Two teams playing awful football right now. Houston's damn near unwatchable, even with Nico Collins back. CJ Stroud is regressing hard, their offensive line can't pass block and the defense is even starting to fade. The Jags can't defend the pass, so this is a moment for Stroud to get things straightened out. If not, start really sounding the alarms.
Jacksonville should have a puncher's chance today with Trevor Lawrence set to return under center. We're not exactly high on the former #1 pick, but he's an indisputable upgrade from Mac Jones. He'll be looking for Brian Thomas Jr. early and often, but Evan Engram may have tougher sledding against a defense that defends the tight end well.
Almost a must-win for morale alone for Houston. This'll likely be sketchier than they'd prefer, but let's have the Texans take it home.
Fantasy Starts: Joe Mixon, Brian Thomas Jr.
Fantasy Sits: Evan Engram
Sleepers: Parker Washington
Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) at New Orleans Saints
Four o'clock games, starting out in the City of Easy Living with two teams holding onto playoff hopes by the skin of their teeth.
The Rams offense should be firing on all cylinders, but it's been a clunky three weeks for them. Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp fill up box scores, but that hasn't been translating to points consistently, nor wins. Touchdown machine Kyren Williams has only found pay dirt once during that span, contributing to the lower scoring totals. Won't be a cake walk for them versus a fired up Saints group.
Truly a roller coaster of a season down in New Orleans, currently sandwiching seven losses between two two-game win streaks. Against all odds, they're still not out of it in the NFC South, so they'll be in hot pursuit of a win. Alvin Kamara should be heavily featured, in the pass and run game. Taysom Hill should receive a nice complementary load as well. Derek Carr just has to hit a few short completions and avoid turnovers...
Which he's usually pretty good at! Fans of the Saints here as home dogs. They're playing well under interim coach Anthony Rizzi and the Rams feel like they're fading. Thinking a back door over, but 49.5 is a tad high.
Fantasy Starts: Alvin Kamara, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua
Fantasy Sits: Matthew Stafford
Sleepers: Davis Allen
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5) at Carolina Panthers
Speaking of NFC South, Tampa Bay appears to be the most dangerous group in the division. Unfortunately for them, they're 0-2 against Atlanta, so they'll have to really pull one over on the Dirty Birds to capture the crown. A date in Carolina should help with that task.
Baker Mayfield was thrilled to have Mike Evans back last week and quickly got to work against an outmatched Giants secondary. Expect the same here, with Evans averaging 78 yards a game versus Carolina in his extended career. Cade Otton will have a few plays against the 5th worst defense vs. tight ends and Bucky Irving should continue his ascension to the RB1. Brilliant matchup for Tampa.
But can't count out Bryce Young, who's put together a competent stretch of games recently. Adam Thielen's return helps Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker get more winnable matchups, though the loss of Ja'Tavion Sanders will be felt. Chuba Hubbard is a monster, but this is a tough front seven.
Love how the Panthers have been battling of late, but the Bucs is on a tear. It'll probably be competitive at points, but a superior Tampa team will pull away late. Over should cash too.
Fantasy Starts: Mike Evans, Cade Otton, Bucky Irving, Adam Thielen
Fantasy Sits: Chuba Hubbard
Sleepers: Tommy Tremble
Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
Game of the week, on a personal and professional level. Seriously, how can this matchup not deliver?
Lamar Jackson has been stringing together an MVP-caliber season for Baltimore but gets a staunch opponent in Philly's D. Whichever receiver is opposite of Quinyon Mitchell will be clamped, so temper expectations for Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman. Feels like a game that their tight ends will be relied upon, as well as the run game. The Eagles are good against the rush, but not unbeatable.
The return of Roquan Smith will be huge for the Ravens' attempts at stopping Saquon Barkley. The phenom running back has been pretty matchup proof, but Baltimore's front seven is up for the challenge. Slowing AJ Brown and Devonta Smith is a much less inviting proposition, especially with Kyle Van Noy not in the lineup to get after Jalen Hurts. Could be a big day through the air for the Eagles.
The NFL can surely thank the Ravens for delivering entertainment thus far in their prime matchups. This should be no different. Hammer the over confidently. Take Baltimore boldly.
Fantasy Starts: Lamar Jackson, Dallas Goedert, AJ Brown
Fantasy Sits: Zay Flowers
Sleepers: Justice Hill
San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills (-5.5)
Sunday night in Orchard Park and it's gonna to be rockin'.
The disheveled Niners are coming to town, beaten down and distraught as their seasons been knocked off the rails. In a nearly must win game, they get one of the best teams the league could throw at them. Brock Purdy's health will be worth monitoring because it wasn't good with Brandon Allen out there last week. Christian McCaffery should have some room to run against an iffy rushing defense, but it wouldn't surprise anyone to see Buffalo sell out against that.
Josh Allen has the Bills humming offensively, scoring 30 or more in five straight outings. After seeing what Josh Jacobs and Jordan Love did to San Francisco, there's no way Allen doesn't top that number again. Cook should receive a nice workload, opening up things through the air for his quarterback. Keon Coleman could possibly be back in the mix too, giving Buffalo their full array of receivers. Dawson Knox will fill in for the injured Dalton Kincaid, and is likely to be shut down by Fred Warner.
Really hard to trust the 49ers right now, especially against such a motivated opponent. If Purdy plays, hit the over for the game and take the Bills money line. If it's Allen again, hammer the Bills spread and team over.
Fantasy Starts: James Cook, Josh Allen, Christian McCaffery
Fantasy Sits: Dawson Knox, Deebo Samuel
Sleepers: Keon Coleman
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (-6.5)
Closing out the week with a fun tussle in the Mile High. It'll be the first time Jerry Jeudy returns to Denver after being traded to the Browns this offseason. With Cedric Tillman ruled out, Jeudy will be getting targeted anytime Patrick Surtain II isn't across from him. Nick Chubb will get some volume and a little room to work, but don't set the bar too high for him.
Bo Nix keeps resetting the bar for himself. The last few weeks have been tremendous for the twelfth overall pick, dicing opposing defenses while ascending into the OROY conversations. Courtland Sutton's been his go to guy, which won't be changing tomorrow night. Javonte Williams will likely lead the way against a porous front seven, but you never know with the Broncos.
Should be a relatively easy win for Denver. Jameis Winston's coming off a win and rarely strings together good performances. Plus he's due for a few turnovers against a strong secondary. Broncos win, staying in the wild card chase.
Fantasy Starts: Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy
Fantasy Sits: Nick Chubb
Sleepers: Denver Defense
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@Choppinglines
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