Week 14 here we come! Last week of the fantasy regular season, as well as the final slate that'll feature byes. Needless to say, there's a few tasty dogs and sleeper's who'll help deliver your football dreams this weekend. Let's talk about just who those might be:
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-3.5) (Thursday 12/5)
On paper, this might be the game of the year up to this point. The implications not just for the division, but for the NFC as a whole could be astronomical. Get your popcorn ready.
Detroit's been a juggernaut all season, but they're starting to encounter more and more injuries, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Jordan Love's managed to not throw an interception over the last two weeks, which has helped the Packers offense raise it's efficiency and effectiveness. Josh Jacobs has been a key part of that, though this top ranked Lions D won't make it easy for him Thursday. Looks like Romeo Doubs will miss this one with a concussion, so expect a lot of action for Jayden Reed with some plays schemed up for Christian Watson.
Should be fun to see how Jared Goff and Co. counter this attack. He was highly efficient in their ten-point win over Green Bay a month ago, missing on just four passes while mainly relying on his backs to sustain the large lead they built at half time. This Packers' defense has been much better since, so anticipating that it'll require a little more effort this go round. Jameson Williams didn't play in that first matchup either, which'll give Goff another perimeter option against a secondary missing some key starters.
The over's probably the most safe play here betting wise. Both offenses have looked sharp while the Lions have lost a few key guys on the opposite side of the ball. Not thinking it'll be anything like their low scoring game last month and will take the Packers +3.5.
Fantasy Starts: Amon Ra St. Brown, Jayden Reed, Jahmyr Gibbs
Fantasy Sits: Josh Jacobs
Sleepers: Tim Patrick
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
A highly missable AFC South tussle to kick off our Sunday 1 PM block: Mac Jones vs. Will Levis.
Woof.
Tony Pollard should be due for a bounce back after Washington's defense smothered him last week. That should help open things up for Levis too, not that the pitiful Jags secondary should impede him much. Calvin Ridley's going to have a nice afternoon and don't be surprised if Nick Westbrook-Ikhine finds the end zone once again.
Mac Jones will be at the helm for Jacksonville, who surprisingly tore the Texans up in their near-comeback. Something tells me he doesn't have that in him again, but they might have a short field or two to work with given how horrible the Titans special teams have been. Brian Thomas Jr.'s probably your only worthwhile fantasy play.
Tennessee really shouldn't have any issues with this shell of a Jaguars team, so go Titans at home and the under too. Feel free to check the box score sometime after 4:30, you won't really want to be watching much of this one.
Fantasy Starts: Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard, Brian Thomas Jr.
Fantasy Sits: Travis Etienne Jr.
Sleepers: Parker Washington, Jaguars Defense
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-6.5)
The Jets travel down to South Beach without the services of their star back Breece Hall, who'll be sitting out due to knee swelling, putting the rest of his lost year into jeopardy. That'll open the door for Braelon Allen, who should be able to churn out some yards if the game script permits. Hard to put any faith into Aaron Rodgers and this aerial attack, who've looked surprisingly worse and worse as the season wanes on. Can't imagine quiet, spiteful tension in that locker room.
Hard to hammer the Dolphins though because whose to say last week's ass kicking in Green Bay didn't make a few guys quit. A return to warm weather definitely helps matters, particularly for Mike McDaniel. Devon Achane will rack up yards with ease and Tua should have no problem picking apart a Sauce-less secondary.
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Miami feels like as safe a play as you're going to get this week. They should cover as well, while squeaking out an over.
Fantasy Starts: Devon Achane, Tua Tagovailoa
Fantasy Sits: Aaron Rodgers
Sleepers: Isaiah Davis
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)
Kirk Cousins revenge game? It'd be quite a moment for it, as the veteran's in the midst of one of the worst stretches he's ever endured. Truth be told, it feels more likely that he'll get benched at some point here for Michael Penix Jr. Brian Flores and this Minnesota defense are going to blitz the piss out of the immobile QB, which'll surely force a bad decision or two. If things get out of hand, look for Raheem Morris to pull the plug.
That being said, Drake London will rack up some yards, as should Darnell Mooney, but tough spot for Bijan Robinson versus a D that suffocates opposing backs. Not doubting the kid, just a brutal matchup.
Can't say Sam Darnold will be dealing with the same level of difficulty. Atlanta sucks defensively, at all levels. People will be open downfield for Darnold and he will have time in the pocket. They should even be able to run the ball a little bit-- though Aaron Jones needs to hold onto it. A lot to love about what the Vikings are going to bring to the table here.
Which is why we're taking them! Can't guarantee a cover, but they should overpower both Atlanta units by the time the clock hits zeros. The total points is a tough call with Kirk playing the way he has, but the Vikings should cover their team score at least.
Fantasy Starts: Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison
Fantasy Sits: Tyler Allgeier, Kyle Pitts
Sleepers: Cam Akers
New Orleans Saints (-4.5) at New York Giants
Another dud here...let's fly through.
Alvin Kamara's going to rack up a ton of yards, especially now that Taysom Hill's hit the IR. He might even sniff the end zone! Juwan Johnson should inherit some extra looks but the G-Men defend the position well. MVS will probably nab at least one bomb.
Drew Lock is bad. Malik Nabers is really unfortunate. Tyrone Tracy Jr. should be productive as long as the game is close. Can't imagine being too thrilled about being a Giants fan.
Saints win with minimal issue. New York could cover, but after watching the Cowboys manhandle them on Thanksgiving, it's hard to see it. Safe under too.
Fantasy Starts: Alvin Kamara, Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Fantasy Sits: Wan'Dale Robinson
Sleepers: Jamaal Williams
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-13.5)
Hear me out, this'll be kind of a fun game. Or perhaps we're delirious from the slew of stinkers above. Either way, the Eagles offense should be able to do whatever they want to Carolina, particularly on the ground. This'll be a big stat line for Saquon's push for 2K. Dallas Goedert's freshly on the IR, opening up more looks for AJ Brown and Devonta Smith-- freshly back from an injury of his own.
That means it's the Panthers' job to keep up! Bryce Young has appeared up for the challenge in recent weeks, but this is a tall order for the kid. Adam Thielen and Xavier Leggette seem to be a solid 1-2, but one of them will be seeing Quinyon Mitchell on any given play. Tough. Chuba Hubbard should be fed regularly to try and control the clock and could find some success early on. Expect it to wane as the game goes though.
Thinking 13.5 is a little steep given how solid Carolina has looked of late. They're playing with a lot more pride than some of the other bottom feeders in the league. But the Eagles win and hit what feels like a layup of an over.
Fantasy Starts: Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, Adam Thielen
Fantasy Sits: Tommy Tremble
Sleepers: Kenneth Gainwell
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)
Classic AFC North battle between two teams that just don't like each other very much-- ask George Pickens and Greg Newsome II.
No snow in the forecast for this one! In fact, it should be optimal conditions for Russell Wilson and his passing attack to go at a flailing Browns secondary. George Pickens will continue to produce effectively, most likely being intentionally targeted in the end zone a couple of times. Calvin Austin's been a growing favorite of Russ lately too, so don't sleep on him.
Najee Harris should be able to pace things on the ground, but Jaylen Warren has looked more explosive. Curious to see that timeshare moving forward.
Anytime Jameis is out there, points are a hot commodity. Whether they come from bombs or pick sixes though remains the mystery. He'll be without Cedric Tillman once again, which doesn't help matters, but he's shown that Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore can do more than enough. David Njoku is ole reliable as well. Speaking of which, expect a nice workload for Nick Chubb with not too much to show for it against this Steelers' front seven.
As mentioned above, points should be scored. Outside of Myles Garrett, Cleveland's defense isn't very good and the Steelers are playing with a little heat right now. But Winston's a gamer, so let's take the Browns to cover while we're on the record.
Fantasy Starts: Jaylen Warren, George Pickens, Jerry Jeudy
Fantasy Sits: Nick Chubb
Sleepers: Calvin Austin
Las Vegas Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)
Another tussle where points should be plentiful. Mike Evans is going to be open routinely, as should Cade Otton. But it's Bucky Irving who's going to truly destroy this inept Raiders run defense. The fourth rounder's racked up 337 total yards in just the last two weeks and will add a nice bit more to it here, assuming his hip injury doesn't hamper him too much. Not expecting it to.
Can't sleep on Aidan O'Connell though. The Bucs give up passing yards and AOC isn't afraid to throw it around. Given the pitiful state of their running game, he almost has no choice. Jakobi Meyers should be force fed targets on the perimeter whenever O'Connell isn't looking for fellow rookie superstar Brock Bowers over the middle.
The Raiders will put up yards, what they do with them will dictate this game. Tampa's going to score some, but they struggle defensively against teams that throw it well. Not to compliment Las Vegas too much... Buccaneers win at home but smelling a back door cover for the underdogs. Love the over.
Fantasy Starts: Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, Cade Otton, Jakobi Meyers
Fantasy Sits: Alexander Mattison
Sleepers: Tre Tucker, Sincere McCormick, Aidan O'Connell
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)
To the four o'clock block we go, starting with a crucial clash with huge NFC West implications.
The last time these two teams squared off, it was a thoroughly unexciting 16-6 affair. That was a rainy day in Seattle though, not a warm dome in the desert, so expecting the opposite here. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has really emerged as a go-to guy in this offense, giving Geno Smith just one more super reliable pass catcher. They'll need some extra boost from JSN, DK and Tyler Lockett with Kenneth Walker II set to sit out.
Which Kyler Murray are we going to get this week? Seems to always be the question for Cards' fans, as the short quarterback can be as captivating as he is frustrating. The Seahawks' defense has been clamping down over the last month or so, lending some pessimism toward Kyler and the offense's ceiling here. They'll drive a little bit, but if they can't find the end zone, they're not going to win-- as evidenced by their 5 field goal, losing effort in Minnesota.
James Conner needs to produce in this matchup, after racking up just 8 yards in the first go round. Definitely monitoring Trey Benson's usage. Trey McBride will be his usual busy self, while Marvin Harrison Jr. gets quietly overlooked for much of the game. Should be very typical Cardinals.
As it would be for them to come up short here. Seattle is playing disciplined football on defense, doing enough on offense and now have the division firmly in hand. A win this week would almost lock it up, which is exactly what they're going to do. Seahawks win as road dogs.
Fantasy Starts: Trey McBride, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Fantasy Sits: Marvin Harrison Jr.
Sleepers: Trey Benson
Buffalo Bills (-4.5) at Los Angeles Rams
Few teams more disappointing than the Rams. There was so much optimism surrounding the offensive once Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp made their returns to the lineup, but it turned out to be unwarranted. They're productive fantasy players but the on-field returns have been minimal. Matthew Stafford just isn't who he used to be, even with all these weapons at his disposal.
Kyren Williams, another one of those weapons, should gash the Bills weak run D. But if the score gets away from them, he'll be forced to fade into the background.
And that's exactly what we see happening. The Bills are firing on all cylinders and should have no problem racking up points against a weak LA defense. James Cook is going to eat on the ground, opening things up for Josh Allen over the top. If he gets Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid back to fully reunite the squad, look out.
Bills thrash an overpowered Rams team. They won't roll over, but it's going to be a classic slugfest where one party just can't hang.
Fantasy Starts: James Cook, Kyren Williams, Josh Allen
Fantasy Sits: Matthew Stafford
Sleepers: Blake Corum
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5)
Smells like dog...maybe it's the San Francisco streets, but it could be Caleb Williams and the Bears. They've looked much more competent overall offensively since moving on from Shane Waldron and now may be getting a little interim coach energy. The Niners defense hasn't been it's usual vaunted self either, particularly against the run.
D'Andre Swift was banged up during the week but he'll handling his usual duties this evening, with a nice opportunity on hand. If he can get going on the ground, it'll really help Caleb open things up with the play action and his own legs. Chicago should be able to move the ball some.
Will the 49ers be able to keep up without their two top backs? Given how Isaac Guerendo has looked in small doses, they should be just fine. George Kittle should be a regular target over the middle, while Jaylon Johnson shuts down Deebo on the outside. Much more confident in Jauan Jennings here-- as long as the offensive line can keep Montez Sweat off of Brock Purdy.
San Francisco's in a bit of a free fall right now, so why not go full send. The Bears have lost six straight and are ready to end that with a little Bay Area magic. We're riding with the dogs, DA BEARS!
Fantasy Starts: DJ Moore, Isaac Guerendo, George Kittle
Fantasy Sits: Deebo Samuel, Brock Purdy
Sleepers: Rome Odunze
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)
Sunday Night, here we come! They're going to hype this one up as a potential shootout, but there's almost no way that's going to happen. Without JK Dobbins, the Chargers offense has gone completely flat, relying on peppering Ladd McConkey with intermediate targets with a sprinkle of Will Dissly in there. Even with the Chiefs' defense regressing some of late, they don't have much for them.
On the other hand, Patrick Mahomes seems wholly incapable of running away with a game these days, no matter who the opponent is. Isiah Pacheco is back which doesn't hurt, but LA's pretty good against the run. Hard to pinpoint any super exploitable matchups for Kansas City, outside of Mahomes just always managing to get it done late.
Chiefs by 3. Not the best game of the week but there'll surely be a cool play or two. And a controversial flag or three...
Fantasy Starts: Deandre Hopkins, Ladd McConkey
Fantasy Sits: Gus Edwards
Sleepers: Cameron Dicker
Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) at Dallas Cowboys (Monday 12/9)
Wrapping things up with a game with some potential for fireworks. Joe Burrow should have no problem dicing up a weak Cowboys defense; assuming they can keep Micah Parsons off of him. Expecting #11 to cause a bunch of problems for Cincy.
But #1 will cause plenty of issues for Dallas, with Ja'Marr Chase playing some elite football right now. Combine that with Tee Higgins' recent string of strong performances and Chase Brown's emergence on the ground and it's clear that "America's Team" is going to have their hands full.
Cooper Rush is a gamer though, one whose beaten Joe Burrow in this building before-- and this year's version of the Bengals defense is much worse. Rico Dowdle has stepped up big time as a viable RB1 and should be productive. CeeDee Lamb is less than 100% but he's going to have plenty of space to operate. Jake Ferguson is going to be a busy man too as the Cowboys try to keep up.
In the end, Cincinnati is just a little bit better, securing the win on the road. This over should very much play as well. Good luck y'all!
Fantasy Starts: Rico Dowdle, Jake Ferguson, Ja'Marr Chase, Chase Brown, Joe Burrow
Fantasy Sits: Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert
Sleepers: Luke Schoonmaker
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@Choppinglines
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