Byes are behind us! Four weeks of jam packed slates separate us from the playoffs. Tons of action in between to look forward to though, with a prime docket on deck. Let's go:
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) (Thursday 12/12)
A huge NFC west tussle to kick off week fifteen, with win or go home vibes running rampant.
The Niners slept walked through their first four divisional games, falling to 1-3 against the Cards, Rams and Seahawks. Brock Purdy looked back to form last week, despite Deebo Samuel still failing to make an impact on the field. At this point, George Kittle and Jauan Jennings have been much more reliable pass catchers in this offense, which'll likely be the case here. Questions abound in the backfield as well, with Isaac Guerendo's status in question due to a foot sprain. So many injuries in San Fran...
One has to wonder if the Rams blew a little too much of their load in that Bills game for another dramatic victory here. Matthew Stafford looked rejuvenated, while Puka Nacua made his presence known as an elite receiver in this league. Kyren Williams was in bell cow mode, which helped LA's iffy defense stay rested. It's a perfect game plan for a win on a short week, against a vulnerable San Fran D that still has some blue chip guys.
Thinking the Rams have just enough juice to cover in what should be a fun, relatively high scoring game. Will take the Niners to emerge victorious though, keeping their slim playoff hopes alive.
Fantasy Starts: Kyren Williams, George Kittle, Isaac Guerendo, Puka Nacua
Fantasy Sits: Deebo Samuel
Sleepers: Demarcus Robinson
Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) at Cleveland Browns
Up to Cleveland we go to kick off our Sunday slate. The key factor in this game is Jameis Winston and the turnovers. It's been proven pretty definitively that Winston's going to take some shots and move the offense, but some critical mistakes have capped their success. The return of Cedric Tillman rounds the receiving core back into full form, but David Njoku's probable absence is a huge missed opportunity, as the Chiefs cannot cover tight ends. Nick Chubb will get volume and do minimal with it.
Patrick Mahomes though, despite the wins, just doesn't seem to pull away from opponents. Ever. They've managed twelve victories with a paltry average margin of victory of just 3.9. With crappy weather in the forecast, don't expect Sunday to be the day this trend snaps. Isiah Pacheco should take a step closer to being 100% and could help elevate the unit, but it's unlikely any pass catcher finds themselves standing out.
The Browns aren't bad enough to get blown out at home, especially by a team that seems incapable of burying their opposition, no matter how inferior. While an upset may certainly be in play, taking Cleveland +4.5 and the under feels safer.
Fantasy Starts: Isiah Pacheco, Jerry Jeudy
Fantasy Sits: Nick Chubb
Sleepers: Elijah Moore, Xavier Worthy
Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) at Tennessee Titans
It's gross that despite being 5-8, with a historically pathetic defense, that there's still a viable path for Cincy to creep into the postseason. It might be a long shot, but sometimes all you need is a chance.
The Titans should have no chance in this one. Will Levis is pretty objectively terrible, Tony Pollard can't do it alone and the D has really fallen off. The Bengals give up yardage like few others, so it's not completely impossible for a Levis-Ridley pop off, but it's pretty damn close.
Ja'Marr Chase and Joe Burrow are going to do whatever they want through the air. Tee Higgins will probably show up this week, but he's clearly no better than the second fiddle in this offense with the way Chase Brown's stepped up in the backfield.
Could be a wet one in Nashville, which can impact some high powered players-- as we clearly saw Thursday night. But take Cincy with confidence here, the Titans are flailing. The over should hit too, especially if it stays dry.
Fantasy Starts: Tony Pollard, Ja'Marr Chase, Joe Burrow
Fantasy Sits: Mike Gesicki
Sleepers: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
Washington Commanders (-7.5) at New Orleans Saints
Welcome back Jake Haener! In a prospective shootout against Jayden Daniels and the Commanders...tough script for the second year QB. Alvin Kamara will do his best to as a safety blanket in the pass and run game, but barring a deep prayer to Marques Valdes-Scantling, New Orleans' offense is going to be anemic.
Washington should be able to do whatever they want with the ball. Daniels has had success connecting with Terry McLaurin and Zach Ertz recently, which won't change here. Brian Robinson Jr.'s going to be a workhorse in the run game. They'll probably get a short field or two on top of that. Hard to not love the Commanders to cover, even as such big road favorites.
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DC and the points with ease.
Fantasy Starts: Brian Robinson Jr., Jayden Daniels, Alvin Kamara
Fantasy Sits: Marques Valdes-Scantling
Sleepers: Noah Brown
Baltimore Ravens (-16.5) at New York Giants
Speaking of big road favorites...
The Ravens are going up to the Meadowlands rested and healthy from the bye, but angry because they've lost two of three. Tommy DeVito is going to be the quarterback tasked with overcoming that.
Woof.
Fire up Derrick Henry with confidence, Lamar Jackson should do plenty. The Ravens defense is going to suffocate DeVito and Tyrone Tracy Jr., though Malik Nabers will probably get his with the G-Men playing catchup all day.
Great game to be a Baltimore fan, better ones out there otherwise. They should cover as well, as the Giants slowly limp toward the end of the season.
Fantasy Starts: Derrick Henry, Baltimore Defense, Malik Nabers
Fantasy Sits: Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Sleepers: Keaton Mitchell
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)
Carolina may be on the most inspiring three game losing streak ever, coming up just short versus Kansas City, Tampa and Philly. Now they get a prime opportunity to get right against a scrappy, yet depleted Dallas team.
Bryce Young's taken another step forward since getting Adam Thielen back into the mix, quickly reconnecting with his shifty WR1. Both should be busy all afternoon, while Chuba Hubbard plugs away on the ground. The Cowboys will be missing DeMarvion Overshown in the middle of their defense, which'll leave ample space for Hubbard to operate.
Can't sleep on Cooper Rush though. He's been finding his tight ends successfully whenever he doesn't force it to CeeDee Lamb. Rico Dowdle's looked like one of the more decent backs in the league over the last month or so too. The Panthers' D has been playing better recently, but they're not shutting anybody out.
Probably my favorite over of the week-- two capable scoring units with defenses that aren't known for stopping many, plus 43.5 isn't the highest of totals. So hammer that and take the Panthers to snap the losing skid!
Fantasy Starts: Chuba Hubbard, Adam Thielen, Rico Dowdle
Fantasy Sits: Xavier Leggette
Sleepers: Luke Schoonmaker
New York Jets (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
If there was ever one game for Aaron Rodgers and the Jets to show what they were actually capable of...this feels like it. The Jags are riding as high as we'll see them for the foreseeable future, fresh off an upset in Tennessee. That was despite two Mac Jones interceptions and just ten total points scored.
New York is bad, but they're better than that. Getting Breece Hall back wouldn't hurt, but Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis are capable enough. Davante Adams is starting to cook and Garrett Wilson's essentially auditioning for trade partners. Time to shine Gang Green, if only for one week.
Jets by slaughter, bringing some good vibes to their holiday.
Fantasy Starts: Breece Hall, Davante Adams
Fantasy Sits: Tank Bigsby
Sleepers: Parker Washington, Isaiah Davis
Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans (-3.5)
Huge matchup here for all parties involved. The Texans are coming off of a bye with an increasingly tenuous grip on the AFC South. A loss here, especially compounded with a Colts upset, would really crank up the heat.
It won't be easy though. CJ Stroud has noticeably taken a step back from the lofty bar he set for himself as a rookie, even with Nico Collins back in the mix. Jalen Ramsey should be tasked with mirroring him all afternoon. Joe Mixon's been a machine, but he won't be able to do it all versus a stout run stopping unit.
Tua's attempt to change the narrative surrounding his ability to play in the cold went horribly awry, so perhaps he can at least end the one about him being unable to beat winning teams. Despite their improved appearance since the return of Tagovailoa, they still have yet to beat anyone over .500. If they want to stay alive in the playoff hunt, they've got to get it done here.
Houston's secondary has regressed some of late, which could open some windows for the Dolphins' speedy wide outs. Devon Achane also feels due for a bounce back after a pretty middling performance last week. Jonnu Smith will be a key factor as well-- with the tight end serving as a safety blanket all season. The Texans defend the position well, so it'll be curious to see if he can get his.
A lot of fraud energy in this game...hard to pick the lesser of two evils. But we'll roll plus money with Miami, stealing a road victory.
Fantasy Starts: Nico Collins, Jaylen Waddle
Fantasy Sits: CJ Stroud
Sleepers: Dalton Schultz
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-4.5)
To the four o'clock block we go, to a huge, aforementioned game for the Indianapolis Colts. It's basically do or die in Mile High for AR-15, who's looked better since his return from the bench. Low bar previously set there, but nevertheless. Denver's defense will challenge him through the air, but there may be some space anywhere not near Patrick Surtain II. Richardson needs to stay away from him. Attempting to establish the run is critical too, but will be easier said than done.
Gotta love Bo Nix against a suspect Indy secondary. Courtland Sutton seems poised for a huge day, while Devaughn Vele helps chip away underneath. Hard to pinpoint the RB1 in the backfield, with Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin and Austric Estime all splitting lead duties over the last month. Incredibly frustrating situation for fantasy managers and defensive coordinators alike.
For the sake of chaos, hoping the Colts pull an upset this evening. Sean Payton's going to have this Denver team amped up and ready to go off of their by though, disposing of Indy with relative ease at home.
Fantasy Starts: Courtland Sutton, Bo Nix
Fantasy Sits: Michael Pittman Jr.
Sleepers: Audric Estime
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions (-2.5)
Not sure of anyway this game could not be entertaining. Truly a powder keg sitting on a bonfire.
While it seems unlikely that Josh Allen runs back his six touchdown performance from a week ago, it's certainly not impossible, especially with Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid back in the mix. James Cook will likely have more involvement then he did in LA, but Buffalo has seemed to shy away from him some recently. Don't be surprised if a shootout atmosphere causes that again here.
Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery should feast on a Bills' front seven that's pretty bad at stopping the run, presenting the biggest mismatch between any units on these teams. It could get out of hand if those two really start rumbling and Jared Goff starts cooking in the play action. Amon Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams definitely took notes of what Puka/Kupp did to this secondary and should be able to replicate it. Sam LaPorta won't have the same success.
How can you not take the over of 54.5 just for the sake of cheering for it? This game's going to be a classic, one that goes to the road underdog Buffalo! Something tells me they're going to be playing with a little more fire after falling in LA.
Fantasy Starts: Josh Allen, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery
Fantasy Sits: James Cook, Sam LaPorta
Sleepers: Keon Coleman
Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5)
The Battle for the Keystone. A matchup with equal gravitas, albeit with a much lower expectation for excitement.
George Pickens' absence is a key part of that. The Steelers' passing attack looked fine without him last week, but they're clearly more dangerous with him on the field. Look for Mike Williams and Pat Freiermuth to lead the way. Najee Harris will get some volume on the ground but probably won't do much with it. Jaylen Warren will look faster and help more in the short passing game.
Can Pittsburgh's front seven slow Saquon Barkley? If not, then it'll be a long afternoon-- but if so, then the pass rush could really get after Jalen Hurts. Force a mistake or two, cause some dysfunction in the Eagles' huddle. Maybe a little argument on the sideline? So much drama surrounding a team that's so good.
Grown-man type game that Mike Tomlin has made a career of winning. But they're just too overpowered talent-wise to get it done on the road tonight, so take Philly to win, but we'll take Pittsburgh +5.5. No way they don't keep it close.
Fantasy Starts: Saquon Barkley
Fantasy Sits: Najee Harris
Sleepers: Jaylen Warren, Mike Williams
New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)
Couldn't expect the four PM slate to be perfect I guess.
Arizona put themselves on life support with their hapless defeat to Seattle last Sunday. Urgency will be high, but not sure how much it matters. Kyler Murray's ceiling isn't what many were hoping it was, even with the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. James Conner will be able to run the ball, so that'll help Murray, but they just haven't looked like a team that can blow anybody out over the last month.
The Patriots are coming off of a bye and have been scrappy with Drake Maye calling the shots. The Cardinals' defense is underrated but they're far from a perfect unit. Maye should work the ball around to his cast of hardly-average receivers with relative ease, while Rhamondre Stevenson plugs away on the ground and helps open up the play action.
Really unsure of how the Cardinals are -6.5 with how bad they've looked lately and with the Patriots coming off of a bye. Take New England to cover with ease in a game that should cash the over.
Fantasy Starts: James Conner, Trey McBride, Rhamondre Stevenson
Fantasy Sits: Hunter Henry
Sleepers: Drake Maye, Michael Wilson
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5)
More playoff implications on the line! The Bucs are coming off an uninspiring victory over Las Vegas where they rode Rachaad White most of the way. With Bucky Irving's hip still ailing him, it seems White should be in line for another respectable workload, although the Chargers' run D is far less generous.
If Tampa can't get the ground game going, life will harder for Baker Mayfield. The former #1 pick is still making big plays through the air, but he's been committing turnovers at a much higher rate than he was earlier in the season. A clean game from him would go a long way...
...particularly because LA's offense has gone back into it's shell after a brief midseason breakout. Gus Edwards ain't JK Dobbins and he's not going to get the run game going today, leaving Justin Herbert to distribute the ball to a sketchy cast of pass catchers. Ladd McConkey should cook if he plays, but Will Dissly is a reliable start against a defense that can't defend the position.
Love this under, thinking points will be at a relative premium. Tampa covers, Chargers squeak one out.
Fantasy Starts: Cade Otton, Rachaad White, Will Dissly
Fantasy Sits: Gus Edwards
Sleepers: Quentin Johnston
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks
A classic NFC duel for Sunday night football, capping off the day strong.
Not sure how the Seahawks are home dogs here. Geno Smith's been in his bag, routinely connecting with Jaxon Smith-Njigba throughout their four game win streak, sprinkling in a little DK Metcalf along the way! They haven't even needed Tyler Lockett, or Kenneth Walker at full strength for that matter. Impressive stretch for this offense that's absolutely sustainable.
Crazy thing is, Seattle's defense has arguably been the better of the two units. Jordan Love won't get anything easy through the air, tempering expectations for all of his pass catchers. Josh Jacobs should be able to move the ball a little on the ground but it'll take a special effort from the man to carry the team to this win on the road.
Pretty confidently rolling with the Seahawks. Green Bay is formidable, but the loss last week essentially eliminating them from contending for the division had to have taken the wind out of their sails a little. Seattle has too much on the line to not bring their A game.
Fantasy Starts: Josh Jacobs, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Fantasy Sits: Jayden Reed
Sleepers: Noah Fant
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-7.5) (Monday 12/16)
Speaking of the NFC North... Chicago travels to Minnesota for a rematch of an entertaining battle we witnessed on Thanksgiving.
Sam Darnold can't possibly top last week's performance, right? Chicago's secondary isn't great, but they're way better than Atlanta's, so Darnold will have to be on his P's and Q's. Aaron Jones should actually be able to run against an iffy front seven, assuming he doesn't fumble the ball away, so that could help things for the QB. Jordan Addison went 8/162/1 in the first go-round, for what it's worth.
Will the Bears be able to score in the first half? The notoriously slow starters have dug some impressive holes for themselves all season and could easily find themselves in the same spot Monday night. Minnesota allows passing yards but they get after the quarterback better than most. Caleb Williams won't go crazy, at least early on. D'Andre Swift will also struggle against a historically strong run stopping unit.
Don't be shocked if Chicago covers, but there's no way Minnesota loses this one. Too much on the line and just a far superior roster and coaching staff.
Fantasy Starts: Aaron Jones, Sam Darnold, DJ Moore
Fantasy Sits: D'Andre Swift
Sleepers: Rome Odunze
Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) at Las Vegas Raiders (Monday 12/16)
And we wrap up with the Falcons-Raiders...forgive the over enthusiasm.
Kirk Cousins needs to play like his job is on the line, because it is. With no Maxx Crosby to come after him, there may not be an easier matchup in the league for this Atlanta offense. Bijan should get whatever he wants on the ground while Cousins hits some passes for the first time in a while over the top.
On the other side of the ball, Desmond Ridder will be putting forth his best efforts to bury a team that very publicly cast him off after a wholly uninspiring stint. The Falcons' defense sucks, but so does Ridder. Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers will catch a few passes, while Sincere McCormick continues to look competent running the ball. But the Raiders aren't going to score a lot. And the Falcons will.
Atlanta wins and covers, no need to overthink this one.
Fantasy Starts: Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Defense
Fantasy Sits: Jakobi Meyers
Sleepers: Sincere McCormick
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@Choppinglines
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