Week 12: the end of the second-third of the season. If that makes sense. A turning point of sorts, where teams start to stand out as true playoff hopefuls and ships that have sailed. We'll get a few more answers in that regard in just a few hours:
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) at Cleveland Browns (Thursday 11/21)
An old fashioned AFC North slugfest coming to your televisions Thursday night, with two teams on incredibly opposite trajectories.
The Steelers find themselves defying the odds at 8-2, well atop the division. Russell Wilson came back to Earth some last week, but he's played really well since returning from injury. Expect him to routinely look for George Pickens tonight, who's going to have some fun against Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome II.
Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren have a nice opportunity in the run game too. Cleveland's struggled in that department lately, as evidenced by the 214 yards they recently allowed to New Orleans on just 28 carries. Harris is the clear cut lead dog, but Warren's going to get his-- averaging 12.6 touches a game over the last 5 weeks.
The Browns have a wild card though, who goes by the name of Jameis Winston. He's, predictably, been a roller coaster through 3 weeks, sandwiching an absolute dud against the Chargers with massive statistical outings versus Baltimore and New Orleans. This Steelers defense will give him some issues though, so expect a turnover or three. His receivers should have a little opportunity to shine, though it's a dart throw on who'll be the most productive.
Feels trappy for Pittsburgh...on the road, riding as high as they possibly could. The Browns have nothing to lose and just enough talent to maybe pull an upset? Thinking they cover at a minimum and cash the over that's approachably set at 36.5.
Fantasy Starts: Najee Harris, Jameis Winston
Fantasy Sits: Nick Chubb
Sleepers: Jerry Jeudy
Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at Chicago Bears
Keeping it up North to kick off our Sunday slate, this time in the NFC though.
Minnesota's coming off a nice showing versus an inferior Tennessee team, leaving little doubt on their way to a 10 point victory. Sam Darnold avoided interceptions and moved the ball down field with relative ease, but it won't be so simple for him this go round. Expect him to target whoever Jaylon Johnson isn't covering early and often, forcing the ball to Justin Jefferson whenever possible. Curious to see if Cam Akers continues to cut into Aaron Jones workload too, as the latter's been inefficient and banged up.
Chicago boasts a little pop on each side of the ball, but their success will depend on which Caleb Williams decides to show up. He looked substantially better without Shane Waldron calling the plays for him and should have an opportunity to rack up some yards on a generous Vikings secondary-- if their offensive line can keep him upright. D'Andre Swift being less than 100% won't help matters; could be a busy day for Roschon Johnson.
Thinking Minnesota pulls it off, but the Bears showed some heart in Green Bay, so I do like them to cover. Their defense should be able to force a turnover or two to facilitate some short fields for Williams. Should be an interesting, albeit unexciting divisional affair.
Fantasy Starts: Justin Jefferson
Fantasy Sits: Aaron Jones, D'Andre Swift
Sleepers: Caleb Williams, Cam Akers
Detroit Lions (-7.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Much like the Pittsburgh game...this one also is giving some trap vibes.
Detroit has been murdering their opponents recently and have to come back to Earth eventually, right? Their offense should roll in this matchup though, taking whatever Indy gives them and racking up yards. Goff should be able to throw while Monty and Gibbs rumble on the ground and fill up the box score.
But will the Colts be able to hang? Anthony Richardson looked completely rejuvenated last week against an overhyped Jets D, thrashing them through the air while adding meaningful yards with his legs. This Lions defense is criminally underappreciated, but they've been steadily sustaining injuries to key guys. Will the loss of Alex Anzalone free up room to run for AR-15 and Jonathan Taylor? And how well will their corners stack up against a diverse group of receivers?
One of my favorite overs of the week, should be a big time shootout. Feeling bold too and taking the Colts at home, preserving their fleeting postseason hopes.
Fantasy Starts: Anthony Richardson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon Ra St. Brown
Fantasy Sits: N/A
Sleepers: Kalif Raymond, Alec Pierce
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-7.5)
Another sleeper game on this one o'clock slate, thanks largely in part to the strong play of Drake Maye. The third overall pick's jump started a Patriots team that'd all but shipped it in for the season, winning or competing in each of their last four contests. It's been substantially more palatable than anything Jacoby Brissett gave us. This Dolphins defense is tough, but he'll have some throwing lanes. How often their receivers can catch it though...remains to be seen.
Rhamondre Stevenson's been a steady presence for this offense, which should also continue against a middle of the pack run defense. His performance will have a key factor in whether they can pull an upset or not.
So will Tua Tagovailoa's. Miami's QB has been as advertised overall since his return, kickstarting this offense into at least a semblance of their former, explosive selves. Still feels like they haven't fully hit their stride and this is a breakout spot against a group that just allowed a ton of yards to Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. This could be the week we see Jaylen Waddle snap his funk. Devon Achane's also going to be force fed.
Good bit of hype around New England, but it's the Dolphins for me in this matchup. It's really a can't lose if they want to maintain their playoff chances and a team they should be able to outscore, at a minimum. Like the over and the 'Fins.
Fantasy Starts: Devon Achane, Tua Tagovailoa, Rhamondre Stevenson
Fantasy Sits: Demario Douglas
Sleepers: Hunter Henry
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5) at New York Giants
How happy do you think Baker Mayfield is to see Mike Evans back out there? After three, heavily Cade Otton-dependent games, the Bucs top weapon should suit up against the G-Men and should immediately assume top dog duties. He's going to be peppered with targets early on, opening up easier matchups for the other guys on the depth chart.
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| Photo: USA Today |
Big days ahead for Rachaad White and Bucky Irving too. For as good as New York is at getting after the passer, they absolutely stink at defending the run. Both Tampa backs should be heavily featured, especially if things start to get out of hand.
How happy do you think Todd Bowles is to see Tommy DeVito under center for the Giants? The kid doesn't make a lot of mistakes, but he also doesn't do much to wow you either. It hampers Malik Nabers' reliability, though he should receive a bounty of looks. Thinking Wan'Dale Robinson or Theo Johnson may be where he has the most luck connecting. Brutal matchup for Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary too, against a great run D.
Off a bye and with new found life in the NFC South race, this has to be a Tampa victory. They're getting healthy in some key areas and were playing really scrappy prior to that. The Giants seem to be going the other direction right now, and barring some Italian magic, will be one step closer to a top pick.
Fantasy Starts: Bucky Irving, Rachaad White
Fantasy Sits: Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Sleepers: Theo Johnson
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders (-10.5)
Dan Quinn revenge game + Cooper Rush + Commanders needing to stay in the divisional race + a top rushing attack versus a poop run defense = A cake walk in DC.
No need to overthink this one. We haven't seen Washington's offense get rolling in recent weeks against some tough opponents, but they were killing inferior units prior to that. This is a game they have to get right with, and will.
Commanders by a healthy margin.
Fantasy Starts: Brian Robinson Jr., Jayden Daniels, CeeDee Lamb
Fantasy Sits: Any Cowboy but Lamb
Sleepers: Chris Rodriguez
Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) at Carolina Panthers
Getting an angry Kansas City team isn't a particularly inviting proposition for anyone in the NFL.
Now picture that opponent being the Panthers. Woof. Bryce Young's looked miles better since returning from his benching, and will get Adam Thielen back, but KC's going to give him some trouble. Chuba Hubbard's been excellent but even he's going to struggle against the second best run stopping unit. Curious to see how Jonathan Brooks looks in his debut.
For as much credit as Patrick Mahomes, rightfully, receives for his accolades, he shouldn't be immune to critique-- and this year hasn't been his best work. The Panthers give out yardage like it's their job, priming Mahomes for an opportunity to right the ship. Kareem Hunt should help pace things on the ground while #15 reconnects with Travis Kelce and Deandre Hopkins against inferior defenders.
Chiefs in a big time get right game against a scrappy, yet incapable foe.
Fantasy Starts: Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce
Fantasy Sits: Adam Thielen
Sleepers: Ja'Tavion Sanders, Noah Gray
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-7.5)
Never an easy divisional game and this one is no different. Tennessee has a sneaky solid defense, but they're missing a few key guys and haven't really gotten a ton of support from Will Levis and the offense. A slow or turnover-ridden start could go a long way in crushing those spirits, so ball control will have to be a paramount point of concern.
CJ Stroud definitely missed Nico Collins being out there. The Texans' WR1 had his biggest play of the night wiped out due to a penalty, but the offense looked fully functional in his return. Joe Mixon was and has been a key part of that. He's having a career season in his 8th year and hasn't shown any signs of slowing down. The Titans front seven will limit him, but he'll be there when it's time to salt things away.
Still not fully sold on Houston yet. They whooped Dallas last Monday, but had a really sluggish first half. Tennessee's going to pull them into a dog fight, managing to cover +7.5. Texans pull it off late.
Fantasy Starts: Joe Mixon, Nico Collins
Fantasy Sits: Tony Pollard
Sleepers: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, John Metchie III
Denver Broncos (-6.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
All aboard the Bo Nix hype train. The 12th overall pick has been outstanding over the last month, throwing for 9 touchdowns to just 1 interception. His rapport with Courtland Sutton has gone through the roof, but he's clicking with guys like Devaughn Vele and Troy Franklin too. It's not a bunch that'll blow anyone away, but they're getting it done-- especially against bad teams.
And the Raiders are a bad team. Bad quarterback, historically bad rushing attack, bad run defense, bad coach. Great tight end and edge rusher, but that's only going to get you so far. As much as Las Vegas would like to play spoiler, Sean Payton isn't going to allow it-- especially with Antonio Pierce on the other side of the chess board.
Bet on a Minshew INT and then take the Broncos to cover and some Javonte Williams props, if you're feeling bold. Roulette wheel of a backfield in Denver but the Raiders can't stop the run.
Fantasy Starts: Javonte Williams, Brock Bowers
Fantasy Sits: Jakobi Meyers
Sleepers: Audric Estime, Troy Franklin
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-5.5)
How do you think Niners fans are feeling in a must-win game with Brandon Allen under center? My how this season has gone south in a hurry. Ironically, as a trip north may end it.
Key word here is: may. Christian McCaffery and Deebo Samuel are going to put everything they've got into pulling the upset, plus George Kittle is set to return against a bunch that's generous to the tight end position. Kyle Shanahan may be a choke artist, but he can orchestrate a respectable offense. Even with Allen at the helm, it shouldn't be completely pathetic this evening.
The interception-machine Jordan Love also may factor into that, having literally thrown one (or more) in each of the 8 games he's played. San Francisco would surely appreciate a short field or two. Josh Jacobs will put up some workmanlike carries and modest yardage, while Jayden Reed paces the way in the receiving game. Curious which Tucker Kraft will show up, drawing a tough matchup with Fred Warner.
When it's all said and done, the Cheeseheads are going to prevail at home, but leaning toward a San Francisco cover. With the season on the line, they're still more than talented enough to hang, but just not enough to pull it off.
Fantasy Starts: George Kittle, Jayden Reed
Fantasy Sits: Tucker Kraft
Sleepers: Elijah Wilson, Brandon Allen
Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) at Seattle Seahawks
On the surface, the Cardinals look like such a hot spot here, but a deeper dive reveals some cold, rainy weather incoming for this game. Kyler Murray's got small hands and likes his warm weather, which doesn't exactly equate this to a recipe for his success.
However, handing the ball a bunch of times to James Conner does sound like something that could work. The bruiser's been his usual, reliable self this season, churning away yards with the best of them. Seattle's run defense sucks, opening the door for a huge day for Conner. Expect Trey Benson to get some play too, as the rookie's been creeping more into the picture of late.
Seattle's tough to get a read on. Talented, well-coached and inconsistent as they come. Geno Smith likely won't find a rhythm in the bad weather, plus this Cardinals' pass D has stepped up in recent weeks. Jonathan Gannon sinking his roots in. Like Conner, Kenneth Walker should be heavily featured to keep Geno from having to toss it around in the slosh.
Expecting a ton of rushing attempts and therefore running clock. Taking the under and Arizona, establishing themselves firmly atop the NFC West.
Fantasy Starts: James Conner, Kenneth Walker
Fantasy Sits: Geno Smith
Sleepers: Trey Benson
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Los Angeles Rams
To Sunday night we go, with two explosive offenses squaring off in Los Angeles.
The Eagles have looked absolutely unstoppable in recent weeks, torching teams by ground or air, wherever it's most convenient. AJ Brown and Devonta Smith's returns have been key parts of that-- and should cook again this evening. Saquon Barkley's also been a pivotal piece, though the end zone has been elusive for him. Not thinking the Rams defense is going to have much to slow them down.
So it'll be up to Matthew Stafford and company to keep up. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are more than up to the task; can't wait to see how Quinyon Mitchell fares against each. Philly's also really good against the run, so temper expectations for Kyren Williams.
The Rams could easily make this a close one, but something tells me Stafford struggles against this Eagles defense. Jalen Hurts should have no shortage of ways to counter, leading to a relatively easy road win for Philadelphia.
Fantasy Starts: Puka Nacua, AJ Brown, Dallas Goedert
Fantasy Sits: Matthew Stafford
Sleepers: Jahan Dotson
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (Monday 11/25)
To Monday night we go, with two explosive teams squaring off in Los Angeles. Wait a minute...
But seriously, this Chargers offense has looked formidable in recent weeks. Justin Herbert seems fully healthy, Quentin Johnston has become a productive player, Ladd McConkey is delivering on the draft hype and Will Dissly has emerged as a legit tight end, out of nowhere. It's a pick-your-poison type group that will get open against this Ravens secondary.
Compounding matters is that Travis Jones and Roquan Smith may not suit up for Baltimore, exposing a massive hole in the middle of their defense. JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards would surely relish the opportunity to pop a few off against their former teammates.
You can never count Lamar Jackson out though. #8 and the offense laid an egg in Pittsburgh and would like to avoid a similar showing under the lime light. LA does a lot well defensively, so Lamar will need to mind his P's and Q's. Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman should create some open windows for him, while we patiently await Diontae Johnson's arrival. Todd Monken can't abandon the run either, stick to the script.
Picked against my Ravens last week in hopes of a jinx and proved to be right. Thinking this is a really tough matchup for them, so once again rolling with the opposition. Chargers are looking good right now and steal a game that could have wildcard implications down the road.
Fantasy Starts: Ladd McConkey, Zay Flowers, Justin Herbert
Fantasy Sits: Derrick Henry
Sleepers: Will Dissly, Gus Edwards
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@Choppinglines
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