Week 10, here we come. The first of the double digit weeks, signifying our declining trajectory toward the end of the season. No rush though (except in Dallas), we've still got plenty of football left!
Hoping that Thursday night game was a sign of the action to come...
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
Shew, what a way to kick off the slate. An AFC North tilt that'll have massive impacts on the postseason picture in a few months and rematch of one of the more exciting games of 2024.
Lamar Jackson was absolutely masterful the first time these teams met, dicing the Bengals secondary en route to one of the more improbable comebacks you'll see. With the passing attack still clicking, plus the addition of Diontae Johnson, no reason to think he won't be able to do it again. Throw Derrick Henry into that mix too and it spells a long evening for the Cincy D.
But Joe Burrow's been locked in as well, fresh off a disgruntled five touchdown performance. He's historically performed very well against Baltimore, although his record doesn't reflect that. Ja'Marr Chase will cook, while Mike Gesicki continues to stay involved in the absence of Tee Higgins. Chase Brown will get some volume, especially if the Bengals can build up a lead, and should be able to make some serviceable headway with it.
At the end of the night though, this Ravens team is on a mission. This over is a stone cold lock, while Lamar and Co. hold off a desperate and capable Cincy attack for the win, while allowing the Bengals to manage a cover.
Fantasy Starts: Ja'Marr Chase, Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow
Fantasy Sits: Either Defense
Sleepers: Andrei Iosivas, Justice Hill
New York Giants (-6.5) at Carolina Panthers (Munich, Germany)
Pretty confusing logic trying to expand the game internationally...by sending this Giants-Panthers squabble overseas. We're all for extra NFL football at odd hours, but this 9:30 affair can be missed.
The Giants are limping along, still seemingly accepting of Daniel Jones under center. He's probably not worse than Drew Lock, but what are we doing at this point? Malik Nabers and Tyrone Tracy Jr. should be heavily involved against a shaky Carolina D, with Wan'Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton having some sleeper value.
What's Bryce Young have for an encore? After securing his first win of 2024, hopes are higher with last year's #1 pick than they were a week ago. Low bar, but he's got to start somewhere! The recently extended Chuba Hubbard should provide plenty of balance to the offense while Young does his best to find his pass catchers down the field. Not expecting a ton of air yardage, but it may not be necessary if Hubbard gets going.
On vibes alone, we'll take Carolina to cover here. Simply unsure any team should be 6.5 point dogs to the G-Men. Also taking the over, with less confidence. Should be some turnovers to help kickstart the scoring.
Fantasy Starts: Tyrone Tracy Jr., Chuba Hubbard
Fantasy Sits: Xavier Leggette
Sleepers: Darius Slayton
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears (-6.5)
Back to the States we go, to the Windy City for a forgettable one o'clock showdown. For the sake of excitement, we'll hype it up as the battle between the #1 and #3 pick.
Drake Maye has energized the Patriots over these last few weeks, though Jacoby Brissett set that bar pretty low. His pass catchers have really let him down over that span, dropping passes which routinely help stall out drives. Their ceiling is limited until that changes. Curious how much success Rhamondre Stevenson will have on the ground too, after watching Arizona gash Chicago in the run game last week.
Big question on everyone's mind is which Caleb Williams is going to show up: the panicked and frustrated version or the one that's willing and able to drive the ball down field to his talented pass catchers. He should have some options available if he has time in the pocket; whoever Christian Gonzalez isn't guarding anyway. D'Andre Swift will continue rolling against a front seven that's been regressing in recent performances.
While this won't be the most fun you have this Sunday, thinking the over of 38.5 is a tad low. Each of these defenses are starting to show holes and there should be enough offense to take advantage. Bears get back on track with a win, holding on to cover late.
Fantasy Starts: D'Andre Swift, Rhamondre Stevenson
Fantasy Sits: Demario Douglas
Sleepers: Rome Odunze
Buffalo Bills (-4.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Another week of Joe Flacco! For better or worse anyway, after his frustrating Sunday Night outing versus Minnesota-- whose blitz gave the former Super Bowl MVP a ton of trouble. Could be the script here as well, with an athletic Buffalo pass rush.
Michael Pittman Jr. sitting out won't help matters, but it'll provide some extra volume for Josh Downs, Adonai Mitchell and Alec Pierce. Jonathan Taylor should be featured early and often, but he's struggled with Flacco under center compared to Richardson. The Bills weak run D offers a nice opportunity for him to change that.
Speaking of receiver injuries, Buffalo will be dealing with plenty, as Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman are poised to sit. It'll free up some targets for Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid, but thinking James Cook and backup running back Ray Davis will be the bigger beneficiaries. Don't expect Josh Allen and this offense to slow down against a weak Indy D.
The Bills are riding really high, which makes this road game feel a little trappy, especially with it being hard to get much lower than the Colts' performance last week. Leaning toward an Indianapolis cover, with Buffalo squeaking out a tough victory away from Orchard Park.
Fantasy Starts: James Cook, Josh Allen, Josh Downs
Fantasy Sits: Joe Flacco
Sleepers: Ray Davis
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)
There should be an alert in my head at this point: If you see KC laying more than a touchdown, take the other team. Patrick Mahomes and company just refuse to cover big spreads, a fact made only more frustrating by the fact that they always cash money lines. The real gusto's somewhere in between, as this matchup is perfectly set to fit that billing.
Mahomes has looked rejuvenated since Deandre Hopkins arrival, rediscovering his connection with Travis Kelce and helping the rest of the receivers fill in the cracks. The Broncos have a tough secondary, but Baltimore gave a blueprint last week on how to take advantage. Surely Andy Reid took note. Kareem Hunt's rebirth should continue as well versus this soft front seven.
Not going to say Bo Nix was exposed last week, but he clearly showed that he wasn't quite ready for a step up in competition. This Chiefs' defense ain't no joke either and will give him trouble all day. There's no way he has a big day through the air, spare a toss up or two to Troy Franklin or Courtland Sutton. Javonte Williams' production will suffer as a result.
As much as I just hyped up Kansas City's inability to cover, this feels like a prime spot, if only on the defense's back. Denver won't be able to move the ball and a turnover or two will be inevitable. Chiefs stay undefeated, cover and hit the under.
Fantasy Starts: Chiefs Defense, Kareem Hunt
Fantasy Sits: Javonte Williams
Sleepers: Wil Lutz
Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) at New Orleans Saints
Between last week's showing in Carolina, Chris Olave hitting the IR and the trading away of Marshon Lattimore, there's some genuine concern that New Orleans may quit this week. Alvin Kamara's going to get 20+ touches, but there's not even a partially reliable pass catcher for Derek Carr to throw to. Luckily for Carr, Atlanta has no type of pass rush, so he'll have all day to try and find these guys, but good luck. Expect to hear Kamara's name a lot.
The Falcons were fortunate to dodge a major injury to their top wideout, with Drake London sustaining only a minor hip injury. He'll be good to go today, although how much he'll be needed remains to be seen. Bijan Robinson should be able to pace the offense while Kirk Cousins finds his stable of receivers almost willingly versus this depleted group of corners. It's going to be a long day for Saints fans.
Hammer the Falcons as a result. Sure, it's a divisional game, but this is the type of mid-team Kirk's made a career of killing. Add one more to the list in a few hours here.
Fantasy Starts: Bijan Robinson, Alvin Kamara
Fantasy Sits: Derek Carr
Sleepers: Mason Tipton
San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The return of Christian McCaffery! It wasn't clear if San Francisco's versatile running back was going to play at all this season after a weird stint with double Achilles tendonitis, but something those doctors in Germany did worked, so here we are!
 |
| Photo: USA Today |
Tough draw against a stout Tampa front seven. The running lanes may be clogged a bit, but CMC's going to get his in the short passing game, as the Bucs have allowed the second most receiving yards to backs per game. Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings will be involved too, as will Kittle. The Niners should be able to work out some of their offensive kinks in this one.
Especially because Baker Mayfield's Bucs are dealing with a ton of their own injuries. Outside of Cade Otton, their passing attack has gone down the drain in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin's absences. Even in a good matchup here, it's hard to trust them through the air. Rachaad White and Bucky Irving are going to need to be big on the ground, but it's a tall task.
Not thinking they're up for it. San Fran has looked bumpy for a while but one man can truly change all of that. Looking for an explosion in Tampa, crushing their team over while facilitating some huge fantasy days.
Fantasy Starts: Christian McCaffery, George Kittle, Brock Purdy
Fantasy Sits: Rachaad White
Sleepers: Jauan Jennings, 49ers Defense
Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Commanders (-2.5)
Very interesting tilt between two two-loss teams.
Pittsburgh's offense has looked effective with Russell Wilson at the helm, figuring out that sometimes it's an effective strategy to just throw it up for George Pickens. Mike Williams will make for a very interesting addition in that regard, giving the team another weapon downfield. Najee Harris has been a massive benefactor from that as well, really shaping up as an RB1 with Wilson handing it off to him. Nice, soft front seven for him to batter.
But what do the Steelers do about Jayden Daniels? The rookie has been remarkable early on in his career, only turning the ball over thrice while elevating the offense into one of the more potent ones league-wide. Joey Porter Jr. is going to be squaring up his top receiver Terry McLaurin much of the day, so look for Noah Brown and Zach Ertz to chip in a little extra.
No Brian Robinson Jr. doesn't help things, but Austin Ekeler showed last week that he's still got it. Chris Rodriguez and Jeremy McNichols also are capable of grinding out some yardage between the tackles, so don't expect a crazy fall off in Robinson's wake.
For the Ravens sake, would love to be wrong about this, but something tells me Pittsburgh walks away victorious. Tomlin loves bullying rookie quarterbacks and the Steelers are playing some sound football right now. Just a gut feeling, plus the over in a sneaky fun game.
Fantasy Starts: Najee Harris, Austin Ekeler
Fantasy Sits: Terry McLaurin
Sleepers: Chris Rodriguez, Calvin Austin
Minnesota Vikings (-6.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Are you ready for some Mac Jones?! With Trevor Lawrence unlikely to suit up, that's exactly what Jaguars fans are going to get! What an uninspiring proposition...Brian Thomas Jr. is probably the only startable fantasy player for Jacksonville-- and even that's a stretch.
It took Sam Darnold a half, but he remembered what he was doing last Sunday night, ultimately torching the Colts for the final 30 minutes of their game. He should have no problem carrying that same energy down to Duval to demolish one of the more generous secondaries you'll find. Hammer Jettas props, with Jordan Addison likely to get in on the mix too.
Would steer clear of Aaron Jones against a stingy front seven. He's also been a little inefficient of late, reminding folks why Green Bay replaced him with Josh Jacobs.
Vikings win going away. Their blitz is going to give Jones trouble all day and their passing attack, while prone to mistakes, should be able to put up plenty of points.
Fantasy Starts: Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Sam Darnold
Fantasy Sits: Aaron Jones, Tank Bigsby
Sleepers: Jalen Nailor
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5)
Will Levis is back! What, no applause?
Seriously, the ones who should be clapping are the Chargers defenders. Look for them to get after Levis early and often, forcing an error or two (or three or four). Tony Pollard's been surprisingly productive, but it's just not going to be there this week. Truly thinking the offense takes a step back with Mason Rudolph going to the bench-- and they didn't have many steps back to take.
On the other hand, LA's evolved from a run heavy attack to a pass happy one to this newest version that seemingly can do it all well. This'll be a true litmus test for all parties against a tough Tennessee defense. JK Dobbins will be heavily involved to try and set up some intermediate looks for Ladd McConkey and a deep shot or two for Quentin Johnston.
Feeling a quiet beatdown. Tennessee's going to walk into LA, get worked over real quick on both sides of the ball and walk out, wondering how they're going to get through the final stretch of the year.
Fantasy Starts: Chargers Defense, JK Dobbins
Fantasy Sits: Tony Pollard
Sleepers: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) at Dallas Cowboys
As we mentioned in the introduction, it's Cooper Rush time. He cost me a nice chunk of change by upsetting the Bengals last season, so can't fully sleep on him, but we're dozing. It'll be an uphill battle for Rush, with no running game to speak of and a banged up CeeDee Lamb. The Eagles defense is playing much better in recent weeks too, only adding to the challenge.
Philly's offense is back and fully healthy, which could prove problematic versus a Dallas' defense that's missing some key guys. Saquon Barkley's going to run wild, while AJ Brown outworks whoever lines up across from him. And let's not forget Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, who bring plenty to the table when called upon.
Too diverse of an attack for the Cowboys to hang, whether it was Dak or Rush under center. Divisional games can be wonky, and the Eagles love to mess around, but they won't balk at the chance to bury their rivals' playoff hopes. Philadelphia by slaughter.
Fantasy Starts: Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, Philadelphia Defense
Fantasy Sits: Rico Dowdle
Sleepers: Jahan Dotson
New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals (-1/2)
Probably the trickiest game on the docket to get a read on here. Arizona can be so fun to watch one week and then follow it up with some of the worst football you've ever seen. The Jets were supposed to be juggernauts but generally suck. Something's got to give.
Kyler Murray's had this offense working recently, taking whatever the defense gives them and managing to put up points. The ground game will likely be their easiest approach against New York, leaning on James Conner but possibly ceding some touches to Trey Benson and Emari Demarcado. Murray will pick and choose a few spots in between to find Trey McBride and the emerging Marvin Harrison Jr.
Nice opportunity for Aaron Rodgers to showcase what his group can do. Arizona's been playing better defensively of late, but they're still outmatched talent-wise against these Jets' skill players. Garrett Wilson will continue to be the go to guy, while Davante Adams provides a big play or two. Breece Hall should be able to get going, but you never know with him.
All signs point to New York, but let's fade that for this one. Arizona is at home and hot, figuring out how to win ball games as a team. They're just a little too spunky for a sad team like the Jets to put down, so let's go Cards and over.
Fantasy Starts: James Conner, Garrett Wilson, Aaron Rodgers
Fantasy Sits: Trey McBride
Sleepers: Trey Benson
Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Houston Texans
Sunday Night, here we come. The leaders of the NFC North and AFC South are set to square off for bragging rights at the midpoint.
Good news for Texans fans, Nico Collins has been activated from the IR. Not sure if he'll play yet, but even if it's not until next week, it's a massive development for a passing attack that's wallowed without their top wideout. Joe Mixon's been a catalyst, but this'll be one of the stiffer tests he'll face against this Lions front seven. Not as reliable as other weeks.
Jared Goff's a legit MVP candidate with how he's been slinging the rock all season, but particularly over the last month or so. The Texans have some nice young pieces in their secondary, but they haven't always lived up to their billing against top tier opponents. Amon Ra should have little issue dicing them up today. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs will put up workmanlike yardage, but don't think either pops.
If Collins plays, then Houston becomes a little more viable as an underdog. But if not, I've seen enough of them over the last two weeks to know they can't hang with this Detroit machine. Truly not thinking it makes much of a difference anyway.
Fantasy Starts: Jared Goff, Amon Ra St. Brown, Tank Dell
Fantasy Sits: Sam LaPorta
Sleepers: Jameson Williams, Robert Woods
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) (Monday 11/11)
Big Monday night matchup: A last gasp for Miami while the Rams try and establish themselves as legit playoff contenders.
The Dolphins look much better with Tua Tagovailoa back under center, but he could be without Tyreek Hill for this one. It'd be a major blow for the offense, but one they could handle with Jaylen Waddle in tow. Perhaps Odell Beckham Jr. even gets involved?!
Their running back tandem of Raheem Mostert and Devon Achane should provide plenty of pop, with the latter likely contributing a nice bit in the pass game. It's a true thunder and lightning that's been unfortunately stuck in neutral for much of the year.
Puka Nacua's return has sparked a Rams offense that needed one. Kyren Williams is as steady as they come, while Matthew Stafford continues to plug away week in and week out. Miami isn't a crazy difficult matchup for them, but it'll be interesting to see how/if they attack Jalen Ramsey. A little revenge game of sorts for him?
It'd certainly be vengeful of the Dolphins to blow a hole in the Rams short-term playoff aspirations, which is exactly what we see happening. Should be a fun, high scoring duel where Miami finally flexes it's muscle.
Fantasy Starts: Jaylen Waddle, Puka Nacua, Devon Achane
Fantasy Sits: Jonnu Smith
Sleepers: Odell Beckham Jr.
------
@Choppinglines
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
Comments
Post a Comment