Week Nine! Guilty as charged, with the stories! With so much mediocrity league-wide, we're going to get a much clearer playoff picture after this slate's all said and done. Expecting some crazy witching hours, get your live bets ready.
Houston Texans at New York Jets (-2.5) (Thursday 10/31)
To the Meadowlands we go for a Halloween treat! Or perhaps a trick, that remains to be seen with this matchup.
The Texans are riding high at 5-2, but it hasn't all been pretty. CJ Stroud has looked woefully pedestrian in the absence of Nico Collins, which should be further exacerbated with the loss of Stefon Diggs. This Jets secondary may be underachieving a bit, but they're a tough unit. Will be curious to see who steps up behind Tank Dell. Look for Joe Mixon to get a ton of work, in the run and short pass game.
One...last...gasp from Gang Green. It may still be too little too late, but they can't afford to drop this one at home. Houston's secondary is supremely generous, which Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams should exploit. They're okay against the run, so temper expectations some for Breece Hall. Stay away from Tyler Conklin though, with the Texans allowing the fewest yards to tight ends in the league.
Both of these teams have their issues, but it seems like Houston's just a little more functional right now. Thinking it'll be a close back and forth that squeaks the over as the Texans put the final nail in New York's coffin.
Fantasy Starts: Joe Mixon, Garrett Wilson
Fantasy Sits: Tyler Conklin, CJ Stroud
Sleepers: Xavier Hutchinson
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
After picking Dallas to upset San Francisco last week, a lesson was learned. This team ain't it and it's become painfully obvious.
Atlanta flexed all of it's offensive muscles against Tampa, with Kirk Cousins tossing four touchdowns against the depleted Bucs. The Cowboys defense should be even more generous, struggling to stop the pass and the ground game. Huge day incoming for Bijan Robinson in particular.
This Falcons defense doesn't swarm the quarterback, which plays into Dak's favor. He should have no trouble connecting regularly with CeeDee Lamb, with some Jake Ferguson sprinkled in there. But the run game will be nearly nonexistent once again, with Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook splitting time in a backfield that would've been sick six years ago.
Big fan of the over between these two but confident that Atlanta will be able to win. Thinking they cover -2.5 with minimal issue as well.
Fantasy Starts: Bijan Robinson, CeeDee Lamb, Darnell Mooney
Fantasy Sits: The Cowboys Backfield
Sleepers: Jalen Tolbert, Tyler Allgeier
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-6.5)
Do or die time for the Dolphins, drawing one of the more difficult assignments imaginable given the stakes.
Tua Tagovailoa had the offense looking substantially better than it had under Tyler Huntley or Tim Boyle, but that still didn't amount to a win versus Arizona. They can't afford another sputter against a Bills group that's absolutely rolling. Another week of healing up should go a long way for Tyreek Hill, but he's never been able to torch Buffalo. Will this be the week? Devon Achane should be busy to help try and keep this game close.
Which it should be! The Dolphins D has been a top five unit and will challenge Josh Allen, who should be riding high after dismantling Seattle. James Cook's emerged as a top back, while Amari Cooper has helped open things up for the other receivers. If the Bills offense continues with that same energy, it's going to be hard to fathom them not winning the AFC.
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| Photo: Mark Konezny/ USA Today |
Buffalo's going to bury Miami for the season but it won't be easy. 6.5 points is a lot, so let's take the Dolphins to cover, but the Bills are going to circle to wagons at home. Hit the over too, why not, let's make it fun.
Fantasy Starts: Devon Achane, Josh Allen
Fantasy Sits: Jonnu Smith
Sleepers: Jaylen Wright
Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)
Time for the Bengals final push as well, with the sad Raiders coming to town. Tee Higgins and Zack Moss are out, which really shouldn't hamper their attack too much. Ja'Marr Chase is going to be plenty busy while Chase Brown pounds away on the ground. As long as Cincy can contain Maxx Crosby, they'll put up points with minimal issue.
Gardner Minshew won't be able to keep up, not for long anyway. Las Vegas' historically bad rushing attack affords them minimal play action boost and even less balance. Credit to the journeyman QB for having them relatively competing each week. Brock Bowers will pop against a defense that struggles versus tight ends but every other pass catcher is a dart throw.
Bengals should have no problem winning at home, once again resuscitating hopes that they'll be able to make a playoff push.
Fantasy Starts: Brock Bowers, Chase Brown, Ja'Marr Chase
Fantasy Sits: Alexander Mattison
Sleepers: Trayveon Williams
Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) at Cleveland Browns
Jameis Winston, your encore. The man diced the Swiss cheese Ravens secondary, but draws a much tougher matchup against the Jim Harbaugh led Chargers. They get after the quarterback and rarely get beaten too badly by opposing wideouts, so Jameis will need to be on his best.
Nick Chubb will be a key factor in pulling the 'upset'. If he can give the Browns some second and shorts to open up the playbook, it'll go a long way toward helping Winston settle in.
LA's offense has seemingly flip-flopped over the last few games, transitioning from a ground-heavy attack to a much more pass happy one. JK Dobbins has been significantly less efficient, while Justin Herbert seems to be fully healthy and clicking with his not-so-flashy pass catchers. Cleveland is tougher to beat through the air, so it'll be curious to see how those splits work out. Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome II are going to challenge the Chargers receivers.
Those defensive matchups are going to be critical for Cleveland, and with Jameis actually showing the capability of moving the ball, no reason to not pick them at home here.
Fantasy Starts: Nick Chubb, Ladd McConkey
Fantasy Sits: Quentin Johnston
Sleepers: Jerry Jeudy
New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
Had to be one box of raisins in the Halloween bag. Good news about this game is that we'll get to see Drake Maye suit up, as the rookie cleared concussion protocol yesterday. Bad news for him is that Tennessee's rocking the top defense in the NFL, overall and against the pass. He'll need some clean pockets and running lanes for Rhamondre Stevenson to get it done.
On the flip side, Mason Rudolph will be making his presence known for the Titans. Hopes were a little irrationally high for him and have quickly come crashing down to Earth. Calvin Ridley should continue to draw insane volume but Christian Gonzalez is going to make him work to earn anything with it. Tony Pollard is expected to play but will be well less than 100%. Julius Chestnut could cut into his workload some.
With Maye flying a little higher than Rudolph right now, let's get New England on the upset. Don't expect to see this one on your RedZone very often.
Fantasy Starts: Patriots Defense
Fantasy Sits: Patriots Receivers
Sleepers: Julius Chestnut
Washington Commanders (-4.5) at New York Giants
Tasty NFC East duel, with the Commanders looking to keep hold of their divisional lead. Jayden Daniels is fully healthy, right in time to draw one of the league's top pass defenses. Dexter Lawrence and Brian Burns are a huge part of that, quickly collapsing pockets on opposing passers. Daniels mobility is going to be a key factor. If they can't contain him, it's going to be problematic.
Keep an eye on that hammy, but Brian Robinson Jr. should continue his streak of strong play with the G-Men struggling against the run. It's been a really impressive second stint for the third rounder from Alabama. Austin Ekeler has some value for fantasy as well with B-Rob being a little banged up.
Almost two years since Daniel Jones has thrown for a touchdown in MetLife Stadium. Is that going to change today? The Commanders allowed a bunch of passing scores early on, but have clamped down in that category recently. Thinking Malik Nabers should be able to break through but low expectations for this passing attack.
Rookie running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. has been a revelation for New York, seizing the job when former RB1 Devin Singletary went down a few weeks ago with an injury. He's a reliable play against a porous run stopping bunch, especially when one considers the alternative is DJ throwing the ball.
Commanders stay sharp, but this won't be a layup. Smelling a backdoor cover by the Giants in a game that'll look much closer in the box score than reality.
Fantasy Starts: Brian Robinson Jr., Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Fantasy Sits: Devin Singletary
Sleepers: Austin Ekeler
New Orleans Saints (-7.5) at Carolina Panthers
Well, at least Derek Carr is back. Seriously, how bad is a game when one can be legitimately excited about the return of Derek Carr? He'll have the Saints looking competent offensively for the first time in a few weeks, with a perfect warmup game against an atrocious Carolina defense. Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara are going to be busy.
And the Panthers... Diontae Johnson's now gone, leaving Bryce Young with Xavier Leggette, Jonathan Mingo and Jalen Coker to throw the ball too. And Chuba's going to rack up carries as long as the game script permits. Huh.
Saints, handily.
Fantasy Starts: Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Chuba Hubbard, Saints Defense
Fantasy Sits: Derek Carr
Sleepers: Taysom Hill, Jalen Coker
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)
A pretty baffling line here, given the quality of Denver's defense and the terrible-ness of Baltimore's. The Lamar effect I guess, though the MV3 hopeful was dealing with a back injury during the week. His health is going to be a critical thing to monitor.
Even with a healthy Jackson, not sure how successful he'd be against Patrick Surtain II and company. Derrick Henry needs to be a factor on the ground, helping draw in the safeties to open things up over the top. Feeling some hero ball on deck from #8 though, being forced to take what the defense gives him and often with his legs.
How's Bo Nix going to fare against this 32nd ranked D? Michael Pierce is now on the IR, which'll help Javonte Williams get going in the run game and further boost a play action that had been clicking. Thinking Courtland Sutton will be productive, with Devaughn Vele and Troy Franklin surely providing a frustrating pickup or two. Excuse the Ravens-fan bias.
In all seriousness, Baltimore doesn't deserve to be giving 9.5 points. Let's take Denver to cover, but the Ravens won't drop this one at home. Expect a weird finish.
Fantasy Starts: Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton, Lamar Jackson
Fantasy Sits: Rashod Bateman
Sleepers: Isaiah Likely
Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)
The Jaguars are very fortunate that Brian Thomas Jr.'s injury won't hold him out. With Christian Kirk on the IR and Gabe Davis set to be a game time decision, it was about to be a pathetic pass catching core traveling up from Duval. Thomas is going to need to be special if they have a hope of pulling off the comeback.
Don't hold your breath. Jacksonville is objectively bad and the Eagles appear to be peaking. Jalen Hurts' confidence has returned with AJ Brown and Devonta Smith while Saquon Barkley continues to plug away from the backfield. They're going to march all up and down the field Sunday.
Possibly my favorite cover of the week. Philly by domination at home, possibly covering the over single-handedly.
Fantasy Starts: AJ Brown, Saquon Barkley, Brian Thomas Jr.,
Fantasy Sits: Tank Bigsby
Sleepers: Philadelphia Defense
Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5)
Two teams that want to declare themselves contenders in the NFC! Really fun matchup in the desert for us.
The heartbreaking Hail Mary was the storyline, but the Bears offense was pathetic for 75% of their game versus the Commanders. Caleb Williams can't bring that into Arizona and expect to pick up a win. The Cardinals defense isn't great against the run or pass, so look for them to try and establish D'Andre Swift early and while looking to get DJ Moore going again.
Can't count Kyler out though, not after these last few weeks. As much crap as I've talked on him, the kid has been clutch. Chicago's defense is going to give him some trouble, so not expecting him to go crazy, but it shouldn't be an 11/25 for 100 yards kind of performance-- not if Trey McBride or Marvin Harrison Jr. have anything to say about it.
Arizona hadn't won back to back games since December of 2021, a monkey they got off of their back last week. Something tells me they're just not ready to make it three straight. This Bears defense should give them trouble while the offense does enough to pull it out. Not thinking it'll be as fun as we're hoping for either, unfortunately.
Fantasy Starts: D'Andre Swift
Fantasy Sits: James Conner
Sleepers: Chicago Defense, Roschon Johnson
Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Green Bay Packers
Fireworks. That's what this game could, and should, provide us. Jordan Love's set to play, bringing all the chaos with him. Touchdowns, turnovers and just general excitement. Brett Favre 2.0.
The Lions pass defense is one that Love can have success against, especially with Aidan Hutchinson not out there to chase him from the pocket. Jayden Reed is his go-to between the 20's, while Romeo Doubs has emerged as the red zone guy. Christian Watson's the boom or bust in between while Tucker Kraft's overtaken Luke Musgrave as the TE1. Pick your poison Jordan, as long as you're healthy. Josh Jacobs won't run well against a stout front seven.
Detroit is more than equipped to keep up. Jared Goff is on a historically efficient pace under center and it doesn't even feel like he's completely tapped into the potential of his pass catchers. Amon Ra St. Brown is a standout, but Sam LaPorta's got a ways to go in order to catch his rookie numbers. Today will be a big step in the right direction for him against a Packers D that struggles versus the position.
As far as their dynamic backfield goes, Jahmyr Gibbs is the guy to start-- just showing a little more pop than Montgomery. Temper expectations for each against a top 10 run defense, but you never know when a home run's about to be hit.
This has to be an over game, right? Feels way too exciting not to be. Lions steal it late too, solidifying themselves as the top dogs in the NFC.
Fantasy Starts: Sam LaPorta, Jared Goff, Jordan Love, Jayden Reed
Fantasy Sits: Josh Jacobs
Sleepers: Kalif Raymond
Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Out limp the Seahawks. A banged up offensive line, no DK Metcalf and now Noah Fant is out. Geno Smith has given us some great moments thus far, but things aren't getting easier. Tyler Lockett is due to bounce back from his stinker a week ago while Jaxon Smith-Njigba stays reliable in the intermediate.
If they can get Kenneth Walker III established this week, it'd certainly help. Their top dog mustered just 12 yards on 9 carries against the Bills, providing no balance to their attack. LA isn't great against the run, so it shouldn't be asking much of Walker.
But boy, did the Rams look good against Minnesota. Puka Nacua is back after a minor scare and set to play. Cooper Kupp is 100% and Kyren Williams is a machine. Seattle gets gashed by opposing backs and won't have an answer for Williams on the ground, opening up all the possibilities over the top. Could be a devastating attack from Stafford and the squad.
LA's got this, continuing their trend in the right direction while the Seahawks struggles carry on.
Fantasy Starts: Kyren Williams, Matthew Stafford, Kenneth Walker III
Fantasy Sits: Geno Smith
Sleepers: Colby Parkinson
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)
Upset of the week here! Joe Flacco is back at the starting helm and that's a huge boost for a Colts offense that's loaded with weapons. Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs should be the most involved, but Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell could find a big play or two of their own against one of the most generous pass defenses. Jonathan Taylor should get some volume, and he'll do some good things with it, but this is a Flacco kind of night.
What's Sam Darnold going to do about it? His Vikings have dropped two straight after an unlikely 5-0 start and would really hate to extend that streak. Indianapolis also has a defense known for giving up yards, so expecting a big performance from Justin Jefferson.
Curious if #3 Jordan Addison, "will be freed," after a two-catch outing last Thursday drew some Instagram ire. Aaron Jones should also be set for some big numbers against the league's third-worst run D.
Looking for the Colts to take it to Minnesota on Sunday Night Football! The over should also hit with two capable offenses battling it out. Get your popcorn ready for this one.
Fantasy Starts: Joe Flacco, Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, Josh Downs
Fantasy Sits: Either Defense
Sleepers: TJ Hockenson
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) (Monday 11/4)
And we wrap up the week with a far less interesting affair...the shorthanded Bucs and the inevitable Chiefs.
Last week's tight end darling Cade Otton should be in for another stellar outing, as essentially the last man standing in Tampa's passing attack. KC is the second worst group against the position, so look for Cade to cook once again. Don't expect anything from any other pass catcher.
Bucky Irving won't be at full strength if he manages to get onto the field, meaning a lot of touches for Rachaad White and a few more looks for Sean Tucker. The Chiefs stop the run as well as anybody though, so not thinking that'll be an effective attack for the Bucs.
Plus Patrick Mahomes is on the other side. The man doesn't love to cover, but he rarely finds himself on the wrong side of the coin. Tampa is also solid against the run, meaning #15 will be tasked with much of the work on offense-- a task he's more than up to. Travis Kelce is going to be involved as should the perimeter receivers against a weak group of corners.
Chiefs win with relative ease, but as mentioned above, they head to cover. Thinking Tampa manages to squeak inside of -9.5 late.
Fantasy Starts: Cade Otton, Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes
Fantasy Sits: Rachaad White
Sleepers: Justin Watson
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@Choppinglines
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