Week 11 is upon us! The Eagles and Commanders didn't quite live up to the hype, so hopefully that means we're due for a great Sunday.
Here's our take on all the action:
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) (Thursday 11/14)
Another absolute barn burner for Thursday night, at least on paper, with first place in the NFC East on the line!
Few teams league-wide are flying higher than the Eagles right now, rounding into form on both sides of the ball. AJ Brown and Devonta Smith are healthy and the offense is humming as a result. Even if Marshon Lattimore plays this week, each will have opportunities to shine. Saquon Barkley will get a good bit of work too as he seeks to revisit the end zone for the first time in a while.
Big moment for rookie Jayden Daniels; can the #2 pick establish himself as a true player in the NFC? Average performances against the Ravens and Steelers suggest that he'll probably have some issues against this ascending Philly defense, especially if Brian Robinson Jr. can't get things going on the ground. Love Zach Ertz in a revenge game with the Commanders receivers having tougher matchups on the perimeter.
Really high on the Eagles here at home. They're playing good football all around and have been in moments like this before. Learning experience for Washington as they continue to take some licks from the big boys.
Fantasy Starts: AJ Brown, Saquon Barkley
Fantasy Sits: Brian Robinson Jr.
Sleepers: Zach Ertz
Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at Chicago Bears
Kicking off Sunday with a substantially less exciting NFC North battle, with the Packers returning from a bye to face a free falling Bears squad.
Seriously, everything in Chicago is going wrong. The offense, which showed so much promise at the beginning of October, has completely gone down the toilet. Blocking, passing, catching, coaching-- all shit. D'Andre Swift has managed to maintain some level of decency through the downfall but this'll be a tough ask of him.
On the other hand, Green Bay hasn't really looked great over the last month. To their credit, they're 2-1 over that stretch, but a closer examination shows that record's composed of tight wins over the Jaguars and Texans mixed in with a demolition in Detroit-- not that impressive. Jordan Love has been somewhat to blame, thanks to some pretty poor decision making overall. Turnovers have hampered him and that's one thing the Bears can do.
If Love can avoid costly mistakes though, somebody will be open for him against a secondary that's fading in frustration. Josh Jacobs will make good use of an incoming heavy workload.
Packers win this one, continuing Matt LaFleur's undefeated run against their divisional foes. You have to think Caleb Williams and his talented receivers get it figured out at some point...but not this week.
Fantasy Starts: Josh Jacobs, Tucker Kraft
Fantasy Sits: DJ Moore
Sleepers: Chicago Defense, Cole Kmet
Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-13.5)
Slaughter.
You saw what the Lions did to Tennessee, right? 52-14? This Jaguars team, with Mac Jones starting at quarterback, is worse. Fire up all your Lions with confidence and maybe even tease this up to -16.5 or -19.5.
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| Photo: ESPN |
Sorry Jags fans.
Fantasy Starts: Amon Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs
Fantasy Sits: Travis Etienne Jr.
Sleepers: Lions Defense
Minnesota Vikings (-6.5) at Tennessee Titans
Speaking of those Titans...this game is a little more interesting than the line suggests.
Quarterback play is going to be a huge factor, with two guys seemingly trending in opposite directions. Will Levis was abysmal before suffering a shoulder injury a few weeks ago but had one of his finer starts a week ago against a stingy Chargers defense. This Minnesota group is much more generous through the air but rushes the passer like few other teams. Levis will need to get the ball out quick or their could be trouble.
Not expecting either team to run the ball much, with the Vikings boasting the #2 rush defense and Tennessee not too far behind. That means Sam Darnold is going to need to deliver, versus the top passing unit no less. It's a daunting task for the fading QB but he's got the weapons to elevate him. Justin Jefferson's going to modestly bounce back while Jordan Addison contributes some. Not so high on TJ Hockenson but do you really have a better fantasy option?
Leaning toward the Titans covering at home. Darnold's too unreliable and they should be able to hang offensively. Not a fun game but one that'll provide some wonky highlights. And an under.
Fantasy Starts: Justin Jefferson
Fantasy Sits: Tony Pollard, Jordan Addison
Sleepers: Titans Defense
Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins (-7.5)
It's good that we won't have to suffer through Desmond Ridder in this game, at least for a few quarters. Head coach Antonio Pierce announced this week that the Raiders were sticking with Gardner Minshew at the helm, until he gets irritated with his performance and pulls him. What a mess that quarterback room is.
Vegas also can't run the ball, which happens to be an area of strength for Miami's defense. That means Minshew's going to be forced to try and win this with his arm...good luck.
Tua has this Dolphins offense looking competent once again and it feels like they're just at the tip of the iceberg. What a better breakout spot then against this sad team. Devon Achane and Raheem Mostert are going to run wild, helping open up some nice windows for Tagovailoa downfield.
Flood gates. The Raiders just aren't equipped to hang with a team like Miami. Hammer the Fins and take the over.
Fantasy Starts: Miami Defense, Devon Achane
Fantasy Sits: Jakobi Meyers, Alexander Mattison
Sleepers: Jaylen Wright
Los Angeles Rams (-5.5) at New England Patriots
Smells like a dog.
Drake Maye has the Patriots looking very competent with the ball. Rhamondre Stevenson should be able to produce on the ground which'll buy some time and space for the rookie quarterback to work with. It's a dart throw on who Maye will be throwing the ball too but really thinking New England won't have trouble moving the ball.
Will Matthew Stafford be able to keep up? They couldn't find the end zone last week and now are traveling across the country to face a defense that's getting healthy in some crucial areas. Kyren Williams won't have a field day with Christian Barmore back in the middle of that D line and Christian Gonzalez is going to give Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua trouble on each play. Some great battles to watch on this side of the ball.
Taking the Pats in an upset. The Rams defense isn't anything special and their offense is playing a little too clunky. The Sean McVay advantage over Jerod Mayo gives me some hesitation, but rolling with my gut here.
Fantasy Starts: Rhamondre Stevenson, Puka Nacua
Fantasy Sits: Matthew Stafford
Sleepers: Hunter Henry
Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints (-1.5)
The Jameis Winston homecoming in New Orleans...rest assured we're going to get some weird shit.
After dicing Baltimore in his starting debut for the Browns, Winston quickly came back to Earth with three picks versus the Chargers-- the full Jameis Winston experience. Needless to say, you never know what you're going to get from him. Look for Cleveland to get Nick Chubb going in the run game, which should help create some opportunities in the pass game.
The Saints will need to follow that same recipe if they're going to win a second straight. Alvin Kamara should be actively involved in the run and short pass game, being that they really have nobody else at receiver. Juwan Johnson and Taysom Hill will be occasional safety blankets, with Marques Valdes-Scantling epitomizing boom or bust.
Taking the Browns in a mild road upset. Better defense and a little more dynamic of an offense. Jameis could easily muck it up with a bunch of turnovers, but thinking he'll be motivated to stick it to a team that didn't want to give him a chance.
Fantasy Starts: Cedric Tillman, Nick Chubb, Alvin Kamara
Fantasy Sits: Derek Carr
Sleepers: Marques Valdes-Scantling, Elijah Moore
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-4.5)
Anthony Richardson's back under center for Indianapolis, which is a prudent move given how pedestrian Joe Flacco had them looking over the last two weeks. Sink or swim time for last year's #4 pick, who's really failed to get going for any consistent stretch this season. Tough assignment for him in the passing game, even with Michael Pittman Jr. back in the fold.
Luckily for him, the Jets love to give up yards on the ground-- and not just to running backs. Jonathan Taylor's going to continue his hot stretch while AR-15 helps chip away as well. No team's allowed more rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks than Gang Green; just dropping that there.
Breece Hall should be able to go toe-to-toe with Taylor though, with the Colts also sucking at stopping the run. In theory, it'll open the play action for Aaron Rodgers and allow him to hit some big plays down the field, but we know the reality: the dude is washed. If he fails to put up respectable numbers in this matchup, that'll be all the confirmation I need.
The Colts should have no trouble covering +4.5 as long as they don't try to get too cute in the passing game. This isn't the secondary to try it against and they should have no trouble getting JT rolling. Not positive we're thinking upset yet, but looking for Indy to hang.
Fantasy Starts: Jonathan Taylor, Breece Hall
Fantasy Sits: Josh Downs
Sleepers: Braelon Allen
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The gem of the one o'clock block. What a battle this is going to be.
Can Lamar Jackson shake the grip that Mike Tomlin has over him? The two-time MVP's gone 1-3 in starts versus Pittsburgh, throwing just 4 touchdowns to 7 interceptions. Not good. But this appears to be a different Lamar, firing on all cylinders and getting the most out of his guys. Derrick Henry will be featured early and often while their tight ends enjoy the absence of Alex Highsmith.
Got to give credit to Russell Wilson; despite all the ridicule, the man's stuck to his guns and is playing some high quality football since returning from a preseason injury. It's jump started a Steelers group that was winning in spite of their quarterback play, unleashing George Pickens as the big time receiver everyone knew he could be. Dude's going to eat on this Baltimore secondary...especially Kyle Hamilton out. Mike Williams should be good for another big play or two also.
As an admitted Ravens fan, it's hard to get a read on this game. Pittsburgh is so good at mucking up games and bringing the worst out of Jackson, even when he's riding his highest. Hoping this is an all-time jinx, but taking Pittsburgh as home dogs.
Fantasy Starts: George Pickens
Fantasy Sits: Najee Harris
Sleepers: Mike Williams, Keaton Mitchell
Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos (-2.5)
To the 4 PM block we go, starting out in Mile High. The Broncos just played the Chiefs as tight as any team, coming within a blocked field goal attempt of the upset. Despite the momentum being high, this does feel like a let down spot for them.
Atlanta's poor play last week is a big part of that. Kirk Cousins has never been spectacular, but he rarely puts up back to back stinkers. Bijan's running really well and Drake London is a week healthier. Not thinking Denver's defense is going to be able to stop them all afternoon.
Also thinking Bo Nix is due for a step back. The rookie's been better than advertised, really showing growth in his performance and chemistry with his receivers in recent weeks, but all first year QBs have games where they're reminded of their place. Atlanta's secondary is decent and should confuse Nix a time or two.
Keep an eye on the Broncos backfield too. Audric Estime seems to have usurped Javonte Williams as the lead dog on early downs, but it's been a volatile situation all year. Jaleel McLaughlin is still going to be involved too, making any of the three desperation plays.
Falcons in a get right game, showing Denver that they're just not ready for the big stage yet.
Fantasy Starts: Bijan Robinson, Darnell Mooney
Fantasy Sits: Javonte Williams
Sleepers: Audric Estime
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)
This game was always going to be an uphill for Seattle, but then their center goes and retires this week? With this front seven on the docket? Spells trouble for Geno.
DK Metcalf should be back, so Smith will have someone to huck it up to while the San Francisco front seven bears down on him. Tyler Lockett will get a few of those looks, while Jaxon Smith-Njigba paces the passing game underneath. Kenneth Walker will get his volume, but not expecting him to do much with it, only further fueling that pass rush.
The Seahawks biggest issue is going to be their porous run defense. They gave up 228 yards on 6.9 a clip the first time these two teams met-- and that was without Christian McCaffery. The man is going to eat on the ground. Hammer that anytime TD. Deebo, Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings are going to have to work a little harder, but they'll get theirs. They'll miss George Kittle though, who's set to sit out with a hamstring injury.
Easiest pick of the week. Niners with no questions asked, throw some CMC props on there too to boost it up.
Fantasy Starts: Christian McCaffery, DK Metcalf, Brock Purdy
Fantasy Sits: Geno Smith
Sleepers: Zach Charbonnet
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
A premier 4:25 matchup to carry us into the evening, with what some are calling an AFC Championship Game preview. Let's not get too ahead of ourselves though.
The Bills have been hot, essentially securing their division already in the midst of their five game winning streak. They're not always pretty, but that almost lends some more credence to each of the victories-- a team built to get it done in a multitude of ways.
Josh Allen has to knock it off with the turnovers if they want to get this win. After a squeaky clean first seven weeks, he's been a been more unpredictable of late. KC's defense is too good to be making mistakes against. James Cook isn't going to have much running room, priming him for his first down day in a while. Amari Cooper should be playing, adding another element to Buffalo's passing attack.
But Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are the standard. 15 straight wins dating back to last year, with nearly all of them in tough, grinding affairs. They know how to win and are damn good at it. Travis Kelce should continue rolling while Kareem Hunt plugs away on the ground.
When it's all said and done, it's going to be a signature victory for Buffalo. This Kansas City team is good, but they're not built to go undefeated. If they sneak this one though...look out.
Fantasy Starts: Kareem Hunt, Josh Allen
Fantasy Sits: James Cook
Sleepers: Dawson Knox
Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)
A Sunday Night tussle with massive AFC wild card implications.
Cincy will be traveling to LA to square off against a defense that hasn't allowed more than 20 points to an opponent. With Tee Higgins back in the fold, and Ja'Marr Chase on a rampage, look for that to change tonight. Joe Burrow's locked in and this is a must win game, so expect him to be sharp. Chase Brown should have modest production. His timeshare with Khalil Herbert will be worth monitoring, but not expecting him to cede much work.
Few quarterbacks have been as efficient as Justin Herbert recently. The kid looks fully healthy and is building up rapport with Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston. Only a matter of time until Josh Palmer catches up. All three should have space to operate against a weak Bengals secondary. And speaking of timeshares, curious to see how the JK Dobbins/Gus Edwards split looks this week.
Would love for the Chargers to win, but my gut's saying Bengals in a prime time performance. Love the over too.
Fantasy Starts: Ja'Marr Chase, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey
Fantasy Sits: Gus Edwards
Sleepers: Will Dissly
Houston Texans (-7.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Wrapping up week eleven with a real stinker: the battle for the lone star. Or something like that.
With how they've been playing lately, it's almost impossible to trust the Texans to cover this line. But then you look back at the Cowboys performance against Philadelphia and it's all so clear. This Dallas team is absolute dog shit. Look for Joe Mixon to run all over them, possibly single-handedly outscoring them.
Texans win, approach the line as you will.
Fantasy Starts: Joe Mixon
Fantasy Sits: Jake Ferguson
Sleepers: John Metchie III
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@Choppinglines
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