Coming to the realization that we'll be one-third of the way through the season after this week...it moves faster and faster ever year. Really unsettling. All the more reason to soak up and enjoy each and every second possible, hopefully hitting some bets in the process.
We're here to give you a shove in some direction or another, let's push ahead:
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks (Thursday 10/10)
Heavily contested NFC West matchup to kick things off on Thursday and we're here for it!
Definitely feels like a must win for San Francisco, as a loss would send them to 2-4 and 0-3 in division. Brock Purdy should be able to throw it around some against a banged up secondary, likely targeting Deebo early on with Aiyuk coming off a monster day. After seeing what Giants' rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. did to Seattle last week, look for Jordan Mason to be a consistent force too.
But the Niners defense has their own issues. The front seven gets after the QB, which is important against Geno Smith, but the back end are also shorthanded. Not fun against the Seahawks' trio of receivers. Geno will put up some yardage, but a lack of balance will ultimately slow this offense. Not expecting a super productive day from Kenneth Walker II versus this stingy run D.
As mentioned above, San Fran cannot afford to drop this. Rest assured, they won't, winning in Seattle with relative ease. Thinking the over squeaks out too.
Fantasy Starts: Deebo Samuel, DK Metcalf, Brock Purdy
Fantasy Sits: Kenneth Walker
Sleepers: Zach Charbonnet
Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears (-2.5) (London)
Jaguars in London on a Sunday morning. If one has to be subjected to them playing, this feels like the only way.
Jacksonville didn't necessarily look good last week over Indianapolis, but they got their first win which is all that matters. Trevor Lawrence did play well but faces a much more difficult assignment in Chicago. Not thinking he'll be posting 371 passing yards again. Between Christian Kirk and explosive rookie Brian Thomas Jr., whoever draws Jaylon Johnson less will have the lion's share of the receiving. Evan Engram could return too, something to keep an eye on.
The Bears' run defense isn't good, but Travis Etienne Jr. doesn't seem to be either. Couple that with the tough grass of Tottenham's field and count me out on this whole backfield-- for both teams really, as the Jags excel at slowing opposing backs.
Their secondary though, not so much. They're going to struggle mightily to contain the three-headed monster that is DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze unless their pass rush can get home. Not impossible, but Caleb Williams has found a way to ball out lately despite constant pressure. Won't change here.
Bears win what should be a relatively close game. With the field conditions and one good defense out there, we're taking the under as well.
Fantasy Starts: DJ Moore, Caleb Williams
Fantasy Sits: Travis Etienne Jr.
Sleepers: Tank Bigsby
Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers (-5.5)
First of many tasty dogs this week. Arizona is riding high into Wisconsin, fresh off a huge comeback win over San Francisco. A key part of that was the defense forcing some turnovers, possibly a sign that things are coming together for the previously morose group under Jonathan Gannon. Should be some more opportunities against Jordan Love, whose thrown 5 interceptions in three games.
But Love's going to throw for some yards too, especially with his entire arsenal of pass catchers looking to suit up. His ball distribution and array of targets make it hard to pin point any receivers as a result, outside of Jayden Reed, who seems to have emerged as the alpha. Really high floor for Josh Jacobs, who should rumble routinely against this unit that struggles to stop the run.
The weekly question on every Cardinals fan's mind has to be, "what Kyler are we going to get?" You could realistically ask that between every series with how volatile the short quarterback's been. When he's on, it's a really impressive, dual-threat showing. But when it's off, it barely resembles professional football.
They need to keep Marvin Harrison Jr. involved, point blank. Two catches a game should not be all he's mustering. Trey McBride will be busy too versus a Packers' defense that's generous to the tight ends. James Conner will at least be a workhorse, but his running lanes may be few and far between.
Arizona feels like a fun cover play, possibly even via backdoor after letting Jordan Love throw it around early. Leaning over as well, albeit with less conviction.
Fantasy Starts: Josh Jacobs, Jayden Reed, Trey McBride
Fantasy Sits: Christian Watson
Sleepers: Greg Dortch
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
It doesn't really make any sense organizationally, but Joe Flacco should be starting for the Colts this weekend. Assuming former first rounder Anthony Richardson's good to go, he'll almost certainly be back under center to put his work on display for the team. But per my eyes, Flacco had this offense humming by comparison. Old man's still got it.
Whoever's at QB for Indy will be down some key guys. Michael Pittman Jr. won't be playing, while Josh Downs and Jonathan Taylor will be less than 100%, if they're even able to make it out there. Tennessee has been elite against the pass too, really showing good chemistry in their mostly-new secondary.
Anytime you play against Will Levis, you'll have a chance. The man has some really bright flashes, which he'll then follow up with some of the most maddening turnovers you could witness. Deandre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley will be open much of the afternoon for Levis, but what's he going to give back to the Colts? Tony Pollard will be busy.
With Richardson on track to play, it's hard to trust Indianapolis in this spot. It should be a competitive game, but the Titans offense should have enough to put this one away at home.
Fantasy Starts: Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley
Fantasy Sits: Anthony Richardson
Sleepers: Chig Okonkwo
Houston Texans (-7.5) at New England Patriots
Drake Maye may provide a spark for the Patriots. Demario Douglas can play, Ja'Lynn Polk looks like he has potential and Kendrick Bourne is back. Rhamondre Stevenson remembered how to hold onto the ball and the defense held Miami to just 15 points.
But this ain't the week. Houston looked lost without Nico Collins, but they're still plenty loaded on offense to figure it out. Joe Mixon might be playing, which wouldn't hurt. Cam Akers isn't anything special. Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell should be peppered.
Texans win and cover, though it shouldn't be a blowout. Tough matchup for Maye's debut versus a team that's establishing themselves among the class of the AFC.
Fantasy Starts: Tank Dell, Texans Defense, Rhamondre Stevenson
Fantasy Sits: Hunter Henry
Sleepers: Ja'Lynn Polk, Tyquan Thornton
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) at New Orleans Saints
Another first timer hitting the NFL scene, with Spencer Rattler filling in for an injured Derek Carr. One of the brighter performers this preseason seems amped up for the moment, already talking up his connection with WR1 Chris Olave. Tampa Bay has a secondary that'll facilitate opportunities for them to hook up. Very interested to see what the kid's got.
Look for Alvin Kamara to get a lion's share of carries to help the rookie out, with Jamaal Williams and Taysom Hill likely to get some extended work. New Orleans needs to control possession to keep Rattler from having to play catch up while keeping the Bucs potent offense on the sideline.
Hard to play much better than Baker Mayfield did in the first half last Thursday, absolutely dicing the Falcons before a slow second half derailed them. Dennis Allen's defense is a tricky one, but they do surrender a good bit of passing yards. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans have potential for big days. Still front seven for Bucky Irving to run into for his first official NFL start.
If Tampa is any bit as good as they want people to believe, they need to smoke Spencer Rattler and the Saints. Thinking it'll be more on the anxious/nauseating side, but a win that covers while maintaining the under.
Fantasy Starts: Chris Godwin, Mike Evans
Fantasy Sits: Rashid Shaheed
Sleepers: Jamaal Williams, Jalen McMillan
Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5)
Welcome back AJ Brown and Devonta Smith, along with it the once-dominant Eagles offense? The unit's looked bad ever since returning from Brazil, a performance that had some flaws of it's own. Perfect chance to showcase it against this spiraling opponent.
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| Photo: Bill Streicher/ USA Today |
Cleveland's a sad spot to be right now. The defense looks uninspired, but not so much as their handsy quarterback. He'll be seeing a lot of Jalen Carter this afternoon, as Kevin Stefanski painstakingly trots him out for possession after sad possession.
Philly isn't great at stopping the run, so in theory the platoon of Jerome Ford and D'Onta Foreman could get something going for the sake of balance, but hasn't worked lately. Amari Cooper will probably somehow muster 50 or more yards, while Jerry Jeudy continues to fade into the background of the NFL.
It's hard to trust the Eagles, but the spread's this high for a reason. They're healthier, at home and Nick Sirianni has never led them to a loss after a bye. Even if for just a week, the ship feels righted. Eagles win.
Fantasy Starts: AJ Brown, Amari Cooper
Fantasy Sits: David Njoku, Dallas Goedert
Sleepers: Kenneth Gainwell
Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
What a matchup this intends to be! Beautiful weather in Baltimore for a battle between two star dual-threat quarterbacks.
Jayden Daniels has burst onto the scene for Washington, giving them as much hope as they've had at the position in a decade. He'll need to be on his A-game in the pocket against a ferocious pass rush, but if he's up for the challenge, a relatively weak secondary could give him some windows. Terry McLaurin should be able to continue his hot streak.
As incredible as Daniels has been though, Lamar Jackson's been that and for much longer. He should dice this weak Commanders defense like a Halloween pumpkin, leading to big days for Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman. Derrick Henry's going to get his as well, but look for him to improve as the game goes.
Points should be plentiful, with so much offensive talent on the field and exploitable spots in each defense. But John Harbaugh beats rookie quarterbacks and the Ravens win, especially at home. Baltimore takes it and the over.
Fantasy Starts: Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, Terry McLaurin
Fantasy Sits: Isaiah Likely
Sleepers: Noah Brown, Rashod Bateman
Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) at Denver Broncos
Moving into the four o'clock block with two teams battling for second in the AFC West. The Chargers are coming off of a very well-timed bye, having many key guys down with injuries. They should return to as close to 100% as you'd expect a team to be, which means a heavy rushing attack with a few passes mixed in. Denver's elite secondary is going to smother LA's sad bunch of receivers.
This Bo Nix experience has been a wild one. Dude's definitely a competitor whose seizing his opportunity, but this is a tough defense for the rookie to challenge. Sean Payton's going to need to draft up a plan to get the ball out of his hands quick and have him moving in the pocket because Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack are coming. The backfield's a total crapshoot.
Great coaching duel between Harbaugh and Payton. Two great defenses and two offenses that have ample room for improvement. Call me crazy, but let's roll Denver at home plus the under.
Fantasy Starts: JK Dobbins, Chargers defense
Fantasy Sits: Any Chargers receiver
Sleepers: Lil'John Humphrey, Kimani Vidal, Hayden Hurst
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Really sad unit being fielded by the Raiders these days. No Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers or Michael Mayer, leaving Aidan O'Connell with Brock Bowers, Tre Tucker and some running backs. While not the biggest proponent of this Steelers' defense, this is a unit they can contain.
Justin Fields needs to string together something nice to instill some confidence in the coaching staff that he can be the guy moving forward. He must find #98 Maxx Crosby every snap, otherwise things could go south in a hurry. Najee Harris could have a good game, but it's hard to trust him. Jaylen Warren's back and worth a look.
This would be a really bad loss for Pittsburgh, not thinking the short-handed Raiders have enough to pull it off. Under plays too, with Vegas boasting a pretty strong defense.
Fantasy Starts: Brock Bowers, Najee Harris
Fantasy Sits: Zamir White
Sleepers: Jaylen Warren
Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Dallas Cowboys
The gem of the afternoon slate. Detroit rolls into Big D rested off the bye, looking to take advantage of a defense that's riddled with injuries. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs should each have room to run, opening up the play action game for Jared Goff against a secondary that's been quietly solid. It might not matter much if they can't stop the run.
Dak Prescott and his passing attack should be able to keep up though. As solid as the Lions' defense has been, they do give up a lot of yards through the air-- which is exactly what the Cowboys do best. CeeDee is going to lead the way, but Jalen Tolbert should draw plenty of action. Jake Ferguson's become a real safety blanket too.
Detroit's the better team, more rested and healthier. There's just something in my gut that says Dallas will not fall to 0-3 at home. Rolling with the Cowboys and a tight under-- Jerry's favorite.
Fantasy Starts: CeeDee Lamb, Dak Prescott, Jahmyr Gibbs
Fantasy Sits: Jared Goff
Sleepers: Jalen Tolbert
Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) at Carolina Panthers
That Andy Dalton style of football is pretty damn uninspiring. Sad to say for Panthers fans that it's probably the better option. They won't be throwing the ball very much versus Atlanta's top 10 pass defense, especially not if they fall behind early and are forced to. Establishing Chuba Hubbard is a priority and possibility against the much softer run stopping unit.
It might not matter regardless. Captain Kirk just came off an extended break and a 509 yard passing performance. The man's riding high into this matchup with one of the weaker pass D's. Even with the run game sputtering some, Cousins will be able to do more then enough, regularly connecting with whoever's most open between Drake London and Darnell Mooney.
Falcons don't lose this one, adding one more chapter of sadness to this David Tepper tenure. And the over.
Fantasy Starts: Kirk Cousins, Drake London, Chuba Hubbard
Fantasy Sits: Diontae Johnson
Sleepers: Ray-Ray McCloud III
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at New York Giants
My only guess onto why this game was ever deemed a good choice for Sunday Night Football was the Ja'Marr Chase- Malik Nabers connection. It feels like a reach at best but nothing else stands out.
Worst part is, Nabers isn't even suiting up for it. This'll mark the second game the rookie phenom's had to miss with a concussion, a development you don't like to see. The Giants are a much more explosive offense with him on the field, but they managed decently in Seattle. Darius Slayton was a monster and Tyrone Tracy Jr. ran wild-- both things that could be replicated against Cincy. If Daniel Jones stays locked in, it's an exploitable matchup.
Joe Burrow's down for a shootout though, as evidenced by his recent 41-38 loss to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Burrow picked apart Baltimore's pass defense until a late pick doomed the team. New York poses a tougher test on that front, but will be missing star edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux, who helps speed up opposing QB's in the pocket. Ja'Marr Chase has some targets coming his way.
Bengals are in desperation mode and have no reason to lose. The G-Men should make it interesting throughout though, finding some magic against Cincy's weak defense. Let's take New York to cover, but Cincinnati goes home winners.
Fantasy Starts: Ja'Marr Chase, Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Fantasy Sits: Zack Moss
Sleepers: Theo Johnson
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at New York Jets (Monday 10/14)
Our first visual into life without Robert Saleh in New York. Will the grass or the gang be greener?
One thing is for certain: Aaron Rodgers is going to be running for his life behind this bad offensive line. Buffalo might not stop the run well, but they can get after the QB. Not sure if it's a Nathaniel Hackett thing, but look for that to be problematic for the Jets all evening on Monday.
In theory, Breece Hall should finally be able to get going. But the reality is murkier behind that aforementioned bunch of bad blockers. Braelon Allen's looked more explosive at times too, failing to build up much momentum as well. Few opportunities better than this one, as the Bills give up 144 a game on the ground.
Josh Allen looked very bad last week against a Houston secondary that's not as good as New York's. It'd be hard for him to complete much less than 30% of his passes, but not fully convinced it'll be that much better. James Cook being less than 100% is concerning and Khalil Shakir's firmly questionable. So many question marks on this offense.
Originally was thinking Bills, and personally wouldn't mind seeing New York flounder a little more, but this isn't a plus matchup for them. Jets win an ugly one in prime time to give some illusion of a bounce back.
Fantasy Starts: Jets defense, Bills defense
Fantasy Sits: Dalton Kincaid
Sleepers: Braelon Allen
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@Choppinglines
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