Lucky week seven coming at us, with only two teams on byes, limiting our fantasy headaches. A chalky week six slate has upsets on the mind, will this lineup be able to deliver?
Denver Broncos (-4.5) at New Orleans Saints (Thursday 10/17)
Not really sure of anyway to hype this one up. No Chris Olave or Rashid Shaheed to handicap a Saints offense already dealing with Spencer Rattler at the helm. Patrick Surtain II won't be playing for Denver, which could result in some softer matchups for...Bub Means?
Huh.
Both teams should be able to run the ball some, but points will surely be at a premium. You probably could spend your Thursday night more productively.
Broncos win in a snoozer.
Fantasy Starts: Denver Defense, Javonte Williams, Alvin Kamara
Fantasy Sits: Courtland Sutton
Sleepers: New Orleans Defense
New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5) (London)
The whole slate can't be this bad, right? And how can the NFL feel good about this product they're exporting, subjecting London to consecutive Jaguars games? Feels like malpractice.
Doug Pederson is truly a dead man walking, almost anticipating a pink slip upon his return to the States. A loss overseas would all but guarantee that. Trevor Lawrence has looked slightly more competent in recent weeks which should be able to continue against a banged up Patriots defense. With Travis Etienne Jr. out, Tank Bigsby's set to be the lead back, but don't be surprised if D'Ernest Johnson cuts into his workload.
Real plus matchup for Drake Maye in his second career start, with no team allowing more passing yards then Jacksonville. His connection with Demario Douglas was particularly strong in his debut, so don't be surprised to see them run it back. Getting Rhamondre Stevenson back won't hurt things either, though the Jags can boast a stout run D.
Very winnable game for New England. Jacksonville will be less jet lagged after spending the week in England and has the better roster, but they're playing so flat. Let's take the Pats to cover and Jaguars to win, quite possibly sending Pederson off to pasture victorious.
Fantasy Starts: Demario Douglas, Tank Bigsby
Fantasy Sits: Rhamondre Stevenson
Sleepers: Drake Maye, D'Ernest Johnson
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
Here we go, some actual potential with this showdown between two large birds of prey. These Falcons though, flying high after winning three straight.
Kirk Cousins has been a key part of that, looking substantially more comfortable on his recovered Achilles while connecting regularly with Drake London and Darnell Mooney. As long as he steers clear of Devon Witherspoon, he should have no trouble continuing that this Sunday. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier each should have ample room to work on the ground against a weak, and injured front seven.
Will Geno Smith be able to keep pace? The Seahawks' quarterback has put up some big numbers at times, but his consistency hasn't always been there. Atlanta has a decent secondary that could take advantage of any miscues from Smith. Kenneth Walker should be able to rumble though, which would help control the clock in hopes of a road upset.
Not sure it'll be enough though, two teams headed in very different directions right now. It'll likely be competitive, but Kirk and Company are going to be too much when push comes to shove. Thinking this'll be a sneaky under too, not thinking Seattle will move the ball that well.
Fantasy Starts: Kenneth Walker, Drake London
Fantasy Sits: Geno Smith
Sleepers: Tyler Allgeier, Jake Bobo
Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (-9.5)
Buffalo should be licking their chops right now. Tennessee has a solid roster, but the void at quarterback has really began to sink them. If Josh Allen can rev up the offense early, it's going to be an impossible assignment for Will Levis to keep pace. One has to wonder when/if we'll see Ryan Tannehill?
Circling back to the Bills though, the acquisition of Amari Cooper was a welcomed boost at receiver. Khalil Shakir's been solid, but he's more suited for a complementary role than the WR1. Might be tough through the air though against the top pass defense in the NFL. The group underwent a major this offseason and the dividends have been paying off.
Buffalo's ground and pound will help set the table for their offense, whether it be James Cook or rookie Ray Davis back there. Both have shined in their chances this season and should again here. Bills win with relative ease.
Fantasy Starts: Bills Running Backs, Tony Pollard
Fantasy Sits: Deandre Hopkins
Sleepers: Julius Chestnut, Ryan Tannehill
Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) at Cleveland Browns
Major litmus test for both teams to show the world where they're at.
Cincinnati's been an offensive powerhouse while handing out points to the opposition like Oprah. Last week's performance against the Giants was a step in the right direction, but it's the Giants. No reason they can't replicate it against this sad Browns attack, that's now missing top receiver Amari Cooper. How much worse can Deshaun Watson look?!
Nick Chubb may be back, which would be a positive but ultimately unnecessary risk for the veteran. Cleveland's seemingly shipping it in for the season already yet still can't seem to bite the bullet and bench their wasted investment. Really giving him every opportunity to succeed; hasn't worked yet.
The Browns defense hasn't been as ferocious as advertised, though they still have some quality pieces across the board. Won't be an easy day for Joe Burrow, but he'll find Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins enough times to rack up some points. Chase Brown should have some room to work while Zack Moss tries to remain relevant in this backfield.
Probably an under-type game. Cleveland isn't scoring and the Bengals should be able to kill some clock by leaning on the run. A win Cincy must, and will, have.
Fantasy Starts: Chase Brown
Fantasy Sits: Jerry Jeudy
Sleepers: Bengals Defense
Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)
Really fun matchup between two budding powerhouses. The Texans are flexing their muscles in the AFC right now, rocking a 5-1 record and rolling on all cylinders. A week of planning for life without Nico Collins had CJ Stroud looking right back to form, as did the return of Joe Mixon. Packers defense is solid, but no reason to think Houston can't move the ball.
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| Photo: Grace Hollars/ USA Today |
Jordan Love's going to let it fly too, really appearing to have found his form over the last 6 quarters or so. The Texans have a nice secondary, but the Packers diverse aerial attack is a challenging one to counter. Throw in the ever steady Josh Jacobs on the ground and it's clear to see why we like the over on this one. Talent everywhere.
A little too much on the visitor's sideline though! Thinking that Houston for + money is a little too tempting to ignore here, stealing a win on the road to improve to 6-1 overall-- firmly atop the sad AFC South. No shame type of loss for Green Bay
Fantasy Starts: Stefon Diggs, CJ Stroud
Fantasy Sits: Tucker Kraft
Sleepers: Romeo Doubs
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)
Here we go Miami, giving us another dose of longing. All this talent on offense and Tyler Huntley in control of it all. Forgive the lack of enthusiasm. Pretty prime opportunity for him against a pretty bad Colts D. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will be open, just a matter of Huntley getting them the ball.
The return of Devon Achane should help too, with the uber dynamic running back returning to action. He'll add the lightning to the thunder that is Raheem Mostert in that backfield. It's a big boost for a group that really needs one.
Big question hanging over Indy is who starts: Joe Flacco or Anthony Richardson? It feels nearly unanimous that Flacco gives them the better chance of winning right now, but they invested a high pick in Richardson-- who has flashed at times. Miami's defense is banged up but decent, won't be a cake walk for whoever gets the nod. But they'll have their full arsenal of receivers to help get the job done.
The Colts are just a little healthier and a little easier to trust right now, so let's take them to win. Going with the over too.
Fantasy Starts: Devon Achane, Josh Downs
Fantasy Sits: Jaylen Waddle
Sleepers: Tyler Goodson
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)
Humongous NFC North battle! The undefeated Vikings are coming off a bye, hosting the reigning divisional champs. Sam Darnold's last two weeks weren't quite MVP caliber, but they've resulted in wins. He gets the Lions at a good time too, as they're freshly learning about life without Aidan Hutchinson.
Hutch doesn't play cornerback though, which is where much of this game will be won. Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison have shined at various points and will get open pretty routinely Sunday. If Detroit's pass rush can't get home, Darnold will make them pay. Aaron Jones, or whoever starts at running back, won't have much room to work against this run stuffing bunch.
Can't sleep on the Lions offense though. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are a premier tandem in the backfield, each living up to their billings early on. Jared Goff had a shaky start but has been pretty dialed in of late, spreading the ball around to his weapons more so than focusing on Amon Ra St. Brown or Sam LaPorta. Feels like the passing attack's just scratching the surface. Minnesota's blitz will be quite a test.
Love Detroit here. Just a team that's been in these big games, where the Vikings are a little new to this whole scene-- at least with Darnold at QB. Lowkey defensive struggle too, securing an under.
Fantasy Starts: Sam LaPorta, Jordan Addison
Fantasy Sits: Aaron Jones
Sleepers: Detroit Defense
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at New York Giants
The Eagles are pretty hard to watch play football right now. Jalen Hurts makes some of the most frustrating mistakes, wasting opportunities to connect with his star receivers. New York's been stingy against the pass too, providing no guarantees for a turnaround today. Dallas Goedert is also sitting out, which takes away Hurts' safety blanket underneath.
But the storyline is Saquon Barkley's "return home". After a semi-salty exit from the Big Apple, Barkley will surely be excited to show out against the team that drafted him. Expect his workload to be a heavy one.
What's Daniel Jones going to bring to counter Philly? Malik Nabers is back from his concussion, a tremendous boost for this offense. Devin Singletary is back as well, though Tyrone Tracy Jr. will certainly be cutting into his formerly large timeshare. If New York can block Jalen Carter, no reason to think they can't have a diverse and decent attack.
Give me the home dogs here. Jones is 2-3 against them all time but has thrown it around well. Their defense is underrated and they should have a decent ground game going too. While Nick Sirianni's Eagles continue to leave us wanting. Leaning toward under, as of typing this.
Fantasy Starts: Malik Nabers, Saquon Barkley,
Fantasy Sits: Devonta Smith
Sleepers: Tyrone Tracy Jr., Daniel Jones
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)
Moving to the afternoon block with one that could deliver some weird moments. The Rams are coming off a bye and should be rested and motivated, while the Raiders just traded one of their best players and have essentially waved the white flag for the season. Hard to trust them this week, especially against a Sean McVay lead team.
Not a ton of insight besides that. Brock Bowers will make a big impact for Vegas, but they're weak besides that. Kyren Williams is going to be a bully for Los Angeles. Rams win and hit the under.
Fantasy Starts: Brock Bowers, Kyren Williams
Fantasy Sits: Jakobi Meyers, Zamir White
Sleepers: Blake Corum
Carolina Panthers at Washington Commanders (-9.5)
Boy, does this feel like points. Two atrocious defenses, one offense that can flat out cook, and a second that can hang a few with Andy Dalton at the reins. Not sure how "competitive" this one will be, but the scoreboard operator should be busy.
Brian Robinson Jr. is looking like he should suit up, priming him for some massive yardage against a terrible run stopping unit. Austin Ekeler will be plenty busy too, especially if Robinson is on a pitch count. And with Caleb Williams now starting to heat up, Jayden Daniels should be spectacular in pursuit of his Rookie of the Year award. He and Terry McLaurin have been connecting beautifully this last month.
Carolina though, not quite as sad as they have been. Not good mind you, but they can move the ball some on offense. While Dan Quinn's defense has looked stronger of late, they're still not a top tier personnel grouping. Diontae Johnson's going to get his through the air, while Chuba Hubbard stays productive on the ground. Probably won't be able to keep up with DC's high flying attack, but it won't be for lack of effort.
Commanders get back on track with a dub, cashing our favorite over of week seven.
Fantasy Starts: Brian Robinson Jr., Diontae Johnson, Terry McLaurin
Fantasy Sits: N/A
Sleepers: Austin Ekeler
Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers (-1.5)
Super Bowl rematch, surprisingly not given a prime time spotlight. The Chiefs are coming off a bye while the Niners got a little extended break after whooping the Seahawks last Thursday.
Brock Purdy was efficient in that TNF victory, connecting deep with Deebo early before peppering George Kittle for the rest of the game. KC has some players in their secondary, but it's going to be tough to matchup with everyone the Niners can throw at you. Jordan Mason is set to play after exiting early last week with an AC joint sprain. Brutal matchup against Chris Jones and this front seven.
Questions about what this Chiefs' offense is going to be able to bring. They've been severely limited by the injuries of Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco, leaning on old heads like Kareem Hunt and Juju Smith-Schuster to fill their place. It's worked okay so far, but San Fran isn't going to let them have it easy. Travis Kelce vs. Fred Warner should provide some fun tussles.
Kansas City may be undefeated, but this isn't a roster worthy of running the table. Got to drop one somewhere and few more understandable spots than on the road against the Niners. Let's take the over too in a surprise shootout.
Fantasy Starts: George Kittle, Travis Kelce
Fantasy Sits: Jordan Mason
Sleepers: Ricky Pearsall
New York Jets (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Life with Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers is officially underway, on the home front and now on the football field. The Jets, in desperate need of a win, travel to the Steel City to square off against an ever scrappy Mike Tomlin-lead team.
Contrary to the urgency surrounding this move, New York never had a shortage of weapons. Garrett Wilson is a star, Allen Lazard and Mike Williams get open enough and Breece Hall's a monster when he has any type of blocking. This Adams move doesn't make them worse, but it really didn't solve their biggest issues-- one of which being the offensive line. Look for TJ Watt to make his presence known to Rodgers early and often.
First time we'll be seeing Russell Wilson under center for Pittsburgh, benching Justin Fields in favor of the two-time Super Bowl starting QB. Given the difficulty this Jets' secondary may present and it could end up being a savvy move by Tomlin. Not sure how many open window's he'll have to throw through, but he's going to have to work with whatever they give him. Najee Harris should be able to follow up his most recent 100-yard outing with another solid performance.
The Jets have done a nice job of convincing us that they're good, but at what point do they need to actually prove it? Under the lights in Pittsburgh is a tough spot to step up and I don't think Gang Green has it in them. Steelers pull the upset in a struggle of a game, for the viewers and players.
Fantasy Starts: Najee Harris, Breece Hall
Fantasy Sits: Allen Lazard, George Pickens
Sleepers: Braelon Allen
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Monday 10/21)
Monday night down in Raymond James Stadium, the site of the Ravens first Super Bowl win in 2001. What a day to be alive and what a game this should be.
Lamar Jackson's balling out right now, getting whatever he wants out of opposing defenses. The pass is working, the legs have always been there...it's just a brilliant culmination right now. The aerial route is the one of least resistance against the Bucs, who've been very generous to opposing wideouts. Big day ahead for Zay Flowers.
Vita Vea is a force on the interior line that should disrupt Baltimore's running game. It'll be interesting to watch how they try to phase him out and get Derrick Henry going. It might not happen early, but the King will pop one or two.
Baker Mayfield should also have success finding his supreme cast of pass catchers versus an underachieving group of Ravens corners. Mike Evans is due for a bounce back, while Chris Godwin really hasn't slowed down all season. Temper expectations for Bucky Irving and Rachaad White against a stout run D.
Not thinking Tampa has enough to hang with Baltimore for a whole 60 minutes. Should be a tightly contested battle that the Ravens pull away in at the end. The over feels safe too, there should be scoring.
Fantasy Starts: Zay Flowers, Mike Evans, Lamar Jackson
Fantasy Sits: Bucky Irving
Sleepers: Rashod Bateman, Cade Otton
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals (Monday 10/21)
Second leg of our Monday double header's going down in the desert. The Chargers aren't the most exciting to watch but they're really well run by Jim Harbaugh. They'll have no problem getting JK Dobbins going and Justin Herbert should also have room to throw, assuming his weak cast of receivers can get open. Relative offensive explosive incoming from LA.
The Cardinals have plenty of talent, but Kyler Murray's damning inconsistency hasn't allowed any of them to shine routinely. The Chargers allow the 6th fewest yards in the league and won't be making it easy for him. James Conner will likely be ineffective, while Marvin Harrison Jr. continues his act as a decoy.
Hoping to be wrong, but Arizona's pretty hard to believe in right now. Figuring for a pretty one sided win by the Chargers, however it wouldn't be shocking for this one to devolve into a fun, highish scoring battle.
Fantasy Starts: JK Dobbins, Trey McBride
Fantasy Sits: James Conner
Sleepers: Greg Dortch
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@Choppinglines
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