The NFL is now in full swing as we enter the second set of matchups for the 2024-25 season. While our picks for week one weren't superb, the time for a turnaround is always at hand. Which is exactly what we intend to do, starting out with a great Thursday nighter...
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-2.5) (Thursday 9/12)
Featuring two AFC East rivals! Both of these teams looked flawed last Sunday, eking out wins over opponents many felt they were superior to. Never apologize for winning in the NFL though.
Josh Allen went full hero ball against Arizona, almost single-handedly carrying the team to victory while injuring his left hand in the process. Surely, Sean McDermott would like his star QB to shoulder a little less of the load down in South Beach, so look for James Cook to get more involved-- assuming the game script permits.
Those Cardinals managed to put up 28 points in Orchard Park, really pushing the Bills defense to the limit. It's hard to imagine Tua and his lightning fast arsenal of weapons not doing the same. Tyreek Hill and Devon Achane should feast, while Jaylen Waddle gets his in the passing game too.
One of my favorite overs of the week by far, especially on a short week. Something tells me Buffalo pulls off the slight upset here-- Josh Allen's just a little more trustworthy right now than Tagovailoa.
Fantasy Starts: Devon Achane, Jaylen Waddle, Khalil Shakir
Fantasy Sits: Buffalo defense
Sleepers: Jaylen Wright, Dawson Knox
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
Home opener at Jerry World for the Cowboys, who are going to be fired up after dismantling the Browns. They've won their last sixteen games at AT&T Stadium, which is a trend the Saints don't want to hear about.
Derek Carr and the offense absolutely rolled the Panthers, an accomplishment you take with a grain of salt, but the domination they displayed in doing so was impressive. Will he carry that momentum into this Sunday or will an opportunistic defense make him pay for his newly found confidence? My guess is the latter.
On top of that, Dak and Company are set to get hot. They're averaging over 35 points a game during their home win streak and shouldn't be halted much by New Orleans' D. Quiet starts from Prescott and CeeDee Lamb will be made up for today.
Dallas wins, most likely covering. Big fan of their team over too, currently sitting at 26.5.
Fantasy Starts: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Alvin Kamara
Fantasy Sits: Ezekiel Elliott
Sleepers: Cowboys Defense, Jamaal Williams
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-7.5)
Quite possibly the top game on the entire slate, buried in the one o'clock block. RedZone's going to be loaded.
Three years ago, people would've scoffed at this Mayfield-Goff matchup being billed as 'can't miss TV', but here we are! Both QBs should have big days through the air, with weapons galore on the perimeter. Mike Evans, Amon Ra St. Brown, Chris Godwin, Sam LaPorta-- just to name a few. But Jalen McMillan made a nice debut for Tampa seven days ago, while former first rounder Jameson Williams had an incredibly promising showing of his own. Pick your poison.
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| Photo: Mike Ehrmann/ Getty Images |
Same could be said on the ground too. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are the superior tandem for Detroit, but Rachaad White and Bucky Irving offer a really unique attack for the Bucs. Expect all four to be involved, with somebody likely to catch a hot hand.
The Lions are a great team but -7.5 is a little steep against the reigning NFC South champs. Hammer the over, while Tampa at least covers on the road in what should be a highlight filled battle with future playoff implications.
Fantasy Starts: Amon Ra St. Brown, Baker Mayfield
Fantasy Sits: Jameson Williams,
Sleepers: Cade Otton, Bucky Irving
Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) at Green Bay Packers
Something about the Green Bay Packers with Malik Willis under center...just doesn't pack that same heat. The Titans' castaway has never really strung together any decent stretches of play, which likely won't change today. Indy's defense is suspect, and one he knows well, so if there was a time to show out, this might be it.
Nice group of pass catchers for him to work with. Jayden Reed was the star last Friday, almost assuring a passing of the torch to either Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs this week. Assuming any can have a pass hit them within their catch radius. Josh Jacobs should see a ton of packed boxes.
The inevitable Anthony Richardson roller coaster has already given us one hell of a ride, buckle up for another against this iffy Green Bay D. Although historically inaccurate, Richardson should have some chances to find his talented receivers on the outside. Josh Downs should be back too, one of AR-15's favorite targets during his abbreviated rookie stint.
If the Packers win, it'll be a true testament to Matt LaFleur as a coach. The Colts are far from world-beaters, but they just showed they can hang with CJ Stroud and the Texans. They should dispose of the Malik Willis-led Pack.
Fantasy Starts: Anthony Richardson
Fantasy Sits: Josh Jacobs, Tucker Kraft
Sleepers: Emmanuel Wilson, Josh Downs
New York Jets (-3.5) at Tennessee Titans
Time for Aaron Rodgers to finally get his first win for New York, right?! Truth be told, the man looks old, and this is a Titans' front seven that'll get after the quarterback. Tennessee revamped their secondary in the offseason as well, shining against Caleb Williams last week. Not the layup of a matchup that many are predicting for Rodgers.
The Jets' defense alone could win this game though. After seeing what Will Levis did against a similarly stingy Bears defense, there's little doubt that Gang Green won't be able to shut them down. If Tony Pollard and Ty'Jae Spears can get going, which isn't impossible against the surprisingly poor run stuffing group, it could help keep Tennessee in range of an upset.
But Sauce and the boys are going to shut that down. Jets win and cover a very missable game.
Fantasy Starts: Jets Defense
Fantasy Sits: Calvin Ridley
Sleepers: Ty'Jae Spears
San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) at Minnesota Vikings
This line feels like it got a little inflated from Minnesota's dominant win over a hapless Giants team. The 49ers are a very different devil, on both sides of the ball. Plus Kyle Shanahan knows Sam Darnold well, a former backup out in the bay area. That defense is going to rail him...no matter what Justin Jefferson brings to the table.
No CMC, no problem for San Fran. Jordan Mason's a machine who'll keep this ground game going for the next four-plus weeks. He should shine against a soft front seven. Deebo and Aiyuk have favorable matchups too. Almost feels like a trap how much the Niners stand out.
Don't overthink it. San Francisco by whatever they decide on.
Fantasy Starts: Deebo Samuel, Jordan Mason
Fantasy Sits: Aaron Jones
Sleepers: Jajuan Jennings, Jalen Nailor (Trash Time)
Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) at New England Patriots
Big trap game vibes here. Seattle looked decent overall in the opener versus Denver, but didn't instill overwhelming amounts of confidence. Traveling cross country to a stadium that Geno Smith has some bad memories in is a taller assignment than advertised.
Let's not take this as a hype piece for the Patriots though. Jacoby Brissett looked predictably average, which won't be changing anytime soon. Rhamondre Stevenson offered some reason for optimism and should be the bell cow if the game remains close.
New England's defense would be a big part of that, substantially outperforming expectations by shutting down Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase. The Seahawks have some weapons on offense, but they're clunky and inconsistent at times, plus Kenneth Walker is sitting out. Christian Gonzalez squaring off against DK Metcalf will be fun to see.
Are the winds of the northeast shifting toward a Patriots 2-0 start?
Fantasy Starts: Rhamondre Stevenson, Zach Charbonnet
Fantasy Sits: Seahawks defense
Sleepers: Noah Fant
New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-1.5)
Two running quarterbacks facing off in an NFC East barn burner! Difference is, one's been in the league for five years and has a $160 million dollar contract, while the other is only in his second game. Rest assured, there'll be some weird things happening on the field between these teams.
It's not unfathomable how bad Daniel Jones looked last week, only because that's kind of exactly what he's been putting on tape for the last two seasons. How could Joe Schoen responsibly enter this year with him under center? Malpractice. If there's any secondary to show up against though, it's Washington. Giants receivers are going to be open all day, we'll see how it goes from there.
Jayden Daniels looked shaky as a passer, but was a real weapon in the run game. After what Sam Darnold just did to the G-Men, he'll also have some much more open windows to work with. A bit hesitant to go all in on Terry McLaurin yet, they need to show some chemistry today. Brian Robinson Jr. is going to get a big workload too.
Nearly an impossible game to predict-- volatility personified. New York's won the last three, so let's roll with that number going up to four. Not a confident play.
Fantasy Starts: Jayden Daniels, Devin Singletary, Malik Nabers
Fantasy Sits: Austin Ekeler
Sleepers: Jalin Hyatt
Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) at Carolina Panthers
Nobody expected the Panthers to be good, but whatever happened against New Orleans last week was a different level of putrid. Couldn't happen to a team with a nicer owner.
Some weird variables in place for the Chargers, traveling cross country for a one o'clock date. Their already depleted receiving core could be without Josh Palmer, opening more chances for Ladd McConkey and... Simi Fehoko. Woof.
JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards are going to pound the rock all afternoon, as Jim Harbaugh outcoaches Dave Canales. Carolina may just get shut out.
Fantasy Starts: Ladd McConkey, JK Dobbins, Chargers defense
Fantasy Sits: Diontae Johnson
Sleepers: Gus Edwards, Quentin Johnston
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5)
Is Deshaun Watson bad or what? Between his performance last week and a brand new sexual assault allegation, I'm unsure of how you can trot him out there with dignity. But here we are. Outside of a big play to Tyreek Hill, Jacksonville's defense looked surprisingly competent against Miami. They definitely won't have to worry about that vertical attack this week.
Trevor Lawrence will be on the move in the pocket though. Myles Garrett should feast on the Jags' offensive line, forcing Lawrence out of his comfort zone. Christian Kirk's due for a bounce back from his 1 catch opener, but it'll be tough sledding with Denzel Ward opposite of him.
Interested to see the timeshare between Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby. Etienne's been pretty inefficient in recent years, while Bigsby looked as fresh as he ever has against the Dolphins. Plus that Etienne goal line fumble... Don't be surprised to see a 50/50 split here, for at least the short-term.
Jaguars should win at home, but it'll be close because of Cleveland's defense. That Browns offense is going to look like a dumpster.
Fantasy Starts: Jaguars defense
Fantasy Sits: Amari Cooper, Trevor Lawrence
Sleepers: Tank Bigsby
Las Vegas Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-8.5)
Tough spot for the Raiders here. Traveling to Baltimore for the home opener against a Ravens team that just fell at the buzzer to the defending champs? Something tells me they're going to be pissed off.
Big Gardner guy, but this is a terrible matchup. The Ravens pass rush looked as good as it has for a while and could force Minshew into some bad decisions. Smells like a Brandon Stephens interception. Zamir White will have a hard time getting established with the presumed game script.
Baltimore's offensive line will be key. The Raiders have some guys on that front seven who'll get after the QB in a heartbeat. If Lamar's flushed out of the pocket all day, again, it could disrupt this offense from developing the rhythm they're capable of. Will Mark Andrews be an extension of the line, yet again?
After seeing what JK Dobbins did to this Vegas defense, Derrick Henry's licking his chops. Should be a productive day at the office for the King.
Ravens by a lot, making a statement in front of the home crowd.
Fantasy Starts: Derrick Henry, Brock Bowers, Lamar Jackson
Fantasy Sits: Mark Andrews
Sleepers: Tre Tucker, Rashod Bateman
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5)
Afternoon slate! The Cardinals very nearly pulled off the upset in Buffalo last week and get the Rams, coming off an OT heartbreaker versus the Lions. Two teams punching above their weight classes, or legit contenders?
We'll find out a lot from this one. Kyler Murray missed some throws and failed to get Marvin Harrison Jr. or Trey McBride going, but he looked decent overall. Getting MHJ involved has to be a priority. James Conner should rumble, after vehemently reasserting himself as the RB1 in the desert.
It's hard to think that Matthew Stafford lets this one get too out of reach at any point. The man looked dialed in against Detroit, even with Puka Nacua going down. Cooper Kupp is a special kind of receiver, that's going to eat some Cardinal today. Kyren Williams will stay busy too.
This over rocks, should be a really fun game. Rams are just a little steadier at this point, so we'll give them the nod on the road.
Fantasy Starts: Cooper Kupp (duh), Matthew Stafford, James Conner
Fantasy Sits: Both defenses
Sleepers: Demarcus Robinson
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at Denver Broncos
Russell Wilson's long awaited return to Denver, squaring off with hated former head coach Sean Payton. Too bad Russ will be on the sidelines, hopefully all padded up, yet inactive. What a scene that was.
His replacement, Justin Fields, was adequate down in Atlanta, not costing Pittsburgh the game-- which is more than he could say much of his time in Chicago. They got Najee going, didn't turn the ball over and played good defense. Steelers football.
They're now road favorites against a team they have no business losing to. Smells like a loss. Mike Tomlin is 24-8 against rookie quarterbacks, a saving grace, but we've seen this too many times in the Steel City.
Bo Nix was far from great in Seattle, but that's a tough atmosphere to make your leap into the league. A friendlier environment against a weaker opponent could spell a slightly better day for the rookie. Javonte Williams needs to be more efficient, not helping his new quarterback much. His work split with Jaleel McLaughlin is a concern for fantasy managers everywhere.
I digress. You won't lose sleep if you miss this game. Broncos win, just because this is a game Pittsburgh loses.
Fantasy Starts: Najee Harris
Fantasy Sits: George Pickens
Sleepers: Jaleel McLaughlin, Justin Fields
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)
Always a fun battle between these two teams. Cincy had a lot of shit to talk about Xavier Worthy this week, for a team that just lost to Jacoby Brissett and the Patriots anyway. Not sure why you try to fire up the defending champs before going into their home opener, but hey.
The Chiefs offense looks really fast, even with news this week that Hollywood Brown is set to miss the entire regular season. Rashee Rice wasn't an enigma, Worthy's speed's translated up, Isiah Pacheco runs so hard. And Travis Kelce's still out there, at least receiving a lot of media attention. Not sure Cincinnati has the pieces to slow them consistently.
And can Joe Burrow keep up? He looked terrible against New England, failing to get any type of rhythm going. Is he still hurt? He surely has a history of it. Could also be rust, between him and Ja'Marr Chase. If they can't figure it out here in Arrowhead, it won't matter what the rest of the offense does.
Kansas City in an angry win. Already 1-0 against the spread this year, about to make that 2-0.
Fantasy Starts: Xavier Worthy, Isiah Pacheco, Rashee Rice
Fantasy Sits: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown
Sleepers: Andrei Iosivas
Chicago Bears at Houston Texans (-6.5)
Not the start Caleb Williams was hoping for last week, especially against a Titans defense that isn't anything special. Houston has some pieces, but they're not a finished product on that side of the ball yet, providing Williams with an opportunity to right the ship on Sunday Night.
Getting D'Andre Swift involved would help with that goal. The Bears couldn't move the ball at all on the ground, only further limiting the offense. Rome Odunze is out and Keenan Allen is a question mark, lending more uncertainty to the budding group.
If CJ Stroud plays up to the level we know he can, Chicago may have no way of keeping up. The reigning Rookie of the Year lived up to the billing in Indy but gets a much tougher assignment here. The Bears defense is ferocious and will challenge him all night on all levels. Joe Mixon will have some room to work, but don't expect him to go nuclear once again.
Houston is just a little too complete of a team to drop this primetime affair. Given some of the question marks the Bears have on the offensive side of the ball, let's say they cover as well.
Fantasy Starts: Joe Mixon, Nico Collins
Fantasy Sits: Cole Kmet, DJ Moore
Sleepers: Texans defense
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
If you watched Kirk Cousins against Pittsburgh last week, how can you feel confident with him standing in the pocket with this Eagles' pass rush bearing down on him? It's going to be a really uncomfortable day for Kirk, as it visually appears that he came back from that Achilles' injury a little early.
Should Cousins play continue to falter, anticipate much less production from Drake London and Kyle Pitts, while Bijan Robinson churns away on the ground. You have to wonder if Michael Penix Jr. could spell him for a week or two, if the tape looks bad after this one. Keep an eye on that in Atlanta.
Philly disposed of Green Bay down in Sao Paolo, putting up some points despite the turf monster grabbing ankles all evening. Saquon Barkley should rumble against a defensive front that just let Najee Harris rush for 70 yards (...at 3.5 yards a clip, but the point's the point). Feeling a Devonta Smith game, with AJ Brown likely locked in opposite of AJ Terrell much of the evening. Jalen Hurts will add more with his legs too.
This game felt much more fun eight days ago, but it just doesn't seem like this Falcons team will be up to the task on Monday. Look for the Eagles to win, though -6.5 could be a little steep.
Fantasy Starts: Devonta Smith, Bijan Robinson, Jalen Hurts
Fantasy Sits: Drake London, Kirk Cousins
Sleepers: Eagles defense, Jahan Dotson
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@Choppinglines
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