Cold start to our picks against the spread this season, admittedly, but what a better time then now to turn it around! Some great games for this week three, as well as a handful of duds. Let's jump into things:
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| Photo: Jeff Dean/ AP Photo |
New England Patriots at New York Jets (-6.5) (Thursday 9/19)
Thursday night games are historically a prime time to bury a stinker, which is what this'll likely amount to, but let's not totally count out the Pats just yet. Jacoby Brissett's got them competing through the first two weeks, but this defense should pose a stiff challenge.
Something that plays in New England's favor is that the Jets haven't stopped opposing rushers well. Rhamondre Stevenson has been a monster out of their backfield and should get ample opportunity to help pace this game. Don't expect much from any of their wideouts against Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed, though Hunter Henry may be in for an encore performance with CJ Mosley unlikely to suit up.
Aaron Rodgers appeared plenty happy to notch the first win he's finished* with the Jets, but he still hasn't looked truly elite. Tempered expectations for the 40-year-old, especially off an Achilles' tear, but he hasn't convinced me that this is a contending group just yet.
Rookie Braelon Allen exploded onto the scene last week and will be looking to have his workload continue to grow. Breece Hall's the bell cow and will be in line for plenty of work, but with Rodgers' inability to push the ball downfield, both should be involved in the run and pass game. New England's faced a weak group of running backs so far, making it hard to judge how they'll fare versus this duo.
Let's roll with the Patriots to cover the spread, but the Jets should eke out a close home win under the spotlights. The under plays too.
Fantasy Starts: Hunter Henry, Rhamondre Stevenson, Allen Lazard
Fantasy Sits: Mike Williams
Sleepers: Braelon Allen, Demario Douglas
New York Giants at Cleveland Browns (-6.5)
Kicking off Sunday with what looks to be a weird matchup-- probably the most complimentary we can be. Daniel Jones had the Giants offense looking acceptable in week two, but against Washington Commanders defense that's on the opposite end of the shit spectrum compared to these Browns. Humbling performance incoming from DJ.
Devin Singletary may be able to get going some on the ground though, as Cleveland has been susceptible to the run some early on. The free agent running back's been heavily featured in New York's game plans so far, producing to warrant continued usage. Malik Nabers versus Denzel Ward should provide some fun battles too; a real opportunity for himself to prove if he's quarterback-proof.
Much better showing from Deshaun Watson against the hapless Jaguars than Dallas. Jury remains out on him and his dead arm, but there's enough talent around to elevate the embattled QB. The G-Men have some guys on the defensive side of the ball, but it hasn't all clicked just yet. Not thinking this'll be the week for it. Look for Jerome Ford to rack up a ton of rushing yards against a front seven that just got gashed by Brian Robinson Jr.
Browns win at home with relative ease, cashing the under in the process.
Fantasy Starts: Jerome Ford, Devin Singletary
Fantasy Sits: Darius Slayton
Sleepers: Deshaun Watson
Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
Malik Willis revenge game! Who saw this storyline coming? While Jordan Love saw some limited work in practice on Thursday, it still feels a little too early for him to be back out there. The Green Bay faithful are surely encouraged by that recovery time though.
Assuming it is Willis under center again, look for another heavy dose of Josh Jacobs with a side of low risk passing plays. Matt LaFleur had the offense cooking, relatively, against the Colts and should be able to employ a similar approach down in Tennessee.
Can Will Levis prove to the Titans that the made the correct decision regarding their two young QBs? It's been a one step forward, two steps back kind of campaign thus far for Mr. Duddy, with some truly hilarious turnovers along the way. Could be an exploitable secondary.
To the surprise of many, Tony Pollard's really got a stranglehold on the backfield work in Nashville. Ty'Jae Spears finished 2023 on a high note but has yet to really establish himself this go round. Not thinking there'll be any changes in their snap counts in what should be a competitive game.
Feels like a golden opportunity for the Titans to get the 0 out of their win column, but Matt LaFleur is showing he's got the Packers trust. Take them to at least cover at +3.5 in a showdown you won't lose sleep over.
Fantasy Starts: Josh Jacobs, Calvin Ridley
Fantasy Sits: Any Packers receiver
Sleepers: Tyler Boyd
Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
Searching for fun storylines in this game... Caleb Williams hasn't been good or entertaining yet, while Anthony Richardson can at least hang his hat on the latter. Neither team's run game has gotten going, which doesn't seem in line to change here. D'Andre Swift has a plus matchup and feels due, but Chicago's offensive line would need to not suck for that to be a lock. Don't hold your breath.
Indy's going to be stifled through the air, while the Bears struggle to move the ball with any consistency. One of my favorite unders of the week, in a game Chicago's defense could win alone. If the Colts pull this off, it'll be some real hero type stuff from AR-15.
That being said, Bears win on the road.
Fantasy Starts: D'Andre Swift
Fantasy Sits: Rome Odunze, Michael Pittman Jr.
Sleepers: Khalil Herbert
Houston Texans (-2.5) at Minnesota Vikings
After going 0-2 railing against Minnesota to start off this season, there's some admitted skepticism approaching this game. On paper and in my heart, there's absolutely no way the Vikings hang with CJ Stroud and the Texans. Right?
Maybe. Justin Jefferson looks like he should be good to go, which is a critical boost for the offense. Sam Darnold's playing as well as he ever has in his career, but clearly benefits from having the league's highest paid wideout on the field. Running back Aaron Jones' resurgence has been a big part of their success as well.
But Houston's loaded. The defense is young, scrappy and only going to look better as they gel as a unit. Stroud's going to put up some points versus a Minnesota unit that's punched a little above their weight, even if Joe Mixon is forced to sit. As good as the former Bengal has been, Cam Akers should be able to have some success filling in behind this line. Nico Collins should have no limitations, while Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell are due for a pop.
It has to be the Texans, covering too. After watching New England go down without a fight Thursday night, it feels like many reality checks are on the way for some overachieving squads.
Fantasy Starts: Cam Akers, CJ Stroud
Fantasy Sits: Minnesota defense
Sleepers: Dare Ogunbowale, Houston defense
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-2.5)
The hottest team in the NFL squaring off with an Eagles team that's lost 7 of their last 9, dating back to last season. Will the trends continue down in NOLA?
Derek Carr has been a revelation, putting Klint Kubiak into the early discussion for next offseason's crop of potential head coaches. Philly's secondary shouldn't pose a ton of hurdles for Carr, Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave. Alvin Kamara should have success against a group that didn't contain Bijan Robinson supremely well.
What type of answer will Jalen Hurts be able to provide? He led a clunky unit for much of the game against Atlanta that left a ton of points on the field. AJ Brown's absence was visible, despite Devonta Smith stepping up. Dennis Allen's trademark defense has been flying all over the place early on and should be able to coax a turnover or two.
Feels like an under game in what could amount to be a dog fight. We're going to learn a ton about each of these teams today, but let's take the Saints at home in a squeaker.
Fantasy Starts: Alvin Kamara, Devonta Smith, Rashid Shaheed
Fantasy Sits: Dallas Goedert
Sleepers: Taysom Hill
Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
Justin Herbert and these feet injuries man, consistently plaguing the fifth year quarterback in 2024. He's a game-time decision, but expected to play-- a crucial element to monitor for this game.
If LA's starter does suit up, expect big loads for JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards versus a front seven that's been stingy. Time to see what this young, promising offensive line's got. And if it's Easton Stick under center, it'll be much of the same but with absolutely no semblance of a passing attack. Mike Tomlin will take Stick's lunch money for 60 minutes.
Pittsburgh's only managed one touchdown on the season, playing two middle-of-the-pack defenses at that. The Chargers fall snugly into that category and will likely be able to contain Justin Fields' attack for much of the game. Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa can't lose contain though, it does feel like Fields is due for a big run. Najee Harris should get plenty of work too.
Something about a 34.5 point total makes you just want to hammer the over. No way two NFL offenses can be this bad, right? We'll find out, but let's hit that over and roll with the Chargers! Pittsburgh won last week as favorites, something they don't do often, let alone consecutively.
Fantasy Starts: JK Dobbins, George Pickens
Fantasy Sits: Any Chargers receiver
Sleepers: Any Chargers receiver, Van Jefferson
Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)
Blowout of the week here. Admittedly, I've really missed the mark on those so far this season, but we're getting back on track in Tampa. Baker's cooking, Chris Godwin is in God-mode, the defensive line is stout and the secondary can't be getting less healthy. Outside of Patrick Surtain II, these Broncos defenders don't have much teeth.
Nor does Denver's offense at the moment. Bo Nix has been competitive, but not really elevating the team to winning levels. The lack of passing threat has guys keying in on Javonte Williams in the box, making running room a premium for their backs. Courtland Sutton isn't a true WR1 either, we can safely say.
No way the Broncos keep this within double digits. Bucs go marching to 3-0.
Fantasy Starts: Chris Godwin, Rachaad White
Fantasy Sits: Courtland Sutton, Javonte Williams
Sleepers: Bucky Irving, Jalen McMillan
Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5)
Andy Dalton vs. Gardner Minshew, the matchup we were all clamoring for last month. The bittersweet thing for Carolina is that they can't really play much worse than they have. If last week wasn't rock bottom, I shutter to think what it looks like.
But for as much crap as Dalton gets, he is a stabilizing presence under center, at least relative to Bryce Young. With decent weapons in Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen, it's possible he could have this group somewhat resembling a professional attack. That Panthers' offensive line is going to get worked by Maxx Crosby though.
Are the Raiders riding a little too high off that Ravens upset? The fourth quarter was remarkable, but they didn't move the ball well prior to that. Carolina's defense isn't good, so it'll be telling if Brock Bowers and/or Davante Adams don't get going. Zamir White should be able to break out against a bad run stopping group, but he's looked really pedestrian so it's hard to put any eggs into that basket confidently.
The Panthers get paid to play football too. They're bad, really bad, but this Andy Dalton spark is worth something. Let's go with the road upset! And much more confidently, play the over also.
Fantasy Starts: Brock Bowers
Fantasy Sits: Zamir White
Sleepers: Alexander Mattison, Adam Thielen
Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5)
Like the Tampa-Denver game, this is another one that feels like a lamb to the slaughter. There's enough Skylar Thompson on tape to know what he is at this point: bad. Going into Seattle too, to face the undefeated Seahawks in front of the 12th man? No chance man.
The Dolphins have a really good defense, so don't expect Geno Smith and company to run away with things, but they're going to be given some short fields to capitalize on against Thompson. DK Metcalf will likely get a heavy dose of Jalen Ramsey, which should provide some entertainment for the afternoon. No Kenneth Walker once again, opening the door for another inefficient showing from Zach Charbonnet.
Seattle in a lazy win, the Dolphins just don't have enough at QB to keep up. Leaning toward the under but there's plenty of explosive players in this game that could change that.
Fantasy Starts: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Fantasy Sits: Jaylen Waddle
Sleepers: Seahawks defense
Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) at Dallas Cowboys
John Harbaugh's quite possibly coaching for his job here. Selling himself to the team while sitting 0-3 would be hard to envision. Urgency, and ideally preparation, will be at an all time high.
Lamar Jackson's been routinely flushed out of the pocket, running for his life behind two terrible guards. Micah Parsons is going to be a problem all afternoon, something Todd Monken will need to find a way to counter. Zay Flowers should be productive, but they need to get him going downfield some. He was less than a yard downfield per route on average for much of last week's loss to Las Vegas.
Baltimore's league-worst secondary will be tasked with containing CeeDee Lamb. The group doesn't feel quite as bad as the number, so maybe this'll be a return to the mean type of game for them. Look for Jalen Tolbert or Brandin Cooks to expose a broken coverage at some point. Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott will be non-factors.
It's a must win for the Ravens, which is exactly what they'll go do. Historically, they've smashed the Cowboys, repping a 5-1 all time record in the rivalry. Not expecting a blowout, but they should make it 6-1 tonight.
Fantasy Starts: Lamar Jackson
Fantasy Sits: Ezekiel Elliott
Sleepers: Rashod Bateman, Jalen Tolbert
San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) at Los Angeles Rams
That San Francisco injury report just keeps growing and growing...the Rams can relate, but it's a list that's exponentially expanding.
The good thing for the Niners is that LA just got smashed by the Cardinals, looking helpless in the process. No reason Kyle Shanahan couldn't emulate that same plan, even with his reduction in talent. Jordan Mason and Brandon Aiyuk should both be very busy.
Matthew Stafford's got pride though and won't go down without a fight. However, his supporting cast drops off much more dramatically due to injuries. He'll be going to battle with Demarcus Robinson, Tutu Atwell and Tyler Johnson as his top targets-- a pessimistic bunch even with Charvarius Ward set to sit. Like Mason, plenty of touches for Kyren Williams.
If ever there was a time for the Rams to steal a divisional game from the Niners, this would be it. Can't fully get on board with that yet, but 7.5 points is a lot for a San Fran team missing so many key starters.
Fantasy Starts: Jordan Mason
Fantasy Sits: Matthew Stafford
Sleepers: Logan Thomas, Tutu Atwell
Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Anticipating fireworks from this matchup. The Cardinals offense looks like it's put things together, while Detroit's has been potent but stalling. Feels like a powder keg waiting to explode in the desert.
Amon Ra St. Brown will be suiting up for the Lions, fresh off a 119-yard performance against the Bucs. He should be able to replicate that against a similarly weak Arizona secondary. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery will be busy on the ground, but tough matchup for Sam LaPorta. The Cards have been surprisingly stout against tight ends.
Kyler Murray's been really sharp to begin 2024, especially now that he's targeting Marvin Harrison Jr. The rookie should be able to find space routinely against Detroit's corners. But James Conner may not be so fortunate against the third ranked rushing defense in the league.
The Lions are 0-2 on the over this year, so they're due for one. The Cardinals can put up points and have a hard time stopping opponents from doing so. Take that over and the Cardinals to pull a mild upset at home.
Fantasy Starts: Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr., Jahmyr Gibbs, Jared Goff
Fantasy Sits: Sam LaPorta (I know you're not going to)
Sleepers: Michael Wilson
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Atlanta Falcons
The reigning champs go to Atlanta for a fun Sunday night tussle. Patrick Mahomes has looked like his usual self early on, outside of not finding Travis Kelce with any regularity. Wonder how long until they get on the same page? Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice are a fine 1-2 on the outside who'll put the Falcons corners to the test.
Big storyline to follow is the snap split between Carson Steele and Semaje Perine. The two are looking to fill the choppy shoes of Isiah Pacheco, whose set to miss at least the next six weeks with a broken fibula. It's a tough loss for this offense.
Kirk Cousins, fresh off a nice win in Philadelphia, seems to be exorcising his prime time demons. He's got a ton of talent around him and is probably just at the tip of the iceberg on what he can do with it. Once Cousins is moving more comfortably on that Achilles, this could be a top unit.
Bijan Robinson's a big part of that and will be again here against a Chiefs run defense that hasn't been great. Expect to see Tyler Allgeier plenty too in relief.
Initially was leaning toward a Kansas City win here, but something's screaming Falcons. In Atlanta, first game for KC without Pacheco-- just a couple different factors in play. Go under too.
Fantasy Starts: Bijan Robinson, Rashee Rice
Fantasy Sits: Travis Kelce
Sleepers: Justin Watson, Darnell Mooney
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-5.5) (Monday 9/23)
The Jaguars are tremendously disappointing. Trevor Lawrence looks lost, meanwhile Christian Kirk's nowhere to be found. The offensive line is bad, the defense has slightly overachieved. It's ugly for Doug Pederson right now and relief doesn't seem to be in sight.
Buffalo is rolling offensively and without needing to overly rely on Josh Allen. He should have plenty of room to operate in the passing game Monday night against a weak Jags' secondary. James Cook should get plenty of volume, but we should see some chunk gains from the Bills' pass catchers.
Jacksonville probably isn't that bad overall but vibes aren't good right now. Buffalo is on the opposite end of that spectrum and should be fired up for a prime time game in Orchard Park. Bills money line is a damn near lock.
Fantasy Starts: Khalil Shakir, Josh Allen
Fantasy Sits: Christian Kirk
Sleepers: Keon Coleman
Washington Commanders at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) (Monday 9/23)
If not now, when Joe Burrow? This Commanders secondary is one of the worst the league has to offer, plus he gets Tee Higgins back. Smash spot for Mr. Shiesty.
Jayden Daniels is fun, versatile and likely to keep the Commanders in this throughout the onslaught Burrow lays. Brian Robinson Jr. will be heavily featured as they try to establish the run again and control the clock. The Bengals defense isn't an intimidating one and should provide some room for Washington to exploit. Can they capitalize?
Cincinnati must win this game but it won't be a layup. The over should safely play, and thinking a last minute cover by the home team.
Fantasy Starts: Brian Robinson Jr., Joe Burrow
Fantasy Sits: Chase Brown
Sleepers: Andrei Iosivas
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@Choppinglines
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