As a Ravens fan, Thursday was tough. The unedited prediction is still left, as is the Packers-Eagles one, just to show accountability. Don't expect perfection here, but always expect effort!
And passion...because we've been waiting a long time for this. A full Sunday of football at hand, just a few hours away. Here's some tidbits to help sway any bets you're on the fence with. Given our 0-2 start...here's your shaker of salt too.
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| Photo: Adam Hunger/ AP |
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) (Thursday 9/5)
First game of the year and it's a doozy! An AFC Championship rematch, except this game's going down in Arrowhead. Lamar Jackson's slimmed up some over the offseason, hopefully priming him for a big follow-up to his second MVP campaign. Look for big numbers from top wideout Zay Flowers, in this game and beyond. Trent McDuffie shadowing Flowers will be KC's best path to slowing him.
The highly anticipated, long-dreamt Derrick Henry debut in a Lamar-led offense should be a lot of fun to watch. Chris Jones is going to give Baltimore's guards some trouble, which could limit the King's production, but it's going to be a trip seeing him in the purple and black.
Then there's Patrick Mahomes. Dude's different, straight up. A mix of Brady and Manning: all the skills, throws and vision of Peyton with the balls and clutch gene of Tom. His poor receiving core limited him some in '23, but new additions Xavier Worthy, Marquise Brown and Juju Smith-Schuster provide plenty of new toys to work with. Injuries and inexperience will limit them this week though, especially against a fierce Ravens secondary.
Expect a steady dose of Isiah Pacheco Thursday too, as the second year running back further entrenches himself as the RB1 for this team. If he can get going, it'll make things way easier for Mahomes.
Ravens in a tight one.
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) (Friday 9/6)
Remind me again why this game's going on in Brazil? Between the green uniform colors, forest fires, high crime rates and the pretty plain resentment from players, none of it really makes sense. But hey, the NFL does what they want to, so here we are.
Which Eagles are we going to see Friday night, the dominant team from the first half of 2023 or the dysfunctional dumpster fire that was their final stretch? A slow start could easily have Nick Sirianni ousted. Jalen Hurts should be able to produce some yards against this defense, but they've got to avoid the clunky lulls. Excited to finally see Saquon in action too, see if he can actually live up to the hype.
Speaking of which, Jordan Love certainly set a high bar for himself after a masterful second half where he threw 18 touchdowns to just 1 pick. The Packers "upgraded" from Aaron Jones to Josh Jacobs in the backfield, but largely are set to run it back with Love's same set of weapons. Should definitely be some continuity on display as his rapport grows with Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs and so on.
Very interesting matchup, with some unique distractions compared to any game these teams would play in America. Jordan Love and Co. are set to look sharp, while Philly realizes they've still got to iron out a few things with their talented roster. Green Bay leaves the first Brazilian battle with the dub.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
Death, Taxes and Kirk Cousins over mediocre teams during the one o'clock block. Book it.
Pittsburgh's defense is solid, especially their pass rush, but Atlanta has a strong group on the O-line that should be up for the challenge. Their skill players should be able to pop, Bijan in particular.
Russell Wilson found his way into the headlines with a recent calf strain-- an unwanted development for a guy who's been pretty bad at 100%. Wonder if we'll see any split duty with Justin Fields in this one? Perfect opportunity for a revamped Steelers' offensive line to show what they're made of against an unintimidating Falcons front seven. Believe it or not, Najee Harris could potentially look efficient.
Atlanta at home though, don't overthink this one, even with Mike Tomlin working the opposite sideline.
Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills (-6.5)
When Matt Milano went down for the Bills last year, their defense was immediately handicapped for the remainder of the season. The linebacker tore his biceps a few weeks ago, putting him on the shelf until at least the final quarter of the season. Not good for a group in the midst of a ton of roster turnover.
But they've got Josh Allen, so they'll always have a chance. A whole new set of receivers will raise some interesting challenges though, definitely anticipating some miscommunications early on between #17 and Keon Coleman/Curtis Samuel. Dalton Kincaid is my favorite Bills' pass catcher this week, by a long shot. James Cook should have 20+ touches too.
Big season ahead for Kyler Murray. After rumors swirled that he'd be moved at the trade deadline, he returned from his ACL injury to help Arizona at least compete week to week. Tight end Trey McBride was his go-to guy, quite possibly my favorite prop play for week one. Marvin Harrison Jr.'s going to be a hell of a piece though. Not thinking Buffalo will have much to slow him down.
Upset of the week here! McBride eats over the middle, Kyler's productive with his legs and the Cardinals upset Buffalo on the road in a high scoring affair.
Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (-3.5)
Showtime! Not sure any team out there infused more talent into their roster this offseason than the Bears, adding Caleb Williams at 1:1 and Rome Odunze with the ninth pick. Keenan Allen and D'Andre Swift also came aboard, giving Williams virtually no excuse not to play at least decently in his first professional go round. If the preseason's any indication, buckle up for an exciting 18 weeks.
On the flip side, Will Levis will be on audition for Tennessee to prove he's the guy under center moving forward. Really tough task ahead with this Chicago defense, which was one of the best in the league in 2023. Calvin Ridley coming into the mix at wide receiver definitely helps, making for a fine tandem opposite of Deandre Hopkins. Running room will be at a premium though, with neither Ty'Jae Spears nor Tony Pollard being known as bruisers.
The Titans have some talent scattered throughout their roster, so +3.5 is an interesting play, but the Bears take the first home game of the Caleb Williams era.
New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5)
Ja'Marr Chase seems like he's set to suit up for Cincy, a critical development with Tee Higgins set to sit out. Joe Burrow's a great quarterback, when healthy, but the man's got to have somebody to throw to. Chase Brown and Zack Moss are set to split carries against a front seven that they should be able to have success against. My money's on Brown getting the hot hand out of the two.
Those hoping to see Drake Maye starting will have to wait at least one more week, with Jacoby Brissett preparing to be under center for New England. It's a settling veteran presence to operate an offense that doesn't fully lack talent. Hard to pinpoint which receiver he'll target, though many would say Demario Douglas is the guy early on here. A situation to avoid.
Rhamondre Stevenson should get a good bit of volume with Antonio Gibson at less than 100%. Probably his best pass catching forecast of the short term. Trey Hendrickson should be good for a sack against a banged up offensive line.
Bengals win in a slightly closer one than expected, with Brissett and the Pats managing to slow the game down some on both sides of the ball.
Houston Texans (-2.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Highly anticipated divisional matchup here, featuring two talented young QBs. CJ Stroud should have ample opportunity to connect with his stable of receivers against a shaky Colts secondary. Joe Mixon should help diversify the attack, but for this game at least, it'll take a back seat early on as Stroud cooks.
Anthony Richardson's got some guys to work with too, but the Texans defense offers some more challenges to unlock. He's going to try and make some plays with his legs, which Houston will need to minimize. Derek Stingley Jr. vs. Michael Pittman Jr. is going to provide some must watch television. MPJ needs to win more of those battles than not, especially with Josh Downs set to sit out.
Stroud and the boys should be able to put up some points in this one, and while Indy's offense is more than capable, they're facing a stiff test in this Texans defense. Texans win, cover and under.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)
Most firework potential of any week one matchup here. The Jaguars corners aren't great, which doesn't spell optimism against Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Expecting both have big days and find the end zone, as Tua cooks an inferior secondary.
The load split between Raheem Mostert and Devon Achane will be a storyline to follow all season. Jacksonville was pretty good against the run in 2023, so not expecting consistent success on the ground from either here. Both are more than capable of busting a long one though.
Trevor Lawrence is pretty disappointing, quite frankly. Collapses, lulls in performance, a terrible throw for every great one he manages. A little too up and down given the hype that surrounded him out of Clemson. But he's still young and has some intangibles, so maybe this'll be the year? Behind Jalen Ramsey, Miami's thin at corner, so this should provide him a decent chance to start off on a good foot.
Hammer the over, my favorite one of the week here. Sprinkle in receivers with any time TD bets and take Miami money line at least. They should be a little too relentless offensively for Jacksonville to cover.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-4.5)
From a projected barn burner, to this. Even in a world where you hype yourself up for the Bryce Young comeback szn and the Chris Olave/Alvin Kamara duo, it's hard to envision how this game truly turns out 'fun'. Been wrong before though.
Derek Carr is boring and average, he'll be checking down every time he can't find his WR1 or Rashid Shaheed deep. Young should have a little more time in the pocket then his rookie campaign, which won't hurt his performance. Diontae Johnson is a superior top option to Adam Thielen too, so some improvement there. But this still isn't a Panthers offense to be afraid of.
Easiest under of the week. Saints should win but Carolina is good enough to keep it within 4.5.
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at New York Giants
Genuinely unsure of how the Giants are home dogs. Maybe some of that Daniel Jones Kool-Aid I was sipping this time last year hasn't worn off yet, but New York's gotten better in every area except running back. Malik Nabers seems like a guy that could catch 4-5 passes a game with me under center-- DJ can't be that washed, right?
The Vikings are in a precarious spot too. Sam Darnold's their QB1, with JJ McCarthy hitting the IR after just one, promising preseason game. Folks in the Meadowlands know what Darnold brings to the table, although this opportunity in Minnesota may be as good as he could ask for. Justin Jefferson will elevate his game, but the lack of running game and poor offensive line are going to be obstacles.
Seems like a trap, so proceed with caution, but this feels like a Giants win with relative ease. They're defensive line should give Darnold a ton of trouble, while Jones is able to do just enough against a pretty bad Vikes D. Expecting a few weird plays.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5)
Jim Harbaugh is back in the league, just a couple hundred miles south from his old team. His coaching prowess makes the Chargers a very interesting team all season, but how's it going to look this week? The receivers are bad and/or raw. Justin Herbert can't be 100%, regardless of reports. The secondary isn't great. Question marks galore.
They have potential to be elite in the trenches though, which will be a difference maker in many of their games. Gardner Minshew's going to have his hands full against this pass rush, while LA's running backs should have some room to work. Could definitely be a grinding game.
Minshew shines his brightest early in seasons, before the tape gets out on how he plays with his new teams. Davante Adams will get his targets, but look for Jakobi Meyers to have a nice game against whoever the Chargers put on him. Expecting Brock Bowers to have an emphasized role in the game plan too.
The dogs are barking! Raiders steal a divisional one on the road, thanks to the heroics of Gardner Minshew-- sending a fuming Harbaugh back into the locker room at SoFi Field.
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5)
The 12th man is going to provide a warm welcome to Bo Nix, that's for sure. The dynamic rookie will benefit from a reworked offensive line, but this is a difficult first draw. Javonte Williams should get a full workload in the run and pass game as Sean Payton tries to ease the kid into NFL action. Courtland Sutton should get open a few times versus Riq Woolen on the outside.
Geno Smith is an ever glaring question mark. He's been outstanding at points over his tenure in Seattle, but really faded over the second half of last season. They also made additions to their O line, intended at preventing such a slide. Kenneth Walker's going to eat against what should be a terrible run defense, fire him up with confidence as an anytime TD.
Not a game I'm in love with, just too many variables with Nix and Geno. Given the offensive talent that'll be out there, we'll roll with the over and Seahawks cover.
Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
Big D in the Dawg Pound and it should be gritty. The Browns defense should be top tier, squaring off against an offense that lacks top tier talent, outside of CeeDee Lamb. Cleveland's front seven is going to be disrespectful to the run game, while their corners neutralize Brandin Cooks and Jalen Tolbert. Lamb is a different devil though.
The Cowboys once-touted offensive line is a shadow of it's former self, which could pose issues for Dak in the pocket. If he's getting forced out all afternoon, it could be a long one.
Deshaun Watson doesn't inspire much more confidence. Rest assured, his forearm soreness and subsequent ban on massages is far from a coincidence. Will he hold back their strong group of receivers? That's what we're feeling this week, even against a weakened Cowboys secondary.
Jerome Ford could be an X factor. The backup running back had some really strong showings in Nick Chubb's absent last season and will have at least four weeks to show he's worthy of an extended role. Cleveland's got a nice offensive line, though they'll definitely feel the loss of Jedrick Wills Jr.
Feels like a Cowboys win, in an ugly, close one. Cleveland has enough defense to stay in almost any game, but Deshaun's going to be rusty.
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5)
Awesome showdown here between the 2017 and 2023 Heisman Award winners. Jayden Daniels has Commanders fans believing for the first time since RG3, and rightfully so with his combination of arm talent and athleticism. Tampa's going to be without Kalijah Cancey, which'll open up space for Brian Robinson up the middle. The balanced attack will help Daniels get going in the pass and run game, in what should be a brilliant debut.
Baker and the Bucs have more than enough to hang offensively. Mike Evans is timeless and Chris Godwin is a hell of a Robin. Third rounder Jalen McMillen adds a dynamic deep threat, while Bucky White is the lightning to Rachaad White's thunder. It's a diverse attack down in Tampa that'll be fun to follow. Look for big time passing yards against this horrible secondary.
A lock of an over here, as both teams should put up points. Let's go Commanders with a road upset.
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-4.5)
Sunday night in Detroit with Matthew Stafford. After limping through training camp with a hamstring injury, questions about the 36-year-old QB's longevity are fair. If he's anywhere near 100% though, he's got the weapons to attack with.
Puka Nacua and a healthy Cooper Kupp will split out opposite of one another, with an interesting wildcard in Colby Parkinson now at tight end. The Lions corners aren't as bad as they have been in past years, but it's still a tall assignment. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum won't have much wiggle room against the second best run stopping unit from 2023.
It'll be much harder for the Rams to slow the Jahmyr Gibbs/David Montgomery duo. Both should have big evenings, helping set up Ben Johnson scheme up some play action shots. Jared Goff will hit them too. Some big numbers incoming from Amon Ra.
While not impossible for LA to cover, there's no way they're going to take this Sunday night battle against a fired up Lions team in Detroit. Dan Campbell's going to have them ready to play in what should be a slug fest. 52.5 seems a touch high as far as points go. Peep that under.
New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) (Monday 9/9)
Aaron Rodgers returning to his home state in the final game of week one. All eyes will be on his Achilles as San Francisco sends a barrage of lineman after him early and often. Look for Garrett Wilson to be busy on hot routes, as well as Breece Hall and the tight ends on dump offs.
That'll be majority of Hall's action against a stingy San Fran run D. The kid's good to break out a big one here and there, but it'll be tough sledding much of the evening.
Brock Purdy isn't going to have it much easier against a stout Jets defense. Sauce Gardner's the name you know, but Quinnen Williams, DJ Reed, Javon Kinlaw and CJ Mosley are far from slouches. Kyle Shanahan's going to need his A-game to overcome what these guys are capable of throwing at him.
Which he's fully capable of doing. Christian McCaffery should be able to get going on the ground against a group that's surprisingly vulnerable against the rush. If Shanahan can get into his play action bag, that could spell trouble, even against this strong New York secondary. We're going to get to see some really high level football Monday night.
But the Niners take it at home! The team's a little more experienced in moments like these overall and have what it takes to pull out a close one at home in primetime. Take the Jets to cover 4.5 though.
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, just our opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
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