It's been a strange start to this NFL season, that's for sure! We're expecting some of these favorites to lock in and figure things out sooner than later here, but you never know in this league. Week four's got a nice slate in place, starting with...
Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) at New York Giants (Thursday 9/26)
This Thursday nighter has to be better than last week's, right? Dallas is shipping up to East Rutherford for a showdown of two 1-2 NFC East rivals. Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb each have gotten their big pay days but the results haven't shown on the field just yet. Big opportunity for the duo with the G-Men missing their top two corners.
Dallas' defense has been shaky though, at best. Thinking Devin Singletary should have no problem getting going on the ground, helping open up a more diverse attack from the offense. Malik Nabers should roast this weak secondary too-- kid's special.
Thinking this should be a relatively high scoring game, making the total points of 44.5 appealing. Taking the Giants outright doesn't feel too bold, but you can lock them in as +5.5 home dogs against this weak D.
Fantasy Starts: CeeDee Lamb, Malik Nabers, Devin Singletary
Fantasy Sits: Rico Dowdle
Sleepers: Daniel Jones, Jalen Tolbert
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
Big game for the balance of the NFC South. Will the Saints steal a tiebreaker and head to 3-1 or will Atlanta muddy things up by bringing both teams to .500?
Kirk Cousins and the boys took it to the wire against KC, but Bijan Robinson was stuffed on a 4th and 1 to seal their losing fate. New Orleans' defense doesn't have a Chris Jones-type in the middle anywhere, so Robinson should have more success-- assuming his shoulder injury is moderate enough to play through. Huge storyline to follow there.
Possibly a Kyle Pitts game here? The ever-disappointing TE1 has never had more than 3 catches against their rival, but the Saints have been generous to the position so far this season. Wouldn't bet the house on it, but with some tougher competition on the perimeter, Kirk may peek to the middle more.
Alvin Kamara's going to pop. Short list of front sevens allowing more rushing yards than Atlanta and Klint Kubiak has his running back rejuvenated. He's also a little banged up, so keep an eye on that, but should be good to gash the Dirty Birds. Expecting a conservative effort from Derek Carr in the passing game.
Should be a mildly entertaining back and forth, with a few weird plays to revisit Monday morning. Atlanta gets it done at home, as the Saints come slowly marching back to Earth from their hot start.
Fantasy Starts: Alvin Kamara, Kyle Pitts
Fantasy Sits: Derek Carr
Sleepers: Tyler Allgeier
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears (-3.5)
Vintage Sean McVay on display last Sunday, pulling out all the stops in the Rams impressive comeback win over a banged up Niners team. The Bears offense should pose much less issue, barring this being the week Caleb Williams puts it all together.
Chicago's rookie QB has had some brilliant flashes this season, which have unfortunately been dulled by too many little (and big) mistakes in between. It's a progression that's been as encouraging as it has been frustrating, especially with Jayden Daniels cooking in DC. LA gives up passing yards pretty freely while failing to boast a threatening pass rush. Perhaps this could be a decent showing by the terrible Bears' O-line? D'Andre Swift just wasting away at 1.4 yards a clip.
Hard to sleep on Stafford. It's not always consistently pretty, but the man's been getting it done for a long time, regardless of the talent around him. Tutu Atwell was a critical component to last week's upset but will have much tougher sledding against this Bears' secondary. Kyren Williams helping control the flow of the game on the ground will be essential too-- the Rams don't have the pass catchers right now to go one dimensional.
If nothing else, give me McVay over Eberflus here. So many variables in this game, let's fall back on whose the better coach. And that competition isn't close.
Fantasy Starts: Kyren Williams, DJ Moore
Fantasy Sits: D'Andre Swift
Sleepers: Tutu Atwell, Roschon Johnson
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)
Jordan Love should be back for this divisional showdown, but the fact that a Sam Darnold-Malik Willis matchup would've been borderline must-see TV...who saw that coming a few months ago?!
The Packers have been efficient offensively but are set to clash with one of the more stout defenses in the league. Brian Flores has this unit playing out of their minds, individually and collectively. This chess match versus Matt LaFleur should be a doozy.
On the flip side of the ball, Sam Darnold's in uncharted territory-- from a complete cast off to an MVP candidate, really vibing with his WR1 Justin Jefferson. Green Bay can be passed on, which'll give Darnold another chance to show he's arrived. Expect Kevin O'Connell to have a game plan that sets him up for success.
 |
| Photo: Brad Rempel/ Imagn Images |
Revenge game for Aaron Jones here too! After being cast out of town for Josh Jacobs, the longtime Packers running back will make his first return to Lambeau. He's been in prime form since moving over to Minnesota and should receive a nice bit of volume against his former team.
After riding against the Vikes the last three weeks, we'll reverse course this week and pick them to stay undefeated-- undoubtedly assuring their downfall. Thinking we see an under too.
Fantasy Starts: Aaron Jones, Josh Jacobs
Fantasy Sits: Romeo Doubs, Jordan Love
Sleepers: Jalen Nailor
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at Indianapolis Colts
While the Steelers haven't fully made me believe yet, it's hard to deny what they're doing. Mike Tomlin is going to throw some things at Anthony Richardson that he absolutely won't be prepared for. If you thought the Packers and Bears made him look bad, this is going to be ugly.
Expect Justin Fields to continue plugging away in his comeback campaign. The exiled Bear has really clicked in Pittsburgh and should be set up to crush an inferior Colts defense. Najee Harris should be able to grind away yards on the ground with minimal issue.
Much like that Chicago-LA game, this is a pure coaching mismatch. No shade at Shane Steichen either, but there's no way he gets AR-15 to overcome what Tomlin's got in store for him. Steelers with ease and the under.
Fantasy Starts: Najee Harris, Justin Fields
Fantasy Sits: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr.
Sleepers: Calvin Austin, Jaylen Warren
Denver Broncos at New York Jets (-7.5)
That was fun seeing Bo Nix ball out last week down in Tampa, nice storyline for the rookie QB. Won't be the same this Sunday.
New York's corners are much, much better than the Bucs and are going to cause Nix a bunch of headaches. He'll likely extend a few plays with his legs, but it's not going to be a task he's up for.
Javonte Williams seems to be ceding more and more ground to Jaleel McLaughlin, and now Tyler Badie, with each passing game. Good matchup for them on paper, but the boxes will be stacked much of the afternoon. We'll see who steps up.
Aaron Rodgers will have to navigate around Patrick Surtain II, but not something he hasn't done before. Caps Garrett Wilson's ceiling some. Breece Hall and Braelon Allen will each be heavily featured in the run and pass game, continuing their ascension as the premier running back tandem.
Coaching's been the theme of the year, and Sean Payton's much more trustworthy than Robert Saleh, but the roster deficiencies are going to be too much to overcome. Jets going away, covering as well.
Fantasy Starts: Breece Hall, Braelon Allen
Fantasy Sits: Courtland Sutton
Sleepers: Allen Lazard, Tyler Badie
Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
A wildcard round rematch from earlier this calendar year, one in which the Bucs smoked Philly to put them out of their misery. Will the results be the same this go round?
The Eagles will be rolling in without their top two wideouts, adding some obstacles for Jalen Hurts to overcome. He's been turnover prone with Brown and Smith playing, so tentative on what he's going to put onto film. Let's see what you've got Jahan Dotson! Saquon all day too, all the touches.
Baker's a gamer though and Philadelphia's defense is up and down. Jalen Carter finally showed up last week, a trend which wouldn't be fun for the Bucs' offensive line to deal with. Bucky Irving's coming for that RB1 spot, starting his encroachment into Rachaad White's workload and looking explosive in the process. Fun addition to this offense. Chris Godwin should slay from the slot, less confidence in Mike Evans.
Hard to ignore the home dogs, especially with Philly missing AJ and Devonta. They'll be heavily focused on ball control with Barkley and hoping their defense can play up to their potential. Under feels super safe at 46.5 and give me Tampa!
Fantasy Starts: Saquon Barkley, Jahan Dotson, Chris Godwin
Fantasy Sits: Jalen Hurts
Sleepers: Bucky Irving
Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) at Carolina Panthers
Insane how moving from Bryce Young to Andy Dalton of all people would produce the night-and-day turnaround we saw on display from the Panthers in Las Vegas. They went from the worst scoring team in the league to a juggernaut on the arm of the Red Rocket. Does he have an encore?
His 2-1 career record against the team that drafted him suggests so. Another full week of practice as the QB1 should only help his rapport with Diontae Johnson, who'll need to step up in Adam Thielen's absence. Johnson knows this Cincy secondary and should be able to produce respectable numbers.
Carolina will struggle to contain Joe Burrow and company all afternoon. Ja'Marr Chase torched the Commanders, Andrei Iosivas continuted to contribute and Tee Higgins is another week closer to 100%. Big passing day for Burrow. Chase Brown and Zack Moss have each been increasingly productive as the season's gone along and are in a smash spot against a bad Panthers run D. And if the game gets out of hand, lots of carries to be had.
Which shouldn't happen! The Bengals defense isn't stopping anybody right now and Andy Dalton would love the chance to really establish himself as Carolina's starter against his former squad. Take that cover all day and the over...we'll see if we're so bold as to pick another Panthers upset.
Fantasy Starts: Diontae Johnson, Zack Moss, Ja'Marr Chase
Fantasy Sits: Chuba Hubbard
Sleepers: Jonathan Mingo
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-6.5)
The Jaguars are 2-8 against the Texans over their last 10 showdowns. No matter how strong some of those Jags teams had, or how bad certain Davis Mills-led offenses were, Houston would always manage to win. After getting throttled last week in Minnesota, that's exactly what should happen Sunday.
CJ Stroud will torch an inferior secondary, helping create space for Cam Akers to put up some yards on the ground. No reason Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell can't all put up respectable numbers. Just a nightmare matchup.
Sad state of affairs in Duval. So much hope entering last season, starting 8-3 and then a spiraling 1-8 since. Cue Free Fallin', though that may not do it justice here. Trevor Lawrence went from paid to bust territory, Travis Etienne Jr. isn't effective and Doug Pederson can't rally the troops. Cannot bet on them anytime soon.
And we won't. Houston trounces them, possibly covering the over on their own while healing some of the saltiness from that spanking the Vikings laid on them. Dougie might be out of work if this comes to fruition.
Fantasy Starts: CJ Stroud, Cam Akers, Nico Collins
Fantasy Sits: Brent Strange, Trevor Lawrence
Sleepers: Tank Bigsby
Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals (-3.5)
What a fun way to kick off the four o'clock block. Kyler Murray and the Cards hosting the early favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Hoping for fireworks.
It's nearly statistically impossible for Jayden Daniels to surpass his stat line from last Monday, but this is a secondary that could facilitate a really good go at it, especially if that connection with Terry McLaurin stays strong. The two finally got on the same page and it was a beautiful thing, sparking the imagination of many a Commander fan. Brian Robinson will pace the game on the ground too, probably finding pay dirt.
Arizona's a game opponent though, due for a bounce back after being surprisingly suppressed by Detroit's D. Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. should eat Washington's cornerbacks, though the loss of Trey McBride will be felt. James Conner should be due for a better performance than what he put on against the Lions.
A lot of these higher point totals haven't panned out for the over this season, so there's hesitation here, but this one feels like one that does. Washington can't stop anybody and Jayden Daniels is going to put up some points.
Feels safe, as does a Commanders road upset! They're playing well and building some momentum, why not keep it going?
Fantasy Starts: Jayden Daniels, Marvin Harrison Jr., Kyler Murray
Fantasy Sits: Zach Ertz
Sleepers: Elijah Higgins
New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5)
The 49ers can't feel good about letting the beaten up Rams comeback on them last week. Going home now to face Jacoby Brissett and/or Drake Maye has to be a get right spot for the surprising 1-2 team.
Brock Purdy's looked pretty good overall, despite the bumpy start. Losing Deebo and Christian McCaffery will hurt anyone, but he's played through it steadily. San Francisco will likely need him to be good again versus a New England front seven that's been really strong against the run. Brandon Aiyuk is definitely due for a big day.
Even with the Niners' defense at well less than 100%, there's no way they let the Patriots rough them up in Santa Clara. Not supremely confident they're 11 points better, but they'll win and nail the under in a game where both teams will emphasize ball control, with only one team succeeding in it.
Fantasy Starts: Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings, Brock Purdy
Fantasy Sits: Jordan Mason, Rhamondre Stevenson
Sleepers: Demario Douglas
Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5)
This has to be a trap. Cleveland's been bad, but underdogs on the road to the Raiders? Guess Deshaun Watson's really rubbing off on these oddsmakers. Gross.
Maybe their defense isn't as good as last year's, but the Browns shouldn't have too much trouble against Gardner Minshew and/or Aidan O'Connell. If they do, it could be indicative of a passing of an old, formerly elite regime. Telling matchup in that regard.
Not a Watson believer by any means, and the Raiders D is decent despite what the Panthers just did to them. But just feels like this is a safe Browns win. Not one you need to set any reminders for.
Fantasy Starts: Jerome Ford
Fantasy Sits: Jakobi Meyers
Sleepers: Tre Tucker
Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert's seemingly in line to start, which feels like a bit of a rush on the Chargers' end. Their QB1 looked hampered before reinjuring his ankle in Pittsburgh, plus Chris Jones will be opposite of him all afternoon. Maybe Taylor Heinicke wouldn't have been the worst move for a week?
Shouldn't matter anyway. They offer minimal downfield threat even when Herbert's at 100%. With Kansas City being able to sell out against the run, it's going to be some ugly football.
Chiefs have won their last five against LA and there's no reason to suggest this won't be #6. Jim Harbaugh is a prideful man who won't let up, so give me the Chargers covering at home, but they won't steal this one from Mahomes. That under hits too, not the fireworks this matchup has previously afforded us.
Fantasy Starts: JK Dobbins
Fantasy Sits: Justin Herbert, Xavier Worthy
Sleepers: Samaje Perine
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)
Excited to be attending this one in person! As critical a showdown as it is challenging for the 1-2 Ravens, hosting a Bills team that's looked as good as any through three weeks.
Lamar Jackson's going to have his hands full versus a defense that's been really impressive, but possibly overachieving? Expecting the reigning MVP to have to scramble around a good bit from that interior pass rush, in search of safety blankets underneath with the occasional shot at a broken play down field. Feels like a tight end day in Baltimore.
The current MVP favorite, Josh Allen, has really elevated the guys around him through their undefeated start. Khalil Shakir's his only pass catcher with double digit receptions, leading a group that lacks star power but has plenty of chemistry. James Cook's been outstanding too, but this #1 running defense has something waiting for him.
The tale of the tape really suggests we're going to get an Allen-Jackson slugfest and I'm all for it. That doesn't always equate to big points, but it does equate to fun football. With admitted bias, going to roll with Baltimore to continue to right the ship after their 0-2 start. They're good at home and know what's on the line, pulling one out late. Thinking under too.
Fantasy Starts: Josh Allen, Isaiah Likely
Fantasy Sits: James Cook, Rashod Bateman
Sleepers: Justice Hill
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (-1.5) (Monday 9/30)
It's cool that we get Tyler Huntley and not a second round of Skylar Thompson, definitely appreciated. The on-field product may not end up being significantly better, but it'll be more entertaining than any of the crap Thompson was putting out there.
Terrible Monday Night game though, no cap. Both defenses are super startable in fantasy, with neither offense looking capable of sustaining long drives consistently. Of course, Miami has a little more of a big play threat with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but Huntley's got to get the ball through this third ranked pass D. Good luck.
Is Will Levis about to enter Matt Schaub territory and give us another pick six this week? The Dolphins' corners are up for that task. Curious what it would take for Brian Callahan to bench him? Not thinking it'll happen this week, but simply curious. Tennessee seems a little dysfunctional at the moment.
But feels like a Titans win, to really exacerbate the quarterback issue in Miami. Regardless of your opinion on the game, take the under and wait for the next game to come on to watch some actual football.
Fantasy Starts: Both defenses, Devon Achane
Fantasy Sits: Deandre Hopkins
Sleepers: Jonnu Smith
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-3.5) (Monday 9/30)
Much better. Last year's battle between these two teams finished at 38-35, something we're hoping to get a fraction of.
That'd require Jared Goff getting this Lions' offense into gear. As explosive as they look at times, they've been really stalled for much of the season. Seattle's #2 defense won't make it easy on him, with Mike MacDonald in the midst of reviving the No Fly Zone. Consequently have some hesitation on what to expect from Goff.
Detroit's D hasn't disappointed either, allowing just 17.6 points per game. Geno Smith's a good quarterback with some real weapons, but a legit pass rush can be his undoing. Aidan Hutchinson has a chance to make a big impact in that regard. Getting Kenneth Walker back will help, but this front seven also excels at stopping the run. Some real chess matches in store to wrap up week four.
Lions avenge their loss last season and get it done, securing the under in a fourth straight game. Seahawks cover though in a nailbiter!
Fantasy Starts: David Montgomery, DK Metcalf
Fantasy Sits: Jameson Williams
Sleepers: Seattle defense
------
@Choppinglines
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
Comments
Post a Comment