The AFC South-- easily one of the most interesting divisions we've got on the docket for this upcoming year. Jacksonville entered as favorites in 2023, racing out to an 8-3 start before an astronomical meltdown had them finish out of the playoffs at 9-8. Will they be able to avenge the embarrassing collapse, or will the crown go to the current favorites...
Houston Texans
It was a small, small contingency that predicted Houston win the South last season. What a rare combination of success off the jump from a rookie head coach and quarterback, with Demeco Ryans and CJ Stroud looking primed to tear things up in the league for a long time. Will the two be able to dodge a sophomore slump?
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Joe Mixon and Cam Akers have joined a backfield formerly held down by Dameon Pierce, after the second year running back had a terrible encore of his own. It'll be an interesting timeshare to keep an eye on. Stefon Diggs was the true marquee addition though, coming via trade with Buffalo at the beginning of April. The trio of him, Nico Collins and Tank Dell would help any young QB. Throw in a talented offensive line and this group's sky is the limit.
This Texans' defense has the teeth to make opponents work too, although Denico Autry's recent suspension won't help their D-line out for the first six games. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. should be as fearsome a duo as you'll find in the league at defensive end.
Behind them is a largely unproven linebacking core in front of Jimmie Ward and Jalen Pitre at safety. The two should have more than a couple of interceptions between them. Derek Stingley Jr. and Jeff Okudah are a solid pair at cornerback too, rounding out a secondary that won't be slept on for long.
One Bold Prediction: Stefon Diggs fails to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards. He'll be entering his tenth season in the league and has cleared 1K in every year since 2017. He's playing with quite possibly his best QB ever, but will also have a ton of competition for catches. Nico Collins and Tank Dell are each on the rise, while Dalton Schultz is going to contribute as well. Not saying Diggs completely falls off, but this is a "grass not always being greener" situation.
Indianapolis Colts
Not sure there's many players more exciting than Anthony Richardson. The rookie quarterback took the league by storm last season, with an electric style of play under center. Unfortunately, his recklessness resulted in multiple injuries, one of which eventually sidelined him for the final 12 games. His ability to remain healthy is going to be a key storyline all year.
Jonathan Taylor had a renaissance of sorts in the backfield, at least early in his return to action. He ultimately averaged 74.1 rushing per game on 4.4 yards a pop-- above average numbers for the position but perhaps not worth the hefty extension he received in October. Joshua Downs came on strong too in his rookie year, pairing nicely at receiver with Michael Pittman Jr. Excited to see how Adonai Mitchell fits into that mix.
Defensively, Indy should be competent, albeit with a low ceiling overall. DeForest Buckner is ferocious in the trenches, a destructive pairing with the emerging Kwity Paye. Grover Stewart is a force in the middle as well-- easily the best unit on this side of the ball. Zaire Franklin's a name to know at MIKE, and we like JuJu Brents at corner, but not a bunch of other big names. A workman's-like bunch that'll have some ups and downs.
One Bold Prediction: Adonai Mitchell leads all Colts, and rookie receivers, in yards per catch. Not expecting him to be a regular contributor in an offense already featuring MPJ and Josh Downs, but whether it's Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco throwing Mitchell the ball, they'll be finding him deep.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Still salty about the collapse down in Duval last season, costing me some nice money on a couple of future's bets. Hard to fully trust them this year as a result. Trevor Lawrence hasn't quite ascended to the lofty expectations set with being a number one pick. He's been decent, but not quite the game changer the franchise was banking on. Time's running out to change that stigma too.
Travis Etienne's a workhorse, but 3.8 yards a carry leaves plenty of room for improvement. Adding Mitch Morse and Ezra Cleveland to the offensive line should help him find more space on the ground. The Jaguars lost the inconsistent Calvin Ridley out wide, but replaced him with Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. out of LSU. Should be a better receiver room.
Arik Armstead was a nice addition at defensive end. He and the newly anointed Josh Hines-Allen should get after the quarterback with no problem. Travon Walker looks like he should be a contributor in that regard as well, after collecting five sacks in the final four games in 2023. Could be one of the more underrated pass rushes out there.
It'll have to live up to the hype, because the secondary isn't the strongest. Tyson Campbell's a nice piece out at cornerback, but there's not much to harp on outside of him. Ronald Darby was a pleasant surprise for Baltimore, will he be able to recapture that down in Jacksonville?
One Bold Prediction: Travon Walker records 15 or more sacks. The former #1 pick has all the tools to be a dominant pass rusher and we finally got to see it all start clicking. With Armstead now in the mix, look for Walker to find himself taking advantage of some preferred matchups.
Tennessee Titans
We'll finish up in Nashville, with Will Levis and his sex tape taking the reigns as minicamps start up. The second rounder showed some flashes in his nine games as a rookie, finishing with 8 touchdowns compared to 4 picks and 200 yards a game. A full offseason as QB1 will let the team find out if he's the guy moving forward.
Having Tony Pollard as the lead back won't help much with that. Big fan of his skillset, but he showed last year in Dallas that he probably isn't cut out to be a RB1 for any offense. TyJae Spears will surely be involved. Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd were nice additions to the receiving core, giving the Titans one of the premier trios at the position. Throw in recent first rounder JC Latham at left tackle to round out an already stout offensive line, and all eyes are on Levis.
On the flip side of the ball, Jeffery Simmons and Harold Landry are beasts in the trenches. Second rounder T'Vondre Sweat is a mountain of a man at nose tackle, it'll be fun to see his 362-pound self get after opposing backs.
Quite possibly the worst linebacking group in the league, "headlined" by free agent pickup Kenneth Murray Jr. L'Jarius Sneed was a worthwhile addition at corner too, coming via trade back in March. He's handsy, but Tennessee's needed help at the position for a long time after whiffing on guys like Caleb Farley in the draft.
One Bold Prediction: Tony Pollard won't be the starting running back by week eighteen. TyJae Spears looked good in limited opportunities last year, while Pollard seemingly was regressing down in Big D. It was always a head scratching replacement for Derrick Henry, which won't take long to reveal itself on the field.
Division Shakedown
This division could go a ton of different directions, with all four teams boast different, unique strengths. You could make legitimate arguments for any to win, but we have to give the nod to Houston. Barring a sophomore slump, they've got the best quarterback in the South and youthful talent across both sides of the ball. Things all came together for them down the stretch last year-- look for them to build upon it in CJ Stroud's encore campaign.
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@Choppinglines
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