Onto the AFC East we go, an oddly named bunch given that 3 of the 4 teams are geographically further north than the AFC North. But that's neither here nor there! We'll kick off what should be a super competitive group in Orchard Park with the defending divisional champion...
Buffalo Bills
For the first time in a while, we genuinely have no idea who'll be this team's leader in receiving yards. With former WR1 Stefon Diggs being shipped down to Houston in April, the door was opened wide for whoever wants to step up as Josh Allen's top target. However, a wide receiver room of Khalil Shakir, rookie Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Chase Claypool and MVS looks more like a fantasy waiver wire than a contender. We'll see how Allen can elevate the group.
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| Photo: Michael Owens/ Getty Images |
James Cook should also get some additional work in the passing game, off a season where he posted 1,567 total yards. Don't expect him to cede many carries to Ray Davis or Ty Johnson. This Buffalo offensive line should be at least middle of the pack as well, which should only help establish a strong run game.
Lots of turnover on the defensive side of the ball though, at least on the back end. It'll be strange not seeing Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde together at safety for the first time since 2017. Tre'Davious White's tenure with the club also came to a disappointing halt, as the oft-injured cornerback signed with the Rams a few months back. All of those moving pieces made the acquisition of Rasul Douglas at last season's trade deadline that much more important-- and it doesn't hurt that he played excellent.
The defensive line is still young and solid, especially in the pass rush department. We'll see how much linebacker Matt Milano looks like himself once he's medically cleared, as the team really didn't handle his absence well in '23. Bringing in Deion Jones to provide depth at the position may end up being a critical under the radar move by GM Brandon Beane.
One Bold Prediction: Josh Allen fails to clear 4,000 yards passing for the first time since 2019 while setting a career high for carries. Allen's a gamer, more than willing to put the team on his back and legs to get the job done by himself. Buffalo's pass catching core is deep but really lacks an upper echelon talent. Keon Coleman could be special out of Florida State, but will he be able to step up as the top wideout week one? This'll be a clunky offense, at least for the first half of the season.
Miami Dolphins
In terms of pure skill, there may not be a more stacked roster than Miami in the entire league. A receiving duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, now featuring Odell Beckham Jr. as a third wheel. Terron Armstead and Austin Jackson bookending the offensive line keeps the pocket as secure as any. Jalen Ramsey and Jevon Holland are two high level guys in the secondary, happy to welcome the aforementioned Poyer to the mix as well.
But there's a bunch of question marks. Tua Tagovailoa played in all 17 games last season, quieting some concerns regarding his ability to safely return from a terrifying concussion saga. Despite the gaudy numbers the QB put up, Miami routinely struggled against quality opponents while inflating their stats against inferior ones. The end result was a supremely predictable first round beatdown from Kansas City. If that doesn't improve, this team's a total non-threat to win the Super Bowl.
Raheem Mostert and Devon Achane are as fun a thunder and lightning combination as you'll find. The Dolphins performed noticeably better when they got their two stud backs involved, too often quickly abandoning the run when falling behind even slightly. Mike McDaniel needs to stay disciplined in that regard.
Pass rushers Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb are returning from a torn Achilles and ACL, respectively, and are both unlikely to be 100% for week one. Phillips may be good to go, but Chubb landing on the PUP wouldn't be the least bit surprising. It's a big blow to a defense that can generate some pressure when fully equipped.
One Bold Prediction: Tua Tagovailoa throws for over 5,000 passing yards. The man has already earned himself a big-time extension, statistically if for no other reason. In a quarterback-driven league, barring another concussion, there's no way Miami lets him hit the open market. And that means a big season from Tua equates to a possible record breaking deal. Look for his fifth year to be an astronomical one.
New England Patriots
It's going to be very strange not having Bill Belichick scouring up and down the sideline in Foxborough for the first time in over 20 years. The Jerod Mayo era is officially upon us, not without a few bumps and bruises from the media as he navigates the new role.
Drake Maye will be doing some learning of his own, as the #3 pick attempts to usurp current starter Jacoby Brissett under center. Not a new spot for Brissett to find himself in, as lame duck a position if there ever was one, but the vibe is that Mayo is going to make Maye fully earn the position before handing over the reigns. Should be a fun training camp competition.
Running back Rhamondre Stevenson inked a 4-year, $36 million extension a month ago, so expect him to be the bell cow. Expect new signee Antonio Gibson to cut into his pass production some. Rookie Ja'Lynn Polk joins a sneaky decent wide receiver room, featuring Kendrick Bourne, Demario Davis and Juju Smith-Schuster. Like Buffalo, the group is much deeper than it is talented, but plenty for Brissett and Maye to work with.
New England's front seven should be middle of the pack. Matthew Judon's a great pass rusher, while Deatrich Wise Jr. and Josh Uche have also had success in that area. If 2023 second rounder Keion White can emerge at defensive end, it'd really raise this group's ceiling.
The pass defense will hinge largely on the health of Christian Gonzalez. Last year's top selection showed out in four games before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury. Pairing him with Jonathan Jones on the perimeter is a pretty solid tandem. Kyle Duggar is an above average safety to have on the back end with the spark plug that is Jabrill Peppers. A decent defense all around, but not a ton of blue-chip guys.
One Bold Prediction: Drake Maye doesn't start week one. The UNC product was a bit raw coming out of college, but offered prototypical traits for the position that were hard to pass up. Jacoby Brissett is more than capable of managing a few games while the rookie gets his feet wet. We'll also sign off on Ja'Lynn Polk leading the team in receiving yards. He was a big play threat at Washington who should get some favorable matchups.
New York Jets
Wrapping up the division with quite possibly the most polarizing team of the bunch, Gang Green. Any organization with Aaron Rodgers as their quarterback is inevitably going to find their way to the headlines, as they did this week with reports of his Egyptian vacation at the expense of OTA's. Not much more than media drama, but not news I'd want to hear out of my favorite organization. Word on the street is Rodgers' is 100% back from his Achilles' tear, can't wait to see how that looks.
Breece Hall was a solid dual-threat back in 2023, especially when considering the horrendous play from their offensive line and whoever was under center. Thinking this season we'll see his ground yardage increase at the expense of his receiving production. Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams will make a hell of a 1-2, for as long as Williams can remain on the field anyway. Xavier Gipson carved a nice role for himself at wideout, as should Allen Lazard with his good buddy A-Aron back.
The O-line underwent a thorough overhaul this offseason, with additions of Tyron Smith, John Simpson, Morgan Moses and first round tackle Olu Fashanu. Not sure everyone of this acquisitions will be a hit, but it was a necessary move to add some competition and depth in a group coming off an embarrassing campaign.
On the flip side of the ball, this New York defense has some teeth. Jermaine Johnson, Javon Kinlaw and Quinnen Williams have the makings of a ferocious pass rush-- plus we haven't even mentioned the weird Haason Reddick saga, who could add another dominant rusher to that unit if the two sides ever figure out his contract. Typical Jets there.
CJ Mosley is a decent run stuffer at middle linebacker, but a perpetual liability in the pass game. Fortunately for him, Chuck Clark and Tony Adams are adequate at covering the tight end position, while corners Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed hold down the perimeter. No reason this D can't finish in the top 10.
One Bold Prediction: Breece Hall finishes with the most total yards in the NFL. With Aaron Rodgers at the helm and a highly improved offensive line, the uber-talented back should have no problem getting going on the ground while still providing a threat to bust a big catch-and-run on any given snap. Looking for a big year from the former Iowa State Cyclone.
Division Shakedown
This time last year, Jets were the darlings of America-- and we all saw how quickly that came crashing down. Really difficult division to pick once again here, but something tells me Miami actually wins the crown. They should get some really quality reinforcements on defense as the season progresses, while boasting an offense that can hang with the best of them.
Also have a sneaking suspicion that the Bills will narrowly miss out on the playoffs. Not sure I'd put money where my mouth is in that regard, just a gut feeling.
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@Choppinglines
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