Onto the National League we go, which means we're less than 3 weeks from the start to the regular season! Spring Training is really heating up, the final free agents are starting to latch on and we're getting a more complete picture of what's to come. It's getting close.
But we have the three NL divisions to discuss first! And we'll start today with the reigning Kings of the East...
Atlanta Braves
Last season's top team record-wise had their title aspirations come to a disappointing and abrupt conclusion in the NLDS, at the hands of their divisional rivals Philadelphia. It's a gross and relatable feeling as an Orioles fan.
But the Braves didn't get any worse this offseason. Matt Olson was a monster in 2023, mashing a league high 54 dingers-- no reason to think he'll fall off too rapidly. Ozzie Albies and Orlando Arcia are an above average duo up the middle, while third baseman Austin Riley would find himself to be a sneaky MVP candidate, if Shohei Ohtani wasn't also in the NL.
Jarred Kelenic was a high upside risk to take for Atlanta, sending Jackson Kowar and Cole Phillips to Seattle for the underachieving left fielder. He'll join the uber-athletic Michael Harris and reigning MVP Ronald Acuna in a respectable outfield. Marcell Ozuna will bring some authority from the DH spot, sparing the world from some iffy defensive abilities.
The Chris Sale trade wouldn't move many needles at this point in his career, but as the 5th starter, he could be a tremendously valuable addition. Max Fried and Spencer Strider are as dominant a 1-2 punch as you'll find, while Charlie Morton would be an ace on a handful of franchises. Bryce Elder is coming off a campaign where he posted a 3.64 ERA, while 22-year old AJ Smith-Shawver provides some youthful potential. Deep and intimidating rotation here.
And after battling through those arms, you have to deal with Raisel Iglesias throwing heaters to you in the ninth. Iglesias rocked a 2.75 ERA en route to 33 saves-- good for 8th most in the sport. AJ Minter and Joe Jimenez setting things up for him is equally as challenging for opposing batters. A little thin outside of that, but the foundational places are there for what could be a top unit.
Miami Marlins
The Fish, as some refer to them, find themselves in a strange spot this March. They've got incredible players, plus a few young guns on the rise that could provide even more spark. But the recent results, per the eye test anyway, have been wishy-washy at best.
The signing of free agent Josh Bell is a huge one for a team that ranked in the bottom ten for power numbers. The first baseman has averaged 23.5 homers in the six seasons he's played for 60 or more games in. He'll slot in next to the league's top contact hitter Luis Arraez on the right side of the infield. The left side features a wily veteran in Tim Anderson who'll be helping two formerly promising prospects gain some traction. Jake Burger and Vidal Brujan were each pretty highly regarded in Chicago and Tampa, respectively, before ending up in South Beach. The change of scenery immediately benefitted the former, who posted a .303 average in his short stint with the Marlins after being scooped up on a trade deadline deal.
Jazz Chisholm is the big name in the outfield for Miami, patrolling center with an impressive amount of athleticism. He's got some refining to do at the dish, but definitely an exciting prospect to track. 27-year old Bryan de la Cruz holds down left, coming off career highs for homers and RBI, while right will be a bit more of a committee, with Jesus Sanchez likely earning the first crack.
The staff took a big hit with Sandy Alcantara needing Tommy John surgery last October, setting him up to miss all of 2024. That'll leave lefty Jesus Luzardo as the impromptu ace for the year, a role he's capable of holding down to some extent or another. Braxton Garrett and Eury Perez are solid mid-rotation guys, while AJ Puk and Trevor Rogers are two high upside guys to fill things out. Keep an eye on former third overall pick Max Meyer too, no reason a strong spring wouldn't have him in this group.
A lot of questions in the bullpen however. Tanner Scott had a strong 2023, but Orioles fans like me know to be weary of investing too heavily in his talent. Let's see if he can run it back first. Andrew Nardi is an above average 8th inning man, but it's a pretty steep drop off from there. The clear weak link of this roster.
New York Mets
What a clown show this organization's quickly turned into. Excessive spending, declining talent, low quality on-field product and then the reports of roster manipulation. Tough life as a Mets fan.
Francisco Alvarez is one bright spot however, ripping 25 home runs in his short 2023 stint. At just 22 years of age, he's got immense power prospects. Something Pete Alonso is well known for, in addition to losing the Home Run Derby. Should be a bounty of bombs between the two. Jeff McNeil is steady at second, while Francisco Lindor provides some pop at short. The Brett Baty/Mark Vientos platoon at third should be a worthwhile battle to watch, two promising up and comers at the hot corner.
Not as much optimism behind this infield. For what it's worth, DJ Stewart played in 56 games for this team last year-- a scarring notion for the O's faithful. He's been okay for New York though, glad to see him continuing along with his career. Brandon Nimmo is decent, surely not worth the 8-year , $162 million dollar deal he got last offseason. Harrison Bader makes for an interesting lottery ticket, that should be a defensive upgrade at a minimum as he returns to his home state. But yeah, not the names Steve Cohen would be hoping for in year three.
Kodai Senga's transition to American ball was about as seamless as one could've asked for, going 10-7 with a 2.98 ERA and just under 13 K/9. Then a bunch of dart throws. Jose Quintana had a respectable '23 season, but he's been too up and down in recent years to put a ton of weight into that. Sean Manaea is a pretty average arm, Luis Severino kind of sucks. Another subpar unit here.
Cue the trumpets though, because Edwin Diaz is coming back. After tearing his patellar tendon celebrating a World Baseball Classic victory, the All-Star closer is set to return to his post-- a welcome addition to a group that needed a little boost. Brooks Raley and Adam Ottavino are reliable back inning guys, while Shintaro Fujinami and Jorge Lopez are teeming with upside that's as captivating as it is volatile. The Mets should be able to nail down most of the occasional leads they take late into any ball game.
Philadelphia Phillies
Shoutout to Kurtz's boys here, from the City of Brotherly Love! A year ago, they upset the Bravos in the NLDS before falling to Arizona a round later. No reason to think a return trip couldn't be in the cards.
Where to start on this infield? JT Realmuto, Bryson Stott, Trea Turner, Alec Bohm-- and now Bryce Harper at first. All are capable of hitting 20+ dingers with plenty production in between. Edmundo Sosa and Jake Cave make up some decent depth as well, spelling few periods of relief for opposing pitchers.
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| Photo: Tim Nwachukwu/ Getty Images |
Kyle Schwarber's technically an outfielder, though the lack of athleticism may throw you for a curve. But he's not going to miss if you hang that curve, coming off a 47 homer, 104 RBI campaign-- both career bests. He's an absolute force in the middle of the lineup that can't be overlooked. Nick Castellanos will be Philly's everyday man in right, while Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas and recently inked Whit Merrifield split duties in center and left.
The front office just made Zack Wheeler an even richer man, extending the top starter earlier this week to the tune of 3-years and $126 million. He's earned every cent since joining the team in 2020, going 43-25 since coming over from the Queens. Aaron Nola will be his right hand man, also signing a lucrative deal last November. They're a fantastic and underrated tandem. Unlike Wheeler, Taijuan Walker was not as sharp after signing away from the Mets, but no reason to think the 31 year old can't improve on his 4.38 ERA. Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez round out the rotation-- at least until Mick Abel gets the nod.
Philadelphia's relievers are one of the more complete units in all of baseball. Lefty Jose Alvarado averaged just under 14 K/9 in 2023, priming himself for the title of closer. Jeff Hoffman, Seranthony Dominguez and Matt Strahm all had ERA's under 3.80 last year and shouldn't fall off much. There's enough decent pieces behind the four to round this group out nicely.
Washington Nationals
Admittedly, I'm not that low on Washington's long term prospects. However, this is not going to be the season we see that turnaround really get underway.
Keibert Ruiz is a fun, young prospect behind the dish-- coming over from LA as a key component in the 2021 Trea Turner deal. He could be in for a mini breakout as he enters his third full stint. Joey Meneses would make for a fine depth guy at first, not your ideal starter. 23-year olds CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr. will be a duo Nats fans watch intently at second and short. Their development will have a big impact on the speed of this rebuild. Nick Senzel is an adequate addition to get some burn on the hot corner, especially if Carter Kieboom continues to come up short.
That Joey Gallo signing really made a splash in the outfield here... But seriously, he will be seeing the field plenty. Lane Thomas will be a mainstay in right, with Victor Robles holding down center as much as his health permits, leaving left field wide open. Definitely a window for star prospects James Wood and/or Dylan Crews to make an appearance, sooner than later.
Pretty pedestrian bunch of starters overall. MacKenzie Gore and Josiah Gray have some talent and promise which Washington is hoping will blossom. Gray needs to get the walk numbers down in order to improve his outlook. But then the albatross that is Patrick Corbin, making $25 million to likely post an ERA north of 5.00. The contract is done after this season however, which is cause for celebration. They've also gotten their innings out of him, for whatever that's worth. Trevor Williams and Jake Irvin aren't very good, maybe Cade Cavalli can break through by the summer?
I wish it was in Baltimore, but Hunter Harvey's career revival has been awesome to see. He's coming off had a campaign with a WHIP below one, establishing himself as a premier setup man on a bad team-- smells like trade bait this July. Kyle Finnegan's the closer, a role he handled well in 2023 in limited opportunities. Jordan Weems is a viable arm too, but from there it's a total crap shoot, with an emphasis on the crap. Perhaps some longer starts will spare the world from the depths of this bullpen.
Bold Predictions
-The Braves and Phillies each win 100 or more games
-Chris Sale wins at least 9 games
-Jesus Luzardo is traded at some point during the season
-Miami will have the highest bullpen ERA in the NL
-Francisco Alvarez hits 34 or more bombs
-Kodai Senga keeps his ERA sub-3.00 for a second consecutive year
-Philly has the best bullpen ERA in the NL
-Aaron Nola notches more wins and strikeouts than Zack Wheeler
-James Wood and Dylan Crews are starting in the Nats' outfield by the end of the season
-Keibert Ruiz hits above .275 with 25+ dingers
Predicted Final Standings
1. Atlanta Braves
2. Philadelphia Phillies
3. New York Mets
4. Miami Marlins
5. Washington Nationals
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@Choppinglines
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