Onto the NL Central we go, into one of the sneakier decent divisions the sport has to offer. The St. Louis Cardinals fell far short of expectations in 2023, costing me a pretty penny while opening things up for some other teams to make a splash. With free agency all but done and another season of development under these prospects' belts, this group is wide open once again-- sans Pittsburgh of course.
Should be a fun group with an entertaining bit of parity. Let's throw the opening pitch here:
Chicago Cubs
Out to Wrigley we go for a look in on the Cubbies! Patrick Wisdom is a nice power piece that can play either corner of the infield. He's not much for contact, but he'll supply you a long ball with some regularity. Matt Mervis and Christopher Morel may split some time with him at first, but it appears to be a full on committee there. Nico Hoerner at second is a quality leadoff man, with Dansby Swanson holding down short. The club would like a little more production out of their splash 2023 free agent pickup, coming off a .244/22/80 line.
Cody Bellinger's recent resigning was huge for the club, retaining the versatile outfielder after another strong campaign. He'll hold down center when Mike Tauchman needs a blow, spending the rest of his time floating around the diamond wherever Craig Counsell needs him. Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ will help hold down right, while up and comer Alexander Canario fits in wherever there's space. Much more upside than the infield.
This Chicago staff is one to key in on though. Justin Steele is a bona fide star, coming off a 16-5 year with a 3.06 ERA. He's my pick to win the NL Cy Young. Lefty Shota Imanaga was a marquee acquisition from Japan who should assist Jameson Taillon and Kyle Hendricks in solidifying the middle of the rotation. The battle for the 5th and final spot is likely between Jordan Hicks and Drew Smyly.
Adbert Alzolay is in line to run it back as closer again, after converting 22/25 opportunities a season ago. Flamethrower Hector Neris will be setting up the ninth for him, with Javier Assad, Mark Leiter JR. and Julian Merriweather being the primary middle relief guys. Veterans Jose Cuas and Keegan Thompson will duke it out with up and comers Daniel Palencia and Luke Little to round out what should be a pretty middle of the pack pen.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are quickly growing into my favorite National League team. A youthful bunch, just boiling over with explosive potential across the board. Will this be the season it all clicks?
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| Photo: Katie Stratman- Reuters |
Elly de la Cruz is the name everyone knows in the infield, bringing some of the more exciting plays to Major League Baseball during his abbreviated rookie stint. After slashing just .235 however, he'll need to ramp up the production to match the hype. Young guns Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand will hold down the corners, while Jonathan India and Matt McLain split time at second. India's the oldest of the group, at the ripe age of 28, providing bountiful optimism for Cincinnati fans.
TJ Friedl and his team-leading average will be holding down center much of 2024, with Jake Fraley in right and Will Benson in left. Stuart Fairchild will be the 4th outfielder in a room that isn't particularly impressive. Look for the Reds to try and upgrade in this area near the deadline.
The starting pitching is going to be a lot of fun though. 25-year old Hunter Greene is the headliner of the bunch, but his title of ace could be up for debate. Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft and Andrew Abbott are each similarly aged and plenty talented. Brandon Williamson got a ton of shit as the 5th starter for this team a year ago, but he settled in nicely by the end. Expect to see him in a similar role once again.
9th inning man Alexis Diaz was a real weapon for Cincy in 2023, recording 37 saves on 40 chances (92.5%) while also leading the team in wins, with 9. Hard to do that, but it was an impressive season overall that he'll look to build upon. You'll generally see Lucas Sims in the 8th, coming off a campaign where he had 23 holds of his own. Buck Farmer, contrary to the name, is a solid right hander and not the surveyor of a deer herd. He and Ian Gibaut will take some middle inning work along with Sam Moll, who posted a 0.73 ERA in his 25 appearances. Plenty of upside in all of these arms.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brew Crew, still sporting their divisional crown from a season ago. Unfortunately, their outlook for the '24 season isn't quite screaming repeat.
William Contreras is a solid piece behind the dish, fresh off a .291/17/78 campaign. While it wouldn't be surprising in the least for their top catching prospect Jeferson Quero to make his big league debut in the coming months, don't think it'll be stealing much valuable time from Contreras. Rhys Hoskins was a nice pickup a few weeks ago to add a little pop at first, while newcomer Joey Ortiz holds down the hot corner opposite. Willy Adames and Brice Turang will be up the middle, filling out the remainder of what could be a decent, little infield.
Milwaukee's mainstay in left field, Christian Yelich, was finally able to marginally snap out of the funk he'd found himself in since pre-COVID, missing just 18 games en route to a .278/19/76 line. A far cry from the MVP numbers he had become known for, but at least a guy you didn't feel guilty about penciling into the lineup each day. Jackson Chourio is an up and coming monster in center, a considerable play for Rookie of the Year, while Garrett Mitchell will have an opportunity to establish himself in right. If he's unable to, the Joey Wiemer/Sal Frelick platoon will live on.
Trading away Corbin Burnes February was a huge blow to the staff. Brandon Woodruff is unlike to pitch this season too, leaving the Brewers with Wade Miley, Freddy Peralta, Colin Rea, Joe Ross and DL Hall to handle starting duties once every five games. All were pretty solid a season ago, but it may be asking a lot of this bunch to shoulder the load for the full 162.
Devin Williams was lockdown in the final frame in 2023, holding opponents to a .129 batting average against while securing 36 saves. No reason to think he can't maintain that level of dominance as he enters his sixth season in the bigs. Joel Payamps and Bryse Wilson lead the way to the ninth, coming off campaigns where they posted 2.55 and 2.58 ERA's, respectively. Elvis Peguero, Trevor McGill and Abner Uribe compose the rest of this above average relief crew-- we'll see how many leads they get to protect.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Over to Pittsburgh we go, one of the league's long-running talent factories. What a frustrating team to root for, constantly having to watch your up and coming stars get traded away for pennies on the dollar. But hey, the front office brought Andrew McCutcheon back, so it's all good, right?
This is an interesting Pirates' roster however. Some of those expected stars, like Bryan Reynolds and Ke'Bryan Hayes, haven't quite hit the lofty expectations that would generally result in their departure from the franchise, and now merge with some of the new class of prospects like Henry Davis and Oneil Cruz. A perfect storm brewing for the Bucs?
Seriously though, middle infield prospects Liover Peguero and Nick Gonzales will also be joining this youthful overhaul, saturating an infield that already had underrated talents in Connor Joe and Ji Hwan Bae. Rowdy Tellez will also get some work at first too. None are world beaters alone, but together they provide a ton of versatility and potential.
Cutch and Reynolds hold down 2/3's of the outfield, while Jack Suwinski continues his quiet development in center. Josh Palacios will factor into the rotation some as well, but overall the outfield doesn't quite have the upside of the infield.
The rotation however, has some wild cards. Mitch Keller's a little up and down, but when he shines when it's all clicking. Martin Perez is a really good lefty to add to the bunch, traveling up from Arlington with a ring on his finger. And it's a total crapshoot from there. Johan Oviedo's shoulder surgery really hampers his positive trajectory. Quinn Priester was shaky at best in his limited work last season, as was Bailey Falter. How long 'til Paul Skenes gets the call?
Very surprised we didn't see David Bednar moved last July, allowing him to lay the bed rock for the bullpen once again. His 39 saves were good for second most in the league a year ago. Colin Holderman and Ryan Borucki are two reliable arms, while Aroldis Chapman could add a real infusion of zip. This group could manage to secure some leads, if they're able to get them early on.
St. Louis Cardinals
My least favorite team of 2023...such high hopes, weak division with seemingly no competition. -130 to win the Central and they completely flop into the basement. All year long, consistently, providing no hope for a positive return on my investment. Disgusting. Call me bitter, but not thinking they're in much of a position to turn things around.
The infield shouldn't be one of their weak points. Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras is one of the finest corners/catcher combinations that you'll find in the league; although all three are coming off somewhat disappointing offensive showings. At least one of them should be due for a stronger '24. Second baseman Nolan Gorman is just 23, coming off a career high 27 dingers. He could use to improve the .236 OBP however. Gorman will be opposite of Tommy Edman at short-- depending how long he can hold off top prospect Masyn Winn. Definitely some talent on the dirt in St. Louis.
Former top dog in the farm system Jordan Walker provided plenty to be excited for during his rookie stint, providing some pop and athleticism to the outfield with room to grow. Lars Nootbaar will get most of the reps in center, boasting one of the more quality names in the league, but don't be surprised to see a little Dylan Carlson out there. Brendan Donovan should be the regular in left, along with Matt Carpenter at designated hitter. If the latter can rediscover the form he showed with the Cards in the late teens, it could be a real wild card in the lineup.
Sonny Gray was a nice addition to the staff this winter, albeit reeking of a little desperation/overpay. He bolsters a group that needed help though. Drew Rom came up late and was alright, while Miles Mikolas was middling overall. Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson will be in there as well, also off the free agent market and neither teeming with much buzz. Maybe this is the year Matthew Liberatore figures it out?!
Not much more room for optimism in the pen either. Ryan Helsley is a decent young closer, but he doesn't really have much else around him. Andrew Pallante and Giovanny Gallegos each are coming off campaigns with ERA's north of 4.40, while Wilking Rodriguez hasn't pitched in the majors in a decade. Keynan Middleton should be decent, and Steven Matz could be a stabilizing long arm, but a disturbing lack of pitching from the Cardinals.
Bold Predictions
-Nico Hoerner sets a career high for stolen bases, would need 44 or more
-Justin Steele NL Cy Young winner
-Hunter Greene will have the top K/9 in the MLB
-.280/25/100 year on deck for Spencer Steer
-Jackson Chourio wins NL Rookie of the Year
-No Brewers starter records double digit wins
-The Pirates secure a Wild Card spot
-Martin Perez and Mitch Keller each win 15+ decisions
-Nolan Arenado fails to hit above .250 for the first time in his career
-25+ home runs for Jordan Walker
Predicted Final Standings
1. Cincinnati Reds
2. Pittsburgh Pirates
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Milwaukee Brewers
5. St. Louis Cardinals
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@Choppinglines
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