NFL Draft season is upon us, with a little under two months until the big weekend. Sounds like ample time to familiarize ourselves with some of the top guys. Naturally, we'll kick things off with the quarterback room-- a bunch of diverse skill sets and talents brought to the table by all of these guys.
The first round will be an interesting one.
The Big Names
Weird that none of the three guys below did any testing for the combine. Some called it historic, but we'll see how it pans out come draft night. Seems #1 is a surefire lock, just a matter of finding out the landing spot for...
Caleb Williams: The 22-year old USC star has been waiting for his name to be called first for a little over a year now, and for good reason. He's an above average athlete with good pocket presence, a strong arm and top notch improvisational skills. You don't have to watch a ton of film on him to see him making off-platform throws into tight windows. From a pure skillset standpoint, the kid's got it all.
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| Photo: Jason Parkhurst/ USA Today Sports |
But there's bountiful red flags to note. The vibe of entitlement from his alleged comments about demanding an ownership stake in whatever team selects him-- like, you're not Tom Brady. In fact, he's only gone 16-10 over his last 2 years in the overall weak PAC-12. Admittedly, that was more of a defensive issue than offensive, but I'd like to think a higher caliber QB can pull his team out of those situations more regularly. The tears to Mom after the Notre Dame loss-- some people saw passion, I saw pity. His personality just doesn't radiate leadership.
On-field, one can't help but wonder if he facilitates many of the circus throws that he makes due to holding the ball too long. Are guys not open, or is he slow/unconfident in his reads? He definitely won't be able to slip and slide around the pocket with as much success on the next level. Some say his height will be an obstacle in the NFL too, but given his style of play, I think that'll ultimately be a non-issue.
Drake Maye: Maye represents more of your traditional mold at quarterback: a strong-armed, 6' 4" gunslinger with limited mobility. He's got a top notch deep ball, whether his feet are set or not. He's rarely looking to run, so his eyes are always downfield-- and when those windows open up, he's got the arm talent to fit it in. His solid pocket awareness helps with this process as well.
But he's got his accuracy issues on shorter throws, too often failing to hit his receivers until after their breaks. This could be due to a lack of trust in them, but time will tell. Pressuring Maye was also a recipe for success more often than not, with the quarterback struggling against blitzes. Turnovers, particularly against that aforementioned pressure, were an issue. And we can't just gloss over their 6-0 start and 2-4 finish-- with their final two wins over Campbell and Duke (in 2OT). In such a weak ACC, it's not an endearing look.
Jayden Daniels: The 2023 Heisman Winner has been steadily climbing draft boards since September and it doesn't take much tape to see why. Comparisons to Lamar Jackson aren't unfounded, with a very similar style of play. Daniels lacks some of the world-class twitchiness and top end speed Lamar boasts, but only marginally. He's got great touch and above average placement on the deep ball, which he connected on regularly. His ball protection was also borderline flawless, throwing for 40 touchdowns compared to just 4 interceptions. On top of that, he rushed for 1,134 yards and 10 scores on 8.4 yards a clip-- all without a lost fumble. Squeaky.
There are some questions about Daniels' ability to function in an offense that doesn't feature two top tier receivers. Malik Nabers is arguably the best wideout in the class, while Brian Thomas Jr. is top-five on many a list, providing the LSU quarterback with an unparalleled amount of wide open looks over the top + playmaking after the catch.
There'll be plenty of critics declaring his playing style isn't sustainable long-term in the NFL too, which I'm a little quicker to dismiss. Could be the Lamar apologist in me though, so buyer beware, but Daniels is 6'4", 23 years old and already showed last offseason that he's willing and able to bulk up. Slowly creeping closer to my #2 QB.
Second Tier
Michael Penix Jr.: I had Penix Jr. as my Heisman winner up until the last 3 weeks of the season or so, it was that special of a campaign for the Washington Huskie. 4,903 passing yards and 36 touchdowns en route to a NCAA Championship appearance. It ended in a loss, but regardless, what a way to end a career.
You'll immediately notice that Penix Jr. is a lefty, which is at least worth noting. I'm not sure it's a trait that scares off any team, if the talent is worthy, but it's certainly uncommon. This dude's got a lot of arm talent though. Incredibly accurate from the pocket, all over the field. Puts great touch on the ball, but can add some zip if necessary.
Like Daniels, MPJ played with really good receivers. Rome Odunze may end up sneaking into the top 10 overall, while Ja'Lynn Polk more than held his own opposite. Penix also has a laundry list of injury concerns, including two right ACL repairs and a surgery on his throwing shoulder. Despite the obvious talent, the durability concerns alone are tremendous.
Bo Nix: Feels like this section should've been written two years ago. Five full years of a higher end QB play in the among the powerhouse teams is increasingly rarer these days, even with COVID extensions. Despite the prolonged collegiate tenure, Nix is still only 24 years old-- not exactly a Brandon Weeden in this group.
The Oregon Duck brings some dual-threat capability to the table, adding a wrinkle to any offense he ends up in. He shows good improvisational skills in the face of pressure, utilizing his athleticism to make the most out of broken plays. Shows solid accuracy underneath with experience in multiple different offenses.
On the flip side, that short ball accuracy begins to dwindle pretty significantly the deeper the pass gets. Many of his highlights are slightly underthrown balls where a receiver is wide open or has to adjust to make the catch. That'll be harder to get by with in the pros. He also never really had a signature win in some of the big games with Auburn and Oregon, despite a number of prominent opportunities versus other national powerhouses. Similar to Caleb Williams, that's at least worth noting, if not a true red flag.
JJ McCarthy: In my opinion, one of the more overrated quarterback prospects to enter the league in a long time. Maybe since Christian Hackenburg.
The two-season starter at Michigan was never asked to do much in their run-heavy offense, but he did produce enough when necessary-- as evidenced by a 44-9 TD-INT ratio during that span. McCarthy does display above average accuracy on his short passes, which were crucial in icing away big games. He's also young, just turning 21 two months ago, and looks like a quarterback.
But I have concerns about his arm strength translating effectively to the NFL. He definitely doesn't have the most zip of this class. The true lack of production is a hard thing to get on board with too-- is this more of a system guy or can his skill set translate across multiple offenses? Leadership and maturity don't seem to be issues that'll impede his development, but at a minimum, he feels to raw to jump right into a starting role. Personally, feels like a bust.
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@Choppinglines
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