Two worthy teams squaring off for the right to call themselves Super Bowl Champions. Some would say a little chalky, others would argue legitimately scripted, but this isn't a matchup that should catch anybody off guard. And it certainly shouldn't disappoint either.
Let's break things down:
Chiefs Offense vs. 49ers Defense
We'll get the obvious question out of the way early here: what is San Francisco going to do to stop Patrick Mahomes? Even with arguably his weakest supporting cast, #15 has figured things out over the last month or so, winning 5 of his last 6 starts to get to this point.
It isn't always pretty, but he's found Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce and even Marques Valdes-Scantling for big plays when it's been necessary. When they've been covered up, Mahomes has been able to get it done with his legs, averaging 26 yards per game over his last 5. This will be the premier chess match in a game featuring so many others.
Isaiah Pacheco is going to have his hands full against the third best run stopping unit from the regular season. The notion of running into a front seven featuring Javon Hargrave, Arik Armstead, Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw, Javon Kinlaw, and others, not particularly appealing-- especially with star guard Joe Thuney's lack of availability. It's going to take a special effort by the offensive line to help get the second year back going and balance this offense out.
However, if they're able to do that, Mahomes should be able to find holes in this secondary. As talented a defense as this is, they don't have quite the top end talent on the back end and perimeter that they do up front, so generating pressure is essential. The Niners have the dudes to do it, but if they're worried about getting gashed in the run game, they won't be able to pin their ears back and go. Detroit put some pretty good film on how to do that two weeks ago, can Kansas City replicate it?
49ers Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
As I said on the podcast this week, you can bet your ass the 49ers aren't going to abandon the run at any point in this game. Christian McCaffery is the little engine that makes this offense go and there's no reason Kyle Shanahan will get away from it. Expect runs, screens, maybe even a pass out of the running back. It'd be shocking to see CMC touch the ball less than 20 times.
That's no disrespect to Brock Purdy either. While being surrounded by talent obviously has it's benefits, you still have to make the reads and hit the throws. Not many in the league did it better than Purdy this year, despite how few people are willing to admit it. It'll be interesting to see how he attacks Trent McDuffie and L'Jarius Sneed, Kansas City's talented cornerbacks. Shanahan deploys Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk so creatively, expecting some fireworks on the perimeter.
The Chiefs defend the tight end well, so a classic Kittle line of like 2-3 catches for 30-50 yards seems in order. But they'll be chain movers, with attitude, and at least one will come at a crucial junction. No way Spagnuolo completely contains him. Thinking Aiyuk is set for the biggest day of San Francisco's receivers, after enduring a relatively quiet postseason thus far-- outside of his facemask catch against Detroit.
Props We Like
-Big fan of both quarterback rushing props in this game. Patrick Mahomes has run for 29, 44 and 33 yards in his three previous Super Bowl appearances, all above his line of 26.5. He's averaging 25 a game through this postseason. I love his over here
-Brock Purdy's over of 12.5 yards rushing catches the eye. The Chiefs have given up 50.3 YPG to opposing quarterbacks during their run, while Purdy has rushed 5 and 6 times times in their two games. With Kansas City's talented corners and Chris Jones blowing up the interior pocket, there should be a couple of opportunities to scramble. He's currently +300 for 25+ rushing, which is also intriguing
-Christian McCaffery's adjusted over of 80+ rushing yards for -180 seems like his safest value play. He's hard to stop, but I don't think Spags is going to let him dictate the entire game
-Rashee Rice 60+ receiving and a touchdown is going for +195 currently on FanDuel. Nice little combo play there
-Marques Valdes-Scantling longest reception over 13.5 feels like the lock of the year for me. The dude might only catch one or two a game, but they're not generally short
-Brandon Aiyuk is my preferred receiver in this one to Deebo, just feels like he's due. Lock him in for his over of 60.5 receiving yards
-Can't imagine Mahomes finishing under 250 passing yards each, Purdy 225+ feels safest there. I think he'll be challenged some by KC's corners
-Something in my gut says take Harrison Butker at + money for over 7.5 kicking points...take that for what it's worth
Official Prediction
The 49ers are the better roster overall, pretty hard to deny that, but it's really hard to look at Patrick Mahomes for + money and pick against him. The betting public has cautiously agreed with this sentiment of mine, as the line's moved ever so closer to even as the big day approaches.
I like the over in a heavyweight battle between the best teams in their respective conferences. With the Kansas City Chiefs securing their 3rd Lombardi Trophy since 2019.
Good luck to everyone on their final round of NFL bets for the season!
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@Choppinglines
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