Only one team can win the Super Bowl each season-- an inescapable fact in the league. You can go 19-0, lose that final game and completely flush all your work down the toilet. There's no consolation or participation prizes, just 31 sad losers and a sole, victorious franchise left standing.
Once again, our Baltimore Ravens are among those losers. And I, Ted Lutz, am among the saddest of fans countrywide. This felt like the year. The offense was diverse and dangerous, the defense absolutely stifling. Free agent signings were contributing, youthful talent was showing growth. Everything was clicking with the coaching and it translated beautifully onto the field.
Then the AFC Championship happened. The team came out flatter than Kyrie Irving's Earth, going 3 and out before allowing an 86-yard touchdown drive to the Chiefs. Lamar and the offense figured it out on the next drive, but it'd be the only time they managed to punch one into the end zone.
It was over. From going 13-4 and clinching the #1 seed, to just another statistic on Patrick Mahomes' GOAT resume. Not to sound ungrateful for the ride, but this season, with this team, was a failure. No other way to spin it.
Offense
While that introduction may have sounded, and felt, like a Doomsday scenario, the future with Lamar Jackson under center isn't any less enticing. If anything, this should light a fire under his ass to get back to this spot and finish the job.
He was outstanding during the regular season, with career highs for passing yards, QBR and completion percentage. While the downfield accuracy does still leave something to be desired, it was encouraging to see his willingness to take the checkdown and let his playmakers do the rest. Tom Brady made a career of it, making this a dangerous addition to Lamar's arsenal, on top of his unmatched ability to run. Really put some defenses in a bind.
We would've beaten Kansas City if he carried that playing style into the game. Holding the ball too long while searching for the deep shot took away scramble lanes and allowed defenders to quickly quell dump offs. I'm sure some of that was Steve Spagnuolo, but it was a foreign looking performance from our MVP. He'll be back.
-Gus Edwards was pretty good, but never seemed to fully gain the trust of the coaching staff, for whatever reason. As an impending free agent, doesn't feel like the team will be rushing to bring him back
-JK Dobbins also appears to be on the way out, never truly being able to achieve his massive potential
-Full of optimism toward Keaton Mitchell's upside, depending how quickly he can return from his torn ACL. The UDFA was incredibly explosive in limited action, leaving us wanting so much more. Justice Hill was surprisingly adequate filling the vacancy
-Promising rookie campaign from Zay Flowers that saw him post a 77/858/5 line-- adding 56 and a score on the ground. He was so sudden in his cuts, bursting from 0-100 after making defenders miss. Everything we hoped Hollywood would be and more, and it's only year one. Excited to see his progression
-Figuring out who'll be opposite of Flowers should be fairly high up the to do list this offseason. Odell Beckham Jr. was okay, but certainly didn't make the impact someone making $428k per catch should. He can walk. Bringing back Nelson Agholor for 20% of the price is much more appealing
-Mark Andrews was solid when he was available, showing a really efficient connection with Jackson (connected on 74% of targets). Missing 8 games, including the divisional round vs. Houston, wasn't ideal however. Man's a warrior though, managing to battle his way back for the AFC Championship
-The emergence of Isaiah Likely was a welcome gift after Mark went down week ten, carrying on the team's production from the tight end. Andrews having an out in his contract after this season may be something the Ravens look at to free up money for other guys
-Ronnie Stanley's contract will also be under examination. He's expensive, missed 4 games last year-- while not exactly playing world class when he did suit up-- and will be 30 by the next time he's on a football field. Not the combination you're looking for from your left tackle. Given Morgan Moses' up and down season on the opposite side, I wouldn't be surprised to see #79 back for one final run in 2024. Overhauling both tackles in the same offseason seems like a tall, pessimistic order
-Tyler Linderbaum is great. Patrick Mekari deserves a ton of love for being the Swiss Army knife that we've needed on the offensive line. John Simpson was a nice find, allowing us to overlook another midround whiff at interior lineman (Ben Cleveland). Kevin Zeitler is an impending free agent
-Listen for the name Andrew Vorhees this training camp. The tackle turned guard from USC was tremendous value pick for Baltimore last draft, trickling down to the pick 229 in the 7th after he tore his ACL at the scouting combine. Originally projected as a 3rd-4th round talent, Vorhees provides some upside and competition on the interior line
Defense
What a unit. Talent and surprising depth at all levels. Credit to Eric DeCosta for finding the glue guys between Justin Madubuike, Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton. DC Mike MacDonald deserves all the credit in the world too, but we'll get to that later.
This defense didn't allow a point in the second half of their abbreviated postseason run, battling up to the bitter end. With some key pieces set to hit the open market, plus the turnover in the coaching staff, continuity will be hard to maintain. Feels like a missed opportunity with a potentially historic group. Alas.
-Michael Pierce was pretty disruptive in the middle, pleasantly outperforming my expectations for him. Travis Jones seemed to learn a lot working alongside #58
-Justin Madubuike is going to get paid, and I hope it's somehow by the Ravens. After setting an NFL record for recording at least 1/2 a sack in 11 straight games, his market could never be higher. An encore performance would put him in elite company league-wide
-Jadaveon Clowney is somebody else I'd love to see the organization retain. The perennial free agent was a stalwart rushing the passer and stopping the run, fitting right in with the defensive philosophy. He's surely earned a raise
-The pass rush by committee was a pretty cool thing to see, especially given the overall productivity. Patrick Queen would be the guy one week, Odafe Oweh early on, Kyle Van Noy late, Brett Urban and Trenton Simpson too. Leading the league in sacks without a true alpha is impressive
-Roquan Smith, we've been waiting for you here in Baltimore.
-Brandon Stephens was awesome. He'd go toe to toe with whoever was opposite of him, imposing his physical play on the best in the game. Even when Marlon Humphrey was in the lineup, it seemed pretty apparent who the top dog was
-Speaking of Marlon, that contract's looking ugly right now
-Ronald Darby and Arthur Maulet were really above average fill ins for this secondary. Maulet in particular always seemed to be around the ball
-Kyle Hamilton is a revelation. 3 sacks, 4 interceptions, just generally flying all over the field. He's way too large to be as fast and fluid as he is, yet here we are. Absolute keeper that happened to fall into our laps two years ago. Give him a lifetime contract now, or less dramatically after next season when his rookie deal isn't as friendly
Coaching
Admittedly, I'm a John Harbaugh supporter-- bordering on apologist at times historically. I've long defended many an expressed concern from those opposite of me on that spectrum. But those very problems began to visibly come to a head this season. The lack of a true specialization, poor clock management, inconsistencies from half to half, questionable challenges. I'd heard it all, but now was starting to feel it.
The Chargers matchup week 12 was a prime example. Not once, but twice failing to challenge terrible spots for our ball carriers on third down, yet finding the courage to muster the red flag on a clear lateral from Keenan Allen to Austin Ekeler. That mismanagement, among numerous others in the game, was chalked up to "administrative issues", which isn't a good look when you are the administration.
In that particular game, those decisions didn't come back to haunt the Ravens, but that was due to elite level of play by the players on the field. Lamar Jackson will likely be the MVP, Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton are the top linebacker/safety duo in the league, and they're all surrounded by ample talent. Just like Harbaugh always has been. Would his coaching prowess be so highly looked upon otherwise?
We'll save that deep dive for another blog, maybe a pod, but long story short is this season felt like John was ill-prepared more often than he should've been and was bailed out by the quality of players he could field. When shit went wrong, like the debacle of a Kansas City offensive gameplan, he was far too willing to sit content as the ship went down, rather than put on his big boy pants and tell Todd Monken to fix shit. Another issue he's harbored in the past, a la Cam Cameron, Greg Roman, Steve Saunders...
And that's coming from a supporter! As Doc Ward said: Over the last decade, would you rather be the Rams or the Steelers? Harbaugh's record's currently aligning more with the latter.
A terrible finale left a bad taste on our tongues regarding Todd Monken, but he did have this offense humming for a good bit of the season. I do think Patrick Mahomes' consecutive touchdown drives to start the AFC Championship spooked him a bit, forcing him to play catchup with his play calling the entire night. It was unnecessary, confusing and completely unsuccessful from somebody who had been on some big time stages before.
But things were mostly good, as the Ravens finished 6th in total yards and 4th in scoring on the season, which is successful by any metric. Zay Flowers acclimated quickly, while Monken also showed he could scheme in Isaiah Likely, OBJ and Nelson Agholor. We got a sample of how explosive this group could be with Keaton Mitchell in the backfield, going to be wanting a whole plate of that come September.
Onto a somber note, Mike MacDonald, we hardly knew you. What he did to this defense was impeccable. Many look at the stars of the group and say, "how could they not have been this good?" But overlook the fact that their cornerback room consisted of cast offs for majority of the year. If you thought Brandon Stephens, Rock Ya-Sin, Arthur Maulet and Ronald Darby were going to be a top six set of cornerbacks during the preseason, I'd have asked what rock ya sniffin'.
But that's what MacDonald helped produce. 6th in total yards allowed, a league low 16.5 points allowed per game and a league leading 60 sacks. With Madubuike, Clowney, Odafe Oweh, Patrick Queen, Kyle Van Noy, among a bunch of other guys. I'm curious how many people nationally could tell you two people on the defensive line that just lead the NFL, probably not many.
Mike leaving for Seattle is a loss that's going to hurt, but we can't overlook the impact of the Anthony Weaver and Dennard Wilson departures. Two of Mac's top assistants are taking on promotions to defensive coordinator spots in Miami and Tennessee, respectively, leaving even more holes to be filled this offseason.
Excited for Zach Orr after being elevated to the DC position. Maintaining any type of continuity during this coaching exodus is crucial, plus he was able to learn under the best for a year. Here's to hoping he can build up a quality staff and keep on with the tradition of proud Baltimore defense.
Upcoming Free Agents
Ravens currently slated for free agency are: Odell Beckham Jr., Kevin Zeitler, Gus Edwards, Rock Ya-Sin, Nelson Agholor, Patrick Queen, Justin Madubuike, Jadaveon Clowney, Geno Stone, Tyler Huntley, Ronald Darby, Brett Urban, and JK Dobbins, among others
Retaining at least one of the Queen-MadDog-Clowney trio would be nice. Thinking the latter would be the most realistic, with the other two set for monster paydays from their first non-rookie contracts. Geno Stone can walk unless he takes a team-friendly deal. Baltimore has more pressing needs than a third safety.
OBJ can go too. He had his flashes, but just wasn't consistently involved enough to be worth the price tag. As mentioned above, would happily bring back Agholor for the right value, but that's about it on the offensive end. Zeitler was great, but he ain't getting any younger. Gus seemed to never gain the coaches favor and JK can't stay healthy. The hardest part of the business, parting ways with guys you've enjoyed cheering for.
Our approach to free agency is murky given our cap situation and internal negotiations, so much so that it's hard to even speculate right now. Derrick Henry or Mike Evans would be pipe dreams of astronomical levels; pleasant thoughts to dream about while we recover from that Championship round exit. Not holding my breath, or making any type of wish list until we figure out who's staying.
Concluding Thoughts
Definitely wasted a prime window this season. It's uncommon to have top five offensive, defensive and special teams units all come together at once-- opportunities that must be seized. Not our year though, back to the drawing board. Good luck holding your stomachs through the Super Bowl.
Free agency starts March 13th and we pick 30th in the draft April 25th. Get to work EDC.
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@Choppinglines
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