We. Are. Back. The sun's out a little longer, pitchers and catchers are beginning to report, the remaining free agents are starting to get scooped up. Baseball is right around the corner.
We're going to be bringing you our divisional previews over the next 6 weeks leading up to the start of the regular season and figured there'd be no better way than starting with the AL East. What a better way too, then with the reigning divisional champions, our hometown...
Baltimore Orioles
What a ride last season was. If you followed the team, you knew that there were good things coming. The extent of which however, was a true treat, fueling tons of optimism for this 2024 campaign.
Where to start. Reigning AL Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson will be holding down somewhere on the left side of the infield will be a sight to see. At just 22 years of age, he's got a mountain of potential in front of him. Jorge Mateo and Ramon Urias appear to be platooning either shortstop or third-- until Jackson Holliday is ready that is.
Behind the plate, Adley Rutschman is one of the more productive catchers you'll come across, also with a ton of room to grow. Kid commands a great game and will have a staff to do it with. Will be fun to see if Ryan O'Hearn can carry over his magical run from 2023. Last year's spring training addition ended up posting a .289/14/60 line at the dish, regularly providing a spark for the team.
Baltimore's outfield may not boast the big names, but there's few better trios in the league. Austin Hays and Anthony Santander are two cannons posted in the corners of the outfield, while each providing some at the dish. Cedric Mullins doesn't have the arm that either of those guys do, but he's got the range to cover all the space in between. Former #2 pick Heston Kjerstad seems like he has some work, with the potential to develop into a powerful hitter.
Quite possibly the best rotation the Orioles have ever had, at least in my lifetime. Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, John Means and Dean Kremer. A mix of veteran talent and up and coming stars. Few pitchers in the AL shined brighter than Kyle Bradish a season ago, while G-Rod surely and steadily improved after a brief demotion divided his rookie campaign. No reason to think this can't be a top unit.
A few more questions in the bullpen, with Felix Bautista unlikely to return from Tommy John surgery at any point. Craig Kimbrel is a solid replacement, but King Felix set the closer bar high for this team. We'll see if the 35 year old can match. Yennier Cano seems poised for the set up role, looking for an encore to his 2023 All-Star season.
Boston Red Sox
There was a good bit of hype surrounding Boston going into the 2023 season; hype that I never understood. The roster seemed a bit hodge-podge, with Alex Cora jamming semi-ready prospects into the lineup with their few talented skill players. They went 78-84, so it could've been much worse, but they never really passed the eye test.
This year appears to have more of a youthful approach to it, one that's been having success in some pockets of the league. Young guys like Triston Casas, Enmanuel Valdez and recently acquired Vaughn Grissom will have bountiful reps to show that they belong on the big stage. 27-year old Connor Wong's going to have minimal competition at catcher too, something the team hopes will help him thrive in his second full season. Rafael Devers is the stalwart of the infield.
Matasaka Yoshida is a nice piece in the outfield, fresh off an impressive rookie season in the MLB. Tyler O'Neill, Jarren Duran and Bobby Dalbec make up the rest of the bunch, with more potential than production thus far in their careers.
Trading Chris Sale, and getting anything of value in return, felt like the right move by the BoSox. Replacing him with Lucas Giolito on the other hand, felt like a bit of a desperate overpay. But they needed an arm, and Giolito has as high a ceiling as any viable free agent pitcher, so it's understandable. Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford should be respectable, while Tanner Houck continues to try and live up to his early hype.
Kenley Jansen will finish up his contract on the back end of this bullpen, after posting an above average 3.63 ERA and 29 saves during his first go round with the team. While far from a career year for Jansen, it was decent given the circumstances. He's currently dealing with a lat injury that may limit his Spring Training, opening the door for Chris Martin or Nick Pivetta to hold down the ninth inning-- at least short term.
New York Yankees
Like many an offseason, national pundits are going to gush over the Yankees player acquisitions. Alex Verdugo, Juan Soto and Marcus Stroman are certainly big names to add to any roster, but are they going to be able to pull the Pinstripes out of 4th place?
The infield doesn't inspire a ton of confidence in that push. Anthony Rizzo and DJ LeMahieu are pretty washed. Anthony Volpe is young and talented, but has rarely flashed early on in his career. Gleyber Torres is coming off his best season since 2019, posting a .273/25/68 line. It'd help this team a ton if he could run those numbers back.
As mentioned in the beginning of this section, the Bombers' outfield was completely revamped. Aaron Judge is obviously still MVP-caliber, but surrounding him with Verdugo and Soto will only protect the slugger in the lineup, while adding runners to drive in. I wouldn't be surprised if the reality is a little underwhelming compared to the expectation, but this'll be a potent trio. And if they get Jasson Dominguez back in the mix at any point...look out.
On paper, this is a pretty strong starting rotation, anchored by reigning Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole. Stroman and Nestor Cortes are useful arms, as well as Carlos Rodon-- although I think he was a massive overpay. We'll see what type of form he enters the season in after undergoing elbow surgery last summer. Also feels like this is Clarke Schmidt's last opportunity to start before being relegated to long duty, at least with the depth this team has.
New York's pen has a few workable options. Losing Michael King to the Padres wasn't ideal, but Clay Holmes and Ian Hamilton are worthy hurlers on the back end of these games. Albert Abreu is a real wildcard too, providing some upside after seemingly being phased out as a starting option.
Tampa Bay Rays
Not sure there was a much worse situation than Tampa Bay's last season. They went from a unanimous top team in baseball into a miniature free fall, ultimately resulting in a hapless playoff exit and their star shortstop on the administrative leave list while under investigation for trafficking sex from a minor. Not enviable.
Needless to say, the hole Wander Franco left at shortstop is going to be a nearly impossible one to fill. It'll be up to Taylor Walls, Osleivis Basabe and one of our favorite rookies Junior Caminero to pick up the slack-- a tall order, needless to say. Brandon Lowe will be your regular at second, while Yandy Diaz and Isaac Paredes hold down the corners. A lot of pop between those two.
Randy Arozarena is the mainstay in the outfield. The Rays' legend stroked a modest .254 last year while playing in all but 11 games. Josh Lowe-- no relation to Brandon-- will be on the right side, looking to prove his breakout 2023 wasn't a fluke. Producing anywhere near his .292/20/83 line will be welcome offense for this team. Jose Siri will be your everyday patrol in center.
The absence of Shane McClanahan is a big blow to this staff. Tampa's ace was in the midst of a Cy Young season before undergoing Tommy John surgery last August. It'd be very surprising to see him at any point in 2024. So it'll be up to Zach Eflin to hold down the role, something he seems capable of doing after career bests in ERA, WHIP and K/BB ratio. Trade deadline acquisition Aaron Civale is an excellent #2, with upside to boot.
Then some wild cards. Ryan Pepiot is an exciting, young arm. Taj Bradley has some of the nastiest stuff you'll find across the league. And Shane Baz throws gaz. Plus this is the Rays, when don't they manage to find starting pitching?
Nothing too formidable in the bullpen. Pete Fairbanks is a fine closer, but this was a bit of a committee for much of 2023. I do always like to point out middle reliever Shawn Armstrong too. He was terrible for Baltimore, before traveling south down 95 to actually learn how to pitch. His 1.38 ERA over 52 innings is evidence to that.
Toronto Blue Jays
Wrapping up the division with arguably my least favorite team of the bunch. Toronto reminds me a lot of the Cincinnati Bengals: get a few good players, have some regular season success and they act like they're the best team in the fucking country. Simply put: obnoxious.
But they've got some guys to be excited over. Vlad Jr. can be a monster at the plate, but unfortunately seems to lack the drive (or fitness) to excel for an entire season. Cavan Biggio and Bo Bichette form the middle of the infield, a respectable tandem that maintains the Blue Jays' quality bloodlines. Justin Turner was a recent signing as well to hold down the hot corner, a sure upgrade over Isiah Kiner-Falefa.
Daulton Varsho and George Springer are two solid pieces in corners of the outfield. They're each good for 20+ dingers a season with competent defense. Kevin Kiermeier provides a good bit of range in center, though he's clearly the weak link of the group offensively.
Like the aforementioned Shawn Armstrong, Kevin Gausman also has vehemently thrived after moving on from Baltimore-- transforming from a underachieving, powdered donut eating righty to a legitimate Cy Young candidate. He was impeccable last season, with a 3.16 ERA and 11.5 K/9. No reason to think he can't replicate similar numbers. Jose Berrios and Chris Bassitt are as good of a 2-3 as you'll find, combining for 370 strikeouts a year ago, while Yusei Kikuchi seems to be discovering his upside. If Alek Manoah could somehow rediscover his form-- and fitness-- then this would be an elite unit.
The bullpen is probably Toronto's weakest point, headlined by closer Jordan Romano. He, Tim Mayza and Erik Swanson are the most reliable arms in the group, with quality tailing off relatively quickly from there. If their quality starters can eat 6-7 innings a game though, the lack of depth will be disguisable.
Bold Predictions
-Corbin Burnes will win the AL Cy Young
-Jackson Holliday will be on the Orioles' roster by the trade deadline
-Masataka Yoshida will follow up a strong rookie campaign by batting over .300
-Lucas Giolito will finish with an ERA over 5.00
-Aaron Judge will set a career high for RBI. He'd need 132+ to do it
-Juan Soto's going to set a personal record for home runs too, clearing 40 with some help of that short porch in right. However, I also think he'll post his worst BB/PA since his rookie year
-Junior Caminero will be the everyday shortstop in Tampa by season's end
-Taj Bradley's K/9 ratio will be 12+
-Vlad Jr.'s attitude wears on Toronto, causing them to consider moving him at the deadline
-Daulton Varsho will lead the team in home runs
Projected Final Standings
1st. Orioles
2nd. Yankees
3rd. Blue Jays
4th. Rays
5th. Red Sox
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@Choppinglines
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