Going from the AL East to the Central is a pretty substantial drop off in terms of excitement, but we've got to cover every division, so here we go. With less interdivision games on the schedule, there could legitimately be no team to finish over .500 here, though that's pretty hard to do. Something to keep an eye on though, surely.
To ChiTown we go to...
Chicago White Sox
...one of the more disappointing compilations of talent in all of Major League Baseball. So much hype around so many of these prospects, yet for whatever reason, the on-field product has never managed to follow.
Yoan Moncada holds down the hot corner, but really hasn't come close to achieving the potential it looked like he had. Andrew Vaughn took a small step in the right direction, but his K/BB ratio of nearly 4/1 isn't a winning statistic. Nicky Lopez and Paul DeJong up the middle too...forgive my lack of enthusiasm.
The outfield is a little better, not that the bar's too high. Luis Robert has serious, serious power, putting out 38 home runs in 2023. Andrew Benintendi is a decent player, but nothing to write home about. And the Gavin Sheets/Oscar Colas platoon in right...woof. Don't expect the White Sox to be putting up many runs.
Outside of Dylan Cease, the rotation doesn't look substantially stronger. Michael Kopech was disastrous a year ago after balling out during 2021 and 2022. The ChiSox faithful are hoping he can rediscover his previous form, which isn't the world's most outrageous pipe dream for what it's worth. Michael Soroka is an interesting wild card as well, but his injury woes are far too lengthy to feel confident in. Touki Toussaint isn't much more than an inning eater.
This was a bullpen by committee last season, which'll likely be the case this go round. Garrett Crochet probably has the highest ceiling of the group and seems to be in line to get the first crack at closing. Then a bunch of unknowns and journeymen: Tanner Banks, Sammy Peralta and John Brebbia, among others.
At least they got Tony La Russa out of the dugout.
Cleveland Guardians
Onto a slightly better Guardians team. Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor are two productive pieces on the infield corners, coming off campaigns where they combined for 41 home runs and 177 RBI. They'll need to at least match those numbers if they want to compete for the divisional crown. Andres Gimenez is a decent piece at second, but the trio of Brayan Rocchio/Gabriel Arias/Jose Tena isn't one you want competing for the shortstop position.
There'll be some continuity in the outfield, to try and spin things positively. Unfortunately, Steven Kwan, Myles Straw, Will Brennan and Gabriel Arias combined for a paltry 21 home runs and 150 RBI over 1,847 at bats. Just a void of production. They're definitely hoping Ramon Laureano, a trade deadline acquisition, can infuse some pop.
Cleveland has some quality starters though, that's for sure. Tanner Bibee will be looking to repeat a masterful rookie stint where he went 10-4 with a 2.98 ERA in 25 starts. At the ripe age of 24, he's a real building block for this franchise. Shane Bieber had a slightly down year, finishing with a 3.80 ERA-- indicative of just how high his ceiling is. Gavin Williams and Logan Allen are as steady as they come, while Triston McKenzie is a bit more volatile. But when he's clicking, it's hard to touch.
Emmanuel Clase is an awesome young closer, a real flamethrower with room to grow yet. The 25-year old recorded a save in 44 of their 76 wins, a 57.9% clip. Trevor Stephan and Sam Hentges are decent relief guys, Nick Sandlin too, but a pretty average pen outside of Clase. If this team competes for the division, it'll be because the arms delivered.
Detroit Tigers
Motoring up to Detroit for a look at the Tigers, a real wildcard within the division. Former #1 pick Spencer Torkelson has more than had his issues in the contact department, but his power's been as advertised after cranking 31 home runs in his second season. If he can get that average up, his numbers should balloon relatively quickly. The freshly extended Colt Keith has the makings of a young star at second and should pair nicely up the middle with Javier Baez. Third base will be much more of a question mark however, with Zack McKinstry on the inside track for the job.
Big, big fan of Riley Greene, but a leg injury cut interrupted a strong start to his sophomore campaign before an elbow injury ultimately ended it. All went well with Tommy John surgery, and he should be good to go come Opening Day, but it's a pessimistic trend for one of the brighter prospects in the game. Matt Vierling and Kerry Carpenter will be regulars in the corners of the outfield, with Mark Canha making the occasional appearance as well. Modest expectations for the those three, at best.
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| Jay Biggerstaff/ USA Today |
Detroit's starting pitching is an intriguing mix of youth and veteran talent. Kenta Maeda is competent at worst and above average at best, plus he knows the division well. A very interesting signing last November. Jack Flaherty is the other veteran and, as an Orioles fan, it's safe to say he's pretty ho-hum. Matt Manning, Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson are three up and comers with a ton of potential. If Skubal can stay healthy, and their development as a whole holds steady, then this could become a potent middle of the rotation. Casey Mize is working back to full strength too, which would add another young gun to AJ Hinch's holster.
Alex Lange was the primary ninth inning man last year, saving 26/32 opportunities, but Jason Foley also got some looks in the closing role. Throw in the Andrew Chafin pick up and this could be a little competition next month! Will Vest and Tyler Holton also showed well in 2023, rounding this relief unit into a deep yet unspectacular one. Much worse situations out there though.
Kansas City Royals
The big story out of Kansas City this offseason was the astronomical contract they awarded to their young star Bobby Witt Jr. 11-years for $288 million dollars, from a notoriously small market franchise. Perhaps an indicator of change for the future?
That's what the Royals' faithful are going to have to pin their hopes on, because this season ain't it. Outside of Witt, it's hard to get excited about much on this team. Salvador Perez is an all-timer, but we've already seen his production begin to decline, and he's not getting any younger. Maikel Garcia's alright? Michael Massey and Adam Frazier are who they are at second. Maybe Nick Loftin can bring a spark for his full rookie season? Just not a group to get amped up over.
Possibly less optimism regarding the outfield situation. Hunter Renfroe was their marquee addition this offseason, fresh off a .233/20/60 campaign in Cincy. Not exactly a needle mover for any organization. Then you have Drew Waters, MJ Melendez and Dairon Blanco rounding out the rest of KC's depth. Like the infield, not a ton to be excited for here.
On paper, the trio of Brady Singer, Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo isn't the least fortunate in the league. But Singer regressed last year, Wacha's been a journeyman for half a decade and Lugo is 34-- leaving as much upside as downside from the three. That leaves Jordan Lyles, Daniel Lynch, and/or Kris Bubic to fill out the rotation. Woof.
And if the starters weren't bad enough, the bullpen is possibly the worst in baseball. Will Smith was signed to a one year deal in December and is likely to be named Opening Day closer. While he's not outstanding, he does improve the group as a whole. 6'7" rookie James McArthur showed some promise in a short stint during 2023 and could be quick to usurp that role. Then you've got Carlos Hernandez and his 5.17 career ERA, Austin Cox, John Schreiber-- not the most stable of ground to find yourself on.
Minnesota Twins
Onto the reigning AL Central champions, the Twinkies of Minnesota. The divisional victory wasn't without a bit of reluctance however, as they had more than their share of struggles throughout the season-- particularly on offense.
In 2023, the Twins batted .243 and struck more than anyone else. They didn't get on base often and had many unproductive at bats. However, they did hit the 3rd most home runs in the league, which was vital to the success they did have.
Carlos Santana should help with the long ball, signing just two weeks ago for 1-year, $5.5 million. Carlos Correa rediscovering his contact tool would help a ton with the poor average. The expensive shortstop ripped a career low .230 last season, drawing no shortage of ire from the fans. Royce Lewis is really good, he's just always hurt. And Edouard Julien is a solid second baseman with some pop, curious to see if he'll cede any play to former top pick Austin Martin. Not holding my breath.
Byron Buxton has, unfortunately, fallen far short of his potential thus far in his career. He's a physical specimen with insane power that's sadly underachieved due to injury and poor contact. Maybe this'll be the year it all clicks? Max Kepler is decent in right, while Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach battle it out for reps in left.
Losing Luis Arraez to the Marlins was tough for Minnesota, but the return Pablo Lopez has provided has eased things, with the 27-year old ace went 11-8 in his first stint up in St. Paul, with a 3.66 ERA and 11 K/9. They'll need him to be even better this go round with his right hand man Sonny Gray heading to St. Louis. Bailey Ober has some upside and Joe Ryan will eat up some innings at a minimum, but the losses of Gray and Maeda are going to be felt. Maybe Simeon Woods-Richardson's best and final chance at securing a starting role.
Jhoan Duran enters his second full season as the ninth inning man for the Twins. The 26-year old wasn't perfect, as evidenced by his 5 blown saves on 32 chances, but he clearly is cut for the part-- just a matter of fine tuning some things. Brock Stewart is an elite set up man, while Griffin Jax and Caleb Thielbar are more than respectable in their own right. Like Cleveland, if this team wins the Central, it'll be due to their pitching success.
Bold Predictions
-Dylan Cease isn't on the White Sox in August
-Andrew Vaughn knocks 30+ home runs, but doesn't do much to improve contact numbers
-Emmanuel Clase records 40+ saves again, but lowers his ERA under 3.00
-Tanner Bibee wins 15 or more games
-Riley Greene rips 200+ hits
-Tarik Skubal stays healthy for majority of the season and records over 160 strikeouts
-Bobby Witt hits for at least .290/35/100 with 50+ stolen bases, improving in all 4 categories
-James McArthur will be the Royals' closer by the end of the year
-Carlos Correa clears 25 home runs, but struggles to maintain an average over .250
-Bailey Ober leads the Twins in wins
Predicted Final Standings
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Cleveland Guardians
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Chicago White Sox
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@Choppinglines
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