Always sad to see the NFL season end, but it does provide us with some time to look back on our preseason predictions to check how good of a read we had on things. As expected, I really nailed some of these guesses, but also narrowly missed a couple of others (Jaguars...)
The line-making in Las Vegas is really something to behold...a science as well as an art.
Let's see how things went:
Hot Takes
I wrote up a hot take for every team approximately a year ago. Some aged like wine, and others like milk. Makes for some interesting reflection.
The coldest take had to have been Kevin Stefanski getting fired midseason. While I correctly predicted Deshaun Watson's struggles, I didn't give credit to Cleveland's head coach's ability to right the ship. He was rightfully awarded the Coach of the Year after leading the team to an 11-5 record with 5 different starting quarterbacks.
Picking the Buccaneers to finish in the basement of the NFC South also proved to be the opposite of correct, as evidenced by their divisional title. Then there was my belief that the Jets could produce two 1,000 yard receivers, which was doomed about 30 seconds into the season. Garrett Wilson just managed to squeak over the milestone with 1,042.
But a lot of takes ended up being spot on! Brandon Staley was fired midseason, a time bomb to those following the sorry ass Chargers. The Ravens leading receiver wasn't on the roster until two months after the article, as predicted, and Mac Jones did-- in fact-- get benched for Bailey Zappe. At multiple points. Not the boldest of takes here, but you've still got to make your layups.
To toot the ol' horn a little longer, guessing the Giants to not have a single 1,000 yard receiver or rusher was a nice hit. Saquon got closest in that pathetic offense with 962 on the ground.
Also nailed Sam Howell starting the entire 2023 season, albeit with an amendment that he was benched twice for Jacoby Brissett. Tons of question marks in Washington this offseason.
Last but not least, calling the Texans to secure a wild card spot didn't quite do them justice! After knocking their first round out of the park, Houston jumped from a three win team to champions of the AFC South, with a bright future ahead at that.
Records
As far as predicting over/unders for team records, I went just 14-18-- a slight downgrade from my 15-17 mark a year ago. A couple late collapses (Jaguars...) helped to drag down that number some, but such is the life of gambling.
Nailed the exacta on the Titans and Chiefs total win predictions, of 6 and 12, respectively. Always nice to hang the ole hat on. 2 out of 32, probably about as good as one could hope for-- same amount from last year.
As far as my playoff guesses went, a 50% hit rate isn't exactly what we were looking for! Detroit securing the #2 seed in the NFC was a gratifying hit, while the Chiefs, Ravens, Bills, Eagles, Cowboys and Niners rounded out my correct calls to make the field. The Jets, Bengals, Jaguars, Broncos, Seahawks, Falcons and Vikings missing out on the action were the misses-- a couple of which were aided by some major injuries. Such is life in the NFL.
However, neither the Eagles nor Ravens made the Super Bowl as predicted-- although Baltimore got pretty damn close... that loss stings far worse than this laundry list of misses. Better years ahead!
Props
Onto brighter topics. I laid out 7 prop bets during the preseason and cashed 4 of them! Over the 50% milestone, albeit barely. But we'll take it.
Justin Herbert was thoroughly disappointing, as were the Chargers in general. He fell way short of his touchdown line of 30.5, mustering just 20 in 13 games played. Trevor Lawrence (and the Jaguars...) melted late, prompting him to miss his mark of 4050.5 by just 34 passing yards. A missed game and playing through some injuries late really set him, and the team, back. AJ Dillon was the third and final close miss, falling 12 yards short of his projected 625.5 rushing yards. He capped off a disappointing season by posting just 2.8 YPC in his final two games before missing week 18. Gross.
Things got better though! Isiah Pacheco crushed his over/under of 775.5 with 935 overall. He was a dog for a Kansas City offense that needed all the help they could get. Elijah Moore wasn't consistent, but he topped his total of 575.5 by 65 yards. Would imagine a couple of games with DTR and PJ Walker under center didn't do him any favors.
Receivers Chris Olave and Mike Evans hit their overs for me. I had Olave topping 1025.5 receiving yards, which he narrowly pulled off, despite Derek Carr's general level of suck. Evans over/under for receptions was set at a modest 60.5, which he topped in week 15. As much of a no doubter as you could ask for there.
That's it for my coverage from the 2023-'24 NFL season, just holding myself accountable for my picks, with more shitty ones than not! Share if you had any similar takes, for better or worse, and keep a look out for some hot takes and scouting reports for the upcoming draft!
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@Choppinglines
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