Into the wildcard weekend we go, and as with every season, we've got some surprising teams sneaking in. Nobody saw the Steelers going 10-7, or the Browns improving after the loss of Deshaun Watson. Throw in the Bills going from 6-6 to the 2 seed and the AFC alone has already provided plenty of wild for this round.
We'll be seeing their 3 games first before the NFC slate, but let's talk about all 6 matchups:
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at Houston Texans
Welcome to the big show CJ Stroud. The future Offensive Rookie of the Year has already notched an unlikely divisional championship in his first stint in the league, now he gets to lead the Texans in a home playoff game against the Browns. What a story it's been.
Tricky matchup though for his first postseason action though. Cleveland's vaunted defense has given teams fits all year and seem poised to again after resting majority of their starters last week. Denzel Ward vs. Nico Collins should give us some fun battles on the outside, while JOK and Dalton Schultz will matchup over the middle of the field. Excellent litmus test for the young QB.
On the flip side, Joe Flacco's done this playoff song and dance, probably for longer than CJ Stroud's been playing football. There may not be a hotter quarterback in the league right now, which is a scary proposition given their elite defensive unit. Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore's return will be appreciated by the former Super Bowl MVP, boosting his arsenal of pass catchers back to full strength. Curious to see how Derek Stingley Jr. and the Houston secondary handle them.
There may not be a team in the league with a more optimistic forecast than the Texans, but this is a brutal way for Stroud to kick off his postseason experience. Cleveland's roster is built for winning games like this and they'll get it done here.
Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)
From a 70 degree game in Miami to a trip to Arrowhead in negative weather...what a twist of fates last week's loss bestowed upon the Dolphins. And not a positive one.
A key injury to monitor on the offensive side of the ball is Jaylen Waddle. He's sat out the last two weeks, which has certainly played a role in the team only averaging 16.5 points per game over the stretch. As good as Tua and Tyreek's connection is, it's evident that the quarterback needs at least one other viable target to produce. Durham Smythe and Cedrick Wilson Jr. don't seem to be those guys.
Getting Raheem Mostert back from a knee injury would go a long way too. He's been a workhorse for Miami this season and would be especially useful in the frigid conditions. It could also afford Devon Achane some extra work as a pass catcher, adding another speedy weapon for Tagovailoa.
Do we dare bet against Patrick Mahomes? At home no less? The Chiefs have only marginally looked better than the Dolphins, but that's a pretty low bar. Isiah Pacheco should be busy all evening, as should whoever splits out wide to the right. Jalen Ramsey's got the left locked down, but if Xavien Howard doesn't play, then Mahomes shouldn't even have to look that direction.
It's impossible to trust Tua right now. Throw in the elements, their major injuries on defense plus morale I'd imagine isn't too high, and it's a perfect storm of misfortune for Miami. Gotta roll with Kansas City here, really like the under too-- currently set at 44.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-10.5)
The biggest mismatch of the weekend, on paper anyway. Will Buffalo live up to the line?
Pittsburgh + the points would be way more appealing with a healthy TJ Watt. He suffered an MCL sprain in their recent win over Baltimore that'll sideline him for at least this week; a huge blow to their defense. Will Mason Rudolph be able to continue his magic? He hasn't always shined per the eye test, but multiple games with over 400 yards and 30 points is uncharted waters for the Steelers. The Bills' defense is well below 100% in their own right, creating a few exploitable matchups for their talented skill players.
Josh Allen is the X factor here though. When he's on, he's as electric as any quarterback in the league-- a massive arm, dual-threat ability and postseason experience. Problem is, he can go from fully on to disaster mode in a matter of seconds, as he regularly displayed last Sunday night. He did get Stefon Diggs back involved though, which is a big positive for this offense that they need to repeat.
Whether Buffalo can get James Cook going will be another key to their victory. Pittsburgh's run defense isn't good, which should give Cook a chance to not only leave his mark on this game, but possibly take it over. We'll see what type of game flow OC Joe Brady ends up rolling with.
There's absolutely no reason the Bills should lose this game. But against underdog Tomlin, with a banged up front seven and a mistake-prone quarterback, an upset (or at least cover) is well within the realm of possibility. But Buffalo, in a statement victory. Back to reality Mason.
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)
A classic matchup to kick off the NFC wildcard slate here, with Green Bay traveling south to Dallas for their wildcard matchup. 16 game regular season win streak at home for the Cowboys, which won't be broke here no matter what, but obviously worth noting.
Dak Prescott especially. He threw 22 touchdowns compared to just 3 interceptions while in Jerry World. On the road, those splits get closer, with a 14:6 ratio. Securing the #2 seed was tremendous for this team. The Packers are tougher against the pass than they are against the run, but Prescott shouldn't have much trouble finding #88 out there.
But his counterpart Jordan Love hasn't had a season to shake a stick at. It started slow for Aaron Rodgers' successor, but he finished very strong, leading the Packers to wins in their final three games and six of their last eight. His 32 passing touchdowns were good for second in the league, despite having a young and oft-injured receiving core. Will the lights be too bright for the inexperienced group?
I want to be savvy and pick Green Bay outright, but it's just not happening in Dallas. The over's very much in play too, should be a fun one.
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3.5)
Probably the best game of wildcard weekend. It'll get billed as Matthew Stafford's return to Motor City, but Jared Goff's revenge cannot be overlooked either. The Rams cast the former Super Bowl contender off with no second thoughts once Detroit made it public they were shopping their longtime QB-- a decision that ultimately did pay off for LA.
So who gets the last laugh? Goff may have to venture into this without his star rookie tight end Sam LaPorta, who injured his knee in week 18. The prognosis was much brighter than anticipated, but it still is unlikely that he'll make an appearance here. That means it'll be Amon Ra St. Brown getting peppered with looks all evening, a task he's more than up to.
The Rams run defense is one of their strengths-- no surprise with Aaron Donald in the middle. They'll have their hands full though against the Jahmyr Gibbs/David Montgomery pair. If the Lions can establish the run and open up the play action, it could spell trouble for LA.
But Matthew Stafford knows trouble, as evidenced by years of play for some terrible Detroit teams. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are a dynamic duo that should feast on a subpar secondary, although Chauncey Gardner-Johnson's return could help with things. Kyren Williams is a monster too and will need to be once again to have success against a sneaky stingy front seven.
Love the over in this Sunday nighter...and I think I'm going to take the Rams also! It just seems like a good matchup across the board for them. Certainly wouldn't mind being wrong however.
Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Really unsure why they put a Monday night game in the playoffs, but here we are, staring down a pretty unappetizing battle at that.
Baker Mayfield hurt his ankle during their division clinching win over Carolina, looking and playing less than 100% after the fact. Shades of Cleveland-Baker, playing through the pain-- along with the crappy performance. His mobility is something to key in on early, because the Eagles secondary is trash. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are going to get open almost at will, they've just got to get him the ball.
Philadelphia could've been on bye here, but they decided to melt to the tune of a 1-5 finish, landing them in the top wildcard spot. Now Jalen Hurts has a broken finger on his throwing hand and AJ Brown is out with an injured knee, accelerating the death spiral. Not anticipating the passing game to look supremely functional.
That could be a problem too, with the Bucs boasting a top five run stopping unit. The Eagles hate committing to the run with D'Andre Swift for whatever reason, a strategy that may not be very effective this week anyway. Wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of Hurts from the RPO.
If Baker's ankle wasn't hurt, I'd be hammering Tampa Bay, but they really flopped last week in Carolina. The under is my favorite play here, which you can take with a grain of salt given my record on the total points. I'll take the Buccaneers to cover too.
Records on the season:
141-129 ATS
164-106 SU
131-139 O/U
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, clearly, just my opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
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