It's here. The final week of the NFL regular season. We've known it was coming, but that doesn't make it's arrival any less depressing. One more sixteen game slate for us fans-- some better than others-- but that's any week. Let's embrace it all.
Not doing any fantasy advice since most leagues have wrapped up. I've never understood why some people choose to play the whole 18 weeks through, seems like there's guaranteed to be some personnel issues for the championship round. Can you imagine riding Lamar Jackson to the ship, only to have him benched for Tyler Huntley in a meaningless game for the Ravens? Not an appealing concept!
Excuse my digression, we'll get back to things. Speaking of those Ravens though...
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) at Baltimore Ravens (Saturday 1/6)
Rest up Baltimore, y'all have earned this stretch of time to relax. The main goal Saturday is to get the few starters who do play through 60 minutes injury-free. A Tyler Huntley revenge win would be fun as well, after the backup fell short against Pittsburgh late last season.
The Steelers, on the other hand, have it all on the line. A win would greatly improve their once scant postseason odds, something that should be absolutely possible here. Mason Rudolph's played well over the last two weeks, completely revamping an offense that had been one of the worst so far this decade. Weird how getting the ball to your top receiver can bare positive results! Najee Harris has been having an impressive stretch as well, adding some balance to this group.
Feels like a classic rivalry matchup, even with most of Baltimore's starters sitting. Regardless, they'd love nothing more than to spoil the Steelers year on the way to the bye week. Something I just don't think will happen. Pittsburgh wins, Ravens cover and the under. Maybe like 19-16?
Houston Texans (-1.5) at Indianapolis Colts (Saturday 1/6)
Win or go home! A high stakes tussle between two AFC South foes, with the right to play next week as prize. The fact that their wildcard game could be at home too, with a Jaguars loss Sunday, is even more motivation for these two organizations.
The Texans were thrilled that CJ Stroud cleared concussion protocol in time for their date with Tennessee last week. They didn't ask their quarterback to do much, but with Ryan Tannehill opposite of him, there was no need. Indy's defense isn't the sharpest overall, so this could be an exclamation point on his Rookie of the Year campaign.
Devin Singletary will be a big part of the game plan too. The Buffalo cast off has shined since taking over as lead back, averaging 4.8 yards a carry since the beginning of December. The Colts front seven is among the most generous to opposing running backs, so expect a bunch of volume for Singletary.
Shane Steichen's had an impeccable inaugural campaign as Indianapolis' head coach-- overcoming constant QB shuffling and an overall average roster to have his team contending for the postseason. He just needs one more win to seal the deal.
As long as the game script permits, Jonathan Taylor's going to get a ton of work, as keeping the ball away from a potent Texans' offense will be key. Michael Pittman Jr. vs. Derek Stingley Jr. will provide entertainment all evening too. Leaning towards MPJ in that matchup, but it'll depend on how well Gardner Minshew's throwing the ball.
Figures as soon as I stop believing in the Colts, they got back on track over the Raiders. Not a confidence instilling win though, by any means, certainly when compared to what the Texans did to Tennessee. Let me get Houston to seal the deal and punch their ticket to the dance.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5)
The Browns are a crazy story, the first team to make the playoffs in a year where they've started 4 different quarterbacks. They saved their best for last, as Joe Flacco's gone nuclear in the month since he returned. Not a single person on Earth saw this coming.
But we won't see Flacco or any Cleveland starters this Sunday, as they're locked in to the #5 seed in the AFC. So we'll get to see Dorian Thompson-Robinson again I suppose, which could make for a real duck-and-chuck fest with Jake Browning. Should be some wonky quarterback play.
Always hard to get a read on games like this. Are we going to see a motivated bunch of backups for Cleveland, trying to get some good film for a new contract? Has Cincy packed it in for the season, or does Ja'Marr Chase want to talk some shit and pad a few stats on the way out? For this AFC North battle, I'm leaning toward the latter. Bengals wrap up their year with a win.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-3.5)
Poor Lions, this game should've had implications for #1 in the NFC. Instead, they'll see if they can miraculously jockey above Dallas for the second overall seed, dodging Matthew Stafford in round one. With the Cowboys facing the Commanders, I wouldn't hold my breath.
Curious if we'll see Detroit rest their starters at any point, regardless of the score. They're pretty healthy overall right now and would be devastated to lose a key player in what'll likely amount to being a pointless game. But that doesn't seem like Dan Campbell's style-- the man goes for the throat, consequence be damned.
Defeating the Vikings isn't an easy task though, despite their unenviable quarterback. Ty Chandler has emerged as an above average running back, they've got a strong defense and some of the best receivers in the league. Unless it's Jaren Hall under center, it won't be a layup for the Lions.
Thinking I like the over between these two teams, currently sitting at 45.5. Detroit should win and cover too, but definitely some weariness on if their starters will play all 60 minutes.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) at Tennessee Titans
For my futures bets...I need the Jaguars to pull this off. It doesn't feel like I'm asking a lot, but outside of the beatdown they laid on Carolina last Sunday, they've been pathetic. With the division on the line though, I'd like to think they get up for this road battle.
Trevor Lawrence is still the question mark of the weekend for Jacksonville, currently questionable with a shoulder injury (among a plethora of other ailments). The former #1 pick is surely going to do everything in his power to be able to play, but Doug Pederson would be wise to really consider CJ Beathard if Lawrence is any less than 100%. The career backup was pretty efficient in their dismantling of the Panthers.
If the Jags can get Travis Etienne going, it'd go a long way to pulling out the dub. He cleared the century mark for the first time in a while last week and looked good doing it. Tennessee offers a much stiffer front seven, but the volume should be there.
The Titans are also dealing with uncertainty at quarterback, with Will Levis dealing with an ankle injury that forced him out of last week's action early. Given how promising the rookie has looked, it wouldn't be surprising for the organization to sit him this week and preserve his health going into the offseason. But Mike Vrabel likes to win, so you never know.
If Levis can't play, we'll have one more Ryan Tannehill start in Tennessee to suffer through. Gotta feel bad for Derrick Henry having to go out like that, but perhaps he could provide the necessary spark to play spoiler this weekend.
Boy, do I hope not. But I'm not confident in the Jaguars ability to secure the win/division. Fingers crossed for a pleasant surprise Sunday afternoon. Hit the under too.
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-2.5)
Quite possibly the last time we see Bill Belichick sulking along the New England sidelines as head coach, an incredibly foreign proposition. However, incredibly fitting that it come against the Jets-- a team he's beaten 15 straight times. Best believe he's amped up to make it 16.
Easier said than done though with a Patriots roster devoid of talent. The spark Bailey Zappe provided seems all but gone, Ezekiel Elliott's wearing down with increased usage and the receiving core may be the worst in the NFL. But their defense is legit, which may be all they need against Trevor Siemian and Company.
The career journeyman hasn't really done much to inspire in recent starts. Occasional intermediate passes to Garrett Wilson or Xavier Gipson are too few and far amidst the dump-off fests Breece Hall's been enjoying. A wholly unexciting group led by a crappy head coach. It's got to suck being a Jets' fan.
I'm not sure there's anyway Belichick's leaving New England on a loss. If there was one, last game to get up for, this would be it. Patriots take home Bill's final chapter in this rivalry turned massacre.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
Technically, this game does mean something to both teams. Atlanta is somehow grasping to playoff chances, albeit slim. New Orleans doesn't control their own destiny, but could position themselves for a home game next week with a win. Not sure either side is super motivated for it though.
The Saints have been surprisingly decent of late, winning 3 of their last 4. Playing lockdown defense has been a key catalyst of the turnaround, allowing just 8.3 PPG in those 3 victories. Even Derek Carr hasn't been able to fuck that up. The Falcons' D is fading, particularly against solid wideouts. Should be a big day for Chris Olave.
Taylor Heinicke's ankle is banged up, limiting his practice reps through the week. For the neutral fan, this is a bad sign, because we would be subject to Desmond Ridder as a result-- a supremely unexciting prospect. New Orleans boasts a strong run defense too, one that'll likely make a one-dimensional offense very one-dimensional-- just not in the way in the Falcons could work with. Rough finale to Bijan Robinson's first go round the NFL.
Absolutely no reason the Saints lose this, right? Not to this Falcons team, with the postseason on the line, right? My gut's screaming Saints, but it was screaming Bucs last week when the division rivals squared off. So we'll go spoiler, let me get Atlanta to effectively conclude Dennis Allen's career as a head coach.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) at Carolina Panthers
Sticking in the NFC South for the other half of their divisional battles, this time featuring the Bucs and Panthers.
I think we all saw enough of Carolina last week, falling 26-0 to the Jaguars. The only thing that fell faster was David Tepper's cocktail, being pulled down to Earth at 9.8 m/s after he threw it at an opposing fan. What a sad, weak, bald man. And his team fucking sucks.
Baker Mayfield's thrown 18 touchdowns compared to just 3 interceptions on the road. The Panthers can't stop the run at all, plus it seems like they've shipped this season in, so Tampa should be able to take this however they want.
Hammer a Rachaad White anytime TD, 2+ Baker Mayfield passing TDs and a Buccaneers cover on your parlay, as they rack up their third straight division title. Good luck on the coaching search Mr. Tepper, be prepared to write some big numbers on that check.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)
This game should've been so much more meaningful. Blown leads against the Lions and Browns ultimately cost the Bears a shot at a postseason berth, but they can still ruin Green Bay's season.
Justin Fields has been great over the last month, flashing the dual threat ability that made him so appealing two years ago in the draft. His future with the franchise is in jeopardy, so he's absolutely going to get up for this finale. His top receiver and avid supporter DJ Moore should be able to feast against a shaky Packers' secondary.
The ground game is where Chicago will do their most damage however. Green Bay's allowing the 3rd most rushing yards to QBs and the 10th most the running backs; a horrible combination with how well Khalil Herbert's been running the ball. If they can avoid the turnover, the Bears' offense should be able to do whatever they want Sunday afternoon.
Can Jordan Love keep up? After an iffy start to his first full season as a starter, Love's become a productive and stabilizing force for an offense that's pretty devoid of star power. This Bears' defense is really good, even without top cornerback Jaylon Johnson, so he's going to have his hands full finding open receivers. Meanwhile, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon rarely get going against the worst run stoppers in the league-- what do we think the #1 unit is going to do to them?
On top of all of the above, we're expecting cold weather and snow up at Lambeau. Nothing new for either of these teams, but seems to favor Chicago's style of play. Let me get the underdogs, finishing their season on a high note!
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (-3.5)
The one matchup on this slate that has literally no impact on the playoffs. Jarrett Stidham vs. Aidan O'Connell, squaring off for second place in the AFC West. Fireworks.
Stidham recently played for Las Vegas, so they probably know some of his tendencies better than others. The Raiders' defense in general has been a strong group this season, so expect them to shut down Jarrett with relative ease.
On the other hand, O'Connell at least completed some passes in the latter quarters last week. And seemed to realize that there's not only nothing wrong with peppering Davante Adams with targets, but it's actually beneficial to success. Why not try it again here? Zamir White should have plenty of room to run too-- the Broncos allow the second most rushing yards.
Raiders send Antonio Pierce out on top!
Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) at New York Giants
Is there a team in the NFL that looks less inspiring than the Philadelphia Eagles right now? Outside of the Panthers, I'm not sure there's any others even in the discussion. But they're 11-5, still very much in the thick of the NFC East race, which makes this a must win if they want a chance at hosting during the wildcard round.
The Eagles decline from 10-1 to 11-5 has been rapid and severe. The offense is too loose with the ball, and clunky when they're not. For whatever reason, they refuse to establish the run traditionally, which has helped opposing teams take away AJ Brown and Devonta Smith. And the defense is just putrid at this point; an unprecedented fall off from a year ago. So much talent, so much underperformance.
Tyrod Taylor and the G-Men are dangerous too, at least more so than they were with Tommy DeVito under center. They absolutely can't be slept on, especially if Saquon is able to get rolling on the ground. Don't be surprised to see Jalen Hyatt or Darius Slayton bust a long one on a busted coverage against this disaster of a secondary.
It's so hard to pick against Philly with the talent discrepancy alone, but I've seen the shit they've put onto the football field over the last month. The over feels like the safest play in this one.
Dallas Cowboys (-13.5) at Washington Commanders
The true test of Dallas' road ineptitude. They're juggernauts in Jerry World, but shadows of themselves away from home-- Dak in particular. Washington's secondary is so bad, surrendering more yards to receivers than any other. No excuse for Prescott and this offense to not clear 30 with ease. CeeDee Lamb should find the end zone and top the century mark, quite possibly in the first half.
Could very well be the last start for Sam Howell on the Commanders. He built up a ton of momentum during the first half of the season but has free fallen out of favor over the last month. The Cowboys' defense is sharp and should give Howell some trouble, especially considering he'll probably be playing catch up. Too volatile to really invest on any prop plays from this offense.
It has to be Dallas, road game be damned. It has to be Dallas. Has to be.
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals
After finally breaking their 5 game losing streak, then clawing back over .500, the Seahawks dropped a bad one at home to the Steelers to put their postseason aspirations into peril. Now, they don't even control their own destiny as they travel down to Glendale for a date with the upstart Cardinals.
Geno Smith's late fumble was a key moment in that Pittsburgh loss, allowing them to essentially ice the game. He must avoid mistakes that give an up and down Arizona offense extra, easy scoring opportunities. Between DK Metcalf, JSN and Tyler Lockett, he'll have somebody open on every play. Kenneth Walker should be able to punish the league's worst run unit too.
What's Kyler Murray got to say though? He was awesome in their upset in Philadelphia, really elevating a weak receiving core to pull out the victory. Definitely a tougher matchup, but nothing he hasn't seen before. James Conner should be busy too, regardless of game script. He's been awesome for this offense all year.
Thinking this'll be a fun, high scoring back and forth where Seattle pulls out a late win.
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)
Blaine Gabbert vs. Easton Stick. Sheesh.
I don't want to watch this game, don't want to bet it. Want no real reason to care about it. But I do think the Chiefs pull off the "upset". The Chargers quit a month ago.
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
A much more interesting battle of the backups, featuring Carson Wentz vs. Sam Darnold. Should be some potential for mild competence.
Both teams are basically locked into their playoff positions, so we won't be seeing many key names. Good test for each of their depth players, get those guys some extra burn to sharpen up before the postseason.
Hard to get a read on things as a result. So based on the quarterbacks only, I'll take the 49ers to win, but the Rams to cover.
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at Miami Dolphins
For the AFC East crown! A game with a ton at stake, and possibly more so come game time. If the Jaguars and Steelers happen to each win their matchups, then this would suddenly turn into a win or go home scenario for Bills. An insane turn of events.
Bad Josh Allen was back last week, allowing the Patriots to linger for far too long. He cannot come out like that against Miami or they could dig themselves into a big hole. Xavien Howard and Bradley Chubb's injuries won't hurt his effort, but there's still plenty of talent to worry about. Will this be the week he and Stefon Diggs get back on the same page? It doesn't feel like it.
James Cook should be utilized regularly, as long as he can hold onto the ball. The Bills were noticeably better when he was more involved during their win streak, something they'd be wise to get back to.
Curious how banged up Tua Tagovailoa is. He's been practicing in full, despite a slew of injuries, but clearly wasn't himself as their game against Baltimore progressed last week. Miami's divisional hopes will be riding on his left arm. They'll be hoping Jaylen Waddle is able to return too, helping exploit a banged up secondary. Tyreek Hill's a one man show, but having a Robin to your Batman is never a bad thing.
Raheem Mostert's availability is another question mark in South Beach. He's currently listed as questionable, and would really add the thunder to Devon Achane's lightning if he's able to suit up. The duo have been the best backfield in the league in the few opportunities they've had to cohabitate it.
Feels like a moment that's more foreign to Tua than Allen, which I think will play a part in this Sunday Nighter. This is going to be a strange game, where both sides may appear to be trying to give it away at some point or another. Wouldn't mind being incorrect about this, but I'm leaning toward Buffalo to get it done. In the final regular season game of the 2023 season.
Records on the season:
131-123 ATS
155-99 SU
128-116 O/U
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, clearly, just my opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
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