To the divisional rounds we go, the final eight teams. While I'm certainly not the first to bring it up, it's certainly worth noting the quarterback discrepancy between the two leagues:
AFC: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, CJ Stroud
NFC: Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, Jordan Love
Quite a range of accomplishments between both groups, with the AFC boasting some MVP's, two Super Bowls, an incoming Offensive Rookie of the Year-- compared to the NFC boasting a top-three finalist in Comeback Player of the Year. Some spread.
All jokes aside, it is cool to see some new faces earning their way to this round. Every game this weekend should be entertaining, with some stories worth following, so let's get into them.
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)
A rematch of a week one battle that featured rookie CJ Stroud, making his inaugural start, in a hostile M&T Bank against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Like many first year quarterbacks' that travel to Baltimore, the trip didn't end well, with Houston suffering a 25-9 defeat. But they hung versus an elite AFC team, continuously and exponentially improving since, which sets the stage for a whale of a rematch.
CJ Stroud was playing at near-MVP level prior to his concussion, but still is a shoo-in to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year after a masterful season. He carried over that same level of performance last week, as the Texans dismantled the Browns. This Baltimore defense is a much tougher task, as he well knows. Establishing the run to keep themselves multi-dimensional will be huge, as well as targeting the middle of the field. For whatever reason, especially early in games, the Ravens suck at covering the middle. Look for Dalton Schultz to put up some respectable numbers.
But the Ravens have improved as well, as LJ8 has really excelled within Todd Monken's scheme. He's been distributing the ball well, dumping it off when nothings open downfield, while still taking off when necessary. There was an outside chance of Mark Andrews playing after practicing in full this week, but he'll still be on the shelf. Look for Isaiah Likely to remain involved against a Texans D that isn't good versus the tight end.
However, Dalvin Cook was elevated to the active roster for the weekend. Very interested to see if it was the Jets' terrible offensive line behind his early season struggles, or if he's washed. After averaging just 3.2 yards per carry for New York, it's a fair question. But he is only 28, the same age as Gus Edwards, so I don't think my optimism is unfounded.
9.5 is a ton of points to be giving a team like Houston that has a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. I do think the Ravens cover, but this won't be a cake walk. Will Anderson and Derek Stingley are going to make Lamar and company work for it, but a Baltimore team at near full strength is too tall of an order. Also taking the over to sneak in late.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)
Green Bay pulled off the dominant upset in classic throwback matchup with Dallas last Sunday, and now will have a chance for an encore performance in Santa Clara.
Unlike those Cowboys though, the 49ers are far from frauds. Brock Purdy is the real deal, likely to finish in the top five for MVP voting. Some contest that he's still not much more than a glorified game manager, but on a team featuring Christian McCaffery, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, what more do they need? The Packers defense will need to be on their P's and Q's to limit the damage this explosive bunch doles out.
Jordan Love's no slouch in his own right though, boasting an 18:1 TD:INT ratio since the middle of November-- just pristine quarterbacking. The fact that he's doing it with a supporting cast of Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks only adds to his enigma; what would his ceiling be with a true star or two?
We may never find out, as Love has undoubtedly earned himself a massive extension in the coming offseason or two that'll strap the team financially. But that's okay, he's showing that he's a guy that can elevate those around him. The Niners biggest weakness is their pass defense, which plays right into the Packers' strength. If their offensive line can keep Love upright, there should be some windows for him to exploit.
Love the over in this game, with a feeling both teams could score 30+. With how hot Green Bay has been, I like them with the points, but San Francisco should be a bit too much to topple.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-6.5)
To Sunday we go, for two very interesting battles. The early game is kicking off in Detroit, with Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers coming to town.
Despite dismantling the Eagles in Raymond James Stadium last Monday, Baker has actually been substantially more productive on the road during his resurgence, with 18 touchdowns compared to just 3 picks away from home. If the Lions struggle in one area defensively, it's against the pass, and they should have their hands full with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Both of these front sevens shine against the run though, making the trench wars something interesting to keep an eye on. Rachaad White's been awesome for the Bucs, just missing out on clearing the 1,000 yard mark during his second season in the league, but don't expect him to have an easy one Sunday. Same for Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, who combined for 1,960 yards but will be tasked with dodging Devin White and Vita Vea all afternoon. Not an enviable position.
Jared Goff can't be slept on to sling the ball though, fully embracing Ben Johnson's system with astronomical success. Amon Ra St. Brown is going to be open regularly, while the healthier Sam LaPorta dices a unit that allowed the third most yards and receptions to the tight end position. No reason this Detroit passing attack shouldn't be potent.
This is one of those games everyone wants to crush the over, but the result comes up a bit short. I like the Lions to win their second consecutive home playoff game, earning a berth in the NFC Championship game.
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
If the NFL was being super picky, they maybe would've preferred this matchup to go down a week from now, but they'll happily oblige with any Chiefs-Bills postseason action.
Kansas City looked as sharp as they have in a while against the Dolphins, completely outplaying them every facet of the game. It was the best Travis Kelce's looked in a while too, which is super encouraging. Throw in Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco hitting their strides and this offense suddenly looks formidable.
The Chiefs defense has been playing at a really high level too, which'll provide some interesting challenges for Josh Allen. As electric a playmaker as Allen can be, he also has a penchant for turnovers. Can't do that against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs, so he'll need to play clean. Gabe Davis won't be suiting up, meaning a few more targets for Khalil Shakir. I'd imagine Stefon Diggs and the two-headed monster of Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox will be involved heavily.
James Cook will be an X-Factor also. Buffalo is a clearly more productive offense when they're not one-dimensional, but that's also a problem they sometimes create for themselves sometimes. And Cook has his own ball security issues...but we don't need to go there pessimistically. He should get a steady dose of carries though.
Like the Chiefs here, they just seem to have the Bills number in the playoffs. It'll be close, it'll be wonky and it'll certainly be cold. Give me Kansas City and the under.
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, clearly, just my opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
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