Just three more games remaining in this NFL season. Two to determine conference champions, then one more to crown the Kings of the 2023 campaign. These are moments we've been patiently waiting for, a culmination to an exciting and weird year. The best 4 teams in the league remaining, without much argument against that statement.
These Ravens, Chiefs, Lions and 49ers units have each been incredibly consistent-- whether in quality or iffiness-- through all 18 weeks + the postseason. They've stuck to their identities and it's paid off with AFC and NFC Championship game appearances. Only two will survive, and we're about to find out who.
Til then, this is what we're thinking:
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) 3:00 PM
Pretty wild to think this is the first time the Ravens will host the AFC Championship, on their fifth trip in the franchise's 28 years of existence. On the 23rd anniversary of their first Super Bowl no less, ironically coinciding with my 32nd birthday. Cannot wait to be in attendance for this game.
Can anybody stop Lamar Jackson right now? The impending MVP has been on an absolutely torrid pace over the last two months. Stop his legs? Cool, he'll sling the rock down the field to Zay Flowers or OBJ. Drop back 7 or 8 into coverage and he's content torching you on the ground. It is incredible football to watch.
Kansas City's defense is tough, but they allowed James Cook and Josh Allen to gash them on the ground for three quarters last Sunday. That recipe would be a death sentence in Baltimore, so I'd imagine it's been a point of emphasis in practice this week. Gus Edwards' availability, or lack thereof, will be something to monitor too. He's a battering ram for the Ravens' offense, providing a pop that Justice Hill and Dalvin Cook can't quite replicate. Mark Andrews' snap count is worth monitoring as well, adding another weapon to this group.
But with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, you always have a chance, especially in the playoffs. The phenom is 13-1 in the postseason against anybody not named Tom Brady; a tall task for any opposition. This Baltimore D is legit though, one of the more stout in a franchise known historically for their defensive prowess, and the KC playmakers aren't exactly an imposing bunch. If they can limit the damage Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice do through the air, and contain Isiah Pacheco in the run game, it'll be challenging for Mahomes to overcome.
Still not sure how Shawn Smith and Company got assigned as the referees to this game, but Roger Goodell and the NFL have never seemingly cared about appearing impartial. Home teams have managed to win just 40.8% of games with Smith's crew on the call, which isn't a stat I like to see as a Ravens fan. But this defense is too strong and Lamar is simply on another level right now. Much like the Houston game, I see this one being tight until Baltimore flexes their muscles late and pulls away.
Take the under too, 44.5 seems a bit high.
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) 6:30 PM
Foreign territory for the Detroit Lions here, having been 32 years since their last NFC Championship game. This team is wholly deserving though, as are the Niners, priming us for a hell of a back and forth out in Santa Clara.
Jared Goff started slow last Sunday but lit the Bucs up in the second half. Keeping him upright was crucial to that, as their offensive line was outstanding against a tough Tampa front. Injuries to Jonah Jackson and Frank Ragnow are absolutely crucial to keep an eye on, as they anchor the Lions' elite offensive line. Jackson is currently doubtful, making Ragnow's availability even more critical. They need all hands on deck against San Francisco's elite defensive line.
If they can keep Goff's jersey clean though, he should have some success against a suspect secondary. Amon Ra St. Brown's been playing awesome, which should be able to continue this weekend. Will be cool to see how Fred Warner deals with Sam LaPorta and/or Jahmyr Gibbs in the pass game. The All-Pro middle linebacker is outstanding, but those two can be a handful for even the best.
San Francisco's offense is equally formidable though, especially now that it looks like Deebo Samuel is going to be able to suit up. He, Christian McCaffery, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are as talented a group of weapons as you'll encounter in the league-- it's just a matter of Brock Purdy getting them the rock.
2022's Mr. Irrelevant gets a ton of unjustified hate for his strong performances-- it's not like he should renounce himself or play recklessly just because he's surrounded by blue chip talent. He wasn't great last week though, albeit in crappy weather. Detroit's secondary isn't great, but they certainly improved with Chauncey Gardner-Johnson's return. They'll have their hands full, but don't sleep on them. The run defense is going to be the bigger issue versus CMC.
At the barest of minimums, the Lions getting 7.5 points is a lock. They're humming offensively, while their defense is playing more than adequately enough to not get steamrolled. I'll take it a step further though and pick them outright, on the road, pulling off the upset! The Niners are looking just a bit more vulnerable of late, despite their glutton of talent. The over should hit too in this slug fest.
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, clearly, just my opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
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