Fantasy championships, reliable starting lineups, inevitable drama and despair. The penultimate regular season week of NFL football, always a loaded one. And this one's no different, featuring a Sunday jam-packed with 14 matchups; no finer way to bring in the new year.
Let's talk football, one last time in 2023:
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (-6.5) (Thursday 12/28)
This is such a fitting way to wrap up Thursday Night Football for the 2023 season, with the lowly Jets riding high into Cleveland for a date with the Browns. Anticipating a one sided affair.
Joe Flacco's revenge will be one of the storylines from this game. After three subpar years as a backup for New York, the former Super Bowl MVP gets to host the team that chose to bring in Tim Boyle instead of keeping him as the third string QB. How sweet it'll be.
Amari Cooper versus Sauce Gardner should provide some great matchups, curious how much he follows him. Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt should also be able to bang out some rushing yards against a front seven that's surprisingly bad against the run. David Njoku has a good chance to find the end zone again too against a familiar face in CJ Mosley.
Back to Tim Boyle, who was recently benched for Trevor Siemian. Can't imagine the Jets felt like they'd be in a spot where letting Flacco walk would come back to hurt them, but here we are. Siemian is in line for a terrible outing against a Cleveland defense that's substantially better at home, allowing just 10 PPG. There's almost no world in which he's competent, tanking Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson's production in the process.
The over/under at 34.5 feels fair. The total might be close to that number, but I'll take the under. Browns win handily though, the Jets may have less than 200 yards of offense.
Starts: David Njoku, Jerome Ford
Sits: Garrett Wilson
Sleepers: Xavier Gipson
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) (Saturday 12/30)
Going to learn a lot from this game. Are the Cowboys complete phonies, or can they at least continue to play well at home? Will they be able to slow the duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery?
We're going to find out Saturday night! Dallas has been incredible in Jerry World, outscoring opponents 40-15 in their seven wins. Dak Prescott's been a huge part of that, throwing 20 of his 30 touchdowns at home. Given the Lions' struggles on the defensive side of the ball, he should be good for a couple Saturday night.
CeeDee Lamb would be a likely recipient of one of those scores. He's caught 7 of his 9 scores in Dallas, part of his monstrous season overall. 109 catches for 1,424 yards with two games to go, really fulfilling the potential he came into the league with. Look for Jake Ferguson to be busy too.
Back to Gibbs and Montgomery though. The two-headed monster has come on strong during Detroit's two game win streak and are clearly the team's best path to victory. The Cowboys aren't great against the run, so they'll have a chance to rumble again here in the prime time spotlight.
Dan Quinn's defense can't sell out against the rush either with Amon Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta in the wings. How well Stephon Gilmore can hang with St. Brown will massively impact this game flow. How disruptive Micah Parsons can be will also be a big factor. Jared Goff historically wilts under pressure, so the game wrecker could make his presence felt in the pass rush. He's only racked up 1.5 sacks though over the last month, a very cold stretch by his standard.
I really want to see the Lions win this game, but something tells me the Cowboys find a way to keep their home win streak in tact. Detroit +6.5 though, feels like a safety net they should easily fall into. Hoping for the over too, this game could be really fun.
Starts: CeeDee Lamb, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jake Ferguson
Sits: Tony Pollard
Sleepers: Jalen Tolbert, Jameson Williams
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-12.5)
We talked about it some on the show, but it's impossible to trust the Buffalo Bills right now. It seems like they're just as likely to commit 3 turnovers and lose to any team as they are to win by 40 on a given day. Not exactly the type of excitement you're looking for as a fan.
Josh Allen and James Cook are playing good football right now; when they're not fumbling away to their opponents anyway. Cook will definitely be tested versus a front seven that's remained under the radar as one of the best run stopping units in the league. It'll likely come down to some hero ball from their quarterback-- a style of play he's willing to oblige with.
But will his top wideout show up? Stefon Diggs has just 101 yards over his last three weeks. He'd averaged 103 per game through the first six weeks of the year, but has really seen his production fall off. If he can't be a reliable target, this offense will likely struggle.
Not sure Bailey Zappe is the man to take advantage though. He was great last week in Denver, but their defense hasn't consistently played well all season, so I'll take that with a grain of salt. The Bills have a lot to play for and are simply a more talented bunch. Ezekiel Elliott's going to touch the ball 20+ times though, fire him up for your fantasy finals.
New England's already defeated Buffalo once this year, with Mac Jones at the helm no less, so their luck may have already ran out in this matchup. Hard to beat a team twice. But with how well their defense is playing, if they can avoid giving the Bills short fields, the Patriots should be able to cover at least.
Starts: Ezekiel Elliott, Josh Allen
Sits: Dalton Kincaid
Sleepers: Khalil Shakir, Tyquan Thornton
Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears (-3.5)
If Darnell Mooney could've just held on to that Hail Mary...then we'd really have something to talk about for this one. Instead, we've just got two crappy teams battling it out at Soldier Field.
Taylor Heinicke is less than 100%, dealing with an ankle injury, which means we may be subject to Desmond Ridder. Make sure to have a backup plan for entertainment. Whoever is under center is going to struggle, for lack of skill and the fact that the Bears defense has been ferocious.
They're #1 against the run, which is bad foreshadowing for a Falcons team that depends on it. Bijan Robinson's game scripts rise and fall like the tides, so hard to even predict how much work he'll get, let alone any success with it.
The Justin Fields live audition marches on another week. He wasn't bad in their win over Arizona, but didn't play to a level that's got anyone keeping him over Caleb Williams just yet. He should fare well against Atlanta, who are not good at containing the quarterback. Even if they cover up Fields' targets downfield, look for him to have plenty of scrambling room. Fire up his anytime TD too, with confidence.
With D'Onta Foreman returning from a personal issue, it'll be interesting to see the splits in Chicago's backfield. Khalil Herbert ran with a purpose over the Cardinals, certainly justifying a higher percentage of that load. At this point, Roschon Johnson seems like a wild card at best.
Going to be a chilly Sunday in the Windy City, which favors the hometown guys over a dome team from Georgia. Bears should have no problem going home as winners.
Starts: Justin Fields
Sits: Tyler Allgeier, Drake London
Sleepers: Bears defense
Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
Indianapolis is clinging onto the seventh seed with every bit of energy they've got. Seems to be more some weeks than others, particularly from Gardner Minshew.
Everyone's favorite backup has some days where he's the most exciting QB in the league-- the mullet/mustache combo, reckless abandon and willingness to chuck it downfield. It can be great stuff to watch. Then he pulls stunts like he did in Atlanta and looks completely incapable of succeeding for an entire sixty minutes. I guess that's what bumps you to second string.
Getting Michael Pittman Jr. back will be helpful. Their WR1 was unable to play in that debacle against the Falcons while still dealing with side effects from a concussion. The offense showed how much they missed him. They need all hands on deck if they want to overcome an underrated Vegas D.
But can the Raiders overcome their own quarterback struggles? Aidan O'Connell was good enough to not turn the ball over in their Christmas upset over Kansas City, but he failed to complete a pass for 75% of the game. Not a stat to put on the ole mantle. It should be a little easier against Indy's secondary.
That's if they even need to throw the ball. The Colts have a bottom five rushing defense, which is what killed them in Atlanta and exactly how Las Vegas controlled their game versus the Chiefs. No Josh Jacobs? No problem. Zamir White's been awesome in the absence of #28, averaging 5.5 YPC and 107 YPG. Don't be surprised to see him run back similar numbers.
Last week was kind of the final straw for me with Indianapolis. I say that with a little trepidation because they didn't have MPJ, but one receiver shouldn't drop you off that much. Too wishy washy with my guy Gardner at the reins. So let's go Raiders, playing spoiler in a road upset.
Starts: Zamir White/Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, Jonathan Taylor
Sits: Josh Downs
Sleepers: Ameer Abdullah, Alec Pierce
Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) at New York Giants
I could have a soft spot for Tyrod Taylor, but I think this should actually be a fun game. The Rams have been very entertaining over the last month, with Matthew Stafford airing it out to his star receivers while Kyren Williams pounds opposing lines away on the ground. Now that everyone is fully healthy, the on-field product has started to show.
Two key injuries to track are those of cornerback Deontae Banks and defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence, particularly the latter. Both players are integral pieces of the Giants' defense, but they're a bottom five group against the rush even with Lawrence out there. His absence would spell for a huge day for Williams.
Not sure I'd be bold enough to start Tyrod in any of my fantasy championships, but this LA defense isn't the most imposing group for him to draw. His connection with Darius Slayton was most apparent, but don't overlook Darren Waller and Daniel Bellinger. The two talented tight ends draw a plus matchup against a unit that doesn't defend the position well.
Saquon Barkley's going to get his too. He'll know Aaron Donald well by the time the clock hits 0:00 in the fourth, but a workman's type line is definitely his floor.
Rams stay hot and bring home the road win! Feels like an over kind of game too, currently set at a pretty approachable 44.5. Should be some explosive offense, at least by LA.
Starts: Darren Waller, Kyren Williams
Sits: Wan'Dale Robinson, Tyler Higbee
Sleepers: Daniel Bellinger,
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-11.5)
The Cardinals have already taken out one NFC East juggernaut this year in the Dallas Cowboys, and that was with Josh Dobbs at the helm. What's to say they can't pull off another upset?!
Kyler Murray back at QB is obviously a huge upgrade over Dobbs or Clayton Tune. He's been far from perfect, but one also has to consider the supporting cast. James Conner and Trey McBride have been awesome, thoroughly outperforming expectations, but then it falls off sharply. Hollywood Brown's on IR, leaving Greg Dortch, Rondale Moore...just a bunch of nobodies at wideout. Hard to get a read on where Murray's truly at.
After struggling a bit with the G-Men last week, Philadelphia would really like to see a dominant performance this Sunday. Jalen Hurts and the offense are getting healthier, with a really weak unit opposite of them. Has to be a prime explosion spot if we can feel good about them moving into the playoffs. The Cardinals league worst rush D will be put to the test.
If Arizona had a little more firepower at receiver, I'd feel pretty good about them covering this spread. They've been scrappy enough as a team overall and Philly's secondary is pretty terrible. I'm just not sure they've got the guys right now. E-A-G-L-E-S Eagles.
Starts: Jalen Hurts, D'Andre Swift, Greg Dortch
Sits: James Conner
Sleepers: Elijah Higgins
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5)
Time to finish the job Baker. The Bucs are currently on a four game win streak, led by their fiery quarterback Baker Mayfield, well in the midst of a career revival. It's been a fun story to follow this season. A win Sunday secures their division title and a home playoff game-- something that seemed impossible a few weeks ago when they sat at 4-7.
But Mayfield's been that good, boasting a 9:1 TD:INT ratio over this hot stretch. Mike Evans has been his go to guy, but he's shown he'll make it work with Rachaad White and Chris Godwin on the rare occasion the defense takes Evans away. The Saints defense is a shell of their former selves, giving opportunity for all three skill players to go off.
Will Derek Carr be able to keep up? The Bucs suck against the pass, so he should be able to connect with Chris Olave regularly. Maybe a deep shot to Rashid Shaheed? It's hard to get excited about him though, especially with starting tackle Ryan Ramczyk not helping keep him upright. Not sure how much they'll be able to set the tone in the run game either, an area they've struggled.
This line feels low to me. These teams are on two totally different ends of the spectrum right now performance-wise. Tampa's going to the playoffs, sending Dennis Allen back to NOLA for his final game as a head coach.
Starts: Mike Evans, Rachaad White, Chris Olave
Sits: Alvin Kamara
Sleepers: Juwan Johnson
San Francisco 49ers (-13.5) at Washington Commanders
Bloodbath.
San Francisco just got embarrassed on Christmas by the Ravens and want revenge. What a better way then against the sad, sad Commanders. DC will be down a bunch of offensive linemen and cornerbacks, which is a terrible recipe about the Niners. And Jacoby Brissett, not that it matters, is potentially going to be unable to play. Meaning we could get another abysmal afternoon of Sam Howell. Woof.
49ers by as much as they want.
Starts: The Niners core skill players + Brock Purdy
Sits: Brian Robinson, Logan Thomas
Sleepers: Antonio Gibson
Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5)
No Trevor Lawrence, quite possibly adding one more nail to the Jaguars' coffin. Worse backups to have than CJ Beathard, but man, who could've predicted this monumental collapse by Jacksonville? From first place in the AFC South at 8-3 to 8-7, and that was mostly with Lawrence available. If they can't beat the worst team in the NFL Sunday, they likely will drop the division. And deservedly so.
Travis Etienne's been caught in the downslide as well, failing to eclipse 56 rushing yards since Halloween. Carolina is one of the most generous units against the run in the league, so if he can't get right here, it's a bad look.
Interested to see if Bryce Young can carry over any of the late momentum he built up from their near comeback against the Packers. He and DJ Chark connected well down the field, a sight that's been rare from Young in his rookie season. The Jags have been vulnerable through the air over the last month, so Chark and Adam Thielen could have some increased looks.
I've got some relatively hefty futures depending on Jacksonville winning the AFC South, therefore they're doomed here. Hoping to be wrong, but we'll see. Panthers feel like a lock to cover at least, but I'll give them the nod to win it.
Starts: Travis Etienne, Adam Thielen
Sits: Calvin Ridley
Sleepers: DJ Chark
Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
For the #1 seed in the AFC! I will be present at M&T Sunday for easily one of the more biggest regular season games in Baltimore's history.
Lamar Jackson is the current MVP favorite, albeit it unconventional style. He doesn't have the most passing yards or touchdowns, he turns the ball over a bit more than some would prefer, but he's unmistakably the most important player on this team and an absolute game breaker.
He'll be asked to shoulder the load again against a Miami defense that's gelling more and more with each passing week. His top receiver Zay Flowers is a little banged up, but Lamar has plenty of experience working with lesser talent around him. He'll get the ball where it needs to go, with his arms and legs.
Very different style from his opposing quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. The fellow MVP candidate prefers a traditional pocket passing style, finding his world-class receivers seemingly at will sometimes. He'll be down one of those two big names though, with Jaylen Waddle unable to go. We've seen Tua overcome the loss of Tyreek Hill once this season, but against a defensive unit as talented as the Ravens, you want all the weapons you can get to spread things out.
Raheem Mostert was going to be set for some good work, but now it's going to be the Devon Achane show in the backfield. Baltimore statistically is pretty strong versus the run, but they've been slow starters against Christian McCaffery and Kyren Williams, allowing big chunk rushes on early drives. Achane will hit home runs if he's given space to get to full speed, so the front seven needs to play disciplined early and often.
Call me a homer, but Baltimore should win this at home. M&T is going to be rocking, their defense is going to frustrate Tua while LJ8 and company control the clock and score enough points. Could easily see Miami within that +3.5 however.
Starts: Devon Achane, Isaiah Likely, Lamar Jackson
Sits: Gus Edwards
Sleepers: Justice Hill, Braxton Berrios
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-3.5)
CJ Stroud, you couldn't come back at a better time for these Texans. Back at home with the AFC South title essentially up for grabs against a weak secondary; no better way to jump back into things.
Even with Tank Dell sidelined, Stroud will have more than enough firepower between Nico Collins, Noah Brown and Dalton Schultz to make the Titans pay all afternoon. I don't expect much from Houston in the rushing game, but Devin Singletary made me eat that prediction two weeks ago, rumbling for 121 yards. If they get ahead early, it could be a very positive game script for him.
Will Levis will be under center for Tennessee, permitting us to see the rookie showdown we were denied when these teams first met. Houston's corners can ball, but they'll also let up a splash play here and there-- something Deandre Hopkins is always on the prowl for. Chig Okonkwo should also be productive against a bottom five group versus tight end.
The Titans couldn't beat this team at home with Case Keenum leading the charge, so how are they going to do it on the road with Stroud back in action? I trust Mike Vrabel to address that question more competently than many head coaches, but it won't matter this week. Texans take it.
Starts: Chigoziem Okonkwo, CJ Stroud, Nico Collins
Sits: Treylon Burks, Derrick Henry
Sleepers: Ty'Jae Spears, Robert Woods
Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5)
A showdown between two 8-7 squads up in the Pacific Northwest. Lots on the line!
The Seahawks' record currently has them sitting in the 7th seed for the NFC, one game ahead of Minnesota, Green Bay, Atlanta and New Orleans. They won't encounter a 'win and in' scenario this week because the Vikings/Packers play each other, but this isn't a game they can afford to drop.
Geno Smith needs to be better throughout the game than he was in Tennessee. Outside of the final drive, he looked indecisive and anxious in the pocket, failing to get much of anything going. His WR1 DK Metcalf missed practice Thursday and Friday with a back injury, which may limit both of their ceilings.
Lead dog Kenneth Walker is also ailing a bit, which may explain his generally inefficient play over the last two months. Nice breakout spot for him here against a Steelers' defense that struggles to stop limit running backs.
With Christmas now being over, do we see the Mason Rudolph regression? He was incredibly sharp against the Bengals last Saturday, trusting George Pickens to beef up his box score. Good strategy, but perhaps a little fluky-- can we reasonably expect Pickens to make multiple 50+ yard plays each week? Not impossible, but something tells me Rudolph, Kenny Pickett and Mister Biscuit aren't the guys to get it out of him though.
Seattle's also bad against the run, which could spell another busy day for Najee Harris. Pittsburgh's RB1 benefitted from having some decency at quarterback last week, taking advantage of running room en route to a 78 yard day. 12 carry floor in this one, with a chance to be way higher if the game stays close. Jaylen Warren could bust a big one too.
I'm going to take the Seahawks to win, but that's not with overwhelming confidence. This is a textbook underdog game that Mike Tomlin likes to pull out, especially with his streak of .500 records on the line. If you find them at +4.5, absolutely worth a stab.
Starts: Najee Harris, Kenneth Walker, Jaylen Warren
Sits: Diontae Johnson
Sleepers: Jake Bobo
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (-5.5)
Drama in Denver, nothing new if you've been following the last year and a half. Doubling down on a terrible trade/contract by alienating your starting quarterback during the middle of a playoff chase, brilliant move Walton's. Bet they'd like to roll that one back.
So that leaves us with Easton Stick vs. Jarrett Stidham in a game that mathematically has scant meaning. Not even sure the fans of these teams are tuning in for this one.
Not much more to say about it. I picked the Chargers to win, for what it's worth. Flip a coin and see what happens.
Starts: Probably nobody if you actually want to win your leagues
Sits:
Sleepers:
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)
A lowkey rivalry that we've seen brewing over the last few seasons, although this matchup lacks a bit of the pizzazz with Joe Shiesty on the mend.
The Chiefs' lack of offense will surely make this one at least interesting. Outside of Rashee Rice, their receivers rarely get open, often dropping the ball on the few occasions they are successful. Travis Kelce has been blanketed for majority of the season as well, putting up his worst numbers in years. Hard to get excited about this group.
But Patrick Mahomes is still at the helm, so they'll always have a fighting chance. He may actually have some success connecting with #87 this week too, as the Bengals allow the most yards to tight ends in the league. Maybe don't bet the house on it, but he may not have a better opportunity to shine than here. Isiah Pacheco should bounce back from a bad day too, as he's been cleared from concussion protocol and is good to go.
Ja'Marr Chase may be back, which is huge for a Cincy offense that definitely could've used him last week. With the playoffs still in reach, he'll 100% be going if he's able. But it's still Jake Browning throwing him the ball, who seemingly came cratering back to Earth in their debacle against Pittsburgh. An encore of that disastrous day seems far more likely than a bounce back against a stout KC defensive unit, but Browning's got the weapons around him to bail out a few mistakes while boosting his numbers, so we'll see.
Lou Anarumo is maybe the best D coordinator I've seen in recent years during the final stretch of seasons. Best believe he's going to have a good game plan in place to frustrate Mahomes and Co. But their offensive limitations are going to drag them down, burying the Bengals in a low scoring affair. Chiefs win and secure their 8th straight division title.
Starts: Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco
Sits: Joe Mixon
Sleepers: Chase Brown, Tyler Boyd
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5)
So, so grateful that Baltimore/Miami wasn't flexed to this Sunday Night Football spot. Both of these teams are just outside the playoff picture at 7-8, so we can sell this as a 'win or go home' type of game at least. I guess.
Jordan Love had a nice day down in Carolina, totaling 3 touchdowns in a back and forth that got way tighter than necessary. The Vikings had his number in their first meeting, but their secondary has been faltering some of late, priming him to improve upon that performance. It won't be easy without Christian Watson, but Jayden Reed's return will be a welcome one.
Despite Nick Mullens putting up 24 points and 411 passing yards, Minnesota felt their best chance to win was with Jaren Hall under center. The rookie's starting drive against Atlanta was really encouraging, but a concussion knocked him out before he could build upon it. He won't have TJ Hockenson to throw to, but Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison are fair alternatives. Given the state of the Packers secondary (eyes on you Jaire), this could be a massive boom spot for Hall.
The Vikings coaches have been watching Hall for months now, so obviously they're confident and content with this quarterback switch. Will definitely be tuning in to see what results it bares, but I'll hesitantly roll with Green Bay to keep their season alive.
Starts: Jayden Reed
Sits: Aaron Jones
Sleepers: Jaren Hall
Records on the season:
121-117 ATS
146-92 SU
120-118 O/U
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, clearly, just my opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
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