Happy Holidays everyone! We've got quite the spread for you this weekend: some Thursday, some Saturday, Sunday and Monday too. Divisional games, bangers, and a few stinkers; pee-yew.
A little poetry for y'all. But seriously, time's running short to win money. Fantasy semifinals are underway, only three more weeks of regular season action. Time's a wastin'. With no further adieu:
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) (Thursday 11/21)
Real barn burner to kick off a busy weekend of NFL action... At least there are actual playoff implications at stake to try and hype oneself up for this one.
The Saints have won their last two games by convincing margins, albeit against the Giants and Panthers, but they haven't been passing the eye test. Their offense is generally slow and inconsistent, while the defense performs with enough competence to keep them in things. Derek Carr should have Chris Olave back, which won't hurt them any, but will it be enough to put them over the top?
Alvin Kamara has been a staple for this unit, which will continue again Thursday night. The Rams aren't anything special against the run, so he projects a positive forecast.
Matthew Stafford predictably worked the Commanders Swiss cheese secondary on Sunday, but will have a trickier go of things against this top 10 New Orleans pass D. Fortunately, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are at full strength, so he'll be able to take them on with his key weapons. Kyren Williams will be heavily involved too, averaging 131 yards rushing per game over his last 5. One of the better backs in the league this season, whose really managed to fly under the radar.
The Rams have a huge advantage in the coaching department, which I think will come in handy in this very even matchup. No reason LA drops this at home though, not to the Saints anyway. The 46.5 line seems a bit high too, take that under.
Starts: Alvin Kamara, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, Chris Olave
Sits: Derek Carr
Sleepers: Tyler Higbee
Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (Saturday 11/23)
Into the weekend of football we go, with a classic showdown between two AFC North rivals. This go round features Jake Browning vs. Mason Rudolph under center; captivating.
Browning's first start came against this Pittsburgh team about a month ago, with the career backup going 19/26 for 229, a touchdown and a pick. Modest numbers, which is about what we should expect Saturday. With Minkah Fitzpatrick already ruled out, there should be a few more opportunities for big plays over the top.
The Steelers are very bad against the run, as evidenced by Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson gashing them a week ago, which Joe Mixon should be efficient. Thinking Chase Brown will get a few chances to pop too. The rookie's ran with incredible explosiveness over the last two weeks.
Mason Rudolph though, tis the season I suppose. Hard pressed to think it'll be worse than the shit Mitch Trubisky was putting on the field, but not setting expectations high. Cincy also sucks at stopping the run, so Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren have a chance at being decent, but with blocking like George Pickens put on display last week, it's far from a given.
The last time Pittsburgh won, it was over these Bengals, something they're desperate to get back to. It's a winnable one, especially at home, but it won't be easy. Or particularly fun to watch. Currently leaning toward Cincinnati, but that's subject to change.
Starts: Jaylen Warren, Tyler Boyd
Sits: George Pickens
Sleepers: Chase Brown
Buffalo Bills (-11.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (Saturday 11/23)
Watch out AFC, because these Bills are hot. Torrid. And that spells trouble for Easton Stick this Saturday.
The Chargers backup wasn't the sole reason they lost last week, but he was pretty ineffective. Keenan Allen sitting out didn't help things, but it wasn't a surprise in general. With how well Buffalo's defense has been performing, don't expect any better this go round. Austin Ekeler's going to be dreadful as a result.
Josh Allen's going to decimate this LA secondary. They're overpaid, underperforming and have shipped it in for the season. James Cook will continue to do just that, as the Bills have finally realized that they can not only run the football, but they're actually pretty damn good at it.
Buffalo by whatever they want. Something in the realm of 40-10 is very much in play.
Starts: James Cook, Stefon Diggs
Sits: Quentin Johnston
Sleepers: Latavius Murray
Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)
To Sunday we go, Christmas Eve action for us all.
Taylor Heinicke is going to be getting the nod for Atlanta, which should make their offense a little more bearable to watch than what Desmond Ridder was making us suffer though. Drake London has been incredibly inconsistent with the up and down quarterback play, making him a risky fantasy semifinal start.
Bijan Robinson though, the true wildcard of this game. For whatever reason, Arthur Smith just hates utilizing his best offensive players. Bijan has a prime hammer spot here against a weak Colts' run defense, but how much burn is he even going to get? After a fumble last week, while already seemingly in the dog house, his status is a bold question mark.
Which Gardner Minshew are we going to see here, the gunslinger or the timid, happy feet rendition? Atlanta has a respectable secondary, so this isn't a layup for him, especially if top wideout Michael Pittman Jr. isn't cleared from concussion protocol. He'll continue his dominant streak if he is able to get on the field, the rest of Indy's pass catchers are a complete dart throw at this point.
Jonathan Taylor is set to return too, which is huge news. Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson ran well last week in relief of the injured Zack Moss, but they're not really the guys you want leading your backfield in a must-win type of game. Especially when JT's the alternative. Expect a ton of volume.
Feels safe going with Indianapolis. They play well on the road and have just looked more like a football team than the Falcons lately. Between Minshew and Heinicke though, some weird things are guaranteed to happen.
Starts: Jonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson (hold your breath)
Sits: Josh Downs
Sleepers: Mo Alie-Cox
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans
Putting out a question here: are we sure it's a good thing that Geno Smith is returning for the Seahawks? Truthfully, I say yes. Up and down or not, his floor and ceiling both feel higher than Drew Lock's. But there are people not opposed to running with the hot hand in Lock. We'll find out which side turns out correct.
Smith should be able to make easy work of these Titans' cornerbacks, currently allowing the 5th most yards to receivers. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are going to each put up big plays, but their volume is being eaten into some by rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba over the last month or so. Encouraging for Seattle's outlook, adding another legit weapon to the arsenal.
Starting to feel like we won't be getting Will Levis on Sunday, which raises the next question: Ryan Tannehill or Malik Willis? The dynamics of Tennessee's offense would drastically change depending on that choice, or if Mike Vrabel rolls with the alleged rotating QB situation he suggested earlier in the season. Downgrade all skill players accordingly. And Derrick Henry, fresh off a career worst performance in a disappointing divisional loss. Hard to imagine he's coming out super motivated.
Has to be Seattle's game to lose, despite having some key people banged up. Kind of thinking a sneaky, gross over too
Starts: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett
Sits: Derrick Henry
Sleepers: Ty'Jae Spears
Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Fun NFC North matchup, the first of two meetings between these teams over the next 3 weeks.
The Lions can lock up the division with a road victory, which is an obvious motivation. The idea of Detroit, Rock City hosting a playoff game in January is a foreign one to me, would love to see what that's all about. Their offense found out what they're all about last Saturday: running the ball ferociously to help set up the pass.
Jahmyr Gibbs is emerging as the truly more talented back, hence the pick at #12, but David Montgomery isn't going anywhere. The premier tandem in the league. The Vikings play the run well, but that shouldn't deter Ben Johnson's plan. Pound the rock and open up some play action shots for Jared Goff. He'll hit them.
Outside of the interception off of his ass, Nick Mullens looked fairly sharp against Cincy. No reason to think this offense won't be able to function with similar confidence, but will the results match it? The Lions D is far from an imposing bunch, so it's a decent opportunity for a productive follow up.
Ty Chandler will have a tougher go putting together an encore from his big Bengals performance. Detroit does actually play the run very well, meaning his route to another fantasy explosion would need to come through the air. Mullens does like to target his running backs though, some food for thought.
But it has to be the Lions. Time to make a statement: claim the North as their own and begin fighting for seeding. Hit the over too and hope for some fireworks.
Starts: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon Ra St. Brown, Jordan Addison
Sits: N/A
Sleepers: KJ Osborn, Jameson Williams
Washington Commanders at New York Jets (-2.5)
Really tough matchup for Sam Howell to walk into after getting benched last week versus the Rams. He's fighting for his future as a starter, so there's plenty for him to be getting up for, but what about the rest of the team?
Terry McLaurin boomed in LA, but that was mainly with Jacoby Brissett throwing him the ball. Hard to think he'll come close to replicating that with Sauce Gardner opposite of him. The Jets don't defend the run well, but Brian Robinson isn't likely to play, as he continues to deal with a hamstring injury. Neither Antonio Gibson and Chris Rodriguez are quite the hammer B-Rob is, limiting my faith in them capitalizing on a plus opportunity.
Then there's the Jets offense. A wasteland of potential and hope, with so much talent at the skill positions and just nothing on the offensive line or quarterback. Even they'll struggle to take advantage of squaring off against this pathetic Washington defense. Garrett Wilson could (and should) explode, but gambling on Trevor Siemian consistently getting the ball to him is a scary proposition.
It doesn't seem like the Commanders are particularly interested in winning right now, but the Jets are almost allergic to scoring. Hard to win when you don't score. Commanders steal one on the road, giving Ron Rivera one more feather to put in his cap on the way out the door.
Starts: Antonio Gibson, Garrett Wilson
Sits: Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson
Sleepers: Chris Rodriguez, Xavier Gipson
Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at Carolina Panthers
Two weeks ago, the Packers were the toast of the town. Three straight wins, capped off with an impressive victory at Lambeau over the Kansas City Chiefs. Since then, they've gone 0-2 against the Giants and Bucs, allowing 29 points per game. Their playoff chances have all but evaporated in the process.
One would think they're going to come out and play with some urgency here, in hopes of salvaging what little hope they have left at the postseason. Jordan Love has played well in 3 of their last 4, so not worrying too much about him. But he's got to challenge Carolina Sunday, show the world he's capable of taking home the big game.
The Panthers are bottom five against running backs, which makes this a prime spot for whoever is healthy enough to head Green Bay's backfield. But Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon have underwhelmed for majority of the season, despite more than enough volume and opportunity to shine, so it's far from a guarantee that they can produce.
Bryce Young looked bad once again last week, despite pulling out the win-- probably a script we'll see repeated if he pulls any future dubs out. The Packers have been incapable of keeping opponents out of the end zone lately, so maybe Bryce could pull out something improbable? If so, Adam Thielen and Chuba Hubbard would be a big part of it.
But I don't think we see a winning streak started in Carolina. The Packers are down, but they're not out just yet. With it all on the line, they get it done on the road. Panthers covering though could definitely be in play.
Starts: Aaron Jones, Chuba Hubbard
Sits: Romeo Dobbs
Sleepers: Tucker Kraft
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at Houston Texans
No CJ Stroud is a disappointment, both for Texans fans and for the rest of us following what should still be a Rookie of the Year campaign. Word on the street is that he's improving but still pretty symptomatic from that concussion, like sensitivity to light and general disorientation-- truly scary stuff. Get well King.
So it'll be Case Keenum again, squaring up opposite of arguably the top defense in the league. Not exactly what Demeco Ryans was hoping for. They'll presumably have Nico Collins and Laremy Tunsil back, which'll help the journeyman QB, but this is a low ceiling type of game for Houston's offense as a whole.
Joe Flacco is bacco, despite a little blip onto the injury report midweek. With stout group of run stoppers across from him as well, expect the Browns to have to challenge the Texans through the air. Volume on deck Amari Cooper and David Njoku. Flacco will need to steer clear of Derek Stingley and Will Anderson though. The two are young, budding stars on defense who'll punish any of his mistakes.
Huge playoff implications for whoever takes this game, which makes it more upsetting that Stroud won't be lacing them up. Health comes first though. Cleveland takes the win against a flustered backup quarterback, continuing Flacco's elite run.
Starts: David Njoku
Sits: Nico Collins
Sleepers: Cedric Tillman
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5)
Absolutely critical development to track as Sunday approaches, but Trevor Lawrence is in real danger of missing his first career game if he's unable to get cleared from concussion protocol. Would be a cataclysmic blow to a team already in full meltdown.
Whether it's him or CJ Beathard under center, they have a prime opportunity to pick up some chunk yards through the air against a shaky Bucs secondary. Even without Christian Kirk available, there's enough talent between Calvin Ridley, Evan Engram and Parker Washington to keep them from fully selling out against Travis Etienne.
But will they be able to keep up with Tampa's offense? Baker and the guys were clicking last week, something he could very easily replicate against a floundering group of Jags corners. But I noted on the podcast though how Mayfield has performed substantially better on the road than at home this year, so excited to see how that plays out here. He has a 18:3 TD:INT ratio in away games, compared to a 6:5 at Raymond James. His completion percentage is 5% higher too...strange.
Rachaad White's been awesome, so I'm obligated to give him a little section. Jacksonville has stopped the run well most of the year, but the Ravens put some good tape out there on how to make it work against them. How well White can play will directly impact how productive they'll be on the afternoon.
I really liked the Jaguars to get back on track, but can't confidently pick them without their top QB1-- no matter how much I think he's underachieved thus far. So seesaw selection, depending on that prognosis.
Starts: Calvin Ridley, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans
Sits: Travis Etienne
Sleepers: Parker Washington
Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears (-4.5)
Meaningless game here for playoff purposes, but two dual-threat QB's may provide a little entertainment-- especially considering they both may be in auditions for their next jobs.
Justin Fields can be the most captivating and frustrating quarterback ever within the same 60 minute stretch. In fact, it's something he does routinely, often showing out for a half or so before failing to make any adjustments for those made against him. We saw it once again last week in Cleveland. And as a result, given the state of the Bears' draft capital, it appears his hourglass in the Windy City is running low on sand.
Much easier defense for him to challenge though. Chicago should be able to run the ball just fine, splitting it up with the 3-way clusterfuck of Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson and D'Onta Foreman. Hard to forecast that for fantasy purposes. DJ Moore should be open regularly too, but temper expectations for Cole Kmet. Arizona allows the second fewest yards to opposing tight ends.
Kyler Murray's already locked up with an extension, so nobody's forcing him out of Glendale. But with their front office/coach, plus a history of weird plays on and off the field, it wouldn't be a shocking turn of events to see him in a different uniform next season.
But we've got to get through a few more games, including this one against a brutal defense that's playing at a high level. Trey McBride is going to get his, because he's been unstoppable since Murray's return, but he's the only truly trustworthy Cardinals skill player right now. Could be a really clunky day for them on this side of the ball.
Let me get the Bears to win. They've had their usual meltdowns in recent weeks, but the on-field product has been pretty strong. Good matchup for them, especially at home.
Starts: Justin Fields, Trey McBride
Sits: Cole Kmet
Sleepers: Any Bears Running Back
Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins (-1.5)
Fraud Bowl. Time to find out which of these teams is less capable of winning the big one.
This game being at home is a massive swing for the Dolphins, with Dallas' struggles away from Jerry World being well documented. Tyreek Hill's availability would be another boost for the AFC East leaders. He's currently listed as questionable, finishing the week with two limited practices.
Tua and Jaylen Waddle showed they could make due without the Cheetah against the Jets, which is actually an impressive statement given New York's quality at cornerback. How will Stephon Gilmore hang? Raheem Mostert's been borderline unstoppable too and will definitely be putting the Cowboys' front seven to the test.
Dak Prescott is the polar opposite of Baker Mayfield with his home/away splits, destroying teams in Dallas while barely mustering a touchdown per game on the road. With Jalen Ramsey covering a third of the field, plus a revved up Bradley Chubb getting after him, it's a pretty pessimistic forecast for him. CeeDee Lamb moves around the formations enough to still put up some big numbers, but not expecting much from Michael Gallup or Brandin Cooks.
Tough bunch for Tony Pollard to run into, especially if Dak can't get the passing game going. Pollard will be involved with both, but his inefficiency through the year will probably carry over into this matchup.
Neither of these teams are truly trustworthy, but taking Dallas on the road against decent teams has resulted in many FanDuel "donations" in 2023. Let's not make it anymore. Dolphins win at home.
Starts: Raheem Mostert, Jaylen Waddle, CeeDee Lamb
Sits: Dak Prescott, Brandin Cooks
Sleepers: Miami Defense
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (-6.5)
Some Sunday Night matchup. Admittedly, can't imagine I'll catch much of this one with the Christmas preparations. Fortunately, not thinking much will be missed!
Bailey Zappe has shown enough to continue on as a backup in this league, but he's hard pressed to hang for a whole 60 minutes. Devante Parker may be completely neutralized by Patrick Surtain II, leaving Demario Douglas underneath on some quick hits.
Love Hunter Henry this week though, with Denver giving up the second most yards to tight ends. Henry's already shown a strong connection with Zappe that's sure to continue. Ezekiel Elliott will have a ton of volume against a weak front seven too.
Must win for the Broncos though, which they will not drop at home. Russell Wilson should be able to do enough against this decent defense, while Javonte Williams inefficiently plods away in between pass attempts. It won't be pretty, outside of an incredible Courtland Sutton catch or two, but Denver has to get back on track here.
Starts: Hunter Henry, Ezekiel Elliott, Courtland Sutton
Sits: Devante Parker
Sleepers: Demario Douglas, Mike Gesicki, Jaleel McLaughlin
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) (Monday 12/25)
Patrick Mahomes is 10-1 all-time against the Raiders, with a career passing rating of 113.5 and a 29:3 TD:INT ratio. Take away that one loss and it's as dominant as one can be over an opponent, let alone a divisional one.
Nate Hobbs and Maxx Crosby headline an underrated Vegas defense that should limit a Chiefs offense that's void of talent overall. Isiah Pacheco is set to return from injury, which is a welcome addition for KC. He had two touchdowns the first time these teams showed off. Rashee Rice will continue to stay busy too, averaging 83.5 yards per game over the last month.
Aidan O'Connell's not the least fun backup quarterback to be stuck with either. Having a core of weapons like Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers helps, but hey, good on him for capitalizing. Josh Jacobs has a chance of playing too, but Zamir White played admirably in his absence a week ago. Kansas City has a really good defense though, leading me to believe the Raiders won't be able to regularly sustain drives.
No need to overthink the first of three Christmas games, Chiefs win with relative ease.
Starts: Isiah Pacheco, Rashee Rice
Sits: Aidan O'Connell
Sleepers: Tre Tucker
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-11.5) (Monday 12/25)
A little stinker for background noise during your Christmas dinner.
To call the Eagles desperate would be an understatement. Fresh off a crushing road loss in Seattle on Monday Night Football, they're primed to take their frustration out on an inferior opponent. Enter the G-Men.
Tommy DeVito's honeymoon has seemingly come to an end, though a date against a Swiss cheese secondary will surely put that to the test. Darren Waller looked healthy in his return from IR, adding a threat over the middle of the field that could open some things up on the outside for a subpar receiving core.
Saquon Barkley owned the Eagles early on in his career, but that's faded over their last 3 matchups with inadequate quarterback play. Expecting much of the same Monday, a fat lump of coal in the star running back's stocking.
May not be the only lumps we see on the afternoon. Jalen Hurts has looked terrible passing the ball lately, one area where the Giants' are actually decent defensively. Compound that with the fact that Devonta Smith is likely to sit out and it could be a squirrely day through the air for Philly. New York sucks against the run though, so Hurts should be able to compensate some with his legs.
This is the get right game of get right games for the Eagles. They must win, preferably with authority to provide some holiday solace to their stressed fan base. Look for an inspired performance at the Linc
Starts: AJ Brown, D'Andre Swift
Sits: Saquon Barkley
Sleepers: Boston Scott
Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) (Monday 12/25)
Love that this schedule's managed to give us strong, new Game of the Year candidates over these last few weeks. Week 16's version will take place in Santa Clara, with the top two seeds in the AFC and NFC.
The 49ers have looked like the best team in football since Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams returned from injury after their bye week. Five straight wins, without ever really feeling in danger of defeat; a bona fide freight train. Some would ask the question though: do they know how to win in the face of adversity?
After going from Mr. Irrelevant to MVP candidate, Brock Purdy knows a thing about adversity. The Ravens boast an above average pass defense, with experience against strong receiving tandems, so they should be able to hang with Deebo and Brandon Aiyuk-- to some extent anyway. George Kittle vs. Roquan Smith and/or Kyle Hamilton over the middle should be fun too.
On the flip side, the Ravens have experienced their share of domination through the first 14 weeks of 2023, particularly over NFC teams. Lamar Jackson's 19-1 record in starts against the conference is indicative that it's far from fluky. The Niners can be thrown on some, setting the table for Jackson to wow some with his arm. Always a dart throw on which receiver will be the busiest, but Isaiah Likely seems pretty cemented as a go to guy moving forward.
San Francisco had also been super stingy against the run until recently. Somehow, the Cardinals averaged 7.8 yards a clip versus them just a week ago. If Baltimore can put up anything close to that, it'll open up their offense immensely. The loss of Keaton Mitchell certainly doesn't help that effort, but Gus Edwards and Justice Hill have shown to be up to the task.
Let's end the week with a Christmas upset! I think Gus finds the end zone again while Lamar dazzles under the bright lights. It'll be a high scoring affair with the Ravens unable to completely stymy a talented Niners offense, but Baltimore will pull off the victory late.
Starts: Lamar Jackson, Isaiah Likely, Christian McCaffery
Sits: Odell Beckham Jr
Sleepers: Nelson Agholor
Records on the season:
112-110 ATS
135-87 SU
112-110 O/U
------
@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, clearly, just my opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
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