Fantasy quarterfinals are kicking off for most leagues this weekend. Friendships on the line for some, others have had their dreams dashed long ago. Such is the nature of such a blood thirsty pastime.
But Week 15, here we come. Hoping to get a clearer vision of what the actual playoffs will be looking like after this slate. Kicking off with a game that has virtually no impact on things:
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) (TNF)
Easton Stick vs. Aidan O'Connell, what a way to kick things off.
Like Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen is also set to sit out for LA, leaving a wholly uninspiring group of pass catchers in his place. I'd like to believe this spells a busy day for Austin Ekeler, but he's looked pretty inexplosive in recent weeks, so I'm not sure what he'd do with the extra volume anyway.
The Raiders at least have been playing with this current unit for a few weeks. The results haven't been pretty, but there's some continuity there, which is more than the Chargers will be able to say. O'Connell should have a few chances to make big plays down the field against a weak secondary.
Pretty confident in Las Vegas to pull this one out. They've got just a little more familiarity in their current team structure, plus I think the Chargers have quit at this point. Going through the motions 4 more times and cashing those game checks. Hit the under too.
Starts: Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow
Sits: Easton Stick
Sleepers: Jalen Guyton
Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) (Saturday)
Huge game for both teams Saturday afternoon, as they each try to keep their surprising playoff hopes in tact.
Jake Browning's been a revelation these last 2 weeks in relief of Joe Burrow under center for the Bengals. This'll be his toughest challenge yet, with Minnesota's defense playing at a borderline elite level (11 PPG the last 3 weeks). Not anticipating a massive drop off, but we shouldn't see his record setting completion percentage improving after this one.
Not expecting much from Joe Mixon against this top five run D, though Chase Brown is an interesting flier with his ability to move the ball in the short pass game. Ja'Marr Chase was held in check by Indy after exploding on Jacksonville, curious how his connection will be with his young QB this go round.
Nick Mullens, not Josh Dobbs, will be squaring off opposite of Browning. Maybe it's fond memories from a Kyle Shanahan system, but I've got some confidence Mullens can work in this offense.
Ty Chandler will likely get the start with Alexander Mattison less than 100%, with potential for big volume. Justin Jefferson's status is up in the air, but would surely be welcome back to help the 4th quarterback the Vikings' have trotted out this year. Jordan Addison's a great player, but not sure he's a surefire WR1 just yet.
Something tells me Jake Browning's hot streak comes to an end against a Minnesota defense that's been one of the best in the league of late. Probably won't be a lot of points either, in what should be a wonky one overall.
Starts: TJ Hockenson
Sits: Joe Mixon
Sleepers: Chase Brown, Ty Chandler
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) (Saturday)
The Colts missed a prime opportunity last Sunday to take out a backup quarterback and cement themselves in the wild card chase. They're still sitting at #7, one slot behind a Steelers team they face this week-- meaning there's a lot on the line!
Gardner Minshew's stat sheet looked decent a week ago, but the eye-test told a very different story. The Steelers just got relatively gashed by Bailey Zappe, of all people, so there's hope for a bounce back for Minshew and company. Michael Pittman Jr. is going to stay hot, while Josh Downs and Kylen Granson contribute a bit too.
On the flip side, nothing about Mitch Trubisky has been positive this season. Bad performances, bad turnovers, bad results; just bad vibes all around. And no end in sight! The Colts don't exactly boast a ferocious defense, but they don't need one in this matchup. If they can play solid, fundamental football and avoid giving up any chunk plays, they'll have a chance to win late-- worst case scenario.
As few nice things as I had to say about Pittsburgh, this is the exact type of game they win. On the road, backs against the wall, slight dogs...we've seen this before. That being said, I'll reluctantly take Indy to pull it off. The Steelers are playing such ugly ball right now, can't get on board with them stealing this.
Starts: Michael Pittman Jr., Jaylen Warren
Sits: George Pickens
Sleepers: Kylen Granson, Pat Freiermuth
Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions (-4.5) (Saturday)
Not sure of a unit less trustworthy right now than the Lions defense. They've allowed just under 30 PPG over their last five, fortunately managing to go 3-2 in that span.
Jared Goff hasn't done his part recently to keep Detroit on track, surrendering nine turnovers in his last four games. Denver's defense has been supremely opportunistic during their recent turnaround, meaning Goff needs to be on his A-game when it comes to ball protection.
The Broncos are the worst in the NFL against the run, which does play right into the Lions favor. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are going to be handling the ball early and often, hoping to take advantage and relieve the pressure on their floundering quarterback. Sam LaPorta will likely be the hot hand in the passing game too, with Patrick Surtain II shadowing Amon Ra St. Brown.
Russell Wilson played well against the Chargers last week and gets an even easier matchup here. Detroit can't stop anybody right now, which should lead to some longer drives. Javonte Williams will get plenty of volume, but it'll be the passing game that brings it home for Denver. Courtland Sutton should absolutely find pay dirt for a third straight game.
Feels like another win for the Broncos. The D is playing great ball and Wilson's been pretty mistake free; a perfect recipe for their success. Sneaky under play here too-- I think we'll get really close to that 47.5 line, but not go over.
Starts: Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, Courtland Sutton
Sits: Amon Ra St. Brown
Sleepers: Marvin Mims
Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns (-3.5)
With the Panthers having all but locked in the #1 pick for Chicago, these next four weeks are a live audition for Justin Fields' future employment. The kid has boundless potential, but just hasn't shown enough during his three years to afford the organization the luxury of spending that pick on another position. Especially with Caleb Williams waiting in the wings.
Tough test for him though with Cleveland's defense, especially at home. He'll have the benefit of not facing Grant Delpit or Denzel Ward, which'll make passing at least a little easier. As long as his offensive line can keep Myles Garrett at bay. Look for DJ Moore and Darnell Mooney to at least rack up a good bit of targets.
Joe Flacco is going to be challenged too! The elite quarterback will have his hands full against a Bears D that's allowing just over 18 PPG since the beginning of November. Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt will find running room to be at a premium. David Njoku won't be as easy to locate, nor will Amari Cooper or Elijah Moore-- whoever draws Jaylon Johnson.
Give me the Bears in this one! Justin Fields should be able to improvise with his legs when plays inevitably break down, giving Chicago just enough of an X-factor to pull out what should be a grossly low scoring affair.
Starts: Justin Fields
Sits: Elijah Moore, Jerome Ford
Sleepers: Bears Defense
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-3.5)
Two teams sitting at 6-7, currently smack in the middle of playoff seeding. The state of the NFC these days...
With how abysmal the NFC South has been, this isn't necessarily a must win for Tampa Bay, but it's still one they want to leave with. Baker Mayfield's splits are surprisingly very favorable to play on the road, so we like him to put a few in the end zone. Rachaad White's going to steadily get his volume too. The kid's been a workhorse on this two game win streak, no need to shy away from it.
Can Mike Evans get back on track? What a disappointing performance against Atlanta, posting just 1 catch for 8 yards. Given Mayfield's penchant for throwing touchdowns away from home, hammer his any time touchdown.
Green Bay is in more of a must win mode, currently in the final wildcard slot with minimal chance of catching Detroit for the division. Jordan Love's heater came to an abrupt end last Monday against the Giants, putting more pressure on him here to not drop another game here as favorites. Tampa's secondary is up and down, so there's a chance he can redeem himself.
Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks' availability are things to monitor for the Packers. They're generally good for a few big plays a game when they're in. If not, Romeo Doubs and rookie hotshot Jayden Reed will be busy. Don't expect much from the run game.
On the pod Wednesday, my gut was telling me that Baker falls short in his conquest to win consecutive games. Then I took the deep dive into those road splits...and I'm a bit torn. Give me Tampa to cover at least at +3.5
Starts: Mike Evans, Baker Mayfield, Jayden Reed
Sits: AJ Dillon
Sleepers: Trey Palmer
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
Damn shame we likely will not be seeing CJ Stroud square off versus fellow rookie Will Levis here. Instead, Davis Mills. Can hardly contain my enthusiasm.
Nico Collins won't be playing, nor Tank Dell. The run game is subpar. Huge swing of emotion for Houston over the last month, from the highest of highs to...this. Long term view though, looking very bright.
Derrick Henry should be able to bang up the Texans front seven, buying more time throughout the game for Levis to find Deandre Hopkins and Co. down the field. Derek Stingley's my guy, so it'll be interesting to see how he fares versus Nuk. Bad defense against tight ends too, so look for Okonkwo to sneak some burn in.
Titans, shouldn't be with too much difficulty either. Probably the under too, if I had to choose
Starts: Derrick Henry, Chigoziem Okonkwo
Sits: Devin Singletary
Sleepers: Robert Woods
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-9.5)
Hungry dog sniffing around. Just how high are these Jets riding after their demolition of Houston last week? It took a half to warm up, but the product was really sharp when it did.
Zach Wilson was a huge part of that offensive explosion, finding Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall regularly as they scored on six straight drives. Miami's a little stiffer competition, so he'll need to stay on his P's and Q's, but the road map to victory has seemingly been discovered. Wouldn't be completely shocked to see Jalen Ramsey walk away with a pick Sunday.
But how many will Tua throw? The Dolphins' QB is 4-0 against the Jets all time, but has thrown 5 interceptions during that span. With how good Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed are playing, plus a less-than 100% Tyreek Hill, it could be tougher sledding than he's used to through the air.
For as good as New York is against the pass, they're pretty exploitable on the ground. That spells a big day for Raheem Mostert, and probably Devon Achane too, especially if the game gets out of hand.
Something deep in my core is screaming Jets to me. Call me crazy, that's fine, but it just feels like a game where Tua folds against a supremely talented secondary when his best weapons get neutralized. Not going to be throwing it on every parlay now, but let's go J-E-T-S and the under!
Starts: Raheem Mostert, Garrett Wilson
Sits: Tua Tagovailoa
Sleepers: Jeremy Ruckert
Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) at New England Patriots
Unprecedented position for Kansas City, in the midst of a slide of performance and emotions over their last two. If ever there was a get right game...
Their defense alone should be able to win this against a Bailey Zappe led offense. He played really well last Thursday for a half against the Steelers before fading late. Given their level of frustration and desperation, don't expect this Chiefs' unit to be so generous. Grim outlook for all New England skill players.
Still not going to get close to sold on KC's offense though, especially with Isiah Pacheco sidelined once again. If the Patriots do one thing well, it's defend the tight end, so not expecting a boom from Travis Kelce. No wideout strikes any type of fear into me. Even Jerick McKinnon can't find a way to cover 21.5 freaking receiving yards for me. Who's going to step up on this side of the ball?
Not a fun game, but Kansas City should do everything in their power to bury this inferior opponent and get back on track.
Starts: Kansas City Defense, Ezekiel Elliott
Sits: Every Patriots WR
Sleepers: Skyy Moore
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-6.5)
Complete head scratcher of a line here. When does Tommy DeVito get his roses? Has Vegas watched these New Orleans Saints recently? I mean, they killed the Panthers, but that's not saying anything at all. Very hot dog here.
Saquon Barkley should be able to find some wiggle room on the ground, opening up New York's offense as a whole for their young quarterback. Brian Daboll isn't going to ask him to do a lot, but when he does, there should be some viable opportunities. Look for Wan'Dale Robinson to stay productive.
Is it crazy to say, that I would confidently take Tommy DeVito over Derek Carr as my starting quarterback? It seems like the latter's best days are far behind him, while his health is dwindling behind a subpar offensive line. It's not fun and rarely exciting. And Jameis Winston must suck to not be able to earn a non-injury related look under center.
Chris Olave is up in the air too, while it appears he's leaning toward playing. His absence would be a huge loss for the Saints. Look for Alvin Kamara to rack up 15-20 total touches.
G-Men! G-Men! The defense is playing well and the offense is in a rhythm; two things I cannot say at all about New Orleans. Road dogs, steal a dub.
Starts: Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, Wan'Dale Robinson
Sits: Derek Carr
Sleepers: Jaylin Hyatt, Jamaal Williams
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers
Sad excuse for a football game. It's getting late in the season, so I can't complain too much about having football, but this is a game that can be passed on.
Desmond Ridder will probably struggle against an okay-at-times Panthers defense. Bryce Young will struggle because that's the one thing he has consistently done this season.
Bijan Robinson will make a splash play or two, while getting stonewalled a bunch of other times. Adam Thielen will have a few screen passes skip in at his feet, or sail harmlessly overhead to the sideline.
Really no need or desire to dive any deeper. Falcons win, because all Carolina does is lose.
Starts: Bijan Robinson, Drake London
Sits: Kyle Pitts
Sleepers: Jonathan Mingo
Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)
Sneaky fun one out West in the middle of your Sunday.
Washington is coming off of a bye, so they should at least rejuvenated. Motivation has been the bigger issue in recent weeks for the team, with both sides of the ball playing terribly, defensive coordinator Jack del Rio getting fired, the usual influx of negative press surrounding the DC franchise. Can't blame them for wanting to fast forward to mid-January.
The Rams boast a decent pass D, so we're going to get a good feel for where Sam Howell's currently at. Earlier in the season, he was playing at a really high level, despite many shortcomings elsewhere on the team. He's stooped down to that standard of poor play these last two weeks, throwing for 2 interceptions and no scores, while accounting for just 25 points. A storyline to follow.
He'll be without top back Brian Robinson, who's set to miss this one with a hamstring injury. Antonio Gibson will likely be very involved, as could Chris Rodriguez. LA is bad against tight ends too, so don't hate a Logan Thomas play.
LA's coming off a tough loss on the road in Baltimore, where Matthew Stafford and the entire offense shined. Should be a script they can run back against a Commanders defense that's atrocious against the pass. Any Rams receiver should be in play, as should Stafford. And Kyren Williams has basically ascended to unbenchable; the man is a monster.
Chalky, but Rams take it at home. The over's very, very alive too
Starts: Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Antonio Gibson
Sits: Jahan Dotson
Sleepers: Chris Rodriguez, Logan Thomas
San Francisco 49ers (-13.5) at Arizona Cardinals
The 49ers play Baltimore next week, so this could be a look ahead, trap of sorts. In theory.
The reality is that the Niners are damn near unstoppable right now. Jonathan Gannon's squad ain't the team to do it either. It might be somewhat tight early, especially if Kyler Murray comes out slinging, but it's just too much firepower for the Cards to keep up with.
Take the over, take San Francisco to win. Can't put my life on a cover with that look ahead thought in the back of my head though.
Starts: Your Core Four 49ers Skill Players, Hollywood Brown
Sits: James Conner
Sleepers: Greg Dortch (or Michael Wilson if he's active)
Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
Game of the Week. Must watch TV here.
The Bills, playing as well they have maybe all season, host one of the few teams that may be hotter. Fortunately for them, the Cowboys don't play quite as well on the road as they do in Jerry World. Josh Allen is going to have to be meticulous and avoid mistakes against an opportunistic defense.
Getting James Cook will be helpful to that cause. The second year back's been awesome in the run and pass game recently-- clearly a correlation to their success. Ken Dorsey never seemed to be able to figure that out. Stephon on Stefon will provide some good battles; don't be surprised to see Allen look toward his secondary receivers and Dalton Kincaid a little more frequently.
Words I never thought I'd say, at least not this season: Dak Prescott's currently my MVP. Can he play at an MVP level though in a game with massive implications? On the road, on a crisp 36 degree night? I have a few reservations, admittedly.
But this feels like a fireworks game, and if so, Dak's going to be a big part of it. CeeDee Lamb will be as productive as usual. I prefer Tony Pollard to pick up his yardage in the pass game, rather than on the ground. Jake Ferguson will probably pop open in the end zone at some point, without Matt Milano to deal with.
Hit the over, pop this on at 4:25 (the Niners and Rams games aren't really worth watching by comparison) and watch the Bills, with their season on the line, pull out another hard fought win.
Starts: Dalton Kincaid, Tony Pollard
Sits: Brandin Cooks
Sleepers: Khalil Shakir
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars were riding so, so high three weeks ago. They'd just gutted out a massive divisional win over the Texans, were 8-4 overall, with tie breakers, and a team that looked like it was rounding into form. All was right in Duval.
Fast forward two weeks. They've given up 32.5 PPG to Jake Browning and Joe Flacco. Trevor Lawrence is suffering through an ankle sprain, Christian Kirk's on IR, and top corner Tyson Campbell is banged up too. A loss Sunday night ties them record-wise with the Indianapolis Colts atop the AFC South. Not For Long, eh?
Lawrence should be a relative nonfactor against a tough Ravens secondary, especially if Kyle Hamilton is able to suit up. If he was 100%, it'd be a slightly different story, but it doesn't feel like he's going to pose much of a vertical threat. Travis Etienne definitely could make some noise though against a front seven that really struggled last week versus Kyren Williams.
Then there's Lamar Jackson. It looks different every week, but he's consistently put Baltimore in position to win. This is a big opportunity for him to help them really firm up the top seed in the AFC. The Jags generally defend the run well, so I think this game's going to come down to how well he plays.
And he's going to dice these Jacksonville corners. OBJ, Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman should all divvy up a fair bit of targets, usually with room to run after the catch. Isaiah Likely is in store for another big day too. It's a dart throw, but these Ravens pass catchers should ball.
Sunday Night Football with fireworks, that's what LJ8's going to bring to America tonight. Ravens win and cover, establishing themselves as the team to beat in the AFC.
Starts: Keaton Mitchell, Isaiah Likely, Travis Etienne
Sits: Trevor Lawrence
Sleepers: Justice Hill, Parker Washington
Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Cue the Tom Petty, because Monday night features two teams that are free fallin'.
In reality, not so much for Philly. Despite two straight ugly losses, they're still 10-3 overall, just one San Francisco slip up from being back atop the NFC. But best believe it feels like Armageddon for their fans. Seattle's actually lost 5 straight, going from 6-2 to 6-7 in the blink of an eye. It was fun while it lasted Geno.
Seems like the Seahawks may get their starting quarterback back for this Monday night showdown, for better or worse with how decent Drew Lock looked last week. The Eagles can't stop the pass at all, so there should be big plays to be had. Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet won't be quite as fruitful in the ground game.
Jalen Hurts and Co. will also put up big numbers against a Seahawks secondary that's allowed some big days for opposing wideouts. Devon Witherspoon may sit out too, which would only weaken an iffy bunch. AJ Brown and Devonta Smith are going to eat; Dallas Goedert should contribute too.
Seattle's played inspired, back-against-the-wall type football over the last two weeks, but the results have been frustratingly the same. Unfortunately, expecting much of the same Monday night. Philadelphia gets back on track, while the over cashes.
Starts: DK Metcalf, Devonta Smith, AJ Brown
Sits: Kenneth Walker
Sleepers: Colby Parkinson
Records on the season:
102-104 ATS
126-80 SU
106-100 O/U
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, clearly, just my opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
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