NFL Week 14 Preview, Predictions and Fantasy

Week 14...a higher number to dread typing each week. But the increased action, the tension, the rising stakes! So much to tune in for today, even in some of the stinkers. Thanks week 13 for setting this up.

Interesting slate ahead though, featuring a some rivalries, a few win or go home games, plus a 2'fer on Monday night? A pretty bad one at that. One day soon, that flex will is coming.

Tough week to pick though, here's our thoughts on all fifteen matchups


New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) (TNF)

Long list of things I could be doing with my Thursday night instead of watching this game. I'll probably tune in for a little because it's conveniently on Amazon Prime, but the convenience is about the only selling point.

Mitch Trubisky vs. Bailey Zappe though...or Malik Cunningham? Maybe a sprinkle of Mac Jones in there for old times sake? For a team well within the playoff hunt, I'm not sure how Steelers fans are getting juiced up for this game.

Expect a lot of running the ball, a lot. Rhamondre Stevenson's out, so Zeke is in line to be a workhorse. Najee Harris will have his usual split duty with Jaylen Warren, alleviating whatever pressure they can off of their sad backup quarterback. But yeah, not much to hype up.

Over/under for this game is at a hilarious 29.5. May never see lower than that again in the NFL. I'll take it, for novelty if nothing else. Pittsburgh can't score, while the Patriots almost literally cannot put points up. Steelers should win too, but far from a lock to cover.


Starts: Ezekiel Elliott, Jaylen Warren

Sits: Every New England pass catcher

Sleepers: Mike Gesicki


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)

Believe it or not, this is a massive game for the NFC South. The 5-7 Bucs squaring off against the 6-6 Falcons, in a heavyweight bout, with the division title in the balance. Whoever ends up as the top wildcard team is going to have a cakewalk.

But that's a ways away! This Sunday, Baker in the ATL, trying to carry over what minimal momentum they mustered in their win over Carolina. Mike Evans is obviously going to be busy, but will we get to see some Chris Godwin this week? The usually steady receiver is coming off a catchless performance and now amid reports that his wife calling out Tampa's coaches for "blatantly lying about his injuries." Sticky situation, Todd Bowles likely on the way out regardless.


Rachaad White's really emerged as a vital piece of this offense, posting 90 or more total yards in 6 of their last 7. He should be just as involved here, albeit against a defense that's rounding back into competent form.

Can Desmond Ridder do enough to get it done though? He barely could in the Meadowlands against the Tim Boyle-Trevor Siemian tandem, leaving me none too optimistic for this week. But Drake London will be open enough of the time. The Bucs secondary wasn't great against big-body Johnathan Mingo, leading one to believe the more talented London will be able to shine as well.

Will Bijan? Tampa's run D isn't what it's been in past seasons, but they're a stout bunch up front. The rookie's been hot and cold, particularly on the ground, so it's hard to get too high on him in this matchup.

Thinking the Bucs pull it off. I give the coaching edge to Atlanta, as well as the running backs and secondary. But everything else is leaning toward Tampa, so let's take the road dogs to slog down the NFC South standings a little more.


Starts: Mike Evans, Rachaad White, Drake London

Sits: Chris Godwin

Sleepers: Jonnu Smith


Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Chicago Bears

Wide-open divisional matchup here, between the defenseless Lions and the roller coaster that is the Bears. A number of different directions this game can, and likely will, take. 

Which Jared Goff shows up? The one that peppers Sam LaPorta and Amon Ra St. Brown at will, or the turnover machine that's adept at making the final score respectable? With how Chicago's defense has been playing lately, definitely a chance we see the former. Jaylon Johnson will definitely challenge St. Brown, providing some entertaining battles on the outside. Their stingy front seven will make sledding tough for Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery too.

Same iteration of the question can be thrown back at the Bears though: what Justin Fields are we going to get? When the kid's on, he's got one of the highest ceilings of any quarterback in the league, but when he's off, it's some third string type shit. Not many more prime matchups then against this flailing defense right now. 

DJ Moore should have a big day, as should Fields on the ground. With D'Onta Foreman cleared, I'm curious who'll take the lead role in this backfield. Something tells me him and Khalil Herbert will split the early downs while Roschon Johnson handles the third down duties.

Talked about it on the show...still kind of feeling it. Thinking the Bears pull off the upset here, sounding the alarms for the formerly dominant Lions. 


Starts: DJ Moore, Justin Fields

Sits: Jared Goff

Sleepers: Roschon Johnson


Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5)

Interesting watching this line shift from Indy to Cincy as the week's gone along. One strong performance by Jake Browning's put the whole world on notice it seems.

For what it's worth, the man was absolutely spectacular last Monday night, torching the Jags defense to the tune of 34 points. Wouldn't describe the Colts D as many better than Jacksonville's, so there's at least some possibility of an encore.

Joe Mixon and Chase Brown running the way they did would go a long way for the young QB. Mixon ran with force, while Brown brought the speed last week, and the results were ideal. The run game clearly opened up the passing game too, as we saw Browning pushing it down the field more so as things progressed. It's a winning formula they'll try to replicate.

Gardner Minshew and company have also been moving the ball well. Alec Pierce made a big splash last week, while Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs have been mainstays in the passing game. All three should have some chances against this secondary. And while Zack Moss isn't Jonathan Taylor, he's shown us this year that he can get it done as the RB1. Look for him to be productive against this iffy run D.

This line's an overreaction to Jake Browning's big day. While I don't think he's going to completely crash back to Earth, at least not this week, I just can't believe he's good for 30+ points on back to back weeks. Give me Indianapolis to stay undefeated on the road.

 

Starts: Zack Moss, Michael Pittman Jr., Ja'Marr Chase

Sits: Tee Higgins

Sleepers: Kylen Granson, Drew Sample


Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)

Hard to get a feel for this game until we know what's happening with Trevor Lawrence. It wouldn't be shocking if he doesn't end up playing, giving up CJ Beathard vs. either Joe Flacco or Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Forgive my lack of enthusiasm.

The Browns will give up some rushing yards, but will Travis Etienne be at 100% to take advantage? It was clear last week that the coaching staff wasn't comfortable letting him shoulder his usual load. Parker Washington is an interesting play in Christian Kirk's absence.

Amari Cooper cleared concussion protocol for Cleveland, which'll help whoever is under center. Jacksonville had been great against the run until last Monday before the Bengals crushed them on the ground. You have to think correcting that issue was a priority this week.

Hard to make any of this affirmative until we get Lawrence's status, but I think I'd lean toward Cleveland in the event he doesn't play. Not positive that him playing at 50% would move my needle much on the issue either. 


Starts: Travis Etienne

Sits: Kareem Hunt, Evan Engram

Sleepers: Parker Washington


Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-5.5)

I know it's the Panthers, but I'm not sure the New Orleans Saints should be five point favorites over anybody right now. Derek Carr might not play and they might not be better if he does. Jameis didn't look good in relief last week, a trend that'd likely continue if he starts here. The Panthers' defense isn't that bad.

Their offense is though, rest assured. Bryce Young might not be that good, has no offensive line and no receivers. Chuba Hubbard's shown up lately, which hasn't hurt them move the ball a little. Emphasis on a little. Thoughts out to Hayden Hurst too, currently experiencing effects from post-traumatic amnesia. Scary reality the NFL can present.

Back to the game though, not going to be entertaining. I think the Panthers cover but fail to win, once again.


Starts: Alvin Kamara, Chuba Hubbard

Sits: Chris Olave

Sleepers: Taysom Hill


Houston Texans (-3.5) at New York Jets

Quite possibly my favorite game of the 1 PM slate. No, this one isn't going to be any type of back and forth, but I'm genuinely curious to watch CJ Stroud in action against this top flight secondary. The rookie has been sensational this season, but Sauce Gardner and Co. aren't going to be welcoming him to the Meadowlands with any parade. 

Being down Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz won't help the young QB. Dell, also a rookie, had been a regular contributor of big plays this season. His presence will surely be missed. Look for upticks in targets for Nico Collins and Brevin Jordan with these two absent. Devin Singletary and/or Dameon Pierce are viable plays too.

Then we move over to our other, former #2 quarterback: the highly less-touted, fresh off the bench, cougar hunting Zach Wilson. I think it became consensual over the last two weeks that he is the Jets best chance at winning, as crazy a proposition as that may be. And while Wilson is occasionally good for a competent showing, this week's a tough draw against a young, improving Texans defense. Looking for Derek Stingley Jr. to continue his interception streak.

Breece Hall will, unsurprisingly, find running room scarce in his attempt to help matters. The second year back's always a threat to pop off a big one, but Houston's front seven has been one of the top units against running backs. This crappy Jets' offensive line won't do much to change that. 

Something tells me, as home dogs, that New York finds a way to cover here. Can't take them to win, but they have a defense really catered to what the Texans like to do, which'll help keep things close. But Houston gets another nice win to continue their playoff push.


Starts: Brevin Jordan, Tyler Conklin, Texans defense

Sits: Garrett Wilson

Sleepers: Dameon Pierce


Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)

Gonna be a wet one in Charm City! The Ravens come off a well timed bye to face a Rams team on a mini surge. A lot on the line for both teams-- with Baltimore trying to keep pace in the race for the AFC #1 seed and LA attempting to fortify their wildcard spot.

For being such underdogs, the Rams offer up plenty of problems for opposing teams. Matthew Stafford isn't what he used to be, but he's still an increasingly rare starting caliber quarterback in this league, loaded with weapons. 

Cooper Kupp will probably breakout again at some point, but Puka Nacua's picked up the slack in the meantime. Fortunately for Baltimore, Marlon Humphrey practiced all week, which is a huge addition to their defense. Brandon Stephens will matchup against whoever Humphrey doesn't draw, in what should be some fun back and forth action on the perimeter.

Can't sleep on Kyren Williams either. The running back's been a star for this offense, in the run and pass game. Best believe Roquan Smith's been preparing hard for that assignment.

Lamar Jackson doesn't lose when he starts against NFC teams. 18-1 in his career, with a 64% and 29:7 TD:INT ratio. It's not fair. And while the Rams have the talent to make him work for it, some things just cosmically work against you. Feeling a good game for Isaiah Likely, with LA not guarding the position well.

Behind Lamar is the three-headed monster of Gus Edwards, Keaton Mitchell and Justice Hill. Expect the Gus to be the workhorse, while the latter two provide the change of pace. The Rams give up the fewest receiving yards in the league to running backs, so not anticipating any big days from these three in the passing department-- lowering Mitchell's ceiling the most.

Was surprised to see John Harbaugh's 9-7 record off a bye for his career, it feels like it's higher than that. Regardless, this one came at a crucial time and the Ravens are poised to take down a weak AFC. Los Angeles won't get in their way, nor cover, adding another impressive performance to Jackson's resume.


Starts: Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards

Sits: Tyler Higbee

Sleepers: Isaiah Likely


Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

Really tough read here, fitting that this one's going down in Las Vegas. Josh Dobbs is the sweetheart of the 2023 NFL season, but has the Passtronaut come back to Earth? He was atrocious in his last outing, throwing 4 interceptions against an admittedly strong Bears D. It's a trend that's seemingly followed him everywhere: come on strong, play decently for a little, bottom out. Minnesota is hoping they haven't reached the final stage this quickly.

Getting Justin Jefferson back in the mix will help substantially. Jordan Addison will face easier coverage, the middle of the field will be more open for TJ Hockenson. Plus an all-world talent to just chuck the ball up to, when in doubt. Will be curious to see if Mattison dominates Ty Chandler in the carries department again as well.

Davante Adams will appreciate seeing a team that he used to square off against twice annually. Granted, with different team/quarterback, but he's averaged 113.7 YPG against the Vikes in his last six games against them, scoring eight times in that span. You've got to think he's going into this game ready to cook. Aidan O'Connell's just got to get him the ball. 

Don't care for Josh Jacobs much at all in this one, at least on the ground. He'll probably end up adding some value in the short pass game, and you likely don't have a better option on your bench, but Minnesota's been good at clogging up run lanes. 

A little more on the line for the Vikings, so they get it done. Kevin O'Donnell's just a little more seasoned then Antonio Pierce and showed last year that he can win some close games. Expect just that in this Sin City showdown. 


Starts: Jordan Addison

Sits: Josh Jacobs

Sleepers: Ty Chandler


Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-12.5)

These division rivals played two weeks ago, in what I predicted would be a woodshed game of sorts. Well, a 31-13 49er win with no offensive touchdowns allowed indicates that I hit the nail on the head, and that was played in Seattle. 

This time, we're in Santa Clara. Geno Smith's even more banged up. The Niners are riding higher than Butters' during his first cheesing experience. Literally, the only thing the Seahawks have in their corner is their desperation.

This Niners team smells desperation and crushes it. Look for them to put another nail in Seattle's coffin, covering the spread and the over.


Starts: 49ers skill players

Sits: Kenneth Walker, Zach Charbonnet

Sleepers: Jaxon Smith-Njigba


Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)

Any other week, this would be the top bill on the docket, but we'll get to that game soon enough. Prime AFC matchup though, with a lot on the line for both sides. 

It's hard to get pumped up to watch the Chiefs play offense. Patrick Mahomes is still the best in the league, but outside of Travis Kelce, he's got dog shit to work with. The results have spoken for themselves. And now that Isiah Pacheco is set to sit out with a shoulder injury, he loses his best weapon in the backfield. Can #15 play hero ball?

We know the quarterback opposite of him is game. Josh Allen loves infusing chaos into football games, which has been more of a burden on the Bills this year than in previous. Ken Dorsey was fired a few weeks ago, so the jury remains out on just how much of the problem he was, but regardless, it's consistent with the Josh Allen we've always known since coming into the league. Very good, very exciting, but will go tic for tac between premier moments and boneheaded plays.

Steve Spagnuolo is going to have a game plan in place for Allen. Look for them to go above and beyond to take away Stefon Diggs and Dalton Kincaid, forcing him to make plays with Gabriel Davis and Khalil Shakir. Easier said than done, but a task the Bills' QB has been up to before. James Cook getting going on the ground would go a long way too, forcing the defense to stay honest.

Pedigree vs. necessity. Andy Reid and the Chiefs have built a legacy on winning games like this, particularly over Buffalo. But the Bills are 6-6, and if ever there was a must-win, this is it. Really difficult to overlook that level of desperation, especially with a Josh Allen at the helm. I'm settling on this decision literally as I type this sentence: Buffalo victory.


Starts: James Cook

Sits: Dalton Kincaid

Sleepers: Jerick McKinnon


Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)

If anyone has a confident read on this AFC West affair, feel free to send it my way, because I hate it. It's impossible to feel inspired in this Chargers team after whatever it was they put out last week against the Patriots. But they're at home, for whatever that's worth, and do have enough talent to make them a scrappy play.

Justin Herbert's been pretty pedestrian in the first season of his five year mega contract, a pretty damning fact for the current coaching staff. Sure, there's some injuries, but that's any team-- and particularly the Chargers at that. He should be playing at a higher level. Patrick Surtain II will be less than 100%, which should help Keenan Allen find space at least. But Herbert needs to find some secondary options.

Perhaps Austin Ekeler? Reports this week were that the back was set to cede carries to Joshua Kelley due to lack of productivity. An odd switch to a guy averaging 3.1 YPC over the last month and a half. That's the state of this run game though. With no other pass catcher wanting to fill Mike Williams' shoes, maybe the versatile back can get some play in the slot. Don't hold your breath fantasy owners.

Russell Wilson was due for a tough game, but Broncos fans are hopeful it's a road block not a regression. Los Angeles' secondary will offer a much easier task for the quarterback to bounce back with. Love Courtland Sutton to find the end zone once again this week against a defense that loves letting receivers score. Javonte Williams should get a ton of volume too.

My heart says LA, but my head says go Denver. This feels more like a last push for the Chargers, rather than embracing the role as spoiler. As such, they'll appropriately do something stupid to jumble their chances late. Broncos win on the road to stay in the hunt.


Starts: Courtland Sutton, Keenan Allen

Sits: Justin Herbert

Sleepers: Donald Parham


Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)

That game of the week we mentioned earlier, here we are! NFC East supremacy on the line, down in the Big D. Some must watch TV for your Sunday night.

Dak Prescott played at an MVP level during the month of November, throwing for 319 YPG and 16 touchdowns to just 1 pick. He's shined at home too, making this even more of a smash spot for the quarterback. CeeDee Lamb's been his go-to guy, and should be once again as they torch a fading Eagles' secondary. 

After last week's spanking at the hands of the 49ers, Jalen Hurts and company will be more than motivated to keep up. AJ Brown has to be licking his chops after watching what DK Metcalf just did to the Cowboys' cornerbacks, he'll surely find pay dirt in this high octane matchup. 

However, the Eagles need to balance the offense with an actual running game. The whole running back room was a nonfactor against San Fran, ultimately shutting down the passing game. Dallas boasts a pretty stingy rush defense of their own, which makes this something to keep an eye on.

Feels like a classic, classic let down spot by Dak here. I've seen this song and dance so many times in his short career. However...Philadelphia's pass D is ass right now. There's no way they contain #4. Hammer the over here, set at an approachable 51.5, and watch the Cowboys make their way to the top of the division. 


Starts: CeeDee Lamb, Dak Prescott, AJ Brown

Sits: D'Andre Swift

Sleepers: Michael Gallup


Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (-13.5) (MNF)

Titans: 0-5 on the road. Dolphins: 6-0 at home. That about sums it up to me.

Tyreek Hill should have a big day, as usual. Jaylen Waddle will likely get in on the mix too. Not as high of expectations for Raheem Mostert and Devon Achane, but the game script will ultimately tilt in their favor. Tua should have no trouble moving the ball through the air though.

Will Levis has made a believer of me, but hate this matchup for him. Jalen Ramsey is going to pick him at least once while targeting Deandre Hopkins, in a late "welcome to the league" gift. Derrick Henry is cleared from a concussion, which gives the Titans an outside chance at least, especially if they can control the clock. But he's not going to be that crucial of a difference maker.

Dolphins win and cover, lighting up a weak secondary.


Starts: Dolphins receivers

Sits: Titans receivers

Sleepers: Ty'Jae Spears


Green Bay Packers (-6.5) at New York Giants (Also MNF)

Not sure what the selling line was ever going to be for this game on prime time, but here we are! Jordan Love's been playing some excellent football of late, will be interested to see how he fares against a pretty underrated Giants' pass defense. With no Christian Watson, expect Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed to be involved, but don't forget Dontayvion Wicks. Love likes looking to him a couple times a game for big plays.

Seems like Aaron Jones will be back also, for whatever that's worth. He's been pretty underwhelming for much of the year, on top of injury issues. AJ Dillon's actually been viable these last few weeks too, so thinking we'll see a pretty even work split as they ease Jones back in.

Tommy DeVito's definitely earned this spot. Not believing he's any kind of long-term solution, but let the kid set himself up as a backup for the next decade. The Packers defense is going to test him, playing up to their potential over the last month. Will he be able to make a few big plays to extend drives?

Saquon Barkley will be public enemy #1 for Green Bay, knowing damn well this Giants offense will go as far as he carries them. Quay Walker is doubtful, which helps Barkley's forecast, but the Packers have fared fine without him recently. A ton of volume incoming, but modest productivity for the star back.

Honestly, not sleeping on the G-Men at all-- this is a very winnable spot for them. But something tells me we're witnessing the emergence, in some capacity or another, of Jordan Love as a competent QB in this league. If that's the case, this isn't one they can drop on their push for a wild card slot. Cheeseheads get it done on the road!


Starts: Jayden Reed, AJ Dillon

Sits: Aaron Jones

Sleepers: Dontayvion Wicks



Records on the season:

96-95 ATS

116-75 SU

100-91 O/U


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@Choppinglines

*This is not gambling advice, clearly, just my opinions. Consider at your own risk

*I own no rights to any images found in this blog

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