Into the final third of the season we go...feels like just yesterday we were debating the exact halfway point in this 17 game slate. And now, lucky number 13 is upon us. Fantasy playoffs are approaching, time to hit the big parlays are running out! Time to put on our big boy pants and win some money.
Here's what we're thinking this week:
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)
The Seahawks are currently in a death spiral. After Thursday night, it'll be picking up more centripetal motion than a Faith Hill chorus. Going to Jerry World where the Cowboys have not only won 13 straight, but generally demolished opponents in the process, will not be a challenge they're up to.
Geno struggles against good defenses that play a lot of man...so group's like Dallas. He'll be without lead back Kenneth Walker once again, but I don't think that'll matter. Seattle's offense is going to be painful to watch.
On the other hand, Dak should be locked and loaded to defend his home soil once again. The Seahawks have some talented guys on defense, but they're going to be logging a ton of snaps with their inability to drive the ball. I don't expect crazy days from CeeDee Lamb or Brandin Cooks, but they should be able to make plays as needed to get the win.
Love Tony Pollard here though. Seattle can be run on and allow the 6th most receiving yards to backs in the NFL. The three-down back should be busy all evening.
Dallas with ease here, continuing the win streak and solidifying themselves as the 5 seed. Liking the over too
Starts: Tony Pollard
Sits: Geno Smith, DK Metcalf
Sleepers: Rico Dowdle, Noah Fant
Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) at Tennessee Titans
Not much left for the Titans this season but to play spoilers. They can start this week against their division rivals, who suddenly find themselves sitting in the final wildcard position. The Colts are in the midst of a three game win streak, boosting their record to 6-5. Those wins were against the Bucs, Patriots and Panthers though, so take it with a grain of salt.
Gardner Minshew's connection with Michael Pittman Jr. was supreme in the month of November, with the wideout averaging 9 catches and 85 yards per game. Tennessee has a bottom ten pass D, potentially priming MPJ for another big day. Josh Downs should have his moments as well.
Jonathan Taylor was finally starting to cook, then he goes and jacks his thumb up. Incredibly disappointing for Indianapolis fans. Fortunately, Zack Moss has played very well when thrusted into the RB1 role. Unfortunately, the Titans are a pretty stingy bunch to run on. If he does produce, it'll likely be in the short pass game.
Definitely a believer, at least semi, in Will Levis. But he's been a little too spotty, plus the Colts are pretty good against the pass. He should make a couple of plays downfield, but not regularly enough to sustain multiple drives.
Unless, Derrick Henry can get going. He'd owned Indy for roughly half a decade before getting stifled in their week five showdown. He hasn't looked much more explosive since, making me reluctant to say he'll pop off in a positive matchup. But history suggests it's not impossible.
Too much on the line for the Colts to lose this game. If it comes down to nothing else, Indy plays better defense than the Titans play offense. Minshew and company should be able to do their part too though.
Starts: Michael Pittman Jr., Derrick Henry
Sits: Zack Moss, Deandre Hopkins
Sleepers: Chigoziem Okonkwo
Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) at New England Patriots
There's no way that the Chargers lose this game...there's just no way. Bailey Zappe vs. Justin Herbert? The general talent differential between the rosters. It's difficult to envision.
But it is the Chargers, so don't put anything past them. With his career very much on the line, expect Brandon Staley to pull out all the stops against an inferior opponent. The offense should be more productive than they were last week against Baltimore, while the defense could have a real get right opportunity against Zappe. Can they seize it?
Or will it be Mr. Zappe, taking the reins against a defensive group that can't stop anybody?! Will big days for Demario Douglas and Devante Parker help spark a home upset, bringing Zappe Hour back to Foxborough?
Highly doubt it, this is an audition for Dean Spanos' Chargers to court Bill Belichick this offseason. LA wins handily, against the worst Patriots team in that last 25+ years.
Starts: Keenan Allen, Justin Herbert
Sits: Rhamondre Stevenson
Sleepers: Hunter Henry
Detroit Lions (-4.5) at New Orleans Saints
If ever there was a game for the Lions defense to tune some things up, this would be it. Jared Goff's recent turnover frenzy hasn't always afforded them ideal fields to defend, but they're still allowing 31 PPG over the last three. That's only going to get you so far in the NFL.
The Saints are rolling a putrid offense out onto the field each week, fresh off of getting thoroughly handled by Atlanta. Derek Carr is wholly uninspiring, more then content to just dump the ball off and hope for the best. Great for Alvin Kamara PPR owners, not so much for actual offensive production. He could be without his top 3 wideouts this weekend too, which would only add to a tall task. Keep an eye on that.
The only reason Detroit's offense has been sputtering of late is due to Goff's miscues with the ball. Outside of that, Amon Ra St. Brown is still a top receiver in the league, while Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery continue to batter front sevens. This isn't a fun group for any team to play against, especially without Marshon Lattimore. If they can play clean, they should move the ball with relative ease.
Lost all confidence in New Orleans after that shit performance they put together down in Atlanta last week. I like the Lions to get some things straight this week, control the clock and improve to 5-1 on the road.
Starts: Amon Ra St. Brown, Alvin Kamara
Sits: Derek Carr
Sleepers: Juwan Johnson
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at New York Jets
Picturing a world where Desmond Ridder can go on the road and lead the Falcons to conquer a top tier Jets defense...difficult mental assignment.
Bijan Robinson should be able to rumble against a front seven that's surprisingly weak against the run. Drake London will know Sauce Gardner well after 60 minutes. Kyle Pitts will add his usual 2-3 catches for 20-30 yards. Younghoe Koo might make a 50-yarder or two. At this point we know what we're getting from Atlanta's offense.
Feels like we know what Tim Boyle and company are bringing to the table too: ass.
Seriously though, you have to feel bad for Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson being drafted into this mess. A win they have to have if they want to possibly have any reason to bring back Aaron Rodgers, but it just doesn't seem like Boyle's the guy to pilot them to victory.
Falcons win, the viewers lose. Maybe a sneaky over with turnovers setting up good field position.
Starts: Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, Tyler Conklin
Sits: Drake London
Sleepers: Jeremy Ruckert
Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)
I was a little busy this weekend with a commute/wedding, so this is the section of this column where we really expedite things to get it out on time Sunday.
Pittsburgh shouldn't be 6 point favorites on any team, I don't care if it's the Cardinals, Bengals or Patriots. They're just not that good of a team across the board. Which makes this game feel super trappy...
No team gives up more rushing yards than the Cardinals, only five teams allow more passing yards. What could go wrong for Pickett, Najee and Co?
I've seen enough Steelers games to know that this is a sketchy play. Take the Cards to cover here, but no reason Tomlin allows his team to drop a crucial game in their playoff push.
Starts: Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson
Sits: Trey McBride, Pat Freiermuth
Sleepers: Rondale Moore
Miami Dolphins (-9.5) at Washington Commanders
The Commanders have given up almost 200 more yards to wide receivers than any other team in the NFL. They face Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle this week.
Hammer Miami and the over
Starts: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Tua Tagovailoa
Sits: Brian Robinson Jr.
Sleepers: Jahan Dotson
Denver Broncos at Houston Texans (-3.5)
Big boy game for CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans. How badly do y'all want to go to the playoffs?
Both teams are hot overall, with Houston coming up just short last week to division rivals Jacksonville, in a game that surely locks them into a wildcard or bust slot. Should be a pretty entertaining back and forth. Both defenses have areas of weakness for the other offense to exploit, just a matter of execution.
Love me some CJ Stroud, but this game feels like a look in the mirror. Awesome rookie season, inspiring. Just not the Texans' time, not just yet. Broncos in a tight road upset, keeping their winning streak rolling.
Starts: Nico Collins, Courtland Sutton, Devin Singletary
Sits: Dameon Pierce
Sleepers: Brevin Jordan
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5)
Ew.
History suggests maybe the Panthers have a better shot here than the line indicates with them rocking an interim coach now. But I've seen enough David Tepper press conferences this week to know that this team's a shit show. Absolute embarrassment of a franchise.
Bucs win, but I'm not necessarily 1000% confident. Not a game worth tuning into, that's for sure.
Starts: Adam Thielen, Rachaad White
Sits: Chuba Hubbard
Sleepers: Tommy Tremble
Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)
Well, Joe Flacco's starting for the Browns, which rules. Not sure I've ever pulled so hard for a division rival in the midst of a playoff push. He's going to look like shit too in those ugly jerseys.
Under on this game feels like a lock. Stafford's going to struggle against a top flight defense, while Flacco reveals to the world why he was unemployed until last week. The Rams probably should win, but I think Cleveland's defense could give them enough trouble to keep it tight.
Starts: David Njoku
Sits: Jerome Ford
Sleepers: Tutu Atwell
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles found themselves in the game of the year last week, and are positioned to potentially top that mark today. Huge NFC showdown in the Linc.
Brock Purdy and the Niners offense has been a machine since Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams returned from injury, averaging just over 30 PPG in that span. I like their chances to replicate that success against a Philly defense that's somewhat underachieving, particularly against the pass. Brandon Aiyuk should be in for a busy day.
Jalen Hurts has also been playing at an incredibly high level, though his stat sheet doesn't always show it traditionally. The guy gets the ball into the end zone, plain and simple. He's hard to faze, never staying down for long before rallying the troops for a final push. A big game player, coming into a big, big game.
Look for AJ Brown and Devonta Smith to have big games against an exploitable secondary. Hurts will likely put up some pretty solid rushing numbers too, being flushed from the pocket by an elite pass rush. The over in this game feels right, on top of being one of the more fun plays you could hit this week.
Niners though! Getting it done on the road, getting the Eagles hump off of their back. Some will call it revenge for last year's NFC Championship. Others will simply address it as the huge regular season win that it'll be, for whoever pulls it out.
Philly essentially locks up the 1 seed with a win, for the record. I don't see it happening though.
Starts: AJ Brown, Brandon Aiyuk, Jalen Hurts
Sits: George Kittle
Sleepers:
Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) at Green Bay Packers
So, when does flex season start?
In all seriousness, this game actually does have a few storylines worth noting, particularly compared to the Monday nighter. Jordan Love's been playing awesome over the last two weeks and now gets a real test in a stiff KC defense. Important game to show where he truly is in his progression, especially at Lambeau.
Patrick Mahomes and his crew finally clicked last week, after spotting the Raiders a 14-0 lead early, putting up a quick and emphatic 31 points. The Packers have some talent on defense, but they're far from world beaters and should provide Mahomes some opportunity to have another big day. Travis Kelce won't find space as easily as other weeks, so it'll be up to his patchwork group of receivers to give the man some windows. When his second year running back isn't pounding the front seven.
Think Green Bay lingers here before Kansas City pulls away late, stealing a road victory in a classic matchup.
Starts: Isiah Pacheco
Sits: AJ Dillon
Sleepers: Patrick Taylor
Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)
Shew... Jake Browning in primetime.
For what it's worth, he didn't look that terrible against Pittsburgh. En route to 10 points. I smell a pick six and a monstrous win for the Jags here, just burying this Bengals cursed season. Hit the under too
Starts: Travis Etienne
Sits: Joe Mixon
Sleepers: D'Ernest Johnson
Records on the season:
90-88 ATS
107-71 SU
92-86 O/U
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, clearly, just my opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
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