Was thrilled to kick off Week 11 with a Ravens win over Cincy. Was a beautiful sight to see, especially in person. Joe Burrow's thumb injury though, crossing another quarterback off the list, is awful. Cannot remember another year where there've been so many QB's deal with season-ending injuries. Heal up quick Mr. Shiesty.
On a more positive note, we have football to watch and bet on today. Let's jump into it
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
So many playoff implications potentially on the line in this one, really a shame it has to go down on a short week. Chances are good we won't see either team rolling at 100%, but that's Thursday Night Football for ya.
I will be in attendance at M&T Bank, doing everything in my power to push the Ravens to a victory. Lamar Jackson will be an integral part of that. The man was forcing his way into MVP discussions earlier in the month, but lost almost all momentum in that regard after last week's loss to Cleveland. Cincy's secondary presents a nice get right spot, coming off of a dicing at the hands of CJ Stroud.
The Bengals' run defense from a week ago will be another concern. They just allowed the Texans to run for over 150 yards on them; a team that was barely averaging 3 yards per carry prior. If they can't slow Baltimore's rushing attack, it's going to be a long day on the field for this unit. Look for Gus to be busy, as well as Keaton Mitchell too, assuming the coaching staff doesn't forget about him, again.
Joe Burrow had also been playing at an elite level before a bit of a hiccup last week. He still was solid, but not quite the caliber he'd been at for much of October. The Ravens' secondary just allowed Deshaun Watson to have a 14-14 half passing against them, which has to have Burrow feeling okay about his chances.
Marlon Humphrey's health will have a big impact on that. If he's good to go, he should be following Ja'Marr Chase for majority of the game. If not, it could be a pretty tricky situation for this cornerback group. Tee Higgins' ability to play is something else to monitor. His posted a strong 6/89/2 line in the first go round between these two teams and provides a big mismatch in the red zone.
Really tough to pick a winner between these divisional rivals, but I'm leaning toward Baltimore not dropping two straight at home. I'll probably bet on Cincy to cover +3.5 though, as they did in a week two loss.
Starts: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Tyler Boyd
Sits: Odell Beckham Jr
Sleepers: Keaton Mitchell
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-3.5)
Just as Deshaun Watson was rediscovering his form as a top tier quarterback, boom, season ending shoulder surgery. Monumental blow to the surging Browns. PJ Walker time, again.
This'll surely be looked back upon as a season of "what if's" for Cleveland. The best defense not only in the NFL, but in a decade plus, primed to be wasted by an offense missing stars like Nick Chubb, Jack Conklin, Jedrick Wills, and now, Watson. I'd be lying if I said I felt bad for the maligned franchise, but we don't wish injuries on anyone.
The Browns defense is still legit though, which'll give them hope in most games. Kenny Pickett has been supremely bland, despite his team's 6-3 record. This is a horrible matchup for him. Throw in the fact that they're also a top ten rush defense and it's hard to see a path for Pittsburgh to win this offensively.
If Pittsburgh can win this game, it'll mean a lights out performance by the defense and a few successful risks by Pickett. Incredibly similar path to victory for Cleveland. I like the Browns to win, but similar to AFC North battle above, I'll take the Steelers to keep it within 3.
Starts: Cleveland defense, Jerome Ford
Sits: Diontae Johnson, Najee Harris
Sleepers: Calvin Austin
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-7.5)
Justin Fields is back, which adds some explosiveness to a Bears offense that's been sorely lacking it these last few weeks. Their defense is playing much better during that same span as well, especially against the run. This line's already shifted two points toward Chicago since Tuesday, which feels appropriate for this divisional game.
Will Fields be rusty after a month on the pine? A date with a Lions' secondary that just got torched by Justin Herbert should provide some opportunity to shake any of that off pretty quickly.
Khalil Herbert may be returning as well, providing a little more pop out of the backfield. D'Onta Foreman has run well though in his absence and will continue to have some role. Look for DJ Moore to have a big day too, reestablishing a connection with his QB.
Detroit's been a buzz saw offensively, from Jared Goff to Jahmyr Gibbs to Amon Ra St. Brown; and now David Montgomery's back in the mix. It really is a pick your poison for opposing teams. Chicago boasts the second best run defense in the league, so this'll be a nice test to see just how good that unit is.
Jaylon Johnson will have his hands full trying to slow down St. Brown too, the wideout hasn't been held under 100 yards since September.
Love the over in this game, I think it should be fun. I don't see how the Lions drop it at home, but this won't be a layup. The Bears keeping it within a touchdown is perfectly viable, with some real potential for an upset.
Starts: DJ Moore, Amon Ra St. Brown
Sits: David Montgomery
Sleepers: Josh Reynolds, Darnell Mooney
Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) at Green Bay Packers
Feels more like an early season matchup here, but we've got the underachieving Chargers traveling up to Lambeau for a mid-November brawl. Justin Herbert came off their bye with a sensational performance against the Lions, only to be let down by his defense. He won't have it so easy this week against a top ten pass D that's giving up just 17.2 PPG over their last five. No Gerald Everett and a banged up Keenan Allen and Jalen Guyton won't help that cause.
Austin Ekeler will be his best friend, on the ground and in the pass game. The Packers do give up a good bit of rushing yards, so if LA can establish themselves there, then they should open things up some for their QB.
41 points last week, that's what the Chargers D allowed to Detroit. They should be embarrassed and motivated to get right-- and what better way then by facing Jordan Love. The quarterback will have some decent matchups to try and capitalize on, but will need to do so quickly with Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa bearing down on him. Forgive me for not being optimistic in his ability to do that.
LA surprisingly has been stingy against the run, which we expect again here. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon have generally looked slow this season, behind some bad offensive line play. Low ceilings here.
The Chargers are going to get right in the biggest of ways. They've crushed a few bad teams earlier this season and should have no problem doing so once again.
Starts: Austin Ekeler
Sits: Aaron Jones
Sleepers: Luke Musgrave, Joshua Kelley
Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins (-12.5)
Backup quarterback, traveling cross country to face a pissed off Dolphins team that's coming off their bye. There is no chance this game is close, Miami's built their reputation off of destroying opponents like this.
Ball control and good defense may keep it close for a little bit, but Josh Jacobs is going to find running room scarce. Aidan O'Connell will surely throw one a little too close to Jalen Ramsey, or hold onto the ball just long enough for Bradley Chubb to strip it out. Nate Hobbs and the Vegas secondary is only going to be able to contain Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle for so long.
Don't overthink this one. Miami by a lot.
Starts: The main Dolphins' skill players
Sits: Davante Adams
Sleepers: Michael Mayer
New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-9.5)
Tommy DeVito trudges on under center for the Giants. Will the rookie inherit the team's recent dominance of Washington? If so, Saquon Barkley will be a big part of the upset. He's currently listed as questionable, and while I certainly wouldn't blame him for sitting out, expect him to be good to go Sunday.
Slowing down Sam Howell and the Commanders' offense will be another task for the G-Men. They held this group to just 7 points in their first showdown but have been playing horribly the last two weeks, allowing 39.5 points per game to the Raiders and Cowboys. During that same stretch, Howell's thrown for 637 passing yards. Feels like New York isn't going to be the team to slow them.
Love Brian Robinson in this game too. With Antonio Gibson unlikely to play, there should be a tremendous amount of volume in the run and pass game for the emerging running back.
Not sure I trust Washington to be defeating anyone by double digits, but this Giants offense is so brutally ineffective. Commanders money line feels like a lock, but that spread is less certain.
Starts: Brian Robinson, Sam Howell
Sits: Logan Thomas
Sleepers: Daniel Bellinger
Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) at Carolina Panthers
On paper, this is a massacre. Dallas is better in almost every area and are known for destroying lesser teams, but they haven't played particularly well on the road. Take out their week one demolition at the Giants, and they're 1-3 away from Jerry World, giving up 28.8 PPG while scoring just 17.3. One of those losses was to the Cardinals too, so I've got some questions about going all in on them.
Bryce Young may or may not be bad, but he's not playing well at all right now. The Cowboys' #2 pass defense will be a really difficult challenge for the rookie, one that I don't think he's going to handle well. Throw in the fact that Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders are incapable of running the ball and I don't see how Carolina sustains any drives.
The Panthers defense is underrated and is going to be crucial if they want to be within striking distance late. Don't be surprised if it's close early before the Cowboys pull away late, as just a far superior team.
Starts: Tony Pollard, Dak Prescott
Sits: Jake Ferguson, Adam Thielen
Sleepers: Rico Dowdle
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5)
It's getting time in the year for Titans to be looking to play spoiler rather than playoff contender. They're currently sitting at 3-6, on a two game losing streak with a rookie QB under center, who at least has provided one encouraging performance. It got ugly quick in Nashville.
On a positive note, Will Levis will benefit from these uninhibited reps. He's shown some flashes so far, but hasn't put a death grip on the job moving forward, so here's half a season to prove it. More than most young quarterbacks get. Levis would do well to look for Deandre Hopkins more often, that'd been proving successful for him early.
Derrick Henry vs. the #4 rush defense in the league should prove interesting too. The Jags have been stingy on the ground, but Henry's cleared 100 against them in 5 out of his last 6 games against their AFC South rival. At a minimum, twenty touches should be on deck for the King.
Jacksonville was thoroughly throttled by the Niners a week ago and have to be itching to redeem themselves. They trailed throughout and weren't able to run the ball, leaving Trevor Lawrence to fold under the pressure of a pass rush that knew they were one dimensional.
The Titans will also limit Travis Etienne, but their cornerbacks should provide some much larger windows for Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley. Look for Lawrence to find them for chunk yardage regularly. Tennessee does allow the 4th fewest yards to tight ends, meaning a quiet day for Evan Engram.
If I trusted Will Levis just a little bit more, I'd be taking Tennessee to lose but cover. Division game, good enough defense, -6.5 is a lot. But the Jags are talented on both sides of the ball and should be able to keep the Titans at bay. The over at 39.5 feels doable too
Starts: Christian Kirk, Derrick Henry
Sits: Evan Engram
Sleepers: Ty'Jae Spears
Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans (-5.5)
Upset alert! Kyler Murray and the Cardinals looked really respectable in their first run as a complete unit last week, picking up their second win of the season over the reeling Falcons. They get a Texans team here who are flying high, but not unflawed.
One thing to keep an eye on is Houston allowing the sixth most yards to tight ends. Trey McBride and Murray have shown a big time connection that could be utilized regularly. Hollywood Brown and Rondale Moore will get theirs as well. James Conner should also expect 15+ carries as they try to avoid a shootout against a bright young rookie by the name of...
CJ Stroud. MVP candidate, OROY lock, great guy, general baller. Love this kid, think he's electric, sees the whole field, elevates his teammates. Huge day ahead for him too against a defense that gives up a lot of passing yards. Noah Brown, got another hundred in ya?
Dameon Pierce has been ruled out too, opening the door for Devin Singletary to follow up a career day. After racking up 150 at 5 yards a tote, the Buffalo cast off could be set for a similar outing against a bottom five Arizona run defense.
But I don't think it'll matter. Something tells me Kyler Murray's fighting for his reputation right now and is chasing that like a Double-XP weekend. Give me the Cards pulling out a high scoring affair late!
Starts: Trey McBride, CJ Stroud
Sits: Dalton Schultz
Sleepers: Rondale Moore
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-11.5)
For brevity sake, I'm going to be blunt with this game. The Bucs have outstanding receivers who, on paper, could absolutely exploit a weak group of cornerbacks. But the Niners don't allow rushing yards and get after the quarterback. Teams that do that to Baker Mayfield shut him down. Period.
Tampa also can't stop the pass, while Brock Purdy appears to be all the way back now that Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams have returned to the field. I don't see how this game's close at all.
Niners going away, sketchy total depending how bad the Bucs offense ultimately plays.
Starts: Brock Purdy, Brandon Aiyuk
Sits: Baker Mayfield, Cade Otton
Sleepers: Ray-Ray McLeod
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-6.5)
Incredibly tough game to predict. Awesome matchup between two opposite types of chaos: one possessing the ability to explode offensively at any time or completely implode, the other possessing that same caliber of defense while battling tirelessly for any type of competence with the ball. So many variables.
This Jets defense has owned Josh Allen of late and is a hell of a way to break in Joe Brady as the new offensive coordinator. The Bills' QB went 29-41 for 236 and three interceptions in their week one matchup, completely stifling any chance they had of pulling off a road win, even with the crippling loss of Aaron Rodgers. One would think he couldn't be worse, but I don't type that confidently.
Gang Green does allow rushing yards though, meaning a steady dose of James Cook could help loosen things up for the turnover prone quarterback. Normally, I'd say don't hold your breath, but let's see how Brady handles to task.
On the flip side, Zach Wilson is damn near unwatchable. He clearly misses reads in action, takes the saddest sacks, has less ball control then Jaylen Brown with the left. I do not understand how Joe Douglas and Robert Saleh moved forward at the trade deadline with this roster, and this QB, senseless.
But...we'll get at least one more dose of him. Garrett Wilson is less than 100%, which doesn't help a bleak situation. Maybe this'll be a week Breece Hall can actually get some room to run? Won't hold my breath there either with this patchwork New York line.
A loss would be disastrous for Buffalo, absolutely Earth shaking. Especially at home. I think they find a way to pull out a scary one, very similar to what they'd been doing a few weeks ago. But it won't be pretty. Tune in for the madness.
Starts: James Cook, Tyler Conklin
Sits: Josh Allen (you're not though)
Sleepers: Khalil Shakir
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5)
Another hard one to get a read on! Admittedly, will probably not touch this game. NFC West divisional battles get sticky and this one projects no differently.
The line has slowly shifted from Seattle toward the Rams as the days have gone by, not surprising with it being in LA and Matthew Stafford back under center. He diced this young secondary in week one for 334 yards, and that was without Cooper Kupp on the field. Devon Witherspoon and company have gelled since then, but there'll be some passing yards to be had.
The Darrell Henderson-Royce Freeman committee will be marching on for another one. Neither are particularly exciting on the ground, with a slight lean toward Henderson in the short pass game. Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson each gashed this 'Hawks defense last Sunday off screens and dump offs, providing some optimism on that front.
Which Geno are we going to get? The one we saw in Baltimore, or the one that surgically took out Washington? We know both of them are in there, always a roller coaster waiting to see who's turn it is. The Rams don't have a secondary full of guys you know, but they're strong as a unit overall. Will be an interesting chess match on that front.
I originally liked LA as home dogs, but now I think I'm shying toward Seattle. They can't go 0-2 against the lowly Rams if they want to be taken seriously as playoff contenders right? That's the mindset I know Pete Carroll's drilling into their heads. Will be tight throughout.
Starts: Kenneth Walker, Cooper Kupp
Sits: Tyler Lockett
Sleepers: Darrell Henderson Jr., Noah Fant
Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos (-2.5)
Three weeks ago, Kirk Cousins had torn his Achilles', while the Broncos were sitting at 2-5 on a bye. A look ahead at this Sunday night matchup would've been as confusing as it was unexciting. Now, I can't wait!
The Josh Dobbs experience rolls on to Mile High to face a group now in the wild card hunt in the midst of a three game win streak. Minnesota toyed with the idea of bringing back Justin Jefferson for this week, but that was nixed Saturday. While that's not necessary to their success, it definitely wouldn't have hurt.
Jordan Addison will be lead dog against Patrick Surtain II and company. Modest expectations for all the receivers. But TJ Hockenson, that man's going to have a day. Dobbs showed an immediate connection with the star tight end, a position Denver allows the second highest amount of yards to. Should be some huge numbers.
Russell Wilson's been awesome during this Broncos' win streak. Clean and efficient with the ball, letting the run game dictate the offense. It's what worked in Seattle, no need to go DangerRuss and try and change the narrative. Good on Sean Payton for seeing that and helping guide that adjustment, the results are panning out.
Javonte Williams has been vital in that effort too, pounding yardage away on the ground. It won't be easy sledding for him against a sneaky good Vikings' front seven, but expect him to touch the ball 15-20 times at least to try and soften them up.
My head says Broncos here, my heart says Vikings. I'm going to follow my heart, for whatever reason, and say Minnesota continues their wild march to the seventh seed in the NFC. Should be a close one.
Starts: TJ Hockenson, Courtland Sutton
Sits: Alexander Mattison
Sleepers: Brandon Powell, Josh Dobbs
Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)
What a way to wrap up the week. Two absolute heavyweights of the league, a Super Bowl rematch, fresh off of byes, in a Monday Night showdown that isn't to be missed.
Arrowhead's going to be rocking as Patrick Mahomes and the squad take on a Philly defense that's been playing better of late, particularly against the run, where they're #1. Brighter days in the future for Isiah Pacheco.
It'll be up to Travis Kelce and a really iffy group of receivers to move the ball on offense. They haven't consistently been able to do that this season, unless Taylor Swift is in the building. First and last time I plan on referencing her in these articles.
Jalen Hurts and the Eagles have been really inconsistent in their own offensive attack. They'll look like world beaters for stretches of time before going completely dormant. It's hard to say exactly who to pin that on, but there's a big enough sample size for it to be deemed a problem. Against an elite unit like Kansas City's D, they'll need to maximize with touchdowns when things are going well.
AJ Brown's been unstoppable most of the season, but will face a tough duo of Trent McDuffie and L'Jarius Sneed. Whoever doesn't draw Brown will get Devonta Smith, nice consolation. Will be fun watching the four battle all evening. Expecting more safety help for each corner too with Dallas Goedert not over the middle. The tight end broke his forearm before the bye and is set to miss some time.
Something tells me Philadelphia finds a way to win this with relative ease. Maybe building an early lead and holding on late, as their offense predictably sputters? That's what we'll go with, late over too
Starts: D'Andre Swift, Jalen Hurts
Sits: Isiah Pacheco
Sleepers: Skyy Moore
Records on the season:
72-76 ATS
89-59 SU
76-72 O/U
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, clearly, just my opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
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