Slightly lighter slate of action for us here, with our Thanksgiving and Black Friday action earlier this week. Luckily for us viewers, there should be a little more entertainment value with this impending set of games, with the previous ones essentially being blow outs.
Couple of interesting dogs here that we like, let's jump into all that:
New Orleans Saints (-1.5) at Atlanta Falcons
For better or worse, Derek Carr is cleared to return for this one o'clock bout. It's probably the safer start at quarterback, though the fun factor Jameis Winston can bring will be missed.
Should be a game Carr can shine in, as Atlanta is in the midst of a three game losing streak, allowing 28 PPG while on the skid. Despite Michael Thomas hitting the IR, he should have plenty of options in the pass game between Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. Alvin Kamara will be a PPR machine as well.
Seems like we'll be getting Desmond Ridder back under center for the Falcons, another unexciting development. Marshon Lattimore's not playing for New Orleans, which doesn't hurt the second year quarterback's trajectory. But he got benched for a reason, despite the medical cover up. If Dennis Allen's worth anything as a defensive coach, he should be able to neutralize this passing attack.
Bijan Robinson will be a taller task however. The rookie finally got a worthy workload in last week's loss to Arizona and didn't disappoint. It'd be surprising to see that change this week, but Arthur Smith's caused us to scratch our heads more than once this year, so you never know.
Let me get the Saints in this one, as they attempt to strengthen their grip on the sad NFC South. Something tells me the over sneaks into contention late too.
Starts: Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave
Sits: Tyler Allgeier
Sleepers: Juwan Johnson
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Jake Browning gets his first career start, versus a Mike Tomlin-coached Steelers team. Something tells me it's not going to be pretty for Cincinnati.
Pittsburgh is coming off a tough loss to Dorian Thompson-Robinson and the Cleveland Browns, giving this the feel of a must win if they want to stay in the wildcard hunt. Firing Matt Canada feels like a very temporary fix at best, but new OC Eddie Faulkner may provide a spark to an offense that's gone completely flat.
Outside of running back Jaylen Warren that is. The second string back has been incredibly explosive over the last month, slowly taking work from Najee Harris. Draft status aside, it's clear he's the hot hand and they need to give him the lion's share.
Circling back to Mr. Browning, having Ja'Marr Chase and Joe Mixon is helpful. But their offensive line is bad and the Steelers can rush the passer. It's going to be difficult to get anything going downfield, considerations I'm sure Cincy has taken through the week.
After Tomlin fell to the rookie DTR last week, there's no way he allows his team to fall to another inferior passer. Due to their own offensive deficiencies, this likely won't be a blow out. But Pittsburgh should be able to run the ball with success, which'll open up things for Pickett-- as much as he'll allow it anyway. Steelers win and cover on the road.
Starts: Jaylen Warren
Sits: Ja'Marr Chase
Sleepers: Pat Freiermuth
Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
Another rookie vs. rookie battle at quarterback, this time featuring Bryce Young and Will Levis. Neither of these teams are going anywhere this season, but a win would at least give a little confidence boost to one of these signal callers moving forward.
Bryce Young's had a pretty underwhelming inaugural campaign, but this weak Titans' secondary provides an opportunity for him to notch a quality start. If he plays well, they have a real chance to pull off the road upset. Look for Adam Thielen to get peppered with looks all afternoon.
His opponent, Levis, made a strong first impression on the league against Atlanta, but hasn't gotten the job done since. He hasn't turned the ball over much and does push the ball down the field, but it hasn't translated to wins. The Panthers have a stingy defense who aren't going to make it easy for him.
Derrick Henry should have a little room to rumble on the ground, which could help control the clock and open up play action. He's Tennessee's most direct route to victory, expect him to be force fed the rock.
Regardless of the King's presence, I have a feeling the Panthers steal this win. They just don't seem quite bad enough to win only one game this season. This might be their best shot the rest of the way. Take them to cover confidently, or be a little bolder and take the money line.
Starts: Derrick Henry, Adam Thielen
Sits: Will Levis, Chigoziem Okonkwo
Sleepers: DJ Chark
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
Not many thought these two teams would have playoff potential at this point in the year, but here we are. Slim chances, but nonetheless.
Baker Mayfield and his offense couldn't get much going at all in San Francisco, but should have an easier go up in Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts defense is alright, but don't particularly standout against the run or pass. Rachaad White's been emerging as a force in recent weeks and should draw the defense into the box-- opening up space over the top for Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Look for each to be busy.
Gardner Minshew's also positioned to have a nice day against a Bucs defense that's been very generous to the pass. Michael Pittman Jr. has had a strong season, despite the roller coaster at quarterback, and will post some big numbers this Sunday too. Looking for Josh Downs to reemerge as well. The rookie's only managed 50 total yards over the last two weeks, really decreasing from his previous production.
Won't be a lot of running room for Jonathan Taylor however against a top 5 run defense. The lack of balance may end up effecting Minshew if the Tampa is able to drop extra guys into coverage, forcing the turnover-prone QB into some mistakes.
Thinking I'll roll with the Bucs on the road. Just seems like they'll be able to contain Indy's offense enough while putting up enough of their own to pull it out. Think I'll go with the under too, should be some turnovers to stall drives.
Starts: Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, Rachaad White
Sits: Zack Moss
Sleepers: Cade Otton
New England Patriots (-3.5) at New York Giants
Unlike every other game on this slate, I don't really have a positive spin on this one. Seems like Mac Jones is going to start, despite the hush hush on the matter. How can you get hyped up for that? Like, on any level of fandom.
At least Tommy DeVito has a fun storyline and is coming off a game where he was not only competent, but excelled. Haven't been able to say that about Mr. Jones many times in 2023. Don't really expect good performances from either, with Belichick owning rookie QBs and the Giants boasting a quietly solid pass defense.
At a minimum, I'm thinking I trust in New York enough to cover at home. DeVito or not, this line feels really high. Wouldn't be surprised if they win outright.
Starts: Rhamondre Stevenson, Demario Douglas, Saquon Barkley
Sits: Any Giants pass catcher
Sleepers: Ezekiel Elliott
Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5) at Houston Texans
Maybe this week's most monumental matchup, with AFC South supremacy on the line. As bad as Houston's been in recent years, they've absolutely had the Jags' number, winning 10 of their last 11 matchups.
CJ Stroud is a beacon of hope for the maligned franchise, coming off his worst statistical performance of the year-- where he still managed to pass for 336 and 2 scores. Jacksonville forces turnovers, but they also give up a ton of yardage through the air. If they can't make a couple of plays against the electric rookie, this score could run up in a hurry.
Devin Singletary's rejuvenated his career over the last two weeks, but will find running room at a premium against the 4th ranked run D. Shouldn't effect Stroud's performance, as he's dealt with a pretty terrible rushing attack up to this point anyway.
Statement kind of moment ahead for Trevor Lawrence. If he's going to ascend into the upper echelon of quarterbacks in this league, winning divisional games like this is vital. He's got the best supporting cast of his career, on both sides of the ball, and needs to do his part to play clean and deliver a victory.
Houston's pass defense has been exploitable, but Derek Stingley Jr. reentering the mix boosts the talent of their group. The former #3 pick had a nice interception last week to announce his return to the lineup. They also stop the run well too, meaning Travis Etienne's forecast is a bit bleak. This game will very likely fall on T-Law's shoulder.
And I don't think he's up to the challenge. It's a small sample size, but give me CJ Stroud to win a contested game over Lawrence, especially at home. Also feels like a game everyone takes the over on, but the under hits. I'm going low
Starts: Dalton Schultz, Tank Dell, Evan Engram
Sits: Devin Singletary
Sleepers: Texans defense
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (-1.5)
Not a conventionally exciting way to kick off our 4 PM block, by any stretch, but definitely an incoming chess match between these two.
Very interested to see how Russell Wilson fares against an elite Browns defense. The allegedly 'dangeruss' quarterback has actually lived up to the billing in recent weeks, including against a tough Chiefs group, but this unit's on a different level. Star cornerback Denzel Ward is unable to play however, which is a boost for Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy.
Love Javonte Williams and have been really high on him of late. Brutal matchup for the kid, but he'll likely still experience high volume. You're not shying away from starting him, but don't be surprised if something in the ballpark of a 23 carry/68 yard line is what you get.
Third career start for Dorian Thompson-Robinson, after winning his first seven days ago against Pittsburgh. It wasn't a pretty outing, but a win's a win, and Cleveland is still well in the thick of the hunt for the #1 seed. Can he find a little more magic this Sunday?
Denver's defense has been rounding into form during their win streak as well, allowing just 17 points per game during that span. It'd be very surprising to see the Browns eclipse such a number, but if they do, it'll be because of Jerome Ford. Even with the improved play, this D is still far and away the worst against the run in the whole league. If the visitors can get a little ground and pound going, it'll open things up for them elsewhere.
Don't expect that to happen though. The Broncos are going to load the box and dare DTR to throw, which'll result in a mistake or two if he does take the bait. This under feels safe, as does Denver with relative ease.
Starts: Jerome Ford, Courtland Sutton
Sits: Amari Cooper
Sleepers: David Njoku
Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals
To force a narrative out of this game, I guess it's a must win if the Rams are hoping to keep their slim playoff hopes alive? The NFC is pretty wide open for the 7th seed, possibly the 6th now too with Seattle's recent free fall. Plus LA owns the tiebreaker versus the Seahawks...see we're building something here!
Matthew Stafford has had some big moments, but he goes cold for long stretches with a little too much regularity. Hard really to identify the cause of that that too: with decent offensive line play, good receivers, and a running game that's been serviceable. A lot of tread on those tires, maybe starting to slow the wily vet.
The Cardinals don't boast a great defense though, meaning Stafford should have some windows to connect with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. The former was completely taken off of the injury report and should be 100%. Running back Kyren Williams is set to return to the backfield too, adding a big boost to this offense.
But Kyler Murray isn't going down without a fight! He's been a little rusty in his first two starts of 2023, but there's plenty of reason to be optimistic with his ability to perform. Trey McBride appears to be his most reliable target, with Hollywood Brown, Rondale Moore and Greg Dortch splitting the rest of the receiving duties.
Like themselves, LA isn't a great D against the rush, so we like James Conner to have a busy day. He's been a driving force for Arizona all year, really reversing my opinion of his ability. For whatever that's worth. Respect.
Give me another home dog in Arizona here! The Cardinals fell oh so close to an upset in Houston and should be able to continue their improved play at home against a divisional rival.
Starts: Kyren Williams, Trey McBride
Sits: Hollywood Brown
Sleepers: Greg Dortch
Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Hate the line for this game. Kansas City is the superior team, but their offense has been pretty abysmal across the board. How many teams are they truly 9 points better than? Especially on the road.
Patrick Mahomes has had his faults through their bumpy play, but the drops and fumbles have to be starting to bother him. The lack of talent in this KC wide receiver room is truly baffling. Vegas also plays the tight end position tough, potentially spelling another lackluster day for Travis Kelce.
Isiah Pacheco is going to be the X-factor whether the Chiefs win and/or cover. The Raiders give up a ton of rushing yards and the second year back has been carrying the ball with some steam. It's not his cup of tea, but Andy Reid would be wise to get the back heavily involved, early and often.
Another difficult defense for Aidan O'Connell to encounter as he continues his crash course of a rookie campaign. He made a few nice plays in Miami, but also fell into a couple of traps that set the team back. I'd imagine it'll be much of the same against Steve Spagnuolo's bunch. Like KC, a heavy dose of Josh Jacobs is Vegas' route to getting in the win column.
Just not confident enough in this rookie QB to take out Mahomes and company. A cover is absolutely in play though for Las Vegas...hard to say. Not a game I like betting-wise.
Starts: Isiah Pacheco
Sits: Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers
Sleepers: Hunter Renfrow
Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)
Another gem, with the Bills hoping to build a little momentum against the surging Eagles. Tough timing on the schedule for a team struggling in the wildcard chase. I guess that's what happens when you dig yourself a hole though.
Josh Allen should be able to throw a little versus a Philly secondary that's slightly underachieved at times. As always, Stefon Diggs will get peppered with targets, but there should be plenty to go around to Gabriel Davis and Khalil Shakir. Dalton Kincaid has a tougher draw, but we like his chances to find the end zone.
On the James Cook front, running into the best run defense the league has to offer isn't a salivating proposition. I've been preaching that some semblance of balance is critical for this offense in particular to work, but not sure it'll be in the cards for Buffalo Sunday evening. Cue the hero ball.
Jalen Hurts can do that too though, as evidenced by his two decisive touchdown runs last Monday to complete their comeback over the Chiefs. The Bills D isn't going to let anything come to him easily, but there's plenty of weapons at his disposal to make it happen. AJ Brown should bounce back after his worst start of 2023 against a depleted group of corners.
I've been riding a lot of unders this week, not for this game! I think we're going to get a good bit of scoring, should be a fun battle between two quarterbacks who refuse to go down. Something makes me think Philadelphia, yet again, finds a way to pull out the victory. Better coaching, better defense, a few less mistakes-- just ends up being too much. Buffalo +3.5 is definitely in play, however. They should be motivated.
Starts: AJ Brown, Stefon Diggs
Sits: James Cook
Sleepers: Khalil Shakir, Kenneth Gainwell
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
Despite currently sitting at #1 in the AFC, the Ravens don't currently control their own destiny, making every game important moving forward. This one's no different, traveling cross country to face a dangerous Chargers team in prime time.
Lamar Jackson's a human highlight reel, and will probably need to be Sunday night to overcome his massively undermanned core of pass catchers. He'll be without Mark Andrews, while OBJ and Rashod Bateman are unlikely to play. That leaves Zay Flowers, Nelson Agholor and Isaiah Likely...a real patchwork group.
Luckily for Baltimore, the Gus Bus is fueled up and ready to rumble. Expect Edwards to have a busy day against a generous run D. Keaton Mitchell will be very involved as well, especially with the precarious pass catching situation.
Justin Herbert is such a conundrum. So much talent, so many stats, spectacular moments. And it's just never enough. Sometimes it's the inept defense, but plenty of times it's on him too. He manages to escape blame a bit too often. He should have a little room to throw against a stingy secondary, especially if Marlon Humphrey is unable to play, but don't expect a banner day. Austin Ekeler will likely struggle on the ground too, providing value in the pass attack.
This over will probably be a really popular play, but I think it's the under this week for these two teams. Baltimore will be navigating a different looking offense with a heavy focus on running the ball. They do that well, and quickly, but I think their focus will be on clock control. Ravens bring home the win too, all but burying the Chargers.
Starts: Gus Edwards, Keaton Mitchell, Keenan Allen
Sits: Gerald Everett
Sleepers: Nelson Agholor
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
To Monday night we go, wrapping up week 12 in the NFC North. Josh Dobbs vs. Justin Fields squaring off in a the dome, should be a fun one!
The Bears offense was sharp with their QB1 back under center, putting up 26 against the Lions. Minnesota's defense has been playing a lot better than Detroit's, but they'll give up some points. Fields and DJ Moore should be able to connect with some regularity, love DJ this week. Khalil Herbert will be leading the backfield too, with D'Onta Foreman set to sit with a shin injury. A shinjury, if you will.
Josh Dobbs won't have the easiest day against a Bears defense that's gone from underrated to sneaky good. They were great against an explosive Lions bunch last week, until the final four minutes at least, and get an easier assignment this Monday. Don't expect Minnesota to be able to run the ball much at all, making Dobbs' day more challenging. When that happens, he has been prone to making mistakes, which he needs to avoid.
Unfortunately for Vikings fans, I think that's a pitfall he's going to fall into Monday night. Chicago should be able to contain Minnesota's offense while putting up enough points of their own. Give me the road dog to cap off the slate!
Starts: DJ Moore
Sits: Khalil Herbert, Alexander Mattison
Sleepers: KJ Osborn, Darnell Mooney
Records on the season: (Not including earlier this week)
80-82 ATS
97-65 SU
83-79 O/U
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, clearly, just my opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
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