Decided to break up this week's picks and fantasy predictions with there being four weekday games. Should make both blogs this week a little easier to digest, which'll be appreciated before this impending meal.
Hope you all have a great Thanksgiving, fruitful on the fantasy, family and gambling fronts. Make sure to check out the feature flick Thankskilling if you have a chance too. Seasonally appropriate, a 66-minute classic, directed by Jordan Downey. A quality use of your hour between one of these games Thursday.
But about those games,
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-7.5)
12:30 Eastern Time, you can have FOX TV on for a few hours and avoid a political argument with your family, instead opting for the first game of our Thursday slate. Detroit has been an offensive juggernaut over the last three weeks, averaging 32.7 PPG over that span.
They can do it all too, with Jared Goff by air and the David Montgomery/Jahmyr Gibbs duo by land. Expect to witness a rushing clinic to kick off your Turkey Day. The Lions have the 5th most yards running the ball while Green Bay has allowed the 5th most. Not a recipe for a successful matchup. As we saw against Chicago, Montgomery will be the hammer while Gibbs' versatility is more utilized.
Jordan Love is coming off his best game of 2023, dicing an inferior Chargers secondary. Detroit's been pretty giving in the pass game. He'll be without Luke Musgrave and Dontayvion Wicks for it though; not huge names but integral pieces of this offense. Look for Romeo Dobbs and Jayden Reed to benefit from their absences.
Aaron Jones is also on the mend with an MCL sprain and is unlikely to play. That spells a lot of volume for AJ Dillon, in the run and pass game. Tough run defense across from him though, so not expecting a monster game.
The over/under of 46.5 feels a touch high, especially if Detroit grinds away a bunch of clock with a run heavy approach. There's definitely potential for scoring here, but I'm going to lean to the under. And the Lions covering at home, Green Bay sucks.
Starts: David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Romeo Doubs
Sits: AJ Dillon
Sleepers: Jordan Love
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (-10.5)
Dak Prescott against the Washington Commanders for his career: 9-2 record, 64.2% completion percentage with 19 touchdowns to 4 picks. The Cowboys' MO this year is to crush bad teams, particularly in Jerry World. This feels like a really safe play.
Washington can't stop anybody right now, especially in the pass game. Dak and company have been incredibly productive over the last month, which should absolutely continue against this porous group of cornerbacks. CeeDee Lamb should feast on and off the field.
Sam Howell was horrendous last week against the Giants, throwing three interceptions while failing to field a competent offense. Logic would think he can't be worse this go round. Howell's also won his only career start versus Dallas in January, posting a modest 169 yards.
The Commanders' offensive line is going to be a big part of if they can pull off the upset. Getting Brian Robinson going would help ease some of the pressure Micah Parsons is going to be applying, opening up some play action opportunities in the process.
It's a steep challenge though, that I don't think they're up for. Much like the showers at FedEx Field, this season's gone cold for the Commanders, who are going to get destroyed. You can be safe and take Dallas -9.5, but they could win by 20+ if they come out firing on all cylinders.
Starts: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb
Sits: Terry McLaurin
Sleepers: Brandin Cooks, Logan Thomas
San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) at Seattle Seahawks
The fate of the NFC West could very well lie in the outcome of this game. San Francisco currently has a one game lead in the division that would would really balloon with a win up in the Pacific Northwest, especially with how well they've been playing lately.
Since coming off of their bye, conveniently coinciding with the returns of Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams, the Niners have beaten their opponents by an average of 22 points. Brock Purdy has returned to MVP form, Brandon Aiyuk is establishing himself as a legit WR1 and George Kittle has been putting up highlight reel days. And I still haven't even mentioned Christian McCaffery. Such a stacked roster.
Geno Smith's seemingly fortunate to get to play in this one. He missed a few series against the Rams last week due to an elbow injury on his throwing arm and was up in the air for this Thursday matchup. At less than 100% though, I don't like his prospects against this ferocious defense. To make matters worse, Kenneth Walker is doubtful and DK Metcalf is banged up in his own right. Struggling to hype myself up for this group.
This is a Geno meltdown type game. Including the playoffs, he's 0-3 against the 49ers with as many turnovers as touchdowns. I think the Seahawks get absolutely demolished to cap off the evening, allowing San Francisco to establish their divisional dominance. Liking the over too.
Starts: Brock Purdy, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Zach Charbonnet
Sits: Geno Smith
Sleepers: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Miami Dolphins (-9.5) at New York Jets
Black Friday is now bringing live NFL action to us! You love to see it. Now if only the Jets could get a deal on some competent quarterback play, it'd really spruce up this AFC East bout for everyone. There's some intriguing layers to this game however.
Tua and the Dolphins don't particularly shine against tough defenses, which is the one thing keeping New York competitive. With their season basically on the line, I expect Sauce Gardner and company to come out fired up, and with some success.
But Tim Boyle's not the guy who's going to take the Jets to the Promise Land. Being worse than Zach Wilson isn't easy task, but Boyle isn't necessarily a shoo-in to upstage his predecessor. Their offensive line sucks, Miami's defense is playing really well. It just doesn't look good for Gang Green.
Love the under in this game, think that's a borderline lock. The Dolphins should absolutely win too, though I can't guarantee a cover. Not after that shit show last week against the Raiders...taking money out of my pocket.
Happy Thanksgiving y'all!
Starts: Raheem Mostert
Sits: Garrett Wilson
Sleepers: Tyler Conklin, Durham Smythe, Jeff Wilson
Records on the season:
80-82 ATS
97-65 SU
83-79 O/U
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, clearly, just my opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
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