To week nine we go! Love the early start in Germany, particularly the matchup. The rest of the slate...that's what that smell must be. Not a lot of exciting games to discuss, but sometimes those Sunday's are the most memorable. Fingers crossed for that.
Let's jump into things!
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) (Thursday 11/2)
Can Will Levis do it again? That'll be the question of the day as Tennessee travels up to Western Pennsylvania Thursday night for what promises...to be a game of football.
The rookie second rounder was incredible in his NFL debut, throwing for four touchdowns as he led his team to a victory over Atlanta. With Minkah Fitzpatrick ruled out, it'll be easier sledding than otherwise for the young gunslinger. Expect Deandre Hopkins to be the regular target if Levis does get rolling.
Derrick Henry should be able to move the ball against a pretty shaky front seven, even if he is a little banged up. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see him clear the century mark for a second straight week. Keep an eye on his timeshare with Ty'Jae Spears though. The rookie has looked explosive in the run and pass game, and could eat into some snaps if Henry still doesn't feel 100%.
Mitch Trubisky, or Mr. Biscuit as we like to refer to him, was pitiful against the Jags. Weather wasn't good, opposing defense was sharp, but still; the Steelers never felt competent on offense. This matchup provides a slightly better opportunity, with Tennessee really struggling against the pass. If (big if) they can keep a good pass rush off of Trubisky, he could have some success finding Diontae Johnson and George Pickens down field.
Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, stay away. Not a favorable draw.
Mike Tomlin is 22-5 against rookie quarterbacks, but fell way short in his most recent attempt against CJ Stroud and the Texans. They're favorites in this game too, against a Vrabel-led underdog. Leaning toward the Titans here, we'll see though!
Starts: Derrick Henry, Deandre Hopkins, Diontae Johnson, George Pickens
Sits: Najee Harris
Sleepers: Calvin Austin, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)
Out to Germany we go, for some early fireworks Sunday. Miami flew out early in the week, while their counterparts waited until Thursday to make the trans-Atlantic voyage-- something worth noting for gambling purposes.
Good chess match between the second ranked Chiefs' pass defense and Tua. The lefty is a legit MVP candidate, but has had some dull games and boneheaded moments. He'll have to be sharp against this opportunistic group.
Having skill guys like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle at 100% helps with that. At least one of them will have a lot of room to work, but I'm excited to see how Jalen Ramsey fares against whoever ventures to his half of the field. Admittedly not a comparable bar, but he had Mac Jones looking the other direction for majority of their game last week.
Which Segways us into a big problem the Chiefs are dealing with: turnovers. Five last week against the Broncos completely doomed them. I don't doubt that they're motivated to show that that was a fluke, but the numbers are suggesting otherwise, as they're currently tied for second most in the entire league with 16. Sandwiched between the Browns and Raiders...not the company you want there.
Patrick Mahomes will be better though, as will Travis Kelce. Miami's given up the sixth most yards to tight ends, which spells a big day for #87. Isiah Pacheco should be respectable on the ground also, low ceiling.
Kansas City losing back to back games would be weird, but I have some concerns surrounding them going into this game. Thinking it'll be relatively high scoring, with their offensive firepower just not having enough juice late against the Dolphins. Take the over and a Miami win
Starts: Travis Kelce
Sits: Skyy Moore
Sleepers: Jerick McKinnon
Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5)
And now we start getting into the real gnarly 1 PM slate, leading off with a Jaren Hall-Taylor Heinicke showdown in Atlanta. Forgive me for not sounding overly enthused.
The Vikings were catching fire on both sides of the ball before the Kirk Cousins Achilles' tear effectively dashed any aspirations of a deep postseason run. Now we have to sit and ask, "what if?" every week as their supremely talented skill players do everything in their power to elevate what's undoubtedly going to be some pitiful quarterback play. Can't imagine it going that well.
Big moment for Heinicke to really establish himself as the Falcons' guy. The team as a whole has been scrappy all year, just screaming out for competent quarterback play to help take it to another level. While Taylor's no All-Pro, he should at least be able to take some calculated risks to help move the ball. At worst, feels like a lateral move from Ridder with the way he'd been playing lately.
Keep an eye on the Drake London situation-- if he's unable to play, it'll mean a lot of looks for Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith. Which plays into one of the strength's of Minnesota's D.
I just don't see how the Vikings take this one. Maybe the defense is really inspired against a suspect Atlanta unit, helping keep the game close while the offense figures something out? Not impossible, but just not what I see happening. Falcons money line and probably the under.
Hammer the under if London sits
Starts: Bijan Robinson, TJ Hockenson
Sits: Any Vikings receiver
Sleepers: Mack Hollins
Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns (-7.5)
Clayton Tune szn. Not sure you could chalk up a worse debut for the rookie either, having to travel up to chilly Cleveland for a date with a top five defense. Rock bottom expectations there.
Not sure any Cardinal is a viable fantasy starter, save maybe Trey McBride-- somebody close to the line for Tune to dump it off too. The whole defense is going to be condensed near the line of scrimmage.
On the flip side, PJ Walker isn't a world beater, but he's not Clayton Tune. With Kareem Hunt beginning to pick up some steam, the Browns should be able to run the ball, opening up a few openings down field for the former XFL QB. Throw in a few short fields and I trust this Cleveland offense to be able to do enough.
Browns might shutout Arizona in this one, but at a minimum they'll cover and win. Take the under too, with some relative confidence.
Starts: Kareem Hunt
Sits: Everyone in a Cardinals uniform
Sleepers: Pierre Strong
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-3.5)
This game will be much more fun with Matthew Stafford available to play. However, a quarterback on a losing team dealing with a thumb sprain with an upcoming bye week...smells like a recipe for a spot on the bench. But it is kind of a make or break spot for the Rams, so definitely worth monitoring.
Brett Rypien would be getting the nod in the event that Stafford cannot suit up, which isn't exciting for Rams fans or Kupp/Nacua fantasy owners. Not 1000% sure he's much worse than Jordan Love though, especially given some of the weapons at his disposal. Darrell Henderson and Royce Freeman will be splitting RB duties for at least one more week.
The aforementioned Love has certainly been hard to love for Green Bay fans. He's actually been looking worse as the season progresses, which is an even bigger red flag when you throw in the fact that this is his fourth year in the league. While rookies like Bryce Young, Will Levis and (sophomore) Sam Howell are making notable strides, the Packers QB seems to literally be working backwards. How frustrating for a franchise ignorant to such problems.
Maybe Aaron Jones can actually get rolling this week on the ground? It'd go a long way to help the embattled quarterback to settle in. But with a bad offensive line and Aaron Donald lined up on the other side of it, difficult to feel confident in that happening.
I'll take the Rams to win if Stafford plays, but give me Green Bay in a squeaker if it's Rypien. Thinking LA should cover regardless
Starts: Darrell Henderson
Sits: Matthew Stafford
Sleepers: Luke Musgrave
Washington Commanders at New England Patriots (-3.5)
At a glance, it's pretty surprising to see the Commanders as 3.5 point dogs here. Road game or not, they're a more talented roster than New England in almost every area, including their recently stripped defensive line. So what gives?
I'm guessing oddsmakers assume that the major trades may shake the morale in the Washington locker room; something that seemed already pretty dim with their two game losing streak to divisional rivals. Maybe they think Bill Belichick as a coach is an X factor over Ron Rivera; an argument that may have some merit to it, at least most years.
Regardless, the game's still got to get played! Sam Howell should be able to throw the ball around with relative success against a think Pats' secondary. He'll want to double check all of his reads though, with Belichick's historical success against young QBs. Brian Robinson should also be able to put up respectable rushing numbers, giving this group some balance overall.
Mac Jones was decent down in Miami, with the potential for another pretty good day here in Foxborough. The Commanders get absolutely destroyed in the passing game, so as a new fantasy owner of Jones, I'm hoping they have one more abysmal performance in them. The loss of Kendrick Bourne won't help things, but keep an eye on how Demario Douglas steps into the new role.
Everything in my head is pointing to Washington winning this. I felt the exact opposite Wednesday night during recording, so will probably steer clear of any direct lines on this game. Ultimately, let's roll with the Patriots at home. Bill Belichick takes down another (proxy) rookie quarterback.
Starts: Mac Jones, Demario Douglas, Brian Robinson
Sits: Ezekiel Elliott
Sleepers: Devante Parker
Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (-8.5)
The Bears weren't a good team with Justin Fields under center. Tyson Bagent temporarily taking the reins hasn't really done much to change that sentiment. Dennis Allen and this Saints' defense should eat him alive. This is another game on big time shut out watch.
Derek Carr had easily his best game for New Orleans last week and is now poised with a prime opportunity to top it. Chicago stops the run well, but get gashed through the air. With the trio of Chris Olave, Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed at his disposal, Carr should be able to pick his poison. Can't forget Alvin Kamara sneaking out of the backfield too.
Interested to see what kind of impact, if any, Montez Sweat brings in his first week as a Bear. Such a strange, senseless trade to me, but that's how bad franchises stay put. We'll see how it works out. Saints win with ease, probably holding Chicago in the single digits.
Starts: Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Derek Carr
Sits: D'Onta Foreman
Sleepers: Rashid Shaheed
Seattle Seahawks at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
Finally, a game worth talking about! Geno Smith and the Seahawks are coming all the way across the country to face the top ranked defense in the league. Historically, that hasn't bode well for the rejuvenated quarterback, but given how he toppled the Browns a week ago, I'll allow the jury to stay out on the matter.
The Ravens corners appeared to be a weakness coming into the year, but have rounded into shape over the last few weeks. Marlon Humphrey's return surely helped that, but Brandon Stephens has been scrappy too. They'll have their hands full against a deep group of wideouts featuring DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, JSN and Jake Bobo. Maybe not the Bengals, but a room you have to respect.
Lamar Jackson's been playing high quality football over much of this season, especially in Baltimore. No reason to think that'll change against a Seahawks' defense that isn't great against the pass. He's also like 17-1 as a pro against the NFC, which is a wild anomaly.
Zay Flowers vs. Devon Witherspoon should provide some fun battles throughout the afternoon, keep an eye on the two rookies. Gus Edwards will be used a lot, but don't expect the same level of production we saw in Arizona against a stingy run D.
Not feeling a blowout, but Baltimore wins this one with relative ease. This is a defense Geno folds against, and while he didn't last week against a similar foe, I have minimal faith he can do it in consecutive games. He'll make 2-3 mistakes that doom the visiting Seahawks, helping the Ravens to win and cover.
Starts: Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, Tyler Lockett
Sits: Gus Edwards
Sleepers: Nelson Agholor
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans (-2.5)
A Gulf Coast showdown here between the Bucs and Texans. Both teams are coming off of tough losses and trying to stay in the hunt for the playoffs.
Tampa's road to the postseason is definitely on a bit of a different schedule, given their skilled but aging roster. It would also almost certainly require winning the NFC South, meaning a game like this is crucial to put in the win column. Baker Mayfield hasn't been bad, but he's not imposing enough downfield to help open up the box for Rachaad White. If they can continue to get White going in the screen/short pass game, it'll at least help keep the defense a little more honest.
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are studs on the outside, who've given Mayfield plenty of windows this season. He's hit them, just not as regularly as we'd like. The Texans' secondary hasn't been great, so the two receivers should be able to put up some respectable numbers.
Houston's overachieved a bit this year, given their youth and overall lack of blue chip talent. Last week in Carolina seemed to highlight that, as they fell to the Panthers, awarding them their first win of 2023. Not a good feeling.
Some might say it'll motivate the Texans to get back in the win column, but I think they're outmatched by Tampa in too many areas here. Dameon Pierce is out now too, taking away a bell cow for them in the backfield. Albeit a super inefficient one.
Let me get the Bucs here as road dogs, love some + money on our parlays.
Starts: Mike Evans, Baker Mayfield
Sits: CJ Stroud
Sleepers: Devin Singletary, Cade Otton
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers
You know that felt good for Bryce Young to finally get that first NFL victory. Now time for #2.
Home dogs again, this time against an Indianapolis team that's been as frustrating as they've been exciting. The Gardner Minshew experience in a nutshell. Not sure I understand the line though.
Carolina's got a pretty decent defense and an offense that can move the ball a little bit. I wouldn't trust them to be able to comeback if they fell down 14-0, but I don't see that happening. Young should be able to connect with Adam Thielen at will, plus Minshew will likely give them a short field or two to help. Indy's also terrible against the run, meaning they may actually eclipse three yards per carry this week!
Going back to the Colts' QB though-- the man is as exciting as they come. If he could just refine it, he'd be a big time gunslinger in this league, but that just doesn't seem like it's going to happen anytime soon. Look for a few big plays paired with a few boneheaded ones, his MO. Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss should each be able to move the ball some on the ground too.
Something in my plums telling, this victory's going to Carolina. I think it'll be close, mucky, a few exciting moments. And the Panthers just pull it out late somehow; a character win for Bryce Young. Either that or the Colts win going away, but I'm leaning to the former.
Starts: Jonathan Taylor, Zack Moss, Adam Thielen
Sits: Kylen Granson
Sleepers: Hayden Hurst
New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5)
Daniel Jones is back, news I don't think many Giants fans were expecting to be excited about. He does give them their best chance to win Sunday afternoon though, against Aidan O'Connell and the calamity that is the Las Vegas Raiders.
New York's quarterback will be without top target Darren Waller, who was just placed on IR with a hamstring injury. Brutal, as the tight end had been picking up steam lately. Brian Daboll would be wise to limit the amount of times he has Jones drop back, especially with how Saquon Barkley's been running the ball. He should get no less than 25 carries against the third worst rush defense.
That kid O'Connell though, he can't be worse than Jimmy Garoppolo or Brian Hoyer. Can't be. He'll at least try to push the ball downfield, not look like a statue in the pocket as pressure absorbs him. Josh Jacobs has almost nowhere to go but up, same for Davante Adams.
Not an easy matchup though against a G-Men defense that's ramped things up of late. They've been good against the pass all season, but now are starting to get after opposing passers with frequency. That could spell trouble for the young QB in Vegas' backfield.
Love the Giants as dogs here, take that plus money again in your parlays. Tough situation for the Raiders.
Starts: Saquon Barkley, Giants defense
Sits: Jakobi Meyers, Darius Slayton
Sleepers: Michael Mayer, Daniel Bellinger
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)
Crazy that this'll be the first time Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott ever show off in the NFL. And we almost didn't have it, as the former is dealing with a sprained knee. He claims it was never in doubt, which is believable given the magnitude of this game.
The Hurts-Brown tandem has literally been unstoppable the last six weeks, but run into the fourth best pass D the league has to offer. Something's got to give! Could be a nice day for Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert against the Cowboys' lesser defenders.
D'Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell should have a little bit of wiggle room in the rushing department too. Expect them to get a bulk of the carries, as Hurts likely won't take a ton of designed runs.
Dak Prescott was fantastic last week, a flash of his true potential when he's on. Or at least when he's at home against an inferior opponent... Neither are the case here, and I expect a coming back to Earth of sorts here. Philly's secondary has been exploitable, so he'll be able to find CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks-- as long as his offensive line can keep the pass rush at bay.
Tony Pollard against the best run defense in football doesn't scream optimism either. I think he'll be more involved in the pass game.
Like the aforementioned Geno Smith, this feels like a game Dak Prescott comes up short in for his team. Just not the type of opponent he excels against, the lights a little too bright. Not saying blow out, but Eagles win and cover. Over probably hits too.
Starts: D'Andre Swift, CeeDee Lamb, Jake Henderson
Sits: Michael Gallup
Sleepers: Kenneth Gainwell
Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
Marquee matchup of week nine here! And Sunday night too, making us wait for it.
Joe Burrow appears to be all the way back, not the most welcome sight as a Ravens fan. He's gone off two of the last three weeks and could really solidify his status with another big performance here. I think he'll do so too against a banged up Bills secondary.
Ja'Marr Chase will be the main benefactor of that, with Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins chipping in as well. Joe Mixon will benefit from the defenses' focus on the pass attack, adding some nice yardage on the ground. Feels like a statement game ahead for the group.
Josh Allen will do his best to prove me wrong. He's also coming off a strong performance last Thursday, also providing the benefit of some extra rest before this one. The Bengals' defense is certainly exploitable, but will he be able to avoid the mistakes he's becoming known for?
Personally, I say no, not this Sunday. Bengals announce that they're all the way back, sending Buffalo back home with a bunch of question marks. Over hits too, this game should be fun
Starts: Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Ja'Marr Chase, Stefon Diggs, Dalton Kincaid, James Cook
Sits: Either defense
Sleepers: Khalil Shakir
Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) at New York Jets (MNF)
Equally interesting matchup to wrap up the week, albeit with a lot less fireworks. The Chargers have to travel all the way across the country, to face one of the league's top defenses that's really starting to come into it's own. Feels like the makings of a Charger-esque meltdown.
Justin Herbert has to be riding high from the clinic he put on against Chicago last Sunday. This'll be a much different task, with some of the best defenders in the league lined up opposite of him. If he's not smart with the ball, Sauce and Co. will make him pay.
Austin Ekeler could be an X factor on the ground. As good as the Jets' D is, they suck at stopping the run. Unfortunately for LA, they're pretty bad at establishing it in their own right. If they can't, it's going to be tough on Herbert.
Zach Wilson just keeps on finding ways to win. The bevy of talent surrounding him surely doesn't hurt matters, but I'll give some credit to the QB who's at least generally been avoiding mistakes. One of the biggest stretches of a compliment I've ever given...
Look for a lot of Breece Hall, with some deliberate effort to get Garrett Wilson involved too. But not too excited for any of these New York offensive guys Monday night.
However, I am excited to close out the article with one more dog! Gang Green gets it done in primetime, at MetLife stadium, stifling the opposing quarterback early and often. Take the under accordingly, as well.
Starts: Jets defense, Austin Ekeler
Sits: Josh Palmer
Sleepers: Tyler Conklin
Records on the season:
53-67 ATS
74-46 SU
63-57 O/U
------
@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, just my opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
Comments
Post a Comment