We're into the double digit weeks of the NFL season...read that again and let it sink in slowly. Let's slow this whole season down honestly, slipping through our fingers. Money to be won though, and hopefully we'll be guiding you to that this Sunday. Let's look ahead at the upcoming action
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-3.5) (Thursday 11/9)
Two pieces of good news for Chicago fans: First, is that Justin Fields should play. Say what you will about the polarizing QB, he'll be better than Tyson Bagent. Second, is that the organization owns the Panthers' top pick in this upcoming draft, so they'll improve their draft capital no matter the result.
If I'm a Bears fan though, this is a game you need to have to justify any confidence in this team moving forward. This Carolina defense is alright, but should be exploitable by Fields if he brings his A game. They also give up a ton of rushing yardage, which plays into the strengths of Chicago, especially with Khalil Herbert slated to return. Not many better opportunities on the schedule to pick up a dominant win.
Bryce Young was bad last week, like very bad. Like gave up more points to cornerback Kenny Moore than he mustered for his offense. Can only go up from here right?
Not so fast! Chuba Hubbard will struggle to get going on the ground, allowing the Bears to pack boxes on early downs as their corners focus more on their assignments. Jaylon Johnson should keep Adam Thielen under control, while the rest of their secondary deals with a pretty subpar group of pass catchers.
Could be an over type game if Justin Fields balls out, but I have some skepticism with it being his first game back. Pretty confident in Chicago taking this one though, especially at home.
Starts: Khalil Herbert, Justin Fields
Sits: Chuba Hubbard
Sleepers: Bryce Young
*Wrote this before the news of Justin Fields not playing. Officially switched pick on Instagram story to Carolina. Was incorrect
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at New England Patriots
Unlike last week's Germany game, this is one you need to be a true football fan to get up for. Gardner Minshew vs. Mac Jones in an international duel, bring your lederhosen.
The Colts disposed of Carolina with ease last Sunday and should have no issue doing the same to the Pats. Jonathan Taylor's been gaining steam as the top dog in the Indy backfield, setting himself up for at least 15 touches here. Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs should also feast on the weak cornerbacks opposite of them.
Will it be Zappe hour in Frankfurt? New England fans surely have grown tired of the Mac Jones experience at this point, with last week being a final straw for many patient and faithful fans. The sentiment, "how much worse could it be?" really does ring true in this situation.
Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott would be huge proponents in the event of an overseas upset. Indianapolis isn't good against the run, so if the two backs can routinely pick up chunk yardage, they could control the ball and clock enough to pull off the surprise.
Feels like two teams moving rapidly in opposite directions though, or maybe it's me just realizing the Patriots are truly one of the worst teams in the entire NFL. That statement would be silly to say almost anytime over the last two decades, but here we are. Give me Gardner Minshew and the Colts to pull out a wonky one.
Starts: Jonathan Taylor, Rhamondre Stevenson, Josh Downs
Sits: Mac Jones
Sleepers: Demario Douglas (for one more week)
Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)
Pretty interesting tussle to kick off the 1 PM slate, with the Texans going up to Cincy. Are we going to get the CJ Stroud we saw in Carolina, posting 140 scoreless yards, or the machine from last week who torched Tampa? Unfortunately, I'm leaning toward the latter.
Lou Anarumo is as good a defensive coordinator as you'll run into, with a unit that's playing pretty well overall-- allowing just 17 PPG over their four game win streak. Factor in that three of those wins were over Seattle, San Francisco and Buffalo, and that number looks even better. With Houston proving so far this year that they're completely incapable of a balanced offensive attack, look for Anarumo to have a master plan in place to stymy the #2 pick.
On the opposite side, Joe Burrow's looked fully healthy and dialed in over the last month-- a scary development for those in the AFC. Baker Mayfield was very productive against this Texans' defense, which should translate into even greater success for the Bengals explosive unit. Should be plenty to go around for his top three wideouts.
I'd love to be wrong about this, but I don't see Houston hanging on the road here. Just not quite as talented a roster, despite overachieving thus far on the back of their young QB. Cincy + the cover and the over.
Starts: Joe Burrow, Dalton Schultz
Sits: Devin Singletary
Sleepers: Irv Smith Jr.
New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Curious which Josh Dobbs will show up this weekend. The man was captivating down in Atlanta, despite not even knowing all of the guy's names he was playing with, but has historically declined in play as his tenure goes. For Minnesota's wild card chances, they're hoping that regression doesn't come for at least one more week.
He'll have his hands full against a stingy Saints defense. They're a top ten unit against the pass, and pretty good against the run too, meaning the journeyman will need a clean, efficient performance to pull the slight upset. Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson have been playing great, which helps, but Justin Jefferson's potential return would be a massive catalyst. Keep an eye on that.
Derek Carr was incredible just two weeks ago, before barely squeaking out a home win against Tyson Bagent and the lowly Bears. And that was being spotted 5 turnovers... He needs to be better this week, or the underrated and improving Vikings defense will make him pay.
Getting Alvin Kamara going on the ground would help with that. He was really ineffective last week in that department, ceding some way to the more physical Taysom Hill. Probably not a development the Saints want to see expanded, as they're clearly better with the explosive Kamara coming out of the backfield.
Something in my gut's telling me that you just can't sleep on Minnesota in this one. Dobbs is bringing in some positive energy, Jefferson's return would give him another top notch weapon, Derek Carr isn't exactly imposing opposition. Home dogs gotta eat, hit the under too.
Starts: Alvin Kamara, TJ Hockenson
Sits: Jordan Addison, Derek Carr
Sleepers: Juwan Johnson
Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
This'll be a dud. Mike Tomlin's going to have a dominant game plan put together to shut down this Packers offense, Jordan Love specifically. The coach just has a way of winning these games with relative ease.
Aaron Jones cleared twenty carries last week, which was encouraging for all the people in Green Bay screaming for more running, but it wasn't a super efficient performance. A date against the fourth worst rush defense in the league should help with that, but Pittsburgh likely won't respect Love's ability to beat them through the air and sell out to shut down the run.
Kenny Pickett hasn't exactly instilled much more confidence in his fan base, but the man is doing enough to win games. It's rarely pretty, but 5-3 is 5-3. The second year QB has shown good chemistry with Diontae Johnson since his return and will eventually get back on the same page with George Pickens.
Jaylen Warren needs to get more touches than Najee Harris again too. The Packers are bad against the run and Warren has looked explosive. Need to utilize that matchup.
Steelers with ease. Jordan Love was pretty average against Brett Rypien and the hapless Rams last week. On the road against a team with a lot more on the line? Forget about it.
Starts: Aaron Jones, Diontae Johnson
Sits: Luke Musgrave
Sleepers: Jaylen Warren
Tennessee Titans (-1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tennessee opening the week as road favorites over Tampa was very surprising to me. That lines' moved slightly since, but still plenty of consensus behind the Titans here.
Hard not to get excited about the recent Will Levis developments. The second rounder was officially named starter for the rest of the year after two convincing starts to kick off his career. He's certainly exceeded the expectations of many, including myself, looking poised and calculated in the pocket. The Bucs' secondary just allowed CJ Stroud to throw for 470 yards on them, so you have to this Levis is excited for this opportunity.
Derrick Henry may have a slightly less fruitful day on the ground against a top ten rushing defense. However, Vita Vea hasn't been 100% over the last few weeks and the unit has faltered some as a result. Hard to think Henry doesn't at least have one big run in him on the afternoon.
The Titans' corners aren't exactly world beaters either, meaning Baker Mayfield may have some shots to take to his talented pass catchers. His offensive line will need to be on their A game though against a front seven that can bring some heavy interior pressure, otherwise it won't matter how open Mike Evans and Chris Godwin get.
Rachaad White's been a bit of a revelation over the last two games, in the short pass and run game. The Titans defend both well, but he should still be given the volume to put up respectable numbers.
Feelin' the Bucs at home here, particularly if you can still find them for plus money. But I must admit, there is a little creeping doubt that Todd Bowles is capable of taking down Mike Vrabel. Don't be surprised if this flip flops. Hit the over too.
Starts: Chris Godwin, Deandre Hopkins
Sits: Rachaad White (in non-PPR)
Sleepers: Will Levis
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Time for one of these teams to step up and announce their spots as true contenders. Both teams rested off a bye, a clear, warm fall day in November-- not an excuse in the book for any missteps.
Brock Purdy was Tom Brady Jr. in the middle of October. Come Halloween and there were calls to bench him, like Sam Darnold isn't his backup. Such is life in the NFL. The week off surely did his brain some good, as a concussion quite possibly started this mini spiral. This up and coming Jags defense will be a challenge though. He should have some success through the air, especially with Deebo Samuel back, but any mistake he makes will be capitalized on by this opportunistic group.
This is a game I hate Trevor Lawrence in. He's still young, so there's time, but he's kind of showing symptoms of that Geno/Dak syndrome, where sometimes the moment is just a little too big for him. A win Sunday would go a long way in dispelling those thoughts from my brain, with San Francisco's iffy secondary ripe for the picking.
Further hampering Lawrence's forecast is the Niners' ability to stuff the run. They're currently allowing the 5th fewest rushing yards per game, which would take a key cog out of Jacksonville's arsenal. Travis Etienne has been an outstanding part of this offense through the first half of the year. I expect Doug Pederson to do what he can to get the ball in his hands.
I have some skepticism regarding San Fran right now, but there's no way they lose four straight right? It has to be the 49ers on the road, but expect it to be tight.
Starts: Deebo Samuel, George Kittle
Sits: Evan Engram
Sleepers: Jamal Agnew
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
Six weeks ago, the Baltimore Ravens put the NFL on notice by going into Cleveland and dismantling what was the #1 defense at the time, despite being down both offensive tackles and their top two wideouts. Now they have an opportunity to put a stranglehold on any outside hope the Browns had at stealing the AFC North.
Lamar Jackson's box score might not always reflect it, but he was damn near unstoppable in the month of October. Far from an easy assignment incoming, but no reason to think he can't take it head on. Mark Andrews has been his favorite target over that stretch, with varied contributions from his wideouts.
Baltimore's running game has been their bread and butter. Gus Edwards has scored 6 of his 7 touchdowns over the last three weeks, averaging just under 5.2 yards per tote during that span. Keaton Mitchell erupted last week to the tune of 138 yards on 9 carries. Even Justice Hill has looked quick and decisive when called upon. If they can get going, it's going to be a long Sunday for the Browns' D.
A major change from their first matchup will be Deshaun Watson under center for this go round. As much as I think Watson's best days are behind him, he's undoubtedly a step up from Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Tough matchup for him though against an equally ferocious defense, one he's struggled against throughout his career at that.
As far as Cleveland's skill guys go, Amari Cooper should have a decent day. His over/under for yards is set at 52.5, which seems like a very approachable over. Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt may break a run or two out, but they'll find running room to be at a premium, especially with starting left tackle Jedrick Wills now on IR.
Utmost confidence in the Ravens money line. Lamar has shown he can play well against this defense, while the Browns simply don't have the firepower on offense to keep up. Not sure it'll quite be 28-3 lopsided, but I think it'll be very apparent who the superior team.
Starts: Lamar Jackson, Ravens defense
Sits: David Njoku, Kareem Hunt
Sleepers: Odell Beckham Jr.
Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Well, the good news for this game is that Kyler Murray appears set to play. So no more Clayton Tune...hallelujah. The bad news is, that it's still the Falcons and Cardinals. Won't be rushing to the TV for this one.
Public pressure to get Bijan Robinson the ball more seems to be ramping up. Arthur Smith's comments last week, essentially likening the rookie to a decoy, rubbed many in the fan base incorrectly. Why pick a guy at such a premium slot to have Tyler Allgeier handle the ball in the red zone? Makes zero sense, classic over coaching.
Drake London should return for Atlanta as well, which'll help Taylor Heinicke have a viable target on the perimeter. He's clicked well with Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith, but taking the defense's ability to condense into the middle of the field will go a long way. On paper, this is a breakout spot for this Falcons' offense.
First game of the year for Kyler, excited to see what he can bring to the table. He's got one of the worst groups of weapons the league has to offer, substantially lowering his ceiling no matter how well he plays. Arthur Smith's D has been really bad though of late, so he may be able to capitalize on some mistakes.
Love the Cardinals as home dogs here, I think Murray will bring some life to a pretty downtrodden group. A loss would really send the Falcons into a tailspin too, would surely be some discontent there.
Starts: Bijan Robinson, Hollywood Brown
Sits: Taylor Heinicke
Sleepers: Tyler Allgeier
Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
Big game for the Chargers if they intend to be taken seriously as contenders down the stretch. They improved to 4-4 last Monday, but their wins are over the Vikings, Raiders, Bears and Jets-- far from a murderer's row. Detroit is talented on both sides of the ball and coming off a bye, so not an easy assignment here.
Justin Herbert really struggled against the New York defense, but should have a little more success against a slightly less stingy secondary. He definitely would benefit from a secondary receiver stepping up, now that Josh Palmer's hit the IR. Where you at Quentin Johnston?
In reality, it'll be Austin Ekeler taking a bunch of dump offs and probably a few slants from the slot to help alleviate the situation. The Lions allow the second fewest rush yards in the league, so don't expect a ton of success for him there.
But those Lions! 6-2, rested, and still motivated to play with Minnesota's continued surge. Tough time to get a tough team. The Chargers have the NFL's worst pass defense, meaning a humongous day on deck for Amon Ra St. Brown-- as long as their offensive line can keep Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa's hands off of Goff. The star pass rushers have been finding their groove of late.
Jahmyr Gibbs has been as well, but runs into a stiffer challenge with a surprisingly good run stuffing unit. Throw in the fact that it's looking likely that David Montgomery returns this week; not the brightest forecast for the rookie. But the glass half full side is that he ran so well in Montgomery's absence, perhaps he stole the RB1 slot, at least between the 20's.
As I said above, huge game for LA. So why wouldn't they find a way to bungle it? The lack of pass catching depth behind Keenan Allen is going to show as this game goes along, while the Lions offense picks up steam. Detroit pulls away late for a nice road victory.
Starts: Amon Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta
Sits: David Montgomery
Sleepers: Jameson Williams
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-16.5)
So, Tommy DeVito...take three. You thought the Raiders defense was tough?
The Cowboys almost fell into a trap last year versus a similarly awful Texans team, as 14-point favorites squeaking out a one score win in the fourth quarter. With this being a divisional matchup though, versus a team in absolutely spectacular disarray, I don't think we'll have many hold your breath moments.
Dallas by massacre, would be very surprised to see New York score more than seven points. FanDuel has their over/under at 10.5 currently-- crush that under.
Starts: CeeDee Lamb, Dak Prescott, Cowboys defense
Sits: Any Giant not named Saquon Barkley, whose also benchable in the right scenarios
Sleepers: Wan'Dale Robinson
Washington Commanders at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)
Fun NFC battle that could have some serious wildcard implications down the road. Seattle returns home after a dismantling at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens. Their pride has to be hurt, on both sides of the ball. Pete Carroll needs to rally the troops for this one.
Geno Smith is a huge part of that. He was completely inept against an admittedly great defense last week. Washington has some talented guys, but they're far from that caliber. Geno's got to get right. Getting DK Metcalf involved would be a big part of that. Their top wideout's been banged up over the last couple of weeks, but has powered through it to play. Unfortunately, the results haven't really been there, with just 13 catches over the last 4 games.
Kenneth Walker's also been pretty boom or bust overall, with the occasional big gain sprinkled in over the course of many 1-2 yard dives. Washington will give up some yards on the ground, so this is a get right opportunity for him too.
Quarterback Sam Howell has over 700 passing yards the last two weeks. He's really starting to round into form as a viable starter in this league, possibly even bordering on good. Jahan Dotson's recently emerged to help with that, racking up 177 receiving yards over that two game span after an ice cold start to his season. It's clearly helped the offense out.
Brian Robinson should have a little room to run as well, but definitely keep an eye on his timeshare with Antonio Gibson. The latter's been creeping more into the picture recently, which isn't a bad thing for the Commanders, but is certainly a red flag for fantasy owners who've enjoyed Robinson's floor of fifteen touches.
Pete Carroll feels a little more motivated, and motivating, than Ron Rivera right now. Seattle shouldn't lose this at home. But give me Washington to cover at least, 6.5 is a lot and Sam Howell's been dealing enough to hang inside that.
Starts: DK Metcalf, Brian Robinson, Sam Howell
Sits: Logan Thomas
Sleepers: Jamison Crowder
New York Jets (-1.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Week 10 continuing with it's trend of stellar standalone games with this Sunday night affair in Sin City. I don't know who needs to hear it, but you're forgiven if this isn't one you stay up for after a busy day of football viewership.
The Jets offense is one of the worst ever fielded in the NFL. I don't have any statistics to back that up off hand, I've just watched enough Zach Wilson to feel confident that that's true. Las Vegas doesn't boast a stellar defense, but they've had much worse units in recent years. Maxx Crosby is still a baller and Nate Hobbs has emerged as an above average cornerback too. In short, they've got more than enough to make it a long afternoon for New York.
Aidan O'Connell's going to have his hands full against an elite Jets defense though. This'll arguably the toughest test the rookie will have to endure this season, so potential for a make or break moment. Given how bad Justin Herbert looked against this group last week, forgive me for being pessimistic. Temper expectations for all the skill players in Las Vegas, spare Josh Jacobs. This game should be close, so he should have plenty of volume.
Hard to imagine Gang Green dropping to O'Connell with how good their D has been, but Zach Wilson truly is that bad. I think the Jets should be able to force a few turnovers and move the ball enough to win, but don't expect many exciting moments. Take the under too.
Starts: Jets defense, Josh Jacobs, Breece Hall
Sits: Aidan O'Connell, Davante Adams
Sleepers: Allen Lazard
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-7.5)
I normally complain about the flex, but higher quality Monday night matchups aren't uninvited. While it may be only midseason, this feels like a must win for the Bills. They've lost 3 of 5 and have looked wholly uninspired during their two wins. Have we seen this team's peak?
Josh Allen crushes bad teams, which Denver surely qualifies as, but he's also prone to turnovers, which has directly led to these games being closer than they need to be. The Broncos having two weeks to prepare for him doesn't play into his favor.
Something that is on Allen's side is the fact that Vance Joseph's defensive unit is far and away the worst in the league. If the QB plays a clean game, this could get out of hand quickly, a la week two versus Las Vegas. Stefon Diggs will get his, per usual, and maybe Ken Dorsey will actually commit to running James Cook against this bottom ranked run D? Don't hold your breath.
Javonte Williams has been a focal point of this Denver offense throughout their two game win streak, racking up 82 and 85 rushing yards on 42 combined carries. Dude's running hard and making opposing front sevens pay for it. He should be in line for another busy evening with some of the major injuries Buffalo's dealing with at linebacker. Controlling the clock is going to be key if they want to pull the upset.
Sean Payton's done a nice job of minimizing what Russell Wilson's had to do during this mini-hot stretch and it's been paying off. If they can keep things close and employ a similar strategy, there's no reason to think Russ can't pull it off again versus this banged up Bills secondary.
Really mixed feelings about this one. I've been conducting the "Bills are done" train for a few weeks now and this feels like a perfect trap. I'll take Denver to cover, acknowledging damn well it could be like 41-10 Buffalo. Probably will be ugly regardless.
Starts: Josh Allen, James Cook, Dalton Kincaid, Javonte Williams
Sits: Russell Wilson, Gabriel Davis
Sleepers: Marvin Mims
Records on the season:
61-73 ATS
80-54 SU
70-64 O/U
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, clearly, just my opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
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