Exciting week six slate on deck for us today, with a bunch of strange AFC vs. NFC matchups, a couple of key divisional games and one more out in London. With football starting at 9:30 AM, we've got a busy day on our hands.
Let's look back at our logic for Thursday's game, then we'll peek the upcoming action
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) (Thursday 10/11)
The Broncos can't be getting up for this game, not after that Jets loss. They don't ever win against the Chiefs (15 straight losses), morale has to be near rock bottom, and now trade rumors surrounding their few talented players are beginning to swirl stronger after Randy Gregory was shipped to San Fran.
Kansas City will win this game, with relative ease, but they hate covering. I fondly remember being burned betting them against the spread two years when Drew Lock, of all people, managed to cover this exact spread in a losing effort. Don't put that stress on yourself, hit the money line and collect some modest winnings.
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Tennessee Titans (London Game)
Nice change of pace to see a London game not featuring the Jaguars. A lot of question marks currently surrounding these two teams, so what better timing for a cross continental trip?
At a glance, it might feel justified to panic after the Ravens meltdown against Pittsburgh a week ago, but that's just how games like that go. Whether it's Charlie Batch, Mitch Trubisky, or Ryan Mallett under center, you can never sleep on either side of that rivalry. So I'm not smashing the panic button like many are on Baltimore right now, but another loss would be concerning.
Lamar was substantially sharper than his box score indicated, with his receivers being credited with six drops. It felt like every play... They cannot be worse, especially with Tennessee's bad cornerbacks opposite of them.
Gus Edwards has as steady as he's been underwhelming, really failing to make any big splashes or secure the spot of RB1. Won't be an easy assignment against a tough front seven, despite just allowing Zack Moss to gash them.
On the Titans' side of things, Ryan Tannehill's been nearly unwatchable. Derrick Henry's really only looked good in one game and is now beginning to cede snaps to Ty'Jae Spears. Deandre Hopkins is still pretty solid, but his ceiling is capped with bad quarterback play. No reason offensively that this team should be able to hang.
But that's what Mike Vrabel gets his guys to do. Bet against them as favorites, hammer them as dogs. +3.5 is an attractive number too. I'll take Tennessee covering in an obnoxious game for us Ravens fans, but I still believe Baltimore pulls out a close one.
Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
An NFC showdown that could very possibly have wild card implications come January, with the Commanders traveling to Atlanta. Sam Howell put up some big numbers on the crappy Bears defense, but most of that came while the team was trailing by double digits. I'm not out on him by any means, but they can't be digging holes like that. Especially not on the road here.
Brian Robinson will play a large factor in that too. The second year man has been an explosive part of Washington's offense, with his involvement directly correlating with their success. The more they can get him going pick up chunk yards and eat clock, the better. Curtis Samuel seems to have emerged as Howell's favorite target, but can't disrespect Terry. The Falcons secondary matches up well against them both though.
Desmond Ridder also posted a nice stat line a week ago, however his big day came in a comeback victory. The man loves winning at home and is slowly starting to warm up with his weapons. Kyle Pitts finally had a good day, Drake London's been more consistent and Jonnu Smith has become a viable target. After what the Commanders let Justin Fields do to them through the air, you know Arthur Smith is drawing something up.
Washington doesn't play the run well either, spelling trouble versus Bijan Robinson. The all-world rookie's set for a massive workload to pace the Dirty Birds. Tyler Allgeier will certainly accrue a dozen or more carries of his own.
I like the Falcons a lot here. Ridder's 31-0 between college and pro ball at home, their defense is playing lights out and they're facing a defense that struggles against what they do best. Atlanta cover and the under
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at Chicago Bears
The battle for the bottom of the NFC North, what a privilege we get to witness. How are the Vikings going to look without Justin Jefferson striking fear into the opposition? KJ Osborn and Jordan Addison are solid wideouts, but they're going to be seeing a lot more attention then they're used to. Plus the rookie Addison was a recent addition to the injury report, a development to keep an eye on.
TJ Hockenson will be busy, with the Bears being a bottom 10 defense against the tight end position. They do surprisingly play the run well though, which should ramp up even more so with no Jettas to contain. Benchable spot here for Alex Mattison.
Has Justin Fields flipped the switch, or is this just another tease for Chicago fans to suffer through? Something tells me, at least from a production/fun/statistical standpoint, that it's the former. I'm not sure anybody is going to feel more confident in him being the man moving forward, but he's really played well since breaking out of his "robot-like state." This Swiss cheese Minnesota defense will provide another trampoline for him to a monster day. DJ Moore will pop accordingly.
Tough to forecast this backfield though, with Khalil Herbert suffering an unfortunate ankle injury last Thursday. Might be D'Onta Foreman's one opportunity to get himself out of the dog house. Desperation play fantasy-wise, but the volume should be there.
Kirk Cousins has actually been bad at one o'clock this season, really throwing my metrics for a loop. On paper, he wins this game while posting a nice box score. But with no JJ and the weirdness surrounding his first couple of games, give me the home dogs here to win outright! And the over, points will be scored.
Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)
Geno Smith's knee is fully cleared which gives the green light for some potential fireworks in this one. The Seahawks seem to get up for big games, which this surely qualifies.
Their QB should have some pretty opportune matchups to exploit on the perimeter, as long as they can keep a pretty good Cincy D line at bay. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett should each be productive. Kenneth Walker's going to have a strong showing on the ground too against a defense that was getting gashed by James Conner prior to his knee injury. If Seattle can use the run game to control the clock, it'll go a long way.
That was the Joe Burrow/Ja'Marr Chase we've been waiting patiently for through this first month. They're as explosive a QB/WR combo as you'll find outside of Tua/Tyreek, and may need to be to pick up the win Sunday. Tee Higgins is still far from 100%, Tyler Boyd seems like he's lost a step and Joe Mixon isn't much more then average (despite his contract).
A lot of people love the over in this game, currently set at an approachable 44.5. It's completely on the table, but I'm less confident because I want to see Burrow ball out one more time before I anoint him as all the way back. So I think there's either like 43 points scored in this game or 60+, with the Seahawks covering.
San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) at Cleveland Browns
Deshaun Watson's still on the mend and has yet to practice this week. I'm not sure it'd make a difference in the outcome of this game, but for Amari Cooper/Jerome Ford fantasy owners, it's a devastating development. Temper expectations for each accordingly as they run with PJ Walker under center.
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| Photo: Ezra Shaw/ Getty Images |
The Browns do have a great defense, but how many short fields will they be able to handle? Against as potent an offense as the league has to offer at that. The time of possession discrepancy is going to be crazy, ultimately destroying any chance Cleveland has of an upset.
Niners by a lot, thinking I like the under too. Very well could be a shutout.
Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins (-13.5)
If you thought last game was going to be uncompetitive, this one here may have a beer for you to hold.
Bryce Young at least has appeared more comfortable taking chances over the last two games, which is huge for his growth. The stagnant, sack-taking, dump off fests we'd been seeing weren't working for anyone... He'll have plenty of chances to throw this weekend as Carolina likely plays from behind majority of the sixty minutes.
Despite that, Adam Thielen's probably the only fantasy starter in this group. Maybe Hayden Hurst in a pinch.
The Panthers are better against the pass than the run, so it may be a bigger day for Raheem Mostert than others. With Devon Achane hitting the IR, the entrenched RB1 is poised for massive volume. Tyreek Hill will probably catch a long touchdown too, that's just what he does.
Dolphins by whatever they want, whenever they take their foot off the gas
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5)
First place in the division on the line in Duval! Gardner Minshew returning to his original stomping grounds with a well rounded Colts team behind him. The perennial top backup has played well in relief of Anthony Richardson, but now will need to string together at least a month of good play to keep his team in the playoff race. No reason to think he can't.
Jacksonville's defense has been playing better, to their credit, but they're not yet a top tier unit. Could there be a coming to Earth Sunday? Don't expect Zack Moss or Jonathan Taylor to lead that charge at least, as they're fifth best against the run. Michael Pittman Jr and Josh Downs though, should be busy, especially if the Jags offense plays up to their potential.
Trevor Lawrence was really sharp over the last two weeks in London, something he hopes didn't get confiscated going through customs. They should be able to be balanced offensively, with Lawrence peppering Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk all afternoon.
Tough spread here, but I am leaning toward Jacksonville winning and the over. Think it'll be fun.
New Orleans Saints (-1.5) at Houston Texans
Don't expect fireworks with these two teams, but we'll get to learn a lot about both from this game. How does CJ Stroud fare as a home dog versus a good defense? Can Derek Carr continue to play above average for New Orleans?
To address the former, the #2 pick's best games have come against the Colts, Jaguars and Steelers-- all in the bottom half of the league in passing yards allowed. His tougher games came against Baltimore and Atlanta, who are each top ten against the pass. The Saints come in at #4. Thinking it'll be a tough matchup for him, but one that they could keep close with a strong performance by Dameon Pierce and a good showing by the D.
I'm not a believer in Derek Carr, but he'll normally win you the games he's supposed to. Seems to be the case thus far this year as well. Chris Olave is due to show up at some point in the near future, in the meantime Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara will contribute. Starting to slowly warm up on New Orleans.
Which is why we're picking them! Dennis Allen's defense is going to be just a little too much for the rookie, helping the under cash too.
New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders (-3.5)
This game's going to be ugly and weird. Word on the street is Will Grier, not Bailey Zappe, would be the play in the event of a third consecutive benching for Mac Jones. Enviable spot to be in, huh? Just a bleak forecast surrounding the offense as a whole.
The Raiders ground out a tough win Monday night over the Packers, but now will be without top corner Nate Hobbs. Great offense to be up against if you're down your best cover guy, but Jones has to have some kind of respectable game in him right? Somewhere? Maybe?
Davante Adams should be open a lot, Jakobi Meyers revenge game against the only other team he's known is a fun storyline too. Anytime TD prop?
It's hard to type this, but I think the Pats win in Las Vegas. I can't really tell you why, outside of the fact I have a fundamental issue believing Josh McDaniels could beat Belichick. This game will be very telling about where Bill's at in his career.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)
As fun as Arizona has been, James Conner's injury cannot be overlooked. They went from competing with Cincy to being run out of the stadium after he went down. Getting Keontay Ingram back at least...provides some depth to the backfield. But not a needle mover. Keep an eye on rookie Emari Demercado, kid showed out in his first real chance to.
Matthew Stafford seemed thrilled to get Cooper Kupp back a week ago, connecting with him six times on the first drive alone. Expect a lot of the same against a secondary that just got embarrassed by Ja'Marr Chase. Puka's going to get his too, while Kyren Williams loads up on touches.
Feels pretty cut and dry, but we know divisional games never are. No way the Rams lose though
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at New York Jets
Don't let this line fool you, this game could get ugly in a hurry for Philadelphia against a Jets defense that should be fired up. This'll be a real test for Jalen Hurts, who's been magnificent for much of the season, but equally inconsistent at other points. Will be interested to see which of his three stud pass catchers he'll click with in the Meadowlands, with Devonta Smith being the odd man out in week five.
Zach Wilson has been slowly showing he can...not completely dismantle a good roster. Gotta start somewhere I suppose. He'll benefit from catching Philly while they're down Darius Slay and Jalen Carter-- both huge losses for the defense. Possible that Garrett Wilson can put together a nice Sunday?
Breece Hall won't have any easy running lanes like he did in Denver, not against the top rush D in the league, but best believe he's going to get the ball regularly if New York can keep it close. He's always due to pop one too, so can never rule that out.
Let's go Jets' cover and the under. Neither offense should do too much; maybe Gang Green sneaks an upset?
Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Real chess match incoming between the Bucs and Lions. Each team's defense has played very well, some would even say beyond expectations. Expect that to continue in this slugfest.
David Montgomery is going to be a driving force for Detroit, softening up a tough interior line. Not expecting wild production, but there should be plenty of volume.
Jared Goff's top weapon Amon Ra St. Brown is back, a welcome sight to an offense that didn't really struggle in his absence. He'll get his targets, early and often. Sam LaPorta has a tougher draw, with Tampa defending tight ends well through their first four games.
Baker's certainly not angry about his top weapon Mike Evans returning from a hammy scare. He and Godwin have been a solid tandem, giving Baker Mayfield two quality options on any given pass play. They should be able to eke out some room, but neither should go crazy. Nor should Rachaad White, going up against a run D that's giving up less than 70 a game to opposing backs.
No reason Detroit should lose this game, but what a statement victory it'd be for Baker's career to pull it off. At home...my gut's saying Bucs
New York Giants at Buffalo Bills (-14.5)
Daboll goes back to Buffalo, that's how they'll try to sell this. Outside of that, it's a bad Giants team being led by Tyrod Taylor. Going into a primetime tussle against one of the top teams in the AFC that just got beat on overseas and will be keen on revenge.
Bills cover easily, possibly covering the over singlehandedly.
Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (Monday 10/16)
Is this a bigger make or break game for Mike McCarthy or Brandon Staley? The latter is coming off a bye, with a team needing to turn things on sooner than later to stay on pace in a tight AFC. The former is coming off an embarrassing primetime beatdown that has many questioning their composure. Not expecting either to get canned this week, but a bad showing will heat those seats.
Justin Herbert should be able to throw with relative ease against a banged up Dallas secondary, as long as the offensive line can keep Micah Parsons away. The man's a game wrecker and understands the importance of this game. Look for Keenan Allen to continue his torrid campaign.
Austin Ekeler is back, adding explosiveness and balance back to the Chargers offense. Joshua Kelley was a real let down in his absence, one that Herbert could account for at least. Ek's going to get bountiful welcome-back touches.
LA's defense flipped their script from 2022, now finding themselves in the basement for pass defense and middle of the pack against the run. One thing Dak's got going for him, as he looks to redeem himself from a pathetic performance last Sunday. Tony Pollard will have a similar role to Ekeler, presumably with a little less wiggle room.
Fantasy owners everywhere (me) are hoping this is the week for CeeDee Lamb. He hasn't been posting 0'fers...but he hasn't been living up to his draft hype either. Perfect opportunity in front of him in what looks to be a high scoring affair.
I like the over and I think I like the Chargers to pull it out. No faith in Dallas until I see it against a quality opponent.
Records on the season:
38-40 ATS
50-28 SU
41-37 O/U
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, just my opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
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