To week seven we go! We've got six teams on bye, so only thirteen games to bet on this weekend. Choose wisely... A lot of home dogs to discuss, plus a few big favorites, but overall this should be a pretty tight slate. We can't wait 'til it's upon us.
Also going to now be including my fantasy advice within these columns. Just seems like a more efficient way to get both pieces of information out. Shoot me some feedback on if this new method is working for you or I should go back to the separate pieces.
Love y'all, let's jump into things
Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints (-1.5) (Thursday 10/19)
Interesting matchup here to kick off week seven, with Jacksonville sliding down the Gulf Coast to visit the Saints. Derek Carr has been officially cleared from his AC injury, so he'll be as good to go as he can be in this one. A few weeks ago, this looked like a premier matchup for him, but the Jags defense has been playing really well the last couple of games. I expect they'll make it a tough night for Carr, in and out of the pocket.
Alvin Kamara is going to continue to be a workhorse, in the rushing attack and with the dump offs. Chris Olave and Michael Thomas will get their use too, with the former likely pacing the way. Again though, temper expectations for this whole group against an improving Doug Pederson D.
This is the kind of game where Trevor Lawrence struggles I think. On the road, against a pretty strong defensive unit in it's own right and possessions may be at a premium. Just a pressure he hasn't handled that well historically. But they'll move the ball, especially if Etienne can get going to soften up the pass rush.
Between Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley, whoever sees more of Marshon Lattimore is going to produce less. Hard to predict how his assignment is going to line up. The Saints have also only allowed 171 yards to tight ends all year, spelling a quiet evening for Evan Engram.
Ugly Thursday nighter, nothing new there. No reason the Jaguars don't get this victory, outside of Trevor Lawrence laying a complete egg. Far from impossible... I like the under too, both of these defenses are playing well.
Starts: Alvin Kamara, Travis Etienne
Sits: Trevor Lawrence, Evan Engram
Sleepers: Taysom Hill, Rashid Shaheed
Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) at Chicago Bears
This Sunday showdown could offer us Tyson Bagent vs. Brian Hoyer: the polar opposite of must watch TV.
Coinciding with the backup fest is the fact that both of these teams have been playing good ball defensively these last two weeks. That spells disaster for points here. Hard game to get a read on, but I think you trust Brian Hoyer's experience and weapons to get the job done, even on the road. Plug the under too and check in on this box score no earlier than 4:30
Starts: Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, D'Onta Foreman
Sits: DJ Moore
Sleepers: Michael Mayer
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at Indianapolis Colts
The backup parade marches on, with PJ Walker squaring off against Gardner Minshew in Lucas Oil Stadium. Should be more visually palatable than the previous game at least.
Gardner started hot for Indianapolis this year, but has quickly tapered off as more has been asked of him at the position. Pretty par for the course for his career trajectory, which isn't any shade-- he's a backup for a reason. But it's going to get uglier before it gets better for Indy, especially with this defense coming to town. They're going to feast on the fifth year QB.
On the flip side, all Cleveland is asking Walker to do is not give the game away. With that aforementioned defense and their ability to run the ball, even without Nick Chubb, the Browns are as tough an out as any in the league. The former XFL star was up to the challenge last week, against a tougher San Francisco D at that.
Amari Cooper was a big recipient of his QB's attention in their week six upset win, catching four balls for 108 yards. He'll have an easier time this Sunday connecting through the air, with the Colts boasting a bottom ten secondary.
Taking the Browns to get it done, and I think with relative ease. They're fielding the best defense we've seen in decades right now, and if they staying rocking, it's going to be a really tough day for Minshew.
Starts: Amari Cooper, Jerome Ford
Sits: Colts running backs, Michael Pittman Jr
Sleepers: PJ Walker
Buffalo Bills (-8.5) at New England Patriots
Here comes Mac Jones, trotting back out there for the Patriots again. Wonder if he'll make it all sixty minutes this week?
I called Buffalo's game versus the Giants last Sunday a get-right game, that they promptly floundered, nearly losing outright as -15.5 favorites. Which brings us to this week, a showdown with a limping divisional rival that they can really bury with a win. Both sides of the ball need to be motivated, but then they need to actually execute.
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| Photo: Gregory Fisher/ USA Today Sports |
Two weeks ago, it was the defense allowing a dozen or more chunk plays to Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley that cost them a close one in London. Last week, it was the offense, only mustering 14 points (all in the fourth quarter) against a defense that hadn't been playing well. The frustrating inconsistency has most people completely forgetting about their 48-20 whooping of the Dolphins just at the beginning of the month. This needs to be a game like that, so Bills fans can exhale.
If the Patriots are going to stand a chance, they need to establish the run. Ezekiel Elliott's actually looked fairly fresh battering front sevens with Rhamondre Stevenson, when the contests have been close enough to actually run the ball. The Bills have the eighth worst rush defense, so clock control while taking the ball out of Josh Allen's hands, and Mac Jones' in reality, is a strategy they'd be wise to pursue.
Josh Allen's owned New England over the last three years, going 6-1 with a 16.7 point average margin of victory. Like Captain Insaneo, expect Buffalo to show no mercy on Sunday.
Starts: Stefon Diggs, Rhamondre Stevenson
Sits: Hunter Henry
Sleepers: Latavius Murray
Washington Commanders (-2.5) at New York Giants
Fourth straight road favorite on the 1 PM docket, featuring two NFC East teams. Washington is trying to build up some momentum after a gritty road win in Atlanta, while the Giants are trying to figure out how their season got this out of hand this quickly. Two very different trajectories.
Sam Howell hasn't taken the starting quarterback role by storm, but he has been generally productive, outside of the Buffalo game anyway. He'll need to be calculated in his risks against a defense that's got some talent on it. Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel have definitely enjoyed his play.
Big day for the running backs, with both teams struggling to contain opposing rushing attacks. Both guys are going to get 15+ carries, with Barkley having the potential for 25 or more if the game stays close.
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| Photo: Susan Walsh/ AP |
Tyrod Taylor being under center was a steadying hand to a group that'd been flush with turnovers, but can he stage a similar encore? Washington's defensive line is aggressive, good and deep, which'll pose huge problems when he drops back. Look for a lot of scrambles and dump offs, with a few opportunities to look for Waller or Slayton down field.
Feels like the Commanders win this game, but I think it'll be competitive. Also have warmed to the over as I've worked through this segment, both offenses should be able to implement their preferred gameplans.
Starts: Brian Robinson, Saquon Barkley, Curtis Samuel
Sits: Jahan Dotson
Sleepers: Wan'Dale Robinson
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)
First place in the NFC South on the line down in Tampa Bay, where Baker Mayfield's looked a little less imposing of late. The former #1 pick's laid eggs in two of his last three starts, although those were against top ten defenses like Philly and Detroit. They'll be seeing another on Sunday with Atlanta coming to town.
With no running game to speak of, it has been difficult for Mayfield to keep defenses honest, even during his strong performances. Curious if they'd kick the tires on a Leonard Fournette reunion, not that he'd necessarily represent a big upgrade. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are going to have to work to make space against Jeff Okudah and AJ Terrell, but the Falcons' lack of pass rush will help that happen.
Desmond Ridder has everyone's stamp of approval, now he's got to go show he can consistently earn it. The man was atrocious versus Washington and now draws a stingy Bucs D in a high stakes early season matchup. Not a premier bounce back opportunity. He and Drake London will be able to connect a decent bit, but the tight ends are going to have a tough go with Devin White.
Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier will also be dealing with White, plus Vita Vea in front of them. Room on the ground is going to be hard to come by for the talented pair.
Both of these teams feel like a path to a divisional title is realistic, but winning a game like this against a non-elite opponent is critical for either of their respective goals. This group in Tampa been there before and have enough leadership that they should be able to pull this one out at home. The under looks appealing too.
Starts: Drake London
Sits: Rachaad White, Tyler Allgeier
Sleepers: Cade Otton
Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
Game of the week here! Two presumptive juggernauts going toe to toe to declare themselves true contenders. Should be a lot of fun.
Lamar Jackson's numbers don't always show it, but he's shined as a passer early on in this Todd Monken system. He's in the MVP discussion if his receivers decide to catch even a few of the drops they've had... But regardless, big test incoming with this underrated defense. Aidan Hutchinson needs to be priority number one to take away. He could cause a ton of problems if a good plan isn't schemed up for this offensive line.
If the Ravens are going to put up big rushing yards, they're going to come from Lamar. Detroit's #1 against the run, though that's undoubtedly aided by the fact that they're usually playing with a lead. Establishing any bit of balance offensively could open things up a good bit. Mark Andrews will be the top Baltimore target too, with the Lions giving up the fourth most yards to the position.
Opposite of Jackson, Jared Goff's also emerged as a legit dark horse in the MVP race, averaging 270 YPC and completing 70% of his passes with an 11:3 TD:INT ratio. Really solid. The Ravens secondary has had it's question marks, even with Marlon Humphrey's recent return. I regretfully type that I don't think Goff will struggle Sunday, nor will his receivers.
The running situation will be interesting however, with Jahmyr Gibbs seemingly finding himself in line to be the workhorse. Detroit's been slow to ramp up his workload however, so don't be shocked if Craig Reynolds ends up vulturing some touches.
We saw history last time these teams squared off, with Justin Tucker connecting on a 67-yarder to send the Ravens off as unlikely winners. Should be some more points this go round, with a similarly close finish. I'll take the Lions to cover and the over.
Starts: Amon Ra St. Brown, Mark Andrews, Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff
Sits: Gus Edwards
Sleepers: Josh Reynolds, Isaiah Likely
Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)
Out to LA we go, for a classic tilt between the Rams and the Steelers. Two teams sitting right about .500, slightly outperforming expectations thus far, making this a crossroads for each.
Kenny Pickett and the Pittsburgh offense have been supremely bland, outside of a few spectacular plays here and there-- mainly by George Pickens. That'll probably be the case this Sunday too, traveling cross country to face a decent Rams defense. Expect to see Pickett flushed from the pocket pretty regularly by Aaron Donald.
Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris should rack up a good bit of carries against a front that isn't great against the run. Modest expectations as always, but their production will be crucial in the Steelers' bid to pull off the upset.
The Rams' offense had been good with Puka Nacua, but they're really clicking through the air now that Cooper Kupp's back. He's a really special talent, simpatico with Stafford. Both receivers may have to bare a little more of the brunt with LA down to their third string running back. The loss of Kyren Williams definitely can't be understated, he'd been incredibly effective since stepping in as RB1.
On paper, Los Angeles just seems a little better in some key areas. But Mike Tomlin's made a legacy on going .500 or better, and these are the kinds of games you win to achieve those marks. Plus, he's never lost to Sean McVay or Matthew Stafford. Something intangible here...Steelers win.
Starts: Cooper Kupp, Najee Harris
Sits: Tyler Higbee
Sleepers: Calvin Austin, Zach Evans
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5)
Seattle had every opportunity to walk out of Cincinnati with a win last week, but almost literally threw them all away. That makes this one a can't lose if they want to maintain their spots as a top team in the NFC.
Going back home won't hurt things, nor will facing the scrappy yet undermanned Cardinals. Geno Smith was productive through the air, but couldn't finish drives in Cincy. Good opportunity to change that here, even if DK Metcalf is unable to play. Tyler Lockett will absorb most of those targets, but look for Jake Bobo to see an uptick too.
Kenneth Walker will have a good bit of room to rumble on the ground, with a high likelihood to find pay dirt once again. Walker's scored every week but the first this season, good for six total. Zach Charbonnet's likely to take a few carries too in a game Seattle should lead throughout.
Josh Dobbs' days as a starter in Arizona are numbered with Kyler Murray's three week return window open. He certainly was never going to steal the job, but a good showing here would help him maintain the backup role beyond this year. Tough defense to do it against however.
Damien Williams and Keontay Ingram will be the workhorses in the backfield, at least as long as the game is competitive. Wouldn't consider starting either in a week that there weren't six teams on bye in.
Seahawks need to bury this inferior opponent at home. And they will, in a complete performance in front of the twelfth man. Feels like the Cardinals have slowly been coming back to Earth, this week could be the crater.
Starts: Kenneth Walker, Tyler Lockett
Sits: Hollywood Brown
Sleepers: Jake Bobo, Trey McBride
Green Bay Packers (-1.5) at Denver Broncos
This game's going to suck. I don't expect to see it much on my NFL RedZone, which won't be an upsetting development.
Jordan Love would be wise not to throw near Patrick Surtain II, everyone else in the secondary should be approachable. Aaron Jones playing, and being anywhere near 100%, would be huge for Green Bay. Having their full arsenal of pass catchers is nice, particularly Luke Musgrave. No team's given up more yards to tight ends than the Broncos.
Russell Wilson's been good overall, minus that disaster last Thursday, but the Packers have a solid pass defense. Will be interested to see how pedestrian they can make him look. Temper expectations for all of his receivers as a result. Javonte Williams should be able to roll on the ground, the kid's ran angry lately.
I'm cheering for Green Bay, not trying to catch much of the game itself. Hard to get a read on though, especially in Denver. Could see a weird way that the Broncos manage to cover this miniscule spread.
Starts: Javonte Williams, Luke Musgrave
Sits: Jerry Jeudy, Russell Wilson
Sleepers: Jaleel McLaughlin, Jayden Reed
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)
Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack. I can give you 100 reasons why LA should be able to pull the upset.
There's no need to overthink this though, not against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. He's 7-2 all time against the Chargers, with multiple touchdowns in seven of those games. As sure a thing as you can ask for.
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| Photo: Cooper Neill/ Getty Images |
Andy Reid is going to coach a clinic over Brandon Staley, pulling out the win, some way or another. LA may cover, but no way they pull out a victory.
Starts: Isiah Pacheco, Patrick Mahomes
Sits: Justin Herbert
Sleepers: Donald Parham, Justin Watson
Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)
This Sunday night matchup feels a little trappy for Philadelphia. They're banged up, coming off a tough loss and facing one of the hottest teams the league has to offer. What could go wrong?
Darius Slay should play, which is a huge boost to a secondary that'd been underperforming in his absence. Tua has his full arsenal of weapons though, so it may not matter much, as long as Miami's offensive line can keep him upright. Their staple bombs to Tyreek Hill take time to develop, which is easier said than done against this aggressive front seven.
Raheem Mostert seems poised for a more modest day by his standards, running into the #2 rush defense. Jeff Wilson is back and active too, which'll cut into his touches a little. Hard to get away completely from his hot hand, but they showed with Devon Achane that they'll spread the love around on the ground.
Jalen Hurts has shined for a large portion of the year, while completely withering the rest of the time. The trend finally caught up to them against the Jets, resulting in their first loss of the year. The Dolphins' potent offense will punish his mistakes much more, so he can't be reckless with the ball.
D'Andre Swift should be able to run the ball some. Having that balance should help #2 get it done in the pocket, or at least not have to shoulder the load. Miami's cornerbacks aren't anything tantalizing either, meaning a big day for AJ Brown. Maybe Devonta Smith will reappear?
Dolphins' are tasty dogs here, I'm firing them up this Sunday night. Too much offense for a Philly defense that's playing shaky right now, and just enough defense to keep Hurts at bay. The over seems to be the move too.
Starts: AJ Brown, Tyreek Hill, D'Andre Swift
Sits:
Sleepers: Jeff Wilson, Kenneth Gainwell
San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Interesting Monday night tussle to wrap up week seven. The San Francisco 49ers lost some really key guys to injury on the offense last week-- namely Christian McCaffery, Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel. The latter two will almost definitely see no playing time, while CMC remains an optimistic wild card.
All that being said, Brock Purdy looked (understandably) bad with his depleted unit last week. Granted, it was against one of the better defenses of the century thus far, but it was a sharp regression that does lend some concern to this week. Minnesota's D is far from Cleveland, but they've played better ball the last two weeks. This isn't nearly the layup the line suggests.
Kirk Cousins' non- 1 PM performances this season have been far more useful then his previous endeavors. Tough assignment though with a loaded San Francisco front seven. He'll need to get rid of the ball quickly and try to incorporate some screens to keep them honest.
No Justin Jefferson definitely doesn't help their chances, nor does the fact that the Niners give up the fourth least yards to tight ends. Jordan Addison and KJ Osborn will need to make some key plays to help Skol move the ball down field.
Wouldn't shock me if the Vikings pull this off honestly, but I will give the 49ers the win here. But Minnesota covering 6.5 at home, shouldn't be an issue.
Starts: Brandon Aiyuk
Sits: Alexander Mattison, Brock Purdy
Sleepers: KJ Osborn, Jajuan Jennings
Records on the season:
40-51 ATS
56-35 SU
50-41 O/U
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, just my opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
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