Wild start to week five with that Bears upset over Washington! Entering as touchdown dogs, they completing dominated whistled to whistle, pulling off the 40-20 victory. With news breaking of Dick Butkus' passing just hours before the game, it was a stone cold lock if I'd ever seen one.
Love a lot of the underdogs this week and I think Chicago set a nice tone for them to march into the week on. But please, let me tell you why
Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders (-6.5) (Thursday 10/5)
Both of these teams are squaring off on a short week off a loss. The Commanders forced OT with the Eagles, going toe to toe with the NFC Champs all afternoon. The Bears blew a 21 point lead to the previously winless Broncos to lose in regulation. Two incredibly different defeats to bounce back from.
I think this'll be a fun game. Sam Howell's been pretty alright, outside of whatever he did versus Buffalo, and should be able to move this offense down the field at will against the third worst pass D in the league. Terry McLaurin's going to feast, as should Curtis Samuel. Maybe a trip to the end zone for a second straight week for Jahan Dotson?
All very possible. Brian Robinson's recent performances have solidified him as the clear cut workhorse for Washington, priming him for another nice day here-- especially if they can jump ahead early.
Justin Fields has played better since referring to his play as robotic and should be able to continue that in Raljon. Outside of a wildly talented D line, the Commanders have a pretty average defense. DJ Moore should be targeted often, when Fields isn't having to scramble due to the pocket collapsing.
Khalil Herbert finally emerged last week against Denver, right as I benched him at 12:58 in fantasy. Was in a desperate spot considering starting him initially...but we pulled out the W. If Chicago's smart though, they'll work hard to establish the run. Controlling the clock and keeping an aggressive front seven at bay for their quarterback will go a long way toward them pulling an upset.
Let me get the Commanders to win at home, but I do think the Bears will keep it interesting. Just not sure DC's a whole touchdown better, especially if Fields breaks out. He's so volatile, always hard to say. Love the over too
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-5.5) (In London)
Nice little paid vacation for Jacksonville here, getting two consecutive weeks out in London. Much tougher matchup though than the Falcons, with Buffalo crossing the sea for the international matchup.
The Bills look like the best team in the AFC right now, if not the entire NFL. Josh Allen is playing nearly flawless football, James Cook has paced them on the ground, Stefon Diggs is still a baller and he's actually starting to get some help from Gabriel Davis and the tight ends. They're going to put up a ton of points on this bad Jaguars defense.
Will Trevor Lawrence be able to keep up? He's working with the best weapons of his career, but a shaky offensive line and some inconsistent play hasn't help him through the first quarter-ish of 2023. Tre'Davious White being out with a torn Achilles' makes it an easier matchup, but this Buffalo D is arguably playing better than the offense.
Expecting kind of a stinker from Jacksonville honestly, really bad matchup for them. I'd love for Josh Allen to sack Josh Allen, pretty sure this has happened at least once. Just a fun story line. Give me the Bills to cover, probably sneaking an over too
Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)
I'm actually surprised that Houston is an underdog here. I know it's in Atlanta, that the Texans aren't that good against the run and that Desmond Ridder is undefeated in home games for his entire career (which is a wild stat). But have you been watching these two teams?
CJ Stroud and the boys are moving the ball through the air at will. Nico Collins has blossomed into a bona fide star, with Tank Dell and Robert Woods to pick up the slack on his off days. Even Dalton Schultz made his way to the end zone last week, showing improvement chemistry with the rookie QB. AJ Terrell, Jeff Okudah and Jessie Bates have come together to form a solid secondary for the Dirty Birds, so expect some fun battles on the outside.
Dameon Pierce has finally started to find some room on the ground, which should only continue to trend positively as their offensive line slowly returns to action. Modest expectations this Sunday however.
If you watched that London game last week, even in Toy Story-vision, I'm not sure how you could have any confidence in Desmond Ridder under center. He used to at least protect the football better, but that's gone out the window recently as Atlanta's found themselves trailing. This Houston defense should be somewhat exploitable, but he's not trustable right not. Crazy that Taylor Heinicke hasn't received more consideration.
It only took like two weeks, but this has become Bijan's backfield. Tyler Allgeier made a slight argument early that he'd remain pretty involved, but he's just not on the same level. Mr. Robinson's going to have another very busy afternoon.
Drake London is startable in fantasy too, especially with the bye weeks beginning. And Jonnu Smith surpassing Kyle Pitts on the depth chart?? Arthur Smith came out this week saying their alleged generational tight end didn't fully recover from his knee injury, playing into his lack of production. Maybe he's just not that good?
Let me get Houston in the minor upset! And I think the over too, enough offense between these two squads.
Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-9.5)
Nothing in me believes this game will be competitive. The Panthers at least have an average defense, so they might not make things a cake walk for Jared Goff and Company, but they're going to wear down as the game goes. You'll never get a gimme in the NFL, but this is a game Amon Ra St. Brown can probably afford to miss to rack up an extra week of rest.
Bryce Young's incapable of sustaining drives at this point in his career, while Detroit's playing really well on both sides of the ball. They're going to get after the young QB, Aidan Hutchinson in particular-- introducing himself to the fellow #1 pick.
Lions by slaughter, plus the under. I just don't see Carolina putting up enough to clear 44.5.
Tennessee Titans (-1.5) at Indianapolis Colts
This feels like I'm walking right into a trap. Colts playing well offensively, doing enough defensively, getting Jonathan Taylor back...yet they're home dogs to the Titans? Maybe it's me, but something doesn't add up.
DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart should be able to secure their half of the line of scrimmage for most of the game against an iffy Titans' offensive line. Derrick Henry finally showed up last week and could have some lanes against a defense he's owned historically.
Ryan Tannehill won't want to hold onto the ball too long though, or Indy's underrated pass rush will make him pay. Deandre Hopkins should also have some room to work versus a secondary that just gave up 163 yards to Puka Nacua. Plenty of reasons why Tennessee could pull this out.
But that kid Anthony Richardson, dude can ball. The #4 pick was dormant through the first thirty minutes before exploding last week, leading a furious 23 point comeback in an overtime loss to the Rams. If he can get going earlier, which should be doable against the crappy Titans' cornerbacks, then the Colts should be in good shape.
Jonathan Taylor's return should be a big boost for the offense as well. Zack Moss played well in his absence, but Taylor's just on a different level. The two combine for a nice tandem. Michael Pittman Jr. is poised for a breakout too after being nearly shut out a week ago.
History says go with Tennessee here, but it feels like a changing of the guard to some extent or another. Let me get Indy to at least cover, keeping this competitive throughout. I keep thinking over too, we'll see if that changes over the next 24 hours here.
New York Giants at Miami Dolphins (-11.5)
If you search up "get right game" in the dictionary, this is what you're going to see. The Dolphins have to be angry, embarrassed and motivated after the shellacking they took at the hands of Buffalo last Sunday. Possibly an unwatchable game for Giants' fans.
Tua should be able to have some success finding his speedy wideouts downfield against a secondary that's been middle of the pack. Devon Achane and Raheem Mostert should be able to put up some big rushing numbers too. The balance Miami could achieve is going to make things really difficult for a defense that'll likely be spending a lot of time on the field due to an inept offense.
The terrible New York offensive line is a big cause for the pathetic offensive display through the first four weeks. Daniel Jones is probably still sore from getting sacked eleven (11) times last Monday night.
New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (-1.5)
This game's going to objectively suck. Jameis Winston getting the nod over an injured Derek Carr would at least inject some chaotic moments, but we'll probably be subject to the dump off machine again. Going toe to toe with Mac Jones, fresh off of a recent benching. Hard to hype this up.
The Saints pass catchers may have some luck against a hampered Pats defense, that just lost Matthew Judon for the foreseeable future due to torn biceps. Whoever's under center for NOLA should have a decent bit of time to throw with some favorable matchups outside for Chris Olave and Michael Thomas.
If they can't drive though, like last week, it'll give New England's shotty offense enough chances to do what needs to be done to get the win. Need to keep an eye on the QB situation, but kind of leaning toward New Orleans regardless. Really tough one, take the under though.
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
One of the games we have circled every season, the trip out to Heinz Field. Or Acrisure...still not with that. Anticipating a pleasant trip for our Ravens.
There's been a bevy of big names returning to practice this week, such as Marlon Humphrey, potentially providing a big time talent boost. Given the long list of injuries Baltimore's dealing with, they'll happily take whoever they can get back ASAP.
If their healing offensive line can keep TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith off of Lamar, he should have no issue dicing up Pittsburgh. If Rashod Bateman and/or Odell Beckham Jr. rejoin the fold, it'll only add to his arsenal of weapons. Gus and whoever else is in the backfield will also have room to run against the bottom five rush D.
Will it be Kenny Pickett or Mister Biscuit at quarterback for the Steelers? Neither are particularly imposing, but at least one is fully healthy. Low expectations here for whichever we see. Najee Harris will get fourteen plodding carries and George Pickens may make a spectacular catch to bail out a bad throw, but a really uninspired bunch here for Matt Canada.
If the Ravens jump out to an early lead, it's hard to see Pittsburgh getting back into things. I don't think it's just the homer in me saying that Baltimore will take this by double digits.
Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at Los Angeles Rams
This Eagles team is a really uninspiring 4-0. Outside of how the defense played versus the Bucs, neither of their units have put together a complete game for the defending NFC Champs. The Rams aren't pushovers either.
Matthew Stafford's health is a big question mark. Sean McVay said he'll be full go, but at what capacity? He's been very good this season, which is a big reason LA is 2-2 right now. Cooper Kupp got in a limited practice, making him a true questionable. Pairing him with Puka Nacua would be a potent duo.
Kyren Williams is also expected to play, but also potentially at less then 100%. He's having a mild breakout, on the ground and in the receiving game, adding a nice dimension to this offense.
Jalen Hurts has been incredible for some stretches, but a liability with the ball in others. His opponents have made them pay for it too, with three of their four wins being by fourteen combined points. He can't be helping the Rams out with short fields.
Should be some good battles on the perimeter with AJ Brown and Devonta Smith. Los Angeles is only giving up 184 passing yards per game, despite no real marquee names in the secondary, so this'll be a real heavyweight battle. Maybe Dallas Goedert will get scripted some into the game?
This would be easier if Stafford was fully healthy, but I think I'm leaning toward a Rams cover and Eagles win. Should be a close, interesting game.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals
One of the more interesting battles we're going to see in week five is going down in Glendale, Arizona. Two teams off to very different starts than expected, with the Cardinals vastly overachieving compared to the floundering Bengals.
Which Joe Burrow's going the show up in the desert, Swaggy Shiest or the gimpy 2023 version? Given how bad he's been looking, I'd bet money on the latter, which really spices up this game. The former #1 pick has done more to hurt his team then help this season, despite going above and beyond to push through a calf injury. Fantastically frustrating saga down in Cincy.
Ja'Marr Chase is growing frustrated, but at least should have some good matchups on the outside to exploit. Tee Higgins will be far less than 100% if he does play, so keep an eye on that. Tyler Boyd becomes a viable starter in Higgins' absence, particularly because Burrow can't throw the ball right now. Checkdown monster.
Those upstart Cards though! Josh Dobbs has been efficient and opportunistic with the ball, James Conner's been as steady as they come and the defense has gelled to play well under Jonathan Gannon. Credit to their rookie head coach, who was ridiculed as an odd ball across all of the social medias for some of his motivational tactics. Whatever he's been doing has been working so far, I bet he can't wait to get some actual talent on a roster.
On paper, this screams Bengals. But we don't play the games on paper! It's going to be ugly, but somebody probably has to win. At a minimum, give me the Cardinals covering +3.5.
New York Jets at Denver Broncos (-1.5)
The Wilson Bowl. Payton-Hackett. Two total wins. Plenty of fun storylines you can pull from this showdown of...AFC teams.
Zach Wilson, coming off a banner day against a tough Chiefs defense, is drawing a Broncos D that's allowing the third most passing yards in the league. All the pieces are in place for an encore, but I've seen this man play enough to know it's far from a guarantee. Pulling for him though, for fantasy purposes as well as shutting Rodney Harrison the fuck up.
Allen Lazard finally showed up as a threat last week too, helping things open up for Garrett Wilson out as the game progressed. Both should have windows, especially if Hackett can scheme them away from Surtain II. Breece Hall is allegedly off of his pitch count too, so expect a busy day from him, and a warmer spot on the bench for Dalvin Cook.
Russell Wilson, on the other hand, has really come back to form after a dismal 2022. It's not his fault Denver's been as bad as they have been. The Jets defense has been up and down, but I think that has to do with attitude more than regression. They've gotten up for the big games and hit their opponents in the mouth, i.e. Buffalo and Kansas City. The way Sean Payton was talking shit about their offensive coordinator this offseason, they're going to be ready for this one.
Jerry Jeudy and Cortland Sutton are going to have hush games as the Jets' secondary puts the clamps on. They were modest against a far inferior group of Bears' corners last week, drawing some Twitter chirping by Jeudy toward some former Broncos. Sauce Gardner's going to lockdown half the field, allowing a team effort to secure the middle and opposite sides.
Zach Wilson could go out there and turn the ball over four times and completely poo poo this play, but it feels like maybe he's starting to figure out how some things work within this offense? Let me get the Jets in a close one.
Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Love this game for some reason. Minnesota has a terrible defense that Patrick Mahomes should be able to pop against. They also have a pretty loaded offense that's equipped to hang in some higher scoring games. Can Kirk hang in the four PM block?
As good as Mahomes is though, he has made some mistakes throughout this season. Four interceptions is very unlike him, possibly indicative of a deficiency at wideout? Kadarius Toney as a WR1 is a pretty tenuous spot to find yourself... Travis Kelce seems to be fully healthy now and Isiah Pacheco's been running the ball hard, so there's some good complimentary pieces. Some receiver just needs to step up as a consistent prescence.
Justin Jefferson's been damn near unstoppable, leaving KC's defenders with their hands full here. On the occasions they can cover him up, Jordan Addison and KJ Osborn are solid targets, as is tight end TJ Hockenson. Even Alexander Mattison has run the ball well of late. No reason Minnesota can't keep pace.
The Vikings are really, really tempting home dogs here. Kansas City will always have the Mahomes X factor, but they haven't looked that great through the first four weeks, outside of their destruction of the Bears. Let's go Minnesota to cover at least, Kirk could definitely choke it away late-- A la Chargers game.
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5)
Sunday night banger. Micah Parsons has no injury designation, which is huge for a Cowboys' defense that'll need all hands on deck.
Brock Purdy's playing MVP caliber football right now, as is running back Christian McCaffery. Give either a window and they have, and will, make you pay for it all year long. Dallas must be disciplined. Deebo Samuel will probably be a little hobbled, but the Niners will be okay as long as Brandon Aiyuk's out there. The fourth year player has shined this year with Purdy under center.
Dak is the big question mark here. The Cowboys will go as far as he can take them. He should be able to find CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup and Brandin Cooks out wide with some regularity if he doesn't let a loaded pass rush rattle him. The betting man in me thinks that #4's getting rattled though. Brutal assignment for Tony Pollard too, won't help things for Dallas.
Should be a fun one in Santa Clara, one I'm not sure I see the Niners dropping. Their defense is the kind that gives Prescott a lot of trouble, and we'll see it again Sunday night.
Green Bay Packers at Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) (Monday 10/9)
Davante Adams revenge game? I guess that's one way the media may try to spin this as a fun game. Both of these teams seem to be stuck in mediocrity at the moment, with their poor quarterback play being a catalyst for it.
Jordan Love's sort of shined for a few brief moments through the first four weeks, but overall has been pretty drab. The Raiders D shouldn't put up a ton of resistance, so potential for this to be a spot he can perform in and build confidence from. Aaron Jones playing will help, as AJ Dillon hasn't been cutting it. All the main pass catchers are cleared to play too, so no excuses for Love.
Jimmy Garoppolo was cleared from concussion protocol this week, so he'll be good to go for Las Vegas. Curious how long of a leash he'll have before the fan base is clamoring for Aiden O'Connell again. Expect a heavy dose of Josh Jacobs, as well as the aforementioned Adams, against his former team.
Probably won't watch much of this one, don't think I'll be missing out either. But I think Green Bay gets it done, Josh McDaniels will find some way to get outcoached by Matt LaFleur.
Records on the season:
31-33 ATS
43-21 SU
31-33 O/U
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, just my opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
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