Man, weddings are tough at this age. Had to dig deep to motivate myself to get through this blog, but I can’t leave the people hanging! Maybe the chronic hangover will help prep my brain to make the right picks this week, we’ll find out in a few hours here!
Til then, here’s our takes on week 8:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (-9.5) (Thursday 10/26)
Pivotal Thursday night matchup here between the Buccaneers and Bills, one that'll undoubtedly shape the rest of their seasons. The Bills have been atrocious over the last three weeks, going 1-2 while barely escaping with the one win they did manage over the lowly Giants. Huge check yourself moment for a team that has Super Bowl aspirations.
Will Josh Allen be able to sustain drives? The man's always a big play waiting to happen, but hasn't been able to matriculate the ball down the field with much consistency lately, much to the detriment of Buffalo. The Bucs have had some trouble in the secondary, so it's a matchup he could potentially exploit, but how confident are we in this offense right now? They've been bad.
James Cook probably won't have much running room against a top ten run D, not that he'd been efficient rushing anyway. Dawson Knox is going to miss this game on a short week too, opening up some targets for rookie Dalton Kincaid. But, like usual, expect Stefon Diggs or bust more often than not.
The Baker Mayfield "comeback" was a fun story early in the season, but it seems like that ships' sailed some. Dude can manage a game well enough, but he doesn't really elevate a team. The Bills have some key defensive injuries that he could be able to take advantage of, but I'm not super confident in his ability too. Chris Godwin will be suiting up at least, giving him his second stud wideout.
Don't think I'm anti-Rachaad White, but the kid's just not that good. Fortunately, neither is Buffalo's rush defense, so he could have one of his nicer performances, as long as the game remains close. With Tre White out for the year, expect Godwin and Mike Evans to have some favorable matchups.
Incredibly difficult to put much stock into either of these teams with how clunky they've looked lately, but I don't see the Bills falling in Orchard Park. I'll take Tampa to cover though, in what should be an ugly Thursday night affair.
Starts: Dalton Kincaid, Stefon Diggs, Mike Evans
Sits: James Cook
Sleepers: Baker Mayfield, Rachaad White
Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
Interesting NFC showdown that could potentially have wildcard implications down the line. LA's traveling to Jerry World to face a Cowboys' team that hasn't lost at home in their last ten tries.
Dak Prescott's been pretty underwhelming overall, only further cementing my opinion in him being a decent quarterback at best. The Rams corners have been overachieving too, which, combined with Aaron Donald creating pressure up the middle, could lead to some mistakes for #4. Getting Tony Pollard going early would go a long way in making Dak's workload more manageable.
On the flip side, Matthew Stafford gets a tough draw versus the third ranked pass defense. Imagine if they had Trevon Diggs too. Stafford's put up some big numbers through his first six games, but also has made some pretty back breaking mistakes. He'll have to play nearly flawlessly with such an opportunistic group opposite of him.
Kyren Williams' injury doesn't help him with that. The second year running back had emerged as a key part of the offense before landing on the IR last week. Darrell Henderson and Royce Freeman just don't have that same pop, but will be tasked with absorbing a ton of volume to help control the clock. Low ceilings, but each back is at least capable of keeping an opponent honest.
Tough one to play here with the line, but give me Dallas and the under at least. Seems like they're on a slightly better trajectory than LA at this point in the season.
Starts: Tony Pollard
Sits: Matthew Stafford
Sleepers: Jake Ferguson, Darrell Henderson
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (PK)
Weird NFC North line here. I've seen enough of Jordan Love and the Packers over the last couple of games to have virtually no confidence in them. With how Minnesota's been playing on both sides of the ball over that same span, it's pretty surprising to not see them favored here.
The aforementioned Green Bay quarterback started 2023 with six touchdowns and no picks after seven quarters. They were up 24-12 in Atlanta, on their way to going 2-0 without Aaron Rodgers under center. Everything was going according to plan.
Then the Packers were outscored 13-0 in the final quarter, losing 25-24. Since then, Love's thrown just four touchdowns compared to seven interceptions, completely stifling any chance the team's had to be competitive. They've gone 1-3 over that stretch, averaging just 17 PPG. It's been very bad, and is actively getting worse.
Minnesota on the other hand, has gone 2-0 since losing Justin Jefferson, with huge contributions from Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson in his absence. The defense is turning it around and Kirk's played mostly clean, helping this team to resemble their division winning version from last season.
I do not see how the Vikings drop this game, Lambeau or not. The Packers are a complete mess right now, with minimal relief in sight, while Minnesota is quietly sneaking back into the wildcard picture. I think I like the under here too.
Starts: Jordan Addison, Romeo Doubs
Sits: Jordan Love, Aaron Jones
Sleepers: Brandon Powell
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans
Will Levis szn is upon us y'all. The second rounder was prepped as the QB1 during the bye week due to starter Ryan Tannehill dealing with an ankle injury, priming himself for his first career start. Malik Willis is expected to get a little bit of action, but it seems the Titans are committing to getting Levis majority of the looks.
With that being said, we have no idea what Tennessee's offense is about to look like with the second rounder under center. I'd imagine a lot of Derrick Henry and a pretty surly Deandre Hopkins, but that's just an assumption. A matchup versus a top four defense in Atlanta doesn't do him any favors either.
The Falcons picked up a huge win over their NFC South rival Tampa last week and need to follow up on that performance here to further establish their divisional lead. Desmond Ridder would benefit from getting rid of the ball quickly, as the Titans' boast a talented and aggressive pass rush. Bijan Robinson actually getting to play would be cool too, which is seemingly expected with his name being removed from the injury reports mid-week. Still scarred from last week though. I think Drake London will have a really big showing too, picking on a weak secondary all afternoon.
Atlanta should roll Tennessee. Their defense should be problematic for whoever the Titans trot out at quarterback and the offense should be able to do more then enough to build and sustain a lead, especially if they're gifted with a short field or two. Probably not a ton of scoring either, though the over/under at 35.5 is preposterously low.
Starts: Drake London
Sits: Deandre Hopkins
Sleepers: Scotty Miller
New Orleans Saints (-1.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Initially, I didn't really think too highly about this tilt, but I'm slowly warming up to the thought of this being a fun battle up in Indianapolis.
With Gardner Minshew under center, we can at least be assured of some chaotic moments. Facing a tough Saints defense, expect a few turnovers from the QB. Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss should continue to split duties and churn out some yardage on the ground for the Colts. Also thinking Josh Downs is once again the favorite target while Michael Pittman Jr. sees a lot of Marshon Lattimore. The rookie from UNC has been awesome through his first seven games.
If somehow we could get Jameis Winston opposite of Minshew, the potential for spectacular mistakes would be exorbitant. Instead, we get Plain Jane, Vanilla Derek Carr: substantially improving the Saints' chances of winning, but in pretty dull fashion. He should have some success finding his talented receivers against an iffy Indy secondary that'll likely be without starter Juju Brents.
And when in doubt, look for plenty of dump offs to Alvin Kamara. The man has been a PPR machine since returning from suspension, a trend that should absolutely continue Sunday.
Two teams on two game losing streaks, kind of a make or break week. My initial pick was the Saints and the under, but I think I've completely flip flopped. Gimme the home dogs and the over in a wonky one.
Starts: Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Josh Downs
Sits: Michael Pittman Jr.
Sleepers: Taysom Hill
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-9.5)
What do ya say Mac Jones, wanna shock the world again? The Pats are traveling to South Beach for their second showdown against the Dolphins, after falling 24-17 in their week two affair.
The Fins are banged up on both sides of the ball, which may make for a slightly more stressful afternoon against Bill Belichick's squad. Jones played his best game in a long time last Sunday and will be hoping to carry that momentum over to this week. While I don't think he'll shine quite so bright, I also don't think he'll completely shit the bed.
Rhamondre Stevenson and Zeke keeping the defense honest would go a long way with that, in the run and/or screen game. Miami's corners are pretty weak, so if they need to send reinforcements against the rush, it could create some nice one on ones outside for Kendrick Bourne and Demario Douglas.
Tyreek Hill's health was a question mark all week, but he appears to be ready to roll. Huge boost for this offense, to state the obvious, especially with Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert less than 100% too. They shouldn't struggle against New England's iffy secondary, but if Tua's dealing with pressure in the pocket, it could be tougher sledding. Miami's offensive line posted their worst performance of the year last week, dooming them against a relentless Philly front seven.
Luckily for the Dolphins, the Patriots are far from the Eagles. And Matthew Judon's not available, so one less pass rusher to deal with. Love the over in this game and think it'll be close, until Miami pulls away late, covering in the process.
Starts: Tyreek Hill, Kendrick Bourne
Sits:
Sleepers: Mac Jones, Demario Douglas, Hunter Henry
New York Jets (-2.5) at New York Giants
Tyrod Taylor back under center for the Giants, as the timeline for Daniel Jones' return continues to muddy. One of the tougher matchups of his career incoming against a ferocious Jets' defense that's getting their top two cornerbacks back. It's not going to be pretty.
One thing that does favor the G-Men is how bad the Jets have been against the run this season. Despite having a star like Quinnen Williams in the middle, they're still allowing over 135 rushing yards per game. That's the only way the Giants can keep this close, by riding Saquon Barkley early and often. But again, Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed are back, so Gang Green may feel comfortable packing the box and letting their star corners do their thing on the perimeter.
Zach Wilson hasn't been spectacular, but with all the talent on this roster, he's done more than enough to have the confidence of his teammates for the time being. If he can play cleanly, they should be able to move the ball with some relative ease. Breece Hall's going to have a huge day, fully emerging at the guy with news of Dalvin Cook's trade request. Garrett Wilson vs. Deontae Banks could provide some fun scraps too.
Another crazy low total here, currently sitting at 35.5. Feels like watching Iowa football more so than the NFL... The Jets should win though, with the under being very much in play. Could be like a 17-10 kind of game.
Starts: Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, Saquon Barkley
Sits: Any Giants' receiver, Dalvin Cook
Sleepers: Zach Wilson
Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
This matchup always takes me back to the David Garrard playoff win...fun times for Jacksonville. They're traveling back to Acrisure Stadium this week for a tussle with the surprising 4-2 Steelers.
Trevor Lawrence has been somewhat disappointing in what many expected to be a big season for him. A little conservative at times, a few too many turnovers, it just hasn't always passed the eye test. Pittsburgh's D won't be an easy task for him, especially if TJ Watt plays up to his potential.
The run game should be able to work for the Jags however, with the Steelers giving up over 140 a game on the ground. Expect a lot of Travis Etienne, likely continuing his touchdown streak.
Interesting test for Jacksonville's defense too. They've been excellent in the month of October and now get to face the budding duo of Kenny Pickett and George Pickens. Should be some fun moments. Najee Harris will average between 2-3 yards per carry, while Jaylen Warren flashes more explosive in half the touches. Probably a pretty typical day ahead for the Pittsburgh offense.
Hard game to choose here, would like Jacksonville much more if this was in Duval. I don't think they lose, but this will not be a blow out.
Starts: Travis Etienne
Sits: Najee Harris, Trevor Lawrence
Sleepers: Jamal Agnew
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at Washington Commanders
Philadelphia finally put together a complete performance against Miami, completely stifling their dynamic offense. They should have no problem doing that to Washington Sunday, especially if their defensive line can get after Sam Howell. The second year quarterback has taken a whopping 40 sacks through seven starts, undoubtedly affecting his performance.
AJ Brown's been unstoppable, which will definitely be continuing against a soft Commanders secondary. He torched Emmanuel Forbes for a 9/175/2 line a few weeks ago and should have minimal issue putting up similar numbers. D'Andre Swift should be productive too, especially if the Eagles get ahead early.
Philly also boasts the top run defense in the league, which should land Brian Robinson on your fantasy benches. That’ll make balancing the offense even more challenging for Howell, as the likes of Josh Sweat and Jalen Carter bear down on him. Really pessimistic forecast for the whole bunch.
Feels like two teams on completely different trajectories, with the Eagles vying for the top slot in the NFC, while the Commanders are considering firing Ron Rivera and trading away key pieces to load up for the future. Give me Philadelphia, running away with it.
Starts: AJ Brown, D'Andre Swift, Philadelphia defense
Sits: Logan Thomas, Sam Howell
Sleepers: Kenneth Gainwell
Houston Texans (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers
A battle between the top two picks from this most recent draft going down in Carolina. Not expecting a fun game though.
Bryce Young’s looked better in recent weeks, particularly when targeting Adam Thielen, but his first win has eluded him thus far. The duo should be potent once again, with few other quality targets to consider. Throw in the fact that Miles Sanders has been terribly inefficient, just not an exciting offense.
Houston, on the other hand, have really witnessed their rookie QB blossom early on, elevating the motley crew of Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz. This Panthers’ defense isn’t slouchy, but I trust Stroud to move through his progressions and get the ball where it needs to go. Maybe Dameon Pierce will decide to show up too. He’s been the worst running back in the league through the first third of the season, dulling what had been quite a hype train.
Tough call in this one. Doesn’t seem like Carolina’s pathetic enough of a roster to go winless, and this contest being at home doesn’t hurt. I like the Texans to pull away late though, securing a nice win to keep pace in the AFC.
Starts: Dameon Pierce, Adam Thielen
Sits: Miles Sanders
Sleepers: Bryce Young
Cleveland Browns at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
In the same vein of ugly games, this is going to be a tough one in the Pacific Northwest. Geno Smith struggles against good defenses, DK’s less than 100%, the offensive line has had some struggles in pass protection— many reasons to get behind Cleveland.
PJ Walker’s due to come back to Earth a little though. Seattle’s corners should be able to force a few errant throws from the former XFL quarterback. Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt will split backfield duties, likely with a little bit of success.
The under should be good to go here, and I actually like Cleveland to cover on the strength of their defense. Seahawks pick up the home win though
Starts: Kareem Hunt
Sits: Geno Smith
Sleepers: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) at Denver Broncos
No need to deep dive into this one. Patrick Mahomes literally doesn’t lose to the Broncos. Pencil KC in for another win here.
The only thing worth keeping an eye on is the weather in Denver. There could be a wintery storm roll through, which could impact both team’s passing games. Javonte Williams has been running angry and could be in line for a heavy workload if the weather’s crappy.
But again, don’t overthink this. Chiefs win, cash the under
Starts: Javonte Williams, Isiah Pacheco
Sits: Any wide receiver
Sleepers: Jaleel McLaughlin, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Should be fun for Baltimore to see Hollywood Brown again, particularly as a member of such an overmatched opponent. While I don’t expect any bad blood between him and the Ravens, best believe Marlon Humphrey would take pride shutting down their former WR1.
He should have no issue with that with how Josh Dobbs has been playing of late. The man was serviceable earlier in the season, but quickly fell off once James Conner went down with an injury. Really tough day ahead for him against an elite defensive unit.
The Ravens’ offense really started to click last week. They should be able to run and pass the ball with minimal resistance against an inferior Arizona defense that’s going to be logging a ton of snaps. Expecting a monster day from Lamar and his receivers. A little unsure on Mark Andrews, as the Cardinals actually do defend tight ends well. But for fantasy purposes, you probably don’t have a better option on your bench.
Ravens, Ravens, Ravens. And the over
Starts: Zay Flowers, Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards
Sits: Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs
Sleepers: Odell Beckham Jr
Cincinnati Bengals at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
As a Ravens fan, I hate this game. As bad as Burrow’s looked for majority of the year, this just feels like a classic breakout spot for him. Fresh off a bye, San Fran is kind of floundering. Boy do I hope I’m wrong.
Their secondary has been an issue, which directly plays into the Bengals’ offensive strengths. Ja’Marr Chase could go nuts if his QB is on and upright. Kind of like Tyler Boyd over Tee Higgins in this matchup too, just a gut feeling.
The Niners getting Brock Purdy back definitely helps their chances. I’m sure Sam Darnold would’ve been semi-capable of managing this Kyle Shanahan offense, but you want your top guys out there for the big ones. Curious if Christian McCaffery will be able to notch a score in his 17th straight game...just an unreal streak for the guy.
Officially selecting the Bengals to pick up a huge road victory. They should be able to do what they do best on offense, while the defense does enough to fluster Purdy and the 49ers. Thinking over too
Starts: Ja'Marr Chase
Sits: Brock Purdy, Joe Mixon
Sleepers: Tyler Boyd, Jajuan Jennings
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Chargers (-8.5)
I'm not sure why this was ever put into prime time. Maybe the Khalil Mack reunion, but that's about the only storyline of note here.
Tyson Bagent played admirably in his first start, beating a hapless, spineless Brian Hoyer. While the Chargers are wholly disappointing, personifying underachievement, they should absolutely demolish the rookie quarterback. Look for Justin Herbert to be sharp after getting completely son'd by the Chiefs a week ago. Keenan Allen should top the century mark, with contributions from Gerald Everett as well. The Bears don't guard the tight end all that well, giving up over 52 YPG to the position.
Chargers must win and they must cover. If they lose, I do not see how Brandon Staley has a job Monday.
Starts: Keenan Allen, Gerald Everett
Sits: DJ Moore
Sleepers: Josh Palmer, Joshua Kelley
Las Vegas Raiders at Detroit Lions (-8.5) (MNF)
One more odd prime time game to wrap up the week eight slate, with the sad Raiders going up to the Motor City to face a recently humbled Lions team.
After the shellacking Baltimore put on Detroit, they've got to be angry and motivated to wipe the floor with Josh McDaniels' bunch. If Jimmy Garoppolo starts, it could be semi-competitive for a little bit. If it's Aidan O'Connell, or God forbid Brian Hoyer again, anticipate the Lions to slaughter them.
Jared Goff should be able to be efficient in the pass game, but kind of tempering expectations for him Monday night. Vegas' secondary's been slightly better than expected, plus Jahmyr Gibbs is primed for a monster evening on the ground. I just don't think Ben Johnson's going to ask or need much from his QB.
Lions by a whole lot, hit the over too if Jimmy G plays
Starts: Jahmyr Gibbs, Jakobi Meyers
Sits: Josh Jacobs
Sleepers: Craig Reynolds
Records on the season:
45-59 ATS
62-42 SU
54-50 O/U
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, just my opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
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