My worst gambling week historically, week two. Trying to overcome that bad juju this Sunday! A lot of weird matchups to go through, let us help give you a nudge some direction or another, starting with a game that already happened…
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) (Thursday 9/14)
In case you don't remember, this was a Monday night game last year during week two. Kirk Cousins threw three interceptions while Jalen Hurts had just five incompletions, en route to a 24-7 massacre at the Linc.
Fast forward 360 days and we're back, except the Vikings look even worse this time. Cousins was sloppy with the ball, producing three turnovers last week, they couldn't run the ball and the defense couldn't make crucial stops. And that was at 1 PM against a Tampa Bay team that's a quarter of the roster that this Philly team's got. Kirk's primed for an equally poor performance here.
The Eagles came out hot Sunday before fading late against the Patriots, just barely holding on for a win. This horrible Vikings defense should put up much less resistance for Hurts and Company to overcome Thursday night, particularly in the passing game. AJ Brown and Devonta Smith will eat again, and just maybe Dallas Goedert will decide to show up.
If Philadelphia is as good as many believe they are, this game shouldn't be close. Give me the Eagles covering and the under, as I don't see Minnesota having a good day on offense at all.
*The section above was typed Thursday morning, score prediction posted to Instagram
Green Bay Packers (-1.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Legitimately curious how much longer Arthur Smith would be willing to watch Desmond Ridder play like that. It was acceptable last week against the toothless Panthers, but this team isn't equipped for any type of shootout or come from behind situation.
That may not be a problem if Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier continue to pound the rock they way they did week one, but at some point they're going to be staring down nine man boxes. Especially against teams with a Jaire Alexander- caliber cornerback to shut down Drake London. He was all but invisible against Jaycee Horn.
Jordan Love will face a stiffer challenge in the Atlanta secondary then the Bears gave him in this one. However, if Christian Watson suits able to draw AJ Terrell's attention, there'll be some exploitable matchups for him in the pass game. Aaron Jones' availability is a question mark too, leaving a potentially huge opportunity for AJ Dillon ahead. He was very inefficient against Chicago, but will have much more room to work with in Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
This should be a scrappy game I believe, with ball control being at a premium. Give me the Packers though, covering in a competitive battle, plus the under. Just feels like an under.
Las Vegas Raiders at Buffalo Bills (-9.5)
Buffalo looked really bad against the Jets on Monday night. Excuse me, against Zach Wilson* and the New York Jets. On paper, this game has the make up of a big time get right spot. I don't think the reality's that cut and dry.
Josh Allen's just not good against Robert Saleh's D, so we can assume he won't be a complete turnover machine against the Raiders Sunday, but he is generally good for a mistake or two. Ball protection will be essential if they're planning to cover.
James Cook looked pretty solid in his debut as the Bills' clear cut RB1, and should have some easier sledding against a softer Vegas front seven. Stefon Diggs shut my mouth too against Sauce Gardner and Co., no reason he can't similarly torch Nate Hobbs. Everyone else on this offense is a dart throw for production/fantasy purposes.
Win, win, win: that's what Jimmy G does. In a brutal opening matchup vs. Denver, he didn't force feed Davante Adams, instead showing a willingness to spread the ball to his other options. Tre'Davious White is good, but he's no Patrick Surtain II, so expect Adams to have a little more perimeter play this week. Jakobi Meyers is a viable commodity too.
Feels like a big game ahead for Josh Jacobs. The less Josh Allen has the ball, the better opportunity Las Vegas will have for the upset, so expect a run heavy approach against a defense that got lit up by Breece Hall. Triple digit rushing yards in his future.
If Buffalo loses this game, it could be a real sound the alarms situation up in Orchard Park. They cannot overlook this Raiders team. I think they'll win, but I like Vegas to cover. Hit the over too while we're on it, both teams have some potency on offense.
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)
Such a hard game to get a read on... On paper, this Cincinnati offense should be able to put up like 600 passing yards against the Ravens' sad excuse of a secondary. But Joey B looked horrendous against the Browns, perhaps indicating that he's quite a way from 100%.
Lamar Jackson's 10-1 against the spread, which is of some appeal here with the line at 3.5. As little confidence as I have in Baltimore's corners, the Bengals don't have a crazy strong defensive front to take advantage of the numerous injuries along offensive line. Lamar should have time in the pocket to pick on some weak CBs of his own. Mark Andrews' return would be a big boost, but as we saw versus Houston, they're in good hands with Zay Flowers.
It should be a lot of Gus Edwards in the ground game for the Ravens, although they surprisingly had Justice Hill step into a main role after JK Dobbins went down week one. Probably will be some semblance of a committee against a defense that just got run all over by Nick Chubb. It'd be huge if Gus and Justice could establish such a rhythm.
As mentioned at the beginning though, if Burrow plays well, he's going to have some of the easiest matchups outside that he'll ever have as a professional. Joe Mixon won't have much room to rumble, so that's going to be Cincy's path to victory.
Really difficult call here, probably won't actually bet it, but give me the Ravens covering and the over. Not confident in either, a lot of question marks on both sides of this divisional scrap.
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-5.5)
These two teams squared off last year in an absolute barn burner of a game that Seattle took home 48-45. Will we be seeing much of the same this weekend?
The Seahawks, particularly Geno Smith, were objectively horrendous in the season opener, getting mollywhopped at home by a Rams team many felt they were superior to. Now they're drawing a motivated Lions team with a revamped defense and a ton of momentum after toppling Kansas City to kick off the season.
DK Metcalf was the clear alpha at wideout against LA, but didn't really put up big numbers in the sputtering pass game. It wouldn't be surprising to see JSN or Lockett more involved, assuming Smith has time to throw them the ball. Detroit's pass rush looked deadly versus the reigning champions and could really cause some fits. As long as the game remains close, Kenneth Walker should tally at least fifteen carries. Maybe Zach Charbonnet will decide to post some numbers too?
Jared Goff wasn't great against KC, but he did just enough to help squeak out a dub. Matthew Stafford revealed some holes in Seattle's defense that Goff and OC Ben Johnson surely have been crunching during film. Amon Ra St. Brown doing battle with Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon will be fun to watch.
David Montgomery surprisingly nailed down the lead dog role for Detroit's running backs out the jump, with Gibbs playing more of the complementary role. This Seahawks D did a good job stifling Cam Akers and Kyren Williams, an admittedly low bar, and will be hoping to do the same up in Motor City.
The Rams really did a number against both Seattle units last week, and I'm convinced the Lions are better on both sides of the ball. At home, riding high off a week one upset, I'll take them to win and cover! Is it time to sound the alarms in the Puget Sound?
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans
If the Chargers don't win this game, Brandon Staley needs to be fired, no two ways about it.
Ryan Tannehill is cooked, Deandre Hopkins is questionable and Tennessee's secondary is trash. If they want to compete in their home opener, it's going to be on the shoulders of Derrick Henry, with a lot of help from the pass rush. LA's really struggled against the run in recent years, which does provide a very clear road map for a Titans victory.
As much as I want to stone-cold guarantee this prediction, history has shown us time and time again that you can never be fully certain with the Chargers. But Austin Ekeler looked incredible on the ground, they'll have all of their pass catchers at their disposal, plus Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack have some makeup work to do after a quiet week one.
Give me LA going away, possibly by double digits.
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)
Two teams trending very different directions after week one. Tampa Bay stifled a tough Minnesota team on the road, while Chicago got steamrolled at home by their owners, the Green Bay Packers. On paper, the Bears will have their hands full again with the stable of weapons at Baker Mayfield's disposal. Don't be surprised if he looks sharp again. Don't expect much from Rachaad White, at least on the ground.
On the flip side, the Bucs defense suddenly looks stiff, if only for a week. Justin Fields wasn't good against the Packers, but I guess no Bears QB ever is. He should play a little better, but if Devin White spies him, it'll really limit his rushing ceiling. Khalil Herbert and D'Onta Foreman will run into Vita Vea a good bit, not a particularly fun assignment.
DJ Moore will be happy not to have Jaire Alexander opposite of him. Expect a modest bounce back, at least sixty yards, maybe more if he breaks one. Darnell Mooney, fresh off a 4/53/1 line, looks poised for more work as Chase Claypool's lack of effort has lead him to be a candidate for a healthy scratch Sunday. Still so stupid that they gave up a second round pick for him...
I want to believe in Chicago, but the Bucs' team make up is perfect to neutralize them. On the road, in the heat, some dynamic players. Points, over. And the Bucs, money line at least.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Good news Chiefs fans, Travis Kelce is set to play Sunday. And Chris Jones too! It's going to look like a completely different team out there.
Patrick Mahomes will surely welcome his top target's return after the drop fest last Thursday night against Detroit. One would like to think Kadarius Toney can't play worse, plus the Jaguars corners just aren't very good. Calling it now, Andy Reid dials up a little bubble screen to Toney on the first play of the game to try and get the ball in his hands and boost the confidence.
Isiah Pacheco also underwhelmed a bit versus the Lions but should have some room to rumble against this defensive front. With two potent offenses, being able to pound the rock some will end up proving huge for clock control.
Trevor Lawrence took a minute to get the Jags where they needed to be last Sunday, but he ultimately got it done late. Kansas City's defense isn't supreme, but it's likely better than they faced up in Indy, so he'll have to come out sharp early. Christian Kirk has to put up more than one catch for nine yards...but his ceiling's really been limited by Calvin Ridley's arrival. What a steal for GM Trent Baalke, trading for the wideout for cheap while suspended-- dude's a prime fit for this offense.
After watching David Montgomery salt things away against the Chiefs week one, Travis Etienne has to think he can offer much of the same if Jacksonville finds themselves up late. He pushed back on some notions that he couldn't be a true RB1 after efficiently handling 18 carries for 77 yards, an effort he should be able to match or surpass here.
Now that Kelce's back, the over's appealing in my eyes, especially because it did not hit in their playoff matchup. Feels like it's due. I'll take the Jaguars to cover at home too, but not sure I'm ready to have them digging the Chiefs into an 0-2 hole just yet.
Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) at Houston Texans
Wrapping up our one o'clockers with a showdown between the #2 and #4 picks in this most recent draft. Interesting opportunities for each.
CJ Stroud looked pretty decent against a bad Baltimore secondary in his debut, and shouldn't face a ton more resistance through the air in his inaugural home game. If he can grow upon that performance, it'd be incredibly encouraging. He'll be seeing DeForest Buckner regularly though behind a patchwork offensive line.
Dameon Pierce had a much tougher go against those Ravens, partially due to a negative game script. Against a weaker front seven, in what should be a closer game, I'm expecting a pretty busy day for the second year running back. Chalk him up for twenty or more carries and yardage in the triple digits. Nico Collins and Robert Woods seem to be viable fantasy players too, especially in PPR leagues.
On the flip side, Anthony Richardson is going from a cake walk defense to a talented, youthful group led by first year Head Coach Demeco Ryans. Michael Pittman Jr. should be much more challenging to locate with Derek Stingley Jr. across from him all day, but expect their top wideout to notch some modest numbers. Josh Downs could have another target-filled day underneath too!
Zack Moss is back from a broken arm to add a little pop to this Colts backfield that really didn't have any behind Deon Jackson. Temper expectations there, as Moss isn't exactly known for his explosiveness, but the volume will be there.
This is a sneaky fun matchup I believe, the first chapter of an AFC South quarterback saga between Stroud and Richardson. For this one here though, the Texans are going to get it done in Houston. Thinking about the over too, as of typing this anyway.
San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) at Los Angeles Rams
Brock Purdy is different. Torn UCL in late January, back from surgery before training camp, ballin' out week one in Pittsburgh. What a story for Mr. Irrelevant, and we're just on chapter two.
On paper, this is an easier matchup for him. Outside of Aaron Donald, this Rams defense isn't very experienced. They shut Seahawks' offense down like nobody's business, but this ain't Geno Smith and company. Christian McCaffery looks reborn, Deebo's still Deebo and Brandon Aiyuk looks like a legitimate #1 wideout. And I didn't even mention George Kittle yet. They're going to be a lot for Sean McVay's young group.
Matthew Stafford's been around the block though, particularly with rosters lacking blue chip talent. Thanks Matt Millen. He looked very motivated against the Hawks, much more than I anticipated, and should be able to find some holes against San Francisco's secondary. To what extent will depend on how his offensive line holds up. They're going to have their hands full versus a ferocious front seven.
Cam Akers is going to have a terrible game, assuming he even starts with how Kyren Williams looked spelling him in Seattle. Neither are playable in fantasy with this matchup. Hoping Puka Nacua season continues too, exciting start to the rookie's career.
McVay's coaching was a big reason for the Rams upset a week ago, but he's 4-9 against Kyle Shanahan in his career and is coming in with the evidently inferior team. Niners win with minimal issue and the over feels good. But something in my stomach tells me LA pulls out a back door cover...that 7.5 is just staring at me.
New York Giants (-5.5) at Arizona Cardinals
I think we saw the worst possible Giants last week, and quite possibly the best the Cardinals have to offer in their showdown against Washington. Absolutely feels like a get right game for the G-Men.
Saquon Barkley's going to be the hammer all afternoon, likely toting the rock 20-25 times for some strong numbers. Daniel Jones will put up some modest passing numbers while adding some on the ground of his own. Darren Waller's the only pass catcher likely to get any volume, though there's potential for a splash play for someone like Darius Slayton or Jaylin Hyatt.
James Conner's going to hate running the ball with Dexter Lawrence opposite of him, lanes are going to be few and far between. Josh Dobbs will be safe but unproductive in the passing game, finding Hollywood Brown, Rondale Moore and Zach Ertz on few occasions. I don't think a shutout's out of the question.
Giants win easily, plus the under.
New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)
This game looked so, so good this time a week ago...but here we are. Glad to hear Aaron Rodgers' surgery went smoothly. Zach Wilson steps in now to command a dangerous fleet that'll likely be stuck in neutral. Breece Hall's incredible and will help take some pressure off the quarterback, but they're going to need some plays in the passing game to win this one. Is the BYU product the man to make them?
I doubt it, not against this stingy Cowboys secondary. Yards are going to be on a premium for this Jets offense. Which is likely the situation on the opposite sideline too, with Dak having to go up against arguably the top defense in the league. Tony Pollard's going to have little room to run, Brandin Cooks seems unlikely to play and Prescott generally just doesn't play against elite units. Not a bright forecast in my opinion, outside of maybe inheriting a few short fields.
The under of 38.5 is sooo low for this game, but absolutely appropriate. And we're going to take it! Plus a Dallas win, but the Jets will cover. They're too talented a team to lose by double digits to Dak Prescott, Wilson under center or not.
Washington Commanders at Denver Broncos (-3.5)
Tons of defense ahead in this Mile High affair. Low expectations for both quarterbacks, running room on the ground should be hard to come by— just a gross game, for viewing and fantasy purposes.
Under, under, under. And I’ll take the Commanders too in the mild upset, just feels like a game Russell Wilson can’t win.
Miami Dolphins (-2.5) at New England Patriots
Fun Sunday night showdown up in Foxborough, with two of the top passing performers from week one. New England’s cornerbacks aren’t very good, poising Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle for some big yardage. Don’t be surprised if they combine for over 300 receiving yards.
Raheem Mostert should be the workhorse in the run game, but won’t be much more than a change of pace between huge pass plays. Durham Smythe is a considerable sleeper at tight end.
Mac Jones was dealing against Philadelphia, which should be sustainable against a Dolphins secondary that misses Jalen Ramsey. With how Jones distributes the rock, it’s hard to get a feel for the most active target, but Kendrick Bourne seems like your best bet.
Rhamondre Stevenson should roll against a front seven that’s coming off a gashing courtesy of Austin Ekeler. Ezekiel Elliott may even have some opportunities to rumble off a few decent carries!
Hammer the over here, there should be yards and points galore. I’ll take the Dolphins to ultimately pull away, covering in the process.
New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers
If you thought Bryce Young struggled against Atlanta, just wait til you see what Dennis Allen has in store for him. Marshon Lattimore’s going to shut down half the field while the pocket collapses around the rookie QB. Carolina’s offense is really uninspiring at the moment.
New Orleans has a little more pop at least, mainly in the form of Chris Olave. The second year wideout showed really good chemistry with Derek Carr in their first venture as teammates, but Jaycee Horn’s not an easy assignment. Michael Thomas should see a few more targets as a result.
Carolina does have some talent on defense, but they let Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson run all over them week one. Not the biggest fan of Jamaal Williams, but he should be a little more productive than he was against Tennessee.
Pretty confident New Orleans takes this one with no problem, possibly holding the Panthers in single digit points. Therefore, hit the under too.
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Monday night wraps up with an AFC North tussle between the Browns and Steelers. Pittsburgh’s dangerous here after getting embarrassed by San Francisco; no way that happens again right?
Kenny Pickett will be a big part of whatever the result is. This is a lighter matchup than the Niners, but not significantly. Najee Harris likely won’t help the offense attain any balance, allowed Myles Garrett to pin his ears back in pursuit of the quarterback. Denzel Ward will take away George Pickens or Diontae Johnson on most plays. Low expectations for this Steelers offense.
Deshaun Watson will likely struggle as well, especially with Jack Conklin’s season ending injury. Losing your right tackle before going up against TJ Watt isn’t an ideal proposition.
Fortunately for Cleveland, the Steelers got destroyed by CMC on the ground. Nick Chubb should be able to pace them all evening.
Bet on the Browns to win and the under in the second of two unexciting Monday night games.
Records on the season:
11-5 ATS
11-5 SU
8-8 O/U
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, just our opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
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