Week two is behind us, my gambling bugaboo is in the past! Onto a big week three ahead, already off to a good start thanks to the 49ers and Christian McCaffery. The Giants are playing terrible football right now, after paying all that money to Danny Dimes. Unenviable spot to be in. We'll look back at our prediction on that game and the rest of the week three slate!
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5) (Thursday 9/21)
This is a hard one to get up for. Outside of one good half, the Giants have been outscored 60-0 while looking completely hapless. In a moment where they really need a good showing to build momentum, they get arguably the toughest draw the league has to offer.
Daniel Jones is going to be flushed from the pocket all evening, being forced to make plays with his legs or throw on the run. He's capable of this, but not a position you want your QB in that frequently. With Saquon Barkley likely out behind him too, achieving a balance to keep the defense honest could end up being challenging. Matt Breida doesn't quite pack the same skill set...
Darren Waller will be squaring off with Fred Warner majority of his routes, which should prove for some entertaining battles. The Niners have shown they can be hit up through the air some too, so this diverse receiving core could create some opportunities for themselves. Just a matter of their quarterback getting it to them.
Despite Dexter Lawrence in the middle of the D line, the Giants have been hurt in the run game, so expect yet another boom from Christian McCaffery. Dude's been on a different level through the first two weeks. As a result, Brock Purdy will likely be asked to facilitate more than orchestrate, while his running back goes crazy. Temper expectations for his receivers as a result, though all have respectable floors.
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| Photo: Godofredo A. Vasquez/ AP |
New York is a tricky team to get a read on right now, making it hard to confidently take them to lose by eleven or more. But without their RB1 in the wings, their offense is severely handicapped. I just don't believe they'll be able to keep up, so give me the Niners and a cover.
*The section above was typed Thursday morning, score prediction posted to Instagram
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
Life without Nick Chubb, something Cleveland fans haven't had to endure on a major scale since 2017. Jerome Ford didn't seem to skip a beat once he was plugged in last Monday, but to think he'll completely fill the shoes Chubb's leaving behind is a silly proposition.
Deshaun Watson seems to be a turnover bomb just waiting to go off at any given moment. Without his top back, balance on offense may be tricky to achieve, priming him with more opportunities to make mistakes. This Titans' secondary isn't the most imposing of a matchup, but their ferocious pass rush could be set to give him some trouble. After watching Watson literally fumble the game vs. Pittsburgh away, Harold Landry and company have to be getting amped up.
Amari Cooper's proven yet again to be a reliable receiver, in fantasy and real-life, after posting nice numbers on a night he wasn't even expected to play. Much easier sledding against these Tennessee corners, so expect another busy night for him. Elijah Moore will get some looks too.
Speaking of balance-- that's a cornerstone to the Titans' success on offense. They go as King Henry goes, and this Sunday he will not have much room to go. This Browns' defense is really good overall, particularly against the run through weeks one and two. If they can keep that type of play up, it'll severely stifle their opponents.
Ryan Tannehill challenging Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome II is exactly what Cleveland wants to have happen. Regardless of which receiver he's targeting, the below average quarterback is at a clear deficit in those matchups. Deandre Hopkins and Treylon Burks won't be having productive afternoons, spare a splash play.
Feels like I talked down the Titans for most of this section, but I think I'm actually going to take them to win outright. Their defensive line is going to cause fits for Watson, while their offense puts forth a deliberate effort to control the clock and put up just enough points. Probably giving the nod to the under too.
Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions (-3.5)
Going to give a quick pat on the back to myself for believing in this Falcons team during the preseason. The on-field product isn't always pretty, but 2-0 over two fellow NFC teams is huge. They'll get a chance for win #3 in Detroit, against a group reeling from a tough OT loss to Seattle.
As with any week, Bijan Robinson's production is going to correlate pretty directly with how successful Atlanta will be. He's been as advertised early in his rookie career and is in a prime spot for another explosion Sunday. It'd be surprising if he didn't eclipse the century mark, at least in total yards.
Desmond Ridder was much better against Green Bay then he was Carolina, which was a bit of a surprise. The Lions secondary is on the up and up, but they'll leave some windows for passes to Drake London. Feels like a breakout type game for Kyle Pitts too; this defense isn't great against tight ends.
Dan Campbell's team probably wins their home opener if Jared Goff played a little cleaner. The pick six and stalling drives dug a hole that ended up being just a little too deep to pull out of, although not for lack of effort. Hard to say how good Atlanta's pass D has been vs. Bryce Young and Jordan Love, but we'll have a much better idea after this one.
Will Jahmyr Gibbs finally announce his arrival with a big performance? It'd be fitting in a matchup featuring the only tailback taken before him. Personally, it still feels like David Montgomery's backfield to lose, but he's less then 100% right now. Could be an window for Gibbs to shine and increase his workload moving forward.
Both of these teams are scrappy, maybe even good. It'll be fun to see which of the two emerges from this battle victorious. While we're here, I'll take a Lions dub and a Falcons cover. Over feels plausible too.
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)
New Orleans is going to be marching their 2-0 record up to Lambeau for a week three NFC showdown. Nice to get that trip out of the way while it's still warm up there. Should be a pretty dull game though.
Derek Carr's going to be pressured a decent bit, likely resulting in a turnover or two. Not high expectations for the quarterback here. With Jamaal Williams banged up, I actually like Taysom Hill to get some burn in the run game. His aggressive running style should help buy Carr a little more time in the pocket.
Chris Olave and Mike Thomas each have nice floors receiving too, with the former having a higher ceiling. Jaire may be due for a bounce back though after letting Drake London beat them up a week ago, but the Saints wideouts should put up decent numbers.
Jordan Love was dialed in for three quarters against Atlanta but let the wheels fall off in the final fifteen. The Saints play a similar hard-nosed style of ball, which is going to force this game into a grind. Is the young QB up to the task?
Having Aaron Jones back wouldn't hurt, his forecast is looking optimistic for this weekend. AJ Dillon's been pretty underwhelming in his absence. Christian Watson's availability would be a welcome upgrade as well. Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed have fared pretty well in his absence, but of course you want your most talented players out there.
Not really having an easy time getting up for this one here. Tricky line too. The last two times I felt this way about a game like this, I took (and hit on) the underdogs, so give me the Saints straight up, in a snoozer.
Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins (-6.5)
It's going to be hot and muggy down in South Beach. The Broncos just got worked at home by the Washington Commanders offense, to the tune of 35 points. They still have Russell Wilson under center.
There's just a short list of the reasons why I don't trust Denver as far as Bradley Chubb's going to throw his former quarterback this Sunday. Miami's D isn't a juggernaut, but they won't need to be to keep their opponent at bay. Tua needs to play smart against Patrick Surtain II, but it seems like the rest of the defense is attackable. No reason Raheem Mostert doesn't continue his hot start either.
Something tells me this game's going to get ugly, like maybe Russ finding the bench in the fourth quarter bad. I've been wrong before, but it feels like a 35-10 kind of score upcoming here. With the Dolphins winning, of course.
Los Angeles Chargers at Minnesota Vikings (PK)
Win or go home! It sure feels that way for Brandon Staley at least...the embattled Chargers coach's reputation has been on the line after their 27 point playoff meltdown last January. All he's done since is go 0-2 in vehemently frustrating games.
What LA's defense has in terms of star power, it's completely lacking in it's ability to execute. Allowing 31.5 points per game, with an alleged defensive minded coach, plus some of the guys they have on that side of the ball, is completely mind boggling. And if the Vikings can do one thing, it's score, lending some pessimism to this matchup.
Kirk and the boys are back at one o'clock, now featuring running back Cam Akers. Feels like the slightest of upgrades over Alexander Mattinson, not a needle mover overall. Justin Jefferson though, should cook this secondary. He could make NFL history Sunday if he records over 150 receiving yards, in what'd be his third consecutive game doing so. Jordan Addison will be a strong secondary receiver, with TJ Hockenson contributing as well. Big day ahead for Minnesota's offense.
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| Photo: Cooper Neill/ Getty Images |
Poor Justin Herbert. Outside of his bank account, it's a really tenuous situation he has to deal with out in Los Angeles-- weapons with injury issues, a nonexistent defense and a coach known for fucking things up. But hey, he signed the contract. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams should have nice games against a bad group of cornerbacks. Maybe first rounder Quentin Johnston will finally show up too??
There's no reason the Chargers should lose this game; therefore... Hit the over and the Vikings money line. Brandon Staley's seat is boiling.
New England Patriots (-2.5) at New York Jets
Don't waste your time popping this one onto your TV. There's virtually no way it's going to be entertaining.
Mac Jones is going to be bad, Zach Wilson's going to be worse. The running backs might have a little bit of wiggle room, but don't expect much numbers anywhere.
I'm not saying this is going to be a 10-3 walk-off punt situation, but points will be at a premium. No matter how low the under is, it's worth consideration. Bill Belichick will will the Patriots to beat the Jets too, some way or another.
Buffalo Bills (-6.5) at Washington Commanders
The Bills travel down to Washington after the ultimate get-right game against Las Vegas. Oddsmakers seem to think they shouldn't have too much trouble in this upcoming matchup either, but I'm not so sure I agree with that.
Washington boasts a legit defense, so Josh Allen's going to need to mind his P's and Q's. Their defensive line in particular is very disruptive, which'll allow us to see some of the Bills QB's improv skills in action.
Emmanuel Forbes vs. Stefon Diggs will provide some great smack talk as they battle all afternoon. Buffalo's WR1 has been cooking through these first two weeks, could be a tough day for the 16th overall pick. Gabe Davis made a statement last week as well, right about the same time that rookie Dalton Kincaid ramped things up. Contributions from all three would go a long way. James Cook could have a modest day, especially if they sustain an early lead, but this is always an unpredictable backfield.
Sam Howell flexed for the people of Denver in Washington's crazy comeback victory in the Mile High. He's got to bring that same energy back home against a Bills team that'll put up points at a much faster clip. Similar to Allen, I think we'll see the quarterback scrambling around a decent bit due to pressure from the D line, which kind of plays to the strengths of Howell.
With Tre'Davious White likely squaring off against Terry McLaurin majority of the snaps, it feels like this is the Jahan Dotson game many of us have been waiting for. The second year wideout hasn't delivered on his preseason hype early. Curtis Samuel will continue to be a safety valve underneath.
Brian Robinson was awesome last week, but outside of Breece Hall's 83-yard scamper, this Buffalo run defense has been stingy. If the Commanders keep it close, expect a ton of Robinson as they try to control the clock. If not, he'll be phased out for Antonio Gibson early.
Let's take the over on this game! Something tells me it's going to have some real head scratching moments and unorthodox plays en route to a high score. Also thinking, as of right now, that Washington covers...don't think Buffalo loses though. Maybe like a 28-23 situation?
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-9.5)
Expecting big days for both quarterbacks down in Duval for this AFC South scrap. CJ Stroud and the Texans have trailed for much of the season, forcing him into a ton of passing. That should be about the script on Sunday against a Jaguars offense looking to get right after being held out of the end zone versus Kansas City.
Nico Collins has been and will be a main benefactor of the increased passing volume. He's currently got the fifth most receiving yards in the league, really emerging in his third year out of Michigan. Plenty of balls to go around though versus this bad Jacksonville defense, putting Robert Woods, Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz in spots to be productive too.
Dameon Pierce might show up this year right? Running behind the second string offensive line isn't good for any running back, but it's been a futile effort through two.
Derek Stingley Jr. is doubtful to go, opening a big hole in the cornerback room for Houston. Trevor Lawrence is going to take advantage, as will Calvin Ridley and/or Christian Kirk. Both have alternated explosions and duds to start the season, as Jags fans hope this is the weekend they click simultaneously.
Travis Etienne should have plenty of room to rumble on the ground against an iffy run D that won't be able to stack the box. Nice day ahead for him.
Give me the over and the Jaguars to win, probably covering in the process.
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)
Gardner Minshew's coming to town, with rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson officially out due to a concussion. It's a disappointing development; we're really hoping he can discover a balance between his physical playing style and remaining healthy, because he's looked awesome in a small sample size.
Minshew balled out against Houston and now gets some Baltimore corners that just tamed Ja'Marr Chase, but aren't that good in reality. He shouldn't dice up this defense, but he's going to make some big plays to frustrate the home crowd. Of which I'll be in attendance.
Lamar Jackson and this Ravens' offense though, not to be taken lightly. Gus Edwards ran powerfully in a timeshare with Justice Hill, but now will have a bigger chunk of that load with Hill out. Kenyan Drake was brought in as depth, but the Bus is driving this backfield.
Zay Flowers is a bona fide star, Mark Andrews is back healthy, and Rashod Bateman as a pretty solid third option, with OBJ set to sit out. It's going to be a pick your poison for Todd Monken and Lamar against this shaky Indianapolis defense.
Don't get it twisted, Gardner Minshew is capable of muddying up this game. I think he can spoil the spread, but no way Baltimore loses this one at M&T. Leaning toward the over, but the nasty weather forecast has me unsure.
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)
Andy Dalton time! Making his big Panthers debut in the Pacific Northwest against a Seahawks team that's juiced up off a big overtime victory. Tough break for the ginger quarterback.
Not expecting a masterpiece of a performance from this Seattle offense. DK's ribs are ailing, which could legitimately park him on the sideline Sunday evening. Throw in a pretty solid Carolina pass defense and this just isn't a pretty matchup for Geno.
Kenneth Walker should get some good work in on the ground though. It's going to be nasty, rainy weather and the Panthers are a little more susceptible against the run game. Look for Walker to be a workhorse.
The quarterback situation downgrades an already pretty sad group of weapons for the Panthers. This Seahawks D should have favorable matchups almost across the board skill player-wise, opening up the door for some turnovers.
No way Carolina win this game, but the shitty weather could make a cover interesting. But you can safely bet the under and Seattle money line, and kick back 'til your winnings to roll in.
Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs (-13.5)
Justin Fields isn't getting benched for Tyson Bagent, at least not this early in the season, but his body of work has been concerning thus far, to put it lightly. Now he has to go into Arrowhead to face a Chiefs team that's playing really strong defense at all three levels. Not my idea of a fun time.
For those stuck with DJ Moore in fantasy, the Bears will probably be playing from behind much of this game, so the volume could be there, in theory. Also assuming their robotic quarterback doesn't miss him streaking down the middle of the field. The running back situation is murky at best, with Chris Jones waiting to introduce himself to whoever handles the carries.
Another week of healing will only bring out a better Travis Kelce. He's going to be fired up for his first home game after catching a touchdown in Jacksonville. He may not stop at just one against this poor Chicago defense. Isiah Pacheco is less then 100%, maybe opening up some looks for Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Hard to predict any big numbers from this group though, unless you're name's Patrick or Travis.
Chiefs with ease at home, maybe allowing Chicago to pull a back door cover late? Kansas City loves to not cover spreads, and 13.5 is a prime line to sneak under.
Dallas Cowboys (-12.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Like the aforementioned game, no need to delve too deep into an underdog plot line here. Arizona's been scrappy all season, but Dallas is just superior on so many levels. Tony Pollard's the safest play, since he should be getting a ton of volume, but CeeDee Lamb will roast the Cardinals some too. The rest of the offense is a crap shoot, especially if the defense cuts their fields down or puts up points of their own.
On the flip side, big test ahead for rookie Paris Johnson against Micah Parsons. At a minimum, it's going to be a real learning experience. James Conner's been better than I gave him credit so far this year, so he could provide a relative surprise. Josh Dobbs and his pass catchers though will be thoroughly stifled.
I'll actually hit the under in Glendale, with Dallas winning and covering on the road. Too much defense on big D for the Cards to overcome.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5)
The Steelers are coming off a dramatic, defense-driven victory over the Browns Monday night, while the Raiders are coming off an absolute ass kicking at the hands of the Buffalo Bills. Two very different vibes in the locker rooms right now.
Jimmy G, although my guy, looked bad in Orchard Park, stagnating the offense pretty thoroughly-- outside of the first drive. Pittsburgh's defense is built pretty similarly, with a tremendous upgrade in TJ Watt on the line. Better draw up some roll outs now Coach McDaniels.
Josh Jacobs has been atrocious on the ground, but finally faces an opponent he should have some room against. Pittsburgh's given up an eye popping 193 YPG rushing so far, a number that should regress eventually? Not before Jacobs has a nice performance though.
Davante Adams is pretty matchup proof, but obviously has better days when his quarterback's playing well. Double digit catches for 100+ yards is definitely in play for him.
Is this Kenny Pickett's breakout game? Vegas doesn't have nearly as imposing a defense as Cleveland or San Francisco, meaning it's time for the second year guy to show something. If not...shew, hang on Yinzers. No Diontae Johnson doesn't help his case, but they weren't really clicking anyway. Lots of looks for George Pickens ahead, with Calvin Austin likely seeing an uptick underneath.
Najee Harris will be fed 12-15 carries, possibly producing a 4.0 YPC clip, if he's really in his zone. Jaylen Warren may begin seeing some increased work with how quick he looked with the ball against the Browns. That timeshare has to be coming.
Sorry Jimmy, but I've got to roll with the Steelers here. Can't get to .500 on the year without taking care of the cupcakes, which is exactly what the Raiders are. Tomlin could probably outcoach McDaniels with a varsity squad.
Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (MNF)
If you told me two weeks ago that I'd be seriously considering taking Tampa Bay over Philly on Monday Night Football, I'd have asked for a hit of whatever's in your pipe. But here we are in week three.
The Eagles look outstanding for stretches, then have either gotten complacent or just failed to counter their opponents adjustments, allowing games to get unreasonably close late. Perhaps they're experiencing some growing pains from the departure of their two coordinators.
The Bucs have a good run defense, which'll stifle whoever takes the lead dog role in the Philadelphia backfield. It also will put more of an emphasis on Jalen Hurts' play, as they'll need him to be sharp to get this win. On paper, AJ Brown and Devonta Smith have plus matchups, but it might be time to stop sleeping on Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean at cornerback. They're no pushovers.
Baker Mayfield needs to be smart against this opportunistic D if he wants to play spoiler. His immediate connection with Chris Godwin, and particularly Mike Evans, has been super encouraging for Tampa fans. Of all situations to walk into, can't think of many better 1-2's for a cast off quarterback. They should continue to beat on the Eagles corners, as Minnesota/New England's receivers already have.
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| Photo: The Pewter Report |
Rachaad White having an efficient day would go a long way in keeping this stacked, aggressive defensive front honest. A busy screen game with some misdirection will help the offense stay unpredictable and keep Baker's jersey clean.
I'm not sure I'm ready to jump into upset mode yet, but give me Tampa to cover. I need to see Philadelphia put together a signature performance this season before I just anoint them as a team who'll just walk into Raymond James Stadium and smoke a scrappy Bucs team in primetime.
Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) (MNF)
We wrap up week three in Cincinnati with a big question: who's going to be under center for the Bengals? It sure feels like Joe Burrow shouldn't be out there-- whether he is or isn't we'll find out.
Regardless of who the quarterback is, I don't care for Cincy in this matchup. Aaron Donald's going to be a game wrecker on the interior line, limiting Joe Mixon in the run game, while forcing Burrow or Browning to roll out or make throws with pressure in their face. Not a fun proposition I'd imagine for somebody with a calf injury.
LA's far surpassed expectations early, coming off a game where they played the super team 49ers relatively close. Matthew Stafford looks rejuvenated, Puka Nacua has transformed into Cooper Kupp and Kyren Williams should be a pretty good running back, now that he's not having to split time with Cam Akers. I like this unit against a shotty Bengals defense.
Get your bets in on the Rams now while they're still plus money. That line will shift pretty drastically if/once Jake Browning is named starter. Take the under too
Records on the season:
17-15 ATS
22-10 SU
16-16 O/U
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, just my opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
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