We. Are. Back.
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| Photo: Joe Maiorana/ USA Today |
What a long offseason that was. Betting on baseball just doesn't have that same feel as our NFL. But it's here, and it's here to stay for eighteen weeks and the playoffs. It's a beautiful thing y'all. Let's talk turkey.
Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) (Thursday 9/7)
This line shifted some during the early part of the week with news of Travis Kelce hyperextending his knee. He was listed as questionable heading into Thursday, a tag that loomed large over the Chiefs' faithful.
Luckily, if any quarterback can improvise and salvage a situation, it'd be Patrick Mahomes. He's gonna get his. It seems like he'll have all of his modest group of receivers at his disposal, with Ka'Darius Toney getting in some limited work at practice. Feels like a busy day ahead for the KC running backs though, pounding the rock with Pacheco and getting McKinnon involved in the short passing game-- both are worth a look fantasy-wise.
On the Lions side of things, expect a lot of Amon-Ra St. Brown. Chris Jones may not be on the field, due to his contract situation, and the Chiefs secondary isn't 100%. That means a lot of time in the pocket for Jared Goff and time to find open space for St. Brown. In a game that's expected to be high scoring, those two should be driving forces.
Excited for the debut of Jahmyr Gibbs too. I'm thinking with David Montgomery in the mix, we'll see Gibbs more involved in the passing game early, plus like 8-10 carries. But I could be wrong, they picked this kid at 12 for a reason and may want to ride him.
I honestly liked the Detroit Lions prior to the Kelce injury news. Their revamped secondary is underrated and won't struggle as much against Kansas City as many expect. They should move the ball with relative ease offensively too, especially if Jones does sit out. Give me the Lions outright Thursday night, and I think it never really feels in doubt.
*The section above was typed Thursday morning, score prediction posted to Instagram
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
Bryce Young's long awaited debut, and fortunately for him it's against a team known for it's inability to rush the passer. Should definitely be a cleaner pocket then the shit he was dealing with in the preseason. Miles Sanders should get a ton of work to keep the offense balanced and take some pressure off the rookie QB.
Adam Thielen and DJ Chark are each a little banged up, potentially opening the door for Jonathan Mingo or Laviska Shenault to make a small splash. Not the easiest matchups for the receivers though, squaring off with AJ Terrell and Jeff Okudah all afternoon, assuming the latter is cleared to play. Hayden Hurst will likely be a safety blanket underneath for Young.
Big debut on the Falcons' side of things too, for #8 pick Bijan Robinson. The explosive runner from Texas is set to shoulder a massive load in this run game, with Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson as more than competent substitutions. A healthy rushing attack is the primary way this offense should be able to sustain success with Desmond Ridder under center. Solid player, won't make many mistakes, but won't win you many games either.
Drake London did show good chemistry with Ridder down the stretch in '22, which should carry over to this year. He'll be doing battle with Jaycee Horn for a lot of Sunday. Kyle Pitts will have some tough matchups as well against a stingy Panthers' linebacking core. I feel like we'll see a big play downfield out of Scotty Miller or Mack Hollins too, break in one of the new guys on a go route.
Sorry Bryce, but I've got Atlanta winning this matchup. Home game, continuity at the major positions and some nice reinforcements in other areas make me think they're going to have just a little more than Carolina. Favoring the under too.
Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns
Will Joe Burrow play, and how close to 100% is he going to be, that's what this game's going to teeter on. Forgive me for not having the most confidence in Jake Browning to fill his shoes... Zac Taylor has been noncommittal thus far to his status, so keep an eye on that. Given his recent, massive extension though, I'd imagine we'll see #9 out there.
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| Photo: Jeff Dean/ AP |
Not a big Joe Mixon fan, but Orlando Brown Jr. is a positive addition at left tackle, so he may have some more consistent success this year. Chase Brown and Chris Evans are decent depth pieces, but probably not threats to take the driver's seat. The Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd trio though, that's where this offense is going to hum. Tough assignments for Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome II on the outside.
The Browns started to look a little better the last few weeks of 2022 with under Deshaun Watson under center, after a really rocky transition back from suspension for the massage enthusiast. A whole offseason to work with OC Alex Van Pelt and his weapons should help him at least regain some of his former competency at the position. Being able to hand the ball off the Nick Chubb 20+ times doesn't hurt either though. He's the best runner in football, who's going to get his touches against Cincy-- a team he's averaged 5.1 YPC against in his career.
Elijah Moore's first game in a Browns' uniform should make for a fun storyline. He strengthens a receiving core that was steadily productive in 2022, despite up and down quarterback play. In a game where they may need to score to keep pace, expect that he and Amari Cooper will be seeing a nice chunk of targets. Donovan Peoples-Jones and David Njoku should be good for a big first down conversion or two throughout also.
Not totally buying Joe Burrow's level of health right now, which obviously has a major impact on this prediction. With it also being a divisional game, in Cleveland, let me get the Browns in a close one here. And the under, a lot of ground game to kill the clock.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5) at Indianapolis Colts
An anticipated season for Trevor Lawrence takes off against a really favorable opponent and in the Lucas Oil dome, optimal conditions for an explosion. And that's exactly what T-Law's going to do to the Colts, all afternoon Sunday. I'd be lying if I said the state of their offensive line wasn't a slight red flag, squaring off against a solid Indy D-line, but I trust Doug Pederson to put his young QB in spots to shine.
Loved Travis Etienne coming into the year, and still think he has a high ceiling, but look out for Tank Bigsby in this one, whose angry running style would help to bruise up the aggressive lineman opposite him. Both backs should produce fair lines. We'll get our first look at Calvin Ridley in this offense too. He and Christian Kirk are a dynamic pairing that'll help Lawrence do whatever he wants against some weak corners. Evan Engram may not be so fortunate, with a lot of Shaquille Leonard in his future.
Big day in the life of Anthony Richardson coming up; his first NFL start. Luckily for him, the Jaguars have a really bad defense that he should be able to exploit with his arm and legs. If he plays semi-clean football, there could be some big numbers put up here.
Deon Jackson heading the backfield is uninspiring, but he's going to get a ton of volume. Zack Moss is questionable, but maybe even less exciting as he works his way back from a broken arm. Kind of a fun group of receivers though, with Michael Pittman Jr. being the stand out. Alec Pierce is a big body that has to be accounted for in the red zone, and Josh Downs is one of my favorite under-the-radar rookies in the slot. None have difficult assignments in this one.
As long as Anthony Richardson doesn't completely stagnate the Colts, this over should cash with ease. I'll take the Jaguars winning too, but need a little more time to consider a spread that's slowly shifting toward Indianapolis.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5)
It's going to be weird seeing Baker Mayfield taking command of this Buccaneers offense, but here we go. The wannabe gunslinger should have plenty of opportunities to toss the ball around against a Vikings team that's going to put up points. It might not always be pretty, but the volume should facilitate some numbers.
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are a premier duo out wide that'll feast against an unimpressive secondary, if their quarterback can put the ball where it needs to be. Cade Otton may be a safety valve, but the passing game is going to run through those two horses. Rachaad White is in line to be Tampa's lead back, but the forecast isn't an ideal game script for him.
Death, taxes, and 1 PM Kirk Cousins versus subpar teams. Dude's going to cook, especially now that Dalvin Cook is out of town. Alexander Mattinson just isn't the same rusher, plus their interior line is pretty bad. He's going to run into Vita Vea a lot.
Big days ahead for Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison though! The former is pretty much assumed at this point, but Addison is primed to fill a pretty nice target share voided by Adam Thielen. With JJ taking the top cover guys off of him, the rookie from USC could be in line for a huge performance. TJ Hockenson rules, but Devin White isn't a fun linebacker to deal with all afternoon. Modest day ahead for him as Cousins funnels the ball to the perimeter.
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| Photo: NFL.com |
The Vikings will not lose this game, not at one o'clock, so you can lock that in for sure. The over of 45.5 is my favorite of the week however. Two bad defenses, two talented offenses and a relatively low number...if it's a trap then it's caught me. Hammer that.
Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
Could be an ugly one down in NOLA. Seeing Derek Carr in gold and black is going to be strange, but he has a nice draw against this shaky Titans' secondary. With Chris Olave and Michael Thomas at his disposal, the Saints' new quarterback should stack some numbers, as long as his offensive line keeps a ferocious pass rush at bay. Juwan Johnson is a nice play too at tight end.
Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller will head the backfield against the top run defense in 2022. Don't think either are going to do much with the opportunity in this difficult matchup; hopefully you're not relying on either for fantasy.
As weird as it'll be to see Carr in New Orleans, Deandre Hopkins in Tennessee is going to be mind blowing. Marshon Lattimore is going to do everything in his power to make it a tough afternoon for the star receiver. The presumed play from Ryan Tannehill won't help matters either. Dennis Allen coaches up a defense right and should have a nice plan in mind to stymy the average quarterback.
With King Henry at the reigns, the ground game should be able to get going with no issue. Twenty five carries should be almost the baseline here. If Mike Vrabel can stick to that consistently throughout the game, they'll be in a position late to be able to take it.
But I'll take the Saints, stealing a gross game at home. Take the under and Tennessee covering 3.5, see this one coming down to a field goal.
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
What do ya say Brock Purdy? With Trey Lance no longer in the picture, there remains no doubt that he's the QB1 for this Niners squad. Tough draw week one though, travelling cross country to face a defense that's got some real studs on it. Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk vs. Joey Porter Jr. will be some fun scraps, while the other likely cooks Patrick Peterson. George Kittle seems in line for a nice day too.
Despite the talent in the passing game, Christian McCaffery's going to be the cornerstone of this offense. The three down running back is absolutely tailor made for Kyle Shanahan. The Steelers are a stiff bunch up front though, possibly forcing CMC to get his nut in the receiving game more than on the ground.
Kenny Pickett's been building up a lot of hype after a strong preseason, leaving Pittsburgh fans around the world anxiously awaiting game one of his sophomore campaign. Couldn't ask for a much tougher draw to kick things off than this San Francisco D, especially that front seven. If he can stay upright, there may be some exploitable matchups on the outside, but that's a big if. Quite a way for Broderick Jones to ring in his career, growing pains.
Najee Harris is about six weeks away from officially being labeled a plodder. I've been among many to give him the benefit of the doubt behind some rough offensive lines, but they're in an okay spot in that regard this year. If he can't get his YPC at least over four, it might be time to move on. We'll provide some grace for the opener though, the Niners are stingy on the ground.
Diontae Johnson and George Pickens will have a few openings against a more approachable secondary. Pat Freirmuth will have to be dealing with Fred Warner much of the day, and therefore won't be as fortunate. And if you forgot, Allen Robinson II is on the Steelers. Probably the biggest headline he'll make on the year right there.
Tough game from a gambling perspective. A cross country trip is tough for any team, especially to a hostile environment like Acrisure will be. Mike Tomlin's also 7-1-1 as a home underdog against the spread over the last five years. Take the Steelers to cover at least, leaning toward the mild upset as well.
Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders (-7.5)
Worst game of the week, just a gross one. With Josh Dobbs' arrival to the team being about two weeks ago, I'm curious how much of the playbook he even knows. James Conner will have a big workload and minimal running lanes against a tough front seven. Hollywood Brown will rack up 4-6 catches, maybe with a nice little scamper after one. But yeah, not many fireworks on the Cardinals' side of things.
The Sam Howell saga is a fun one to follow in Washington. The second year QB has the backing of all his teammates and a nice, weak defense to show off what he's made of week one. Mild expectations from Howell from a production standpoint, as this is a game they should be able to control with ground and pound and defense, but we're pulling for him to pass the eye test in Josh Harris' advent as owner.
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| Photo: David Richard/ AP |
Brian Robinson's going to have no less than fifteen carries, with Antonio Gibson spelling him for at least eight of his own. Terry McLaurin has committed to playing in this one, but ideally they get up early and let him limit his reps. Jahan Dotson breakout season though, look for him in the end zone Sunday.
Despite everything I feel, this game feels trappy. Like one of those games where the backup quarterback says, "fuck it" and accidentally goes off. Josh Dobbs running ability does provide a wildcard to boost that consideration. Washington shouldn't lose, but I'm not sure I'm touching them to win by over a touchdown. 38.5 is such a low under too, but worth consideration.
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-10.5)
So excited for this one. Lamar's healthy, happy and paid. He's got his best receiving core ever, Ronnie Stanley and JK are healthy and ready to roll. A lot of optimism. This is a challenging Texans secondary however, one that will make him pay for his mistakes. As a result, look for Jackson to distribute the ball around pretty evenly, trying not to key on anybody too long. He should have some scrambling lanes too as things break down.
The additions of Sheldon Rankins and Will Anderson will definitely help Houston against the run, an area where they were dead last in 2022. I'm not sure it'll be enough though against a motivated Ravens ground game. Dobbins and Gus Edwards will likely have a closer split to carries than fantasy managers would care to see, but should each hit 10-12. There should be space in the flats for either to work too.
Zay Flowers debut is an eagerly anticipated one. As mentioned above, I think it'll be a pretty even split across the board for receptions. OBJ, Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman-- they all should reel in four or more receptions. But I'm thinking the rookie is going to be a bit of a focal point in the game plan to announce his arrival to the city. Predicting 6/77/1 for the kid.
CJ Stroud's another guy playing for the first time in the NFL on Sunday. Unfortunately for him, it's against a team coached by John Harbaugh, who's 21-7 in his career against rookie quarterbacks. With Marlon Humphrey on the PUP list though, Stroud could have some looks outside against an incredibly pedestrian cornerback committee. As a Ravens fan, I'm expecting a few frustrating chunk plays. But Houston's wideouts aren't game breakers, making this one of the more manageable opponents we could ask for.
Three of the Texans' starting offensive lineman are set to miss this one, which doesn't bode well for Dameon Pierce at all. Really high on him long term, but with Jadaveon Clowney and Roquan Smith across from him, don't expect him to build up too many heads of steam.
Ravens win here, absolutely no doubt. I'm adjusting my spreads for it down to -9.5, but it could be ugly with the backup offensive line in. Feels like the over should play here too.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-1.5)
Jordan Love, it's finally your time. After years behind Aaron Rodgers, the spotlight is finally yours. And his top receiver Christian Watson's been ruled out...yikes. I didn't anticipate Matt LaFleur going with a pass-happy game plan regardless, but you want your WR1 out there. Don't set Love's bar too high. Romeo Doubs should be peppered with targets, while Jayden Reed is a deep sleeper for those in need (my Cooper Kupp owners out there).
Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are in for huge days, in the run and pass game. Chicago gave up the second most rushing yards a year ago, so there should be plenty of room to work there. With Watson sitting, they should each get a few snaps from the slot too. Very high ceilings for each.
But the Bears...is this Justin Fields time? Is DJ Moore the missing link? The two have played well together in extremely limited, useless snaps-- but it certainly beats the alternative. Jaire Alexander is a tough draw for their first official go round, and Rasul Douglas has been rejuvenated at the opposite cornerback spot since coming to Green Bay. Throw in a pretty deep, talented front seven and I see a lot of scrambling in the forecast for Fields.
That's a way the Bears can win though, especially if the running backs chip in. The Packers were also bad against the run in '22, potentially setting Khalil Herbert and D'Onta Foreman up for some nice yardage. It seems like Herbert's the lead dog, but it wouldn't be surprising if it evolves into a full time committee, with rookie Roshon Johnson getting in on the action too.
Definitely an interesting divisional bout, not a play I'll likely be making on many of my cards. I really want to roll with Chicago, but my gut's telling me the Packers pull it out in a tight, mucky game to retain their ownership of the Bears. Not a confident choice.
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-4.5)
This whole Chandler Jones situation has put an odd aura around the Raiders this week, really hoping the man's okay. The team will surely welcome the game as a positive distraction, in the form of a Mile High showdown. Jimmy Garoppolo's first action donning silver and black is against one of the tougher secondaries the league has to offer. Patrick Surtain II vs. Davante Adams is going to be must watch TV. I don't think either Raider will have eye popping days.
Josh Jacobs is going to have a busy afternoon, with no less then twenty carries on deck in attempts to soften up the defense and set up the play action. He's historically played well against Denver, which I expect to continue. Jakobi Meyers will likely put up a workmanlike line and I'm excited to see Michael Mayer's usage.
Is Sean Payton the guy to revive Russell Wilson? Word of the coach telling his embattled quarterback to stop kissing babies didn't sound like the tone you want to hear. Definitely what Russ needed to hear though... He didn't look good last year though, so I'm going to want to see a few good performances in a row before buying back in.
At least Las Vegas is a nice defense to break out the season with. Seems like Jerry Jeudy should be good to play, joining Courtland Sutton against an iffy set of corners. Nate Hobbs is solid, but Marcus Peters seemed a step slow last season with Baltimore. Very possibly could've been the ACL recovery, but he ain't getting any younger. The Broncos' receivers should have some open looks, if Wilson can find them.
Javonte Williams also seems set to return to the backfield, from an ACL tear of his own. Payton would be wise to integrate him and free agent signing Samaje Perine into the offense as much as possible; a game plan that seemed to benefit Wilson in Seattle. Each back should some room to run.
I like the Raiders in this game and will take them to cover with some confidence. But when it comes down to it, how could you not trust Sean Payton more than Josh McDaniels? I'll take Denver pulling it out in a close game.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at New England Patriots
This game feels a little bit trappy as well. I've seen a statistic that the loser of the previous Super Bowl has gone 9-16 since in week one over the last 25 seasons. Philly's too good to fall into that hole right? Will Jalen Hurts play as well under Brian Johnson as he did under Shane Steichen? He was incredible during his runner-up MVP campaign a year ago, and should only improve having had another offseason of work with AJ Brown, Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. I think all three will have big days through the air.
The running back position is interesting for the Eagles. Will any of them take control at any point in the year, or will it stay a four man committee? Between D'Andre Swift, Rashaad Penny, Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott, there's plenty of talent to ride the hot hand here. I don't expect any to produce significantly Sunday.
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| Photo: Mitchell Leff/ Getty Images |
Mac Jones is going to be battered like a country fried steak against this juggernaut of a defensive line. I could see him getting sacked five or more times, with an interception or two. Temper expectations for all of his weapons accordingly; Darius Slay and James Bradberry can lock it down too.
Rhamondre Stevenson was a late addition to the injury report Friday with an illness. Allegedly, it's not going to have any impact on him suiting up, but how close to 100% he'll be remains to be seen. With a healthy Jordan Davis at nose tackle across from him, not sure how much room there'll be to run.
Trends be damned, give me the Eagles to win this one. And I don't think it'll be particularly close. This isn't an impressive Patriots roster and it's going to show.
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5)
Maybe the most fun game of the week, the high flying Dolphins going to SoCal to face the Chargers. Tua's been cleared to play, and presumably should pick up right where he left off. LA has a really solid secondary, but you can only contain Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle so much. There'll be some fireworks from Miami's pass attack.
Raheem Mostert seems poised to be the workhorse, albeit to a lesser extent then expected, with Devon Achane and Salvon Ahmed being cleared to play. He should still rack up a dozen or more totes. Still very excited to see what Achane can bring to the table.
Justin Herbert's got his bag, now he's got actually take his team over the top. He gets the Dolphins' D at a good time with Jalen Ramsey unable to play, but it's still strong unit on all three levels. With all of his weapons at his disposal though, he should have a nice day in a shootout.
Miami's defense was tough against the run in 2022 and didn't lose anyone from that front seven. Austin Ekeler will find space in the run game at a premium, but should still tally some catches out of the backfield.
Expecting a high scoring affair here, so take the over. I like the Dolphins straight up too, with the spread being a true lock.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5)
Speaking of quarterbacks that got paid, Geno Smith's back for a second full tour in the Pacific northwest. He should shred this inexperienced Rams defense with a dynamic trio of receivers. DK Metcalf should have a bunch of catches, Tyler Lockett will bust a big play or two and Jaxon Smith-Njigba should join in on the fun as well. Air show impending.
With a presumptive lead for much of the game, Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet should get a nice bit of carries. Aaron Donald will definitely have a say in how productive they are though, too bad he'll be doing it alone.
The Seahawks gave up the second most yards to tight ends in 2022, so Tyler Higbee should be a frequent target of Matthew Stafford's. Not much to be excited for elsewhere, between Tutu Atwell and Van Jefferson. Cam Akers will get a bunch of carries as long as the game is close, but he won't do much with them.
Seahawks should have no problem at home here, don't think the Rams score enough to cover the over.
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at New York Giants
I'm not low on the Giants this year, but this is a draw I don't like for them. Darren Waller hitting the injury report late is sketchy, but I don't think Daniel Jones has any shortage of weapons. Stephon Gilmore and Trevon Diggs aren't going to give them a ton of space though. Not thinking Jones will have a great day through the air.
Saquon Barkley's going to be touching the ball early and often as the G-Men try and control the clock versus a potent Dallas attack. If he gets bottled up, it'll really limit their offense.
Dak's not my guy, but he's got some great receivers and a solid tailback behind him. It should be more then enough to take this one in the Meadowlands. CeeDee Lamb is going to break Deontae Banks into the league in a tough way, while Michael Gallup and Brandin Cooks chip in along the way. Tony Pollard shouldn't put up a bunch of rushing yards against a tough New York defensive front.
The Giants probably keep it interesting, but I like Dallas to win and cover. I like the over for some reason too, despite both defenses being pretty strong. We'll see!
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at New York Jets
Come on down Aaron Rodgers! Game one in the Meadowlands against the division rival Bills, should be an awesome game. The former Packers quarterback was pretty subpar last year, but this is a much more dynamic passing situation for him to enter. Couple it with a Nathaniel Hackett reunion, and just maybe, this could be a high octane group. Garrett Wilson szn on deck.
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| Photo: Mike Stobe/ Getty Images |
Curious how healthy of a Breece Hall we get in the opener. He was so good in limited action as a rookie...really adding a different dimension to this offense. Dalvin Cook is more then an adequate backup though. I think he'll get the bulk of the backfield work here, early on at least.
Josh Allen is so much fun, but things seem a bit tense between him and WR1 Stefon Diggs. I'd imagine the two can patch it out for the sake of winning, but Sauce Gardner will have something to say about what they can do this week. Gabriel Davis, Deonte Hardy and Khalil Shakir aren't an inspirng bunch behind him either. Like what Dalton Kincaid can bring to the offense; he and Dawson Knox could be productive over the middle of the field.
James, brother of Dalvin, Cook is going to be taking over the top dog role in the Buffalo backfield. He looked progressively stronger as the season rolled on, but I'm not confident how much usage he'll get from Ken Dorsey's play calling.
Very surprised the Jets are underdogs here, and I can't help but bite. A sucker's born every day right? I'll take the over too, both of these teams will want to step up under the bright lights.
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, just our opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
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