It's crazy to think we'll basically be 25% of the way through the NFL season by next Tuesday morning...it feels like it literally just started, yet it's slowly slipping through our fingers, like grains of sand. Hold on tight fans, we have a lot yet still to endure.
To week four we go, with a bunch of interesting divisional matchups on deck. Starting with a battle in the NFC North between...
Detroit Lions (-1.5) at Green Bay Packers (Thursday 9/28)
A win for Detroit in Lambeau would feel pretty symbolic of a changing of the guard within the division. Green Bay's taken the crown twelve of the last twenty seasons, with the Lions mustering none over that stretch. It does feel like the year for that to change...
With Jaire Alexander likely to miss this game, due to a back injury, Amon Ra St. Brown is poised to have a monster performance. And when a safety comes over the top to help, boom! Sam LaPorta's going to be open and waiting in the middle of the field. I think Jared Goff's going to have a nice showing here.
Jahmyr Gibbs will get his second crack at lead dog in the backfield, after he more than doubled his career total in carries and yards last Sunday in the same role. The Packers' run defense is pretty shaky, so the rookie should have some room to rumble.
Love Jordan Love though, who'll be looking to carry over his momentum from a strong fourth quarter against New Orleans. Christian Watson and/or Aaron Jones availability wouldn't hurt the first year starter, but he'll make due in their absence with Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave.
The Lions surprisingly have a top five run D, and AJ Dillon's washed, so if Jones doesn't play, look elsewhere for your RB3/flex spot.
Detroit's game to lose here against a banged up Green Bay squad. I'll take them covering and the under too, as they stake their claim as the top team in the NFC North.
*The section above was typed Thursday morning, score prediction posted to Instagram
Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5)
First London game of the year! Man, I cannot wait to eat breakfast and watch football, during the Toy Story-cast no less! This game...could be fun.
The Falcons need to bounce back after getting thoroughly worked by Detroit, and what better get right spot then against this terrible Jags defense. They won't put up 37 like Houston just did, but they're certainly not going to be stuck at 6 for a second straight week. Drake London should have a productive day while Desmond Ridder performs modestly. Bijan should get his dozen or more touches too, if Atlanta wants this game to be competitive.
Jacksonville should be embarrassed, with a full on sense of urgency after their 1-2 start. Expectations were sky high in the preseason only to come crashing down over the last two games. They're in a week enough division that they could recover from 1-3, but it'd be indicative of much larger issues in the interim.
Trevor Lawrence needs to settle down and consistently locate his talented pass catchers. Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk and Evan Engram are a more than capable trio, Trevor's just got to get them the ball. When he can't, let Travis Etienne rumble on the ground some. The Clemson product's been steadily chugging along this year, despite some inopportune game scripts.
Two flawed teams squaring off across the Atlantic, just the kind of thing the NFL likes to send overseas. I don't like the -3.5 line for Jacksonville, but I have a hard time seeing them falter in their home away from home. Take the Jags, take the Falcons to cover and the under.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
Game of the week here, with AFC East supremacy on the line!
First off, really nice for Miami to get this trip up to Buffalo out of the way early in the season. Nobody wants to play in Orchard Park in December, but a team from South Beach? Forget about it.
Tua didn't put up crazy numbers against New England, but still managed to do enough to pull out the road win. I expect a similar game script here. The Bills' have a legit defense, currently allowing just 9.7 points per game. Granted that was against the Jets, Raiders and Commanders, but we'd be talking shit if they didn't dominate those teams. Tough assignment for Tagovailoa.
Very excited to see the timeshare between Raheem Mostert and Devon Achane. The former has done absolutely nothing to lose the starting role, but how can you keep a kid on the bench when he's averaging eleven yards per carry?
On the Bills' side of things, it's going to be a lot of Stefon Diggs, as usual. With Jalen Ramsey out, Allen should have minimal issue finding his top wideout early and often. James Cook should have some room to work against a Miami defense that's given up some yardage on the ground. The second year player's been a steady piece of this offense through the first three weeks.
It just feels like the Dolphins' time in the AFC East. If that is indeed the case, this is the game to make such a statement. A road win against their top competition within the division would have them sitting real pretty for the foreseeable future. Gimme Miami to get the win! And a high point total that actually hits the over.
Denver Broncos (-3.5) at Chicago Bears
Win or go home. Two sad, winless, disappointments going toe to toe at Soldier Field. Surely you have more important things to do with your Sunday then watching this game, right?
In theory, Justin Fields should post some nice numbers against this bottom ranked defense, whether it be with his arm or legs. The reality...will probably not be quite as rosy. Dude has more picks then touchdowns and has just radiated incompetence to begin 2023. If he can't figure it out in this one, or at least show some progress, then he may be done in Chicago.
Temper expectations for the rest of the offense accordingly. These running backs are average at best, DJ Moore's ceiling can only be so high with the QB situation, with nobody else really even worth monitoring outside of that. Any skill player here would be a volatile pick for fantasy/DFS.
Luckily for Denver, they're going up against another bottom five defense. As much shit as I talk on Russell Wilson, and it's plentiful, he's actually been pretty good this season. He should have the Broncos putting up points at a minimum. Perhaps a Bear minimum of 35.3, the amount of points per game Chicago's currently allowing. And Matt Eberflus is allegedly a defensive coach? Woof.
Javonte Williams should have a good showing, as should many of these Broncos' receivers against a Swiss cheese secondary. I'm not totally convinced it'll add up to a win yet, but I do like the over in the Windy City. This is going to be a defensive disaster.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
I just need to keep telling myself that Lamar Jackson's like 14-1 as an underdog, some optimism going into a tough matchup against the best defense in the last twenty years. At least through three weeks*
As daunting an opponent as Cleveland's D is, the Ravens health may be their primary challenger. The perpetually banged up franchise had Ronnie Stanley, Tyler Linderbaum, Gus Edwards and Marcus Williams all practice this week, a tremendous development, particularly the top two names on that list. With how Myles Garrett's been playing, Baltimore needs it's top offensive linemen out there.
Lamar needs to make better decisions with the ball too. Bottom line. The man is a playmaker to his core and 100% the reason Baltimore competes to the extent they do. But the mistakes are starting to glare and teams with defenses like Cleveland will feast on that. Hoping OBJ is back Sunday to round out the pass catching core, LJ8 definitely looks better with his full repertoire of weapons.
Last week was easily the best Deshaun Watson's looked for the Browns, but take it with a grain of salt versus a horrible Titans secondary. The Ravens really aren't rocking with a ton more at the cornerback position, so it could be another exploitable opportunity for him. Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore should be busy.
Jerome Ford should also have some space to work with in the run game against a D that just got gashed by Zack Moss. This should be a pretty good litmus test for what he can do.
This hurts as a Baltimore fan, but I'm just not super confident they win this week. For the sake of my pride, I probably won't bet this game, and think it should be a close one, but give me Cleveland at home.
Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans
Polarizing game to break down here. Tennessee's defensive line is a ferocious group that should put the Bengals offensive line on skates all afternoon. It's a major factor in my hesitation to pick against them.
Joe Burrow's health is another. On paper, he, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins should destroy the aforementioned Titans pathetic corners. But he looks so uncomfortably throwing the ball down field, it's just an incredibly unreliable proposition.
Joe Mixon's going to do nothing against Tennessee's front seven, Derrick Henry may have a little more success. But he's been slowly getting phased out of snaps for Tyjae Spears, in an odd development. Is it heightened trust in Spears? Or perhaps a sign that the coaches see King Henry on the decline? Time will tell here.
This is a game to avoid. I'll take the Titans to cover and Burrow to pull a win out of his ass late. Play limbo and lean under with me too.
Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
Anthony Richardson seems locked in and ready to go for Sunday, which is an exciting development for football as a whole. The rookie's been captivating in limited appearances thus far, leaving many craving to see more. The Rams have been pretty solid on both sides of the ball, which should make this a battle for all sixty minutes.
I'm not sure if Zack Moss will be able to run back his dominant showing from last week, but he should be able to help pace Indy's offense-- if he can avoid Aaron Donald. Richardson under center being able to threaten the RPO would help a lot with that.
Michael Pittman Jr. is going to be reliable no matter who's under center. Josh Downs seemed to benefit from Minshew's checkdown > scramble mindset, but he won't fall off too much if their quarterback of the future returns.
Matthew Stafford came crashing back to Earth a bit in the national spotlight last Monday, against a Cincinnati defense not to dissimilar to this Indianapolis version: a group with a disruptive defensive line and serviceable players throughout the second and third levels. If they collapse the pocket around Stafford, like they were able to against Lamar, then it could be a long day for LA's signal caller.
Kyren Williams should not only get some volume in the run game, but he should be able to work with it too. Don't set your expectations super high, but topping 100 total yards could be in play. Tyler Higbee's also primed for a busy afternoon, with the Colts allowing 55 yards a game tight ends. If he can hold down the middle of the field, it'll help open up opportunities outside for Tutu Atwell and Puka Nacua.
Feels like I'm really talking up the Rams, but I think I want to roll with Indianapolis here. Going back home, a little momentum, defense playing well. Smells like a Colts win.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
If you like scrappy games without a lot of scoring, then New Orleans is the place to be Sunday afternoon. These two teams are playing good defense while sputtering around offensively; could be a wonky one.
Jameis Winston has a high probability of suiting up against the organization that selected him #1 due to Derek Carr's AC joint injury. As fun and chaotic and lovable as that is, I'm not positive it'll translate to actual results on the field. You can look back to the fourth quarter in Lambeau to see what I'm talking about. Chris Olave and Michael Thomas should each have their opportunities though from the gunslinger.
Alvin Kamara's return is welcome to a running back room that was banged up and mediocre. He should be fresh off of this suspension and plug right into the backfield. Unfortunately for him, Tampa boasts a mean front seven, which'll make running room a premium. Jameis isn't known for his checkdowns either, making him a risky fantasy play.
Not a good bounce back spot for Baker Mayfield after a rough showing against the Eagles. He now has to deal with Marshon Lattimore squaring up opposite of his top wideout Mike Evans, perhaps literally as well as figuratively. Historically, that hasn't been fruitful for #13, so don't expect any eye popping numbers.
The points are set at 40.5, which feels fair-- this is going to be a dog fight. I'd probably tease that number a little higher then hit the under, but it's a considerable play as is. Hard game to pick too with the Saints QB situation, but give me New Orleans winning at home and the Bucs to cover 3.5.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5)
We could be in store for another really brutal display of quarterbacking by Sam Howell ahead. The aggressive Bills defense sacked him nine times and forced four interceptions, completely stymieing the second year QB. Philadelphia's D is assembled very similarly, with arguably more talent. Throw in a raucous crowd at the Linc-- forgive me for lacking confidence.
The Eagles have been beat through the air early in this season though, so there may be a route to success for Howell and his receivers. Terry McLaurin's floor should be around the 5/50, with Curtis Samuel likely busy as well, as the Commanders should be focusing on getting the ball out of their QB's hands quick. Jahan Dotson...where are you?
Bust of a day incoming for Brian Robinson too, Philly's allowing less than 50 yards per game on the ground currently.
Jalen Hurts and his offense have been really inconsistent through three weeks. They'll look unstoppable for a quarter or two, then just get stuck in neutral for extended periods of time-- with the occasional turnover to help out their opponents. There's too much talent to lower expectations for this group, but they need to clean it up.
Keep riding that D'Andre Swift train. He's rediscovered that Bulldog magic now that he's in Georgia North, taking 44 carries for 305 yards (6.9 YPC) since being given the reins to the backfield. Washington's pretty soft against the run, so that production's going to continue.
Eagles easily, plus the cover too. I think it'll be more like a 23-6 game rather than a 35-20, so take the under while you're at it.
Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers
Another battle of 0-3's for week three, this one going down in Charlotte. The Vikings are justified road favorites, having shown the ability to hang with some good teams. They just haven't been able to finish the job.
If Minnesota's offensive line can keep Kirk Cousins upright, he should have minimal issue against a Carolina secondary that's down Jaycee Horn. Justin Jefferson is uncontainable, just a matter of figuring out how the remaining passes will be split between TJ Hockenson, Jordan Addison and KJ Osborn.
Alexander Mattison will have a nice shot at an encore to his 93 yard breakout game last week, with the Panthers struggling to defend the run. But most of the damage will be through the air, per usual for the Vikes.
Seems like Bryce Young will be good to go under center, probably capping the potential of this Carolina offense. He just hasn't appeared confident at all, no thanks to a below average line. But I saw Andy Dalton play well enough in Seattle with this same group. Step up Bryce.
Miles Sanders is currently questionable, possibly missing an opportunity to finally rack up some rushing yards. Not money well spent thus far. Adam Thielen finally came through while working with Dalton, will it be his time to do so with their #1 pick? The Vikings secondary gives them at least a decent chance to make it happen.
Minnesota should definitely pull this one off to get their first win of the season and I think they'll cover too. This'll be close on the over/under too, depending how competent the Panthers' quarterback play is.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) at Houston Texans
CJ Stroud is giving off superstar vibes early on in his career, becoming the first quarterback ever to throw for over 900 yards and four TD's without an interception. When you watch him play, there's no reason to think it's a fluke either. Did Carolina make the wrong decision?
It'll be tough sledding though against this Pittsburgh front seven, especially with 80% of the offensive line, including Laremy Tunsil, already ruled out. You need to do yourself a favor and bet on a TJ Watt sack, it won't take long. It'd be wise for OC Bobby Slowik to get him in some moving pockets to buy time to find his weapons downfield.
Despite this defense being catastrophic at rushing the passer, they really don't contain the ground game well. Don't anticipate Dameon Pierce taking advantage, he hasn't looked explosive at all behind their patchwork line. Fire up Nico Collins and Tank Dell, with Robby Woods in flex consideration.
Kenny Pickett actually looked fairly confident under the bright lights of Sin City; a performance he should be able to back up. As usual, don't expect many contributions from Najee Harris, so the second year quarterback will have to get it done without much balance on offense. If they can keep Will Anderson off of him, there's matchups to exploit on the outside. Feeling a George Pickens TD at some point.
I really wanted to get caught in the moment and pick Houston here, but I have legitimate concerns about what TJ Watt's is going to be able to do. Single man wrecking crew against a backup line. Steelers won't lose that game. The spread's testy at -3.5 however.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5)
Two gross teams, one just happens to have a lot more talent.
That team, the Chargers, should absolutely roll Las Vegas at home. Jimmy G is playing bad, Josh Jacobs hasn't had room to run yet, Davante Adams is (justifiably) getting flustered, the defense sucks, Josh McDaniels is a clown, Keenan Allen's unstoppable, etc.
Therefore, this'll be tightly contested divisional battle, wire to wire. Jacobs has been a slow starter in recent years, but has historically had success against LA. If he gets going, it's going to make his quarterback's life a lot easier. And with Davante to throw the ball up to, shit's going to go down. Jakobi Meyers has been great for the Raiders too, we'll throw him some shine.
Every bit of logic in me is beaming with confidence in the Chargers to win this going away...but I'll take the Raiders to manage a cover. Brandon Staley's really likely to do something stupid.
New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)
There may not be a bigger egg laid all season than what the Cowboys put on the field down in Glendale. On paper, they're a highly superior roster to New England, but Bill Belichick is a fascinating X factor.
If you've been reading or listening, you know how low I am on Dak. Belichick just owns matchups like this against mediocre quarterbacks, finding a way to confuse them with coverages and blitzes. Not saying that's a guarantee to happen in this one, but it wouldn't be a surprising development at all.
The Pats are also good at stopping the run, giving up less than 100 per game on the ground. Not the most optimistic forecast for Tony Pollard. CeeDee Lamb and company should have some favorable matchups on the outside, if their QB can get it to them.
Mac Jones is hard to trust versus this star studded Dallas D, but the Cardinals showed a script on how they can be beaten a week ago. It's a plan New England could emulate, although with a little less mobility out of their quarterback. Rhamondre Stevenson should be productive, and you know Zeke's going to be amped up for a revenge game.
I'd like the Patriots a lot more if this was in New England, but this is kind of a "sound the alarm" game for either team if they lose. The exact kind of game Dak likes to choke in. I'm not sure I'm bold enough to take them outright, but I'll take the Pats to keep this within a touchdown.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-14.5)
How long do we keep counting the Cardinals out? They're clearly at a deficit in the talent department, but they just keep competing. It feels like midnight for this Cinderella though, if only for this week. San Francisco's just a different kind of devil compared to who they've played.
Josh Dobbs is going to be flushed out of the pocket regularly by a ferocious pass rush, while James Conner may finally be contained by the third ranked run D. Probably 98% of America was wrong last week in predicting this same thing, but there's no way Arizona's offense is going to have the juice to hang here.
Deebo isn't 100%, so the Niners would appreciate jumping out to an early lead to alleviate some of his work load. Christian McCaffery should gash the Cardinals front seven, while Brandon Aiyuk continues to show his connection with Brock Purdy. Look for George Kittle to catch his share of balls too.
Niners, easy little parlay addition on the money line. Arizona won't roll over, but they're not going to have enough to hang.
Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) at New York Jets
I understand there's rules and what not to when flex starts for primetime games...but Zach Wilson shouldn't be on Monday night.
Chiefs defense is playing well, Kelce's back, Patrick Mahomes is doing what he does. There's no way the Jets hang.
Chiefs win and cover. Cash the under too.
Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants (-1.5)
Very interesting Monday night tussle to wrap up week four. Both of these teams have had inconsistent stretches to start the year, with the Giants falling massively short of expectations thus far.
If Saquon Barkley even plays, he'll be far less then 100%. Not good for an offense that's really dependent on the tone he sets. Daniel Jones should have some time in the pocket to operate, possibly setting up Darren Waller for his breakout game in New York. The Seahawks aren't great against the tight end position.
On the flip side, Kenneth Walker will be pacing the way for Seattle. His showing against Carolina was his best of 2023 and the G-Men shouldn't offer much more resistance. It'll help Geno to find Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf a couple of times downfield, maybe even the first big play for Jaxon Smith-Njigba?
This game should be pretty ugly throughout, with a few splash plays to spice things up. I'll take Seattle to win and cover on the road, really righting their ship through the first quarter.
Records on the season:
23-25 ATS
31-17 SU
24-24 O/U
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@Choppinglines
*This is not gambling advice, just my opinions. Consider at your own risk
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
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