 |
| Photo: PlayUSA.com |
This time next Sunday, we'll be officially locking in our bets for the first Sunday slate of NFL action. Unbelievable levels of anticipation... Still some homework to be done on the earlier half of the week though, particularly into the futures bets.
If you've scrolled through any of those betting apps to try and peruse your options, you know the amount of choices can be extremely overwhelming. So I picked out some of my surest bets for player props and over/under team win totals to help speed up that process for y'all!
My Favorite Player Props
-Justin Herbert over 30.5 passing touchdowns -108 on FanDuel
He's gone over 30 touchdowns in two of the three years he's been in the league, probably only failing to last season due to some broken ribs. After signing a massive contract, it's time to show the world he's worth the money. Adding another deep threat in Quentin Johnston should only help too.
-Trevor Lawrence over 4050.5 passing yards -115 on Draft Kings
Thought it was weird that this prop wasn't on FanDuel. Regardless, I've put it on the record already, but I'm all in on Jacksonville this regular season. Lawrence will be the driving force of all of that. They play in arguably the worst division in football and get to play the NFC South, who'd be competing with the AFC South for the dishonor. The former #1 pick had 4,113 yards in an up and down sophomore campaign, but really shined as the season progressed. Another offseason with Doug Pederson and the addition of Calvin Ridley, this is a no brainer.
-AJ Dillon over 625.5 rushing yards -112 on FanDuel
Reports that Green Bay was trying to trade for Jonathan Taylor were very odd to me given their current running back situation. Would've felt more like a glutton than a luxury. The Packers RB1-B has put up 803 and 770 yards the last two seasons, and presumably should be in line to start taking even more work from Aaron Jones. This number feels very, very low; hammer it.
 |
| Photo: Dan Powers/ USA Today |
-Isaiah Pacheco over 775.5 rushing yards -115 on Draft Kings
This one feels like more of a gut pick than a lock, but Pacheco's increased usage throughout last season gives me a lot of optimism. The rookie racked up a modest 170 carries, but 126 of them came in the second half of the year, showing that the coaching staff trusts him in big moments and are willing to ride him on the ground. Those carries translated into 830 rushing yards. He should have over 200 totes an offense that'll never be out of a game, no reason to think he can't top his previous career best.
-Elijah Moore over 575.5 receiving yards -110 on Draft Kings
A lot of hype's followed the former Jet during his two years in the league, and he hasn't really delivered on it consistently. At worst, he'll be the third option in this passing game, but I think he and Watson will really click. Cleveland's WR2 Donovan Peoples-Jones had 839 yards in 2022, leading one to think Moore could at least be in that range.
-Chris Olave over 1025.5 receiving yards -112 on FanDuel
As a rookie, Olave had 1,042 receiving yards, with the likes of Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston throwing him the ball. I don't love Derek Carr, but he's a lot better than those two. Olave should be closer to 1,500 than 1K.
-Mike Evans over 60.5 receptions -112 on FanDuel
Mike Evans has only had two seasons in his career with total receptions in the 60's, one of which was his rookie year. Both only consisted of 16 game schedules too. I expect the Buccaneers will be playing from behind a good bit, so there'll be a lot of opportunities for #13 to rack up receptions. Baker may suck, but he'll at least try to throw the ball around. Evans will catch enough to clear this bar, or maybe even get traded to a better QB??
Favorite Four to Go Over on Wins
Weirdly enough, all four of the teams I'm taking the overs on have their win totals set at 9.5.
The Dallas Cowboys should have no problem getting to the double digits. As much of a non-believer as I am in Dak, there's enough talent in Big D to get it done. Tony Pollard is a monster, the trio of Lamb-Cooks-Gallup is a very strong one, Trevon Diggs and Stephon Gilmore on the corners plus Micah Parsons. Easy cover. -162 on FanDuel
Photo: Instagram/ @_micahparsons11
After posting nine wins a year ago, the Detroit Lions made some big improvements to their worst area: the secondary. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and Cameron Sutton will limit opposing wideouts, giving extra time for Aidan Hutchinson and Charles Harris to get after the QB. Playing the NFC South and in a weakened division overall makes me think they have what it takes to tack at least one more win to their '22 total. -122 on FanDuel
Moving to the AFC for these next two, starting with the Jacksonville Jaguars. They're in the weakest division in the league and are also slated to face the entire NFC South. Ten games against opponents who I don't suspect to be very good right there. With this ascending offense, I'm supremely confident in this play here. -144 on FanDuel
Our last squad hit that's hitting the over are the New York Jets. This feels so bandwagon as I type it up, and I'm not fully convinced Aaron Rodgers has another MVP caliber year in him, but damn if he doesn't have one of the more stacked teams around him to facilitate it. Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard are a solid 1-2 at receiver, Breece Hall and the recently signed Dalvin Cook should deliver a ton of punch in the backfield, and they may have the top defense in the NFL. Really just a top notch roster.
They somehow won seven games with Zach Wilson and Mike White a year ago, they will absolutely add three or more onto it. -122 on FanDuel
Hit the Under!
It's got to be hard going from Tom Brady under center to the Baker Mayfield/Kyle Trask quarterback platoon. Nauseating. But that's where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are right now. They've got an elite receiving core and a few good guys on defense, but the quarterback play is going to be a severe limitation. Second Team All-Pro linebacker Devin White already asked to be traded this offseason, although he walked back the request. Something tells me he won't be 100% on board if things start going south. An easy schedule and a few upper echelon players make this a risky play, but I don't see them covering 6.5 wins. -142 on FanDuel
 |
| Photo: Getty Images |
Josh Dobbs at quarterback for foreseeable future makes the Arizona Cardinals' forecast a sketchy one. Hollywood Brown, Greg Dortch and Rondale Moore aren't a scary set of weapons for him to work with either. It may not even end up being a situation worth coming back to for Kyler Murray by the time he's cleared, the sake of his long term health. 4.5 wins is such a low number, but the Cards are going to stay below it. Also going for -142 on FanDuel
The naming of first rounder Anthony Richardson as the starting QB actually makes the Indianapolis Colts a little more interesting, rather than toiling under Gardner Minshew for a few weeks until the inevitable change. Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr are nice weapons, and I think fellow rookie Josh Downs is a real fantasy sleeper, but their new QB is going to have too many mistakes for them across the full schedule. Give me them under 6.5 wins. -104 on FanDuel
A talented New Orleans Saints defense and the mediocrity of Derek Carr should keep this team competitive through most games. Unfortunately, it'll be that same mediocrity at the quarterback position that'll keep them under 9.5 wins. The man just seems to choke in big moments far too often, and despite being in a week division, I just don't see them getting to double digit victories. -140 on FanDuel
This is not gambling advice, simply offering you a seat on the ride over to the bank. Let us know your thoughts!
------
@Choppinglines
*I own no rights to any images found in this blog
Comments
Post a Comment